Should there be a Limit on # of residency programs you can apply to?

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Roughly what percentage of those they interview do you think they rank? FOr something like IM.

They likely rank >90%. There's no disadvantage to ranking more people, unless a program thinks an applicant is so bad that they would have better luck in the SOAP. Most programs don't want to admit that they couldn't fill their program before the SOAP.

A better question would be how far down their rank list do they usually go before filling up. This will vary widely year to year, specialty to specialty, program to program. From speaking to a PD in a moderately competitive specialty, he said historically he gets about halfway down his rank list before filling up.

This correlates well with the fact that roughly 50% of US allopathic seniors match to their #1 choice. Simply being in the top half of your number 1 program's rank list will generally confer a match, since it is designed to try and match applicants to the first choice, and not to the program's first choice of applicants.
 
And it would be televised by DSPN (Doctors and Surgeons Specialties Network)!

QUOTE="Lev0phed, post: 18208306, member: 777078"]I always dreamed of a program director getting on the stage and saying, "In the 2017 Residency Draft, the University of Hard Knocks Orthopedic Surgery Program selects Lev0phed from the Jumbalaya School of Medicine!"

ANd then I go walk up on stage and dude hands me my ball cap and embroidered white coat to hold out for a picture

CGV_042816831_NFL_Draft_Round_1.jpg
[/QUOTE]
 
If they want to interview at 25 places that's their business. They earned those interviews. Also you never know about places until you interview. Lots of prestigious places are not great places to train and lots of places you wouldn't expect have good programs.

Residency programs adapt and learn their place on the pecking order. Just like in medical school there is yield protection and bottom tier places aren't offering interviews to superstar applicants.

The idea of limiting the number of apps would be more people would apply within their tiers. So the lower level applicants wouldn't get lost amongst mid tier applicants at their safety programs.

The way to combat all of this is to be a good applicant for your desired field, not rely on the deans to help rig the system.
Except in competitive specialties, people overinterview even with no intention to want to go there. You have nothing to lose with overapplying since app fees are very cheap. So the people from the top schools get a disproportionate share that even top people from other places don't get.
 
I think a wave application system would work best. Applicants could apply to say, 10 programs. If you are ranked at any of the first 10, you are withdrawn from the process, then the process starts again. This way, early on programs get access to students who have true interest or at the very least, students who realize their competitiveness and are listing a certain program in their initial 10 because they think they're a good fit for that program. I don't see any flaws with this process, the only one being, it will be time consuming and essentially would involve an interview season from right when September opens up, likely all the way until February for a majority of programs.

A wave system just trades one set of problems for another. Sure, you say that if you apply to 10 programs, and then don't match anywhere, you'll just apply to more. But first, recognize how horrible you're going to feel to get nothing in the first round. And then what happens if the next program you'd be interested in is now full, so there are no second round spots? This is exactly the problem the match is supposed to address. We might be able to fix that by only allowing programs to fill 1/3 of their spots in each of 3 rounds -- that way there are always spots left. Then you allow unlimited applications in the final round. But this is probably worse all around in many ways -- top programs will get "worse" candidates as the "best" candidates won't hold out for the 3rd round openings at top programs, and instead match to less competitive ones. I don't see this working.

An "early" application limit is also problematic, but only for applicants. For the sake of argument, let's say it's 20 applications. Top applicants could only apply to 20 places. The person that applied to 40 places and then starts cancelling the ridic number of IM interviews they get will be fine -- they will stress over which 20 programs to apply to, but will get plenty of interviews. The person applying to Ortho might also do OK -- although they can only apply to 20 places, so can everyone else. Therefore, each of their 20 applications is now in a smaller pool, and hence has a better chance of getting an interview. But there will always be the story of the person who applied to 70 ortho programs, interviewed at 2, and matched -- that person will likely "lose" with a cap.

So, thinking about it more, a cap that is reasonable is probably the best option. Setting a cap at 20 or 25 applications per person will probably not impact match outcomes all that much, and save everyone a bunch of work. Maybe. I worry that for each person who is capped and decreases their applications, someone else who was only going to submit 15 applications will now feel obliged to submit the cap.

They likely rank >90%. There's no disadvantage to ranking more people, unless a program thinks an applicant is so bad that they would have better luck in the SOAP. Most programs don't want to admit that they couldn't fill their program before the SOAP.

A better question would be how far down their rank list do they usually go before filling up. This will vary widely year to year, specialty to specialty, program to program. From speaking to a PD in a moderately competitive specialty, he said historically he gets about halfway down his rank list before filling up.

This correlates well with the fact that roughly 50% of US allopathic seniors match to their #1 choice. Simply being in the top half of your number 1 program's rank list will generally confer a match, since it is designed to try and match applicants to the first choice, and not to the program's first choice of applicants.

Agreed, once we interview you, you get ranked unless we determine that we'd rather have an open slot than match you. That's a very small handful of people every year.

As far as how far down the list any programs goes, that's something that tends to be kept private. 50% may be a bit high, but it depends on the length of the list. I need enough cushion that I'm not too worried about SOAP, but I also don't want to waste all the time/effort/money to interview a bunch of people who are below my last match. I tend to target my last match at about 75% of the way down my list. But again, depends on the size of the program -- a program matching 2 people might interview and rank 25, and fill quite high. A program matching 20 could interview 200 and fill in the 150's.
 
Agreed, once we interview you, you get ranked unless we determine that we'd rather have an open slot than match you. That's a very small handful of people every year.

As far as how far down the list any programs goes, that's something that tends to be kept private. 50% may be a bit high, but it depends on the length of the list. I need enough cushion that I'm not too worried about SOAP, but I also don't want to waste all the time/effort/money to interview a bunch of people who are below my last match. I tend to target my last match at about 75% of the way down my list. But again, depends on the size of the program -- a program matching 2 people might interview and rank 25, and fill quite high. A program matching 20 could interview 200 and fill in the 150's.

How do programs typically determine who they rank #20 vs. #40.
Reason I ask is, I always wonder how much the interview actually matters in getting a decent rank. Like if a program you are IV for is an academic prog with like 35 residents, they interview hundreds of peeps.

Do you really remember the people you interview?
 
How do programs typically determine who they rank #20 vs. #40.
Reason I ask is, I always wonder how much the interview actually matters in getting a decent rank. Like if a program you are IV for is an academic prog with like 35 residents, they interview hundreds of peeps.

Do you really remember the people you interview?
At least at some programs interviewers submit their evals immediately or soon after the interview. And at least some programs use some kind of scoring system for most aspects of application including interview. Also, there may be iterim meetings to rank people interviewed so far. But the process may vary from program to program.
 
I really can't imagine why applicants think this would be a good idea.

Any artificial limitation of choice is bad for applicants. It introduces weird gamesmanship into the process. Whatever # is set as a cutoff will pose major problems. Will make couples matching near suicidal for one, and the number of couples goes up by year.

The current system lets you cast a wide net without worrying that you are ruining your chances by aiming high.

The "Woe is me" from PDs is double speak. They want to have their cake and eat it too. They want a wide swath of applicants to choose from and would hate to have their choices artificially restricted.
 
I'm sure the process varies from program to program. In small/competitive programs, everyone who is invited for an interview is basically a superstar. So, ranking is probably primarily on your interview performance. Although I'm sure some superstars are just a bit more super.

In bigger programs, we clearly need a system. If I'm going to rank 200 people, I'm not interested in haggling about who is number 67 and 68. Everyone starts with a score that places you in a quartile of the list based on your application. Then, immediately after the interview day, we review everyone who was there, review the score to make sure we're all happy with it, and record our interview findings. Interview performance can move people up or down (or off, but that's rare) the list, usually by no more than 1 quartile but there are always exceptions. Sometimes interviewers are delayed in returning their findings / thoughts / comments, and we review all of those reports from prior days also. We have a small picture of everyone on our worksheet, so we can remember who you were.

Doesn't matter if you interview the first or the last day -- your chances of being on the top (or bottom) of the list are the same.
 
I really can't imagine why applicants think this would be a good idea.

Any artificial limitation of choice is bad for applicants. It introduces weird gamesmanship into the process. Whatever # is set as a cutoff will pose major problems. Will make couples matching near suicidal for one, and the number of couples goes up by year.

The current system lets you cast a wide net without worrying that you are ruining your chances by aiming high.

The "Woe is me" from PDs is double speak. They want to have their cake and eat it too. They want a wide swath of applicants to choose from and would hate to have their choices artificially restricted.

Well, not exactly. The theory is that, after a "wide enough" net has been cast, that wider isn't any better and is just a waste of resources. If your car's gas tank is 20 gallons and the pump clicks off at 19.7 gallons, sure you can try to squeeze in another 0.3 gallons at the risk of spilling gas all over the place. But that 0.3 gallons doesn't really help you very much, because you'll still need to fill up again at basically the same time. Applications for US grads is probably the same deal -- sending out 50 applications is probably serious overkill and won't result in a much better outcome than 25 applications.

But, back to the gas tank example, if you only put 19.7 gallons in and then run out of gas 2 blocks from the next gas station, you're going to be really upset. That won't happen often, but it will happen sometimes. So limiting applications would probably benefit the vast majority of applicants and programs (from a logical/outcome standpoint). But it will hurt some minority of applicants/programs, and it will cause some psychic pain for applicants to choose their 25 applications.

All that said, I don't think a limit is the right thing to do.
 
I always dreamed of a program director getting on the stage and saying, "In the 2017 Residency Draft, the University of Hard Knocks Orthopedic Surgery Program selects Lev0phed from the Jumbalaya School of Medicine!"

ANd then I go walk up on stage and dude hands me my ball cap and embroidered white coat to hold out for a picture

CGV_042816831_NFL_Draft_Round_1.jpg

 
There's not going to be a good one-size fits all solution either. IM, where they're trying to fill 30+ spots from a pool of thousands of applicants who have hundreds of programs to choose from will require different strategies than, say, integrated PRS programs who are trying to fill 1-2 spots from an applicant pool of maybe 300 with well under 100 programs to choose from. ENT has already tried to (unsuccessfully) limit the number of applications with their phone surveys and supplementary essays. I'd expect to see more of the same going forward.
 
I'm sure the process varies from program to program. In small/competitive programs, everyone who is invited for an interview is basically a superstar. So, ranking is probably primarily on your interview performance. Although I'm sure some superstars are just a bit more super.

In bigger programs, we clearly need a system. If I'm going to rank 200 people, I'm not interested in haggling about who is number 67 and 68. Everyone starts with a score that places you in a quartile of the list based on your application. Then, immediately after the interview day, we review everyone who was there, review the score to make sure we're all happy with it, and record our interview findings. Interview performance can move people up or down (or off, but that's rare) the list, usually by no more than 1 quartile but there are always exceptions. Sometimes interviewers are delayed in returning their findings / thoughts / comments, and we review all of those reports from prior days also. We have a small picture of everyone on our worksheet, so we can remember who you were.

Doesn't matter if you interview the first or the last day -- your chances of being on the top (or bottom) of the list are the same.
That is literally exactly how my old PD did things... is there some secret PD handbook that tells you how to do things?
 
I'm sure the process varies from program to program. In small/competitive programs, everyone who is invited for an interview is basically a superstar. So, ranking is probably primarily on your interview performance. Although I'm sure some superstars are just a bit more super.

In bigger programs, we clearly need a system. If I'm going to rank 200 people, I'm not interested in haggling about who is number 67 and 68. Everyone starts with a score that places you in a quartile of the list based on your application. Then, immediately after the interview day, we review everyone who was there, review the score to make sure we're all happy with it, and record our interview findings. Interview performance can move people up or down (or off, but that's rare) the list, usually by no more than 1 quartile but there are always exceptions. Sometimes interviewers are delayed in returning their findings / thoughts / comments, and we review all of those reports from prior days also. We have a small picture of everyone on our worksheet, so we can remember who you were.

Doesn't matter if you interview the first or the last day -- your chances of being on the top (or bottom) of the list are the same.
Really? How do you review the interview? Like, "Oh yeah he seemed cool." or "Oh she was a nervous nellie, prob be awkward to work with." Etc.
 
Really? How do you review the interview? Like, "Oh yeah he seemed cool." or "Oh she was a nervous nellie, prob be awkward to work with." Etc.

We interview ~30 people for 2 spots, so obviously what we do doesn't work for larger programs. When you interview with us, you interview with everyone. 6+ faculty interviews and then you spend the rest of the day with residents. There are really only two core questions. 1) Can we train this person to become a vascular surgeon by the end of their residency? And 2) Do we want to be around this person for 80 hours a week, every week for 5+ years? You can cut out a remarkable number of people just by eliminating the people who you answer "No" to either of those two questions. Rank list is about ranking how "super" they are and how they fit. But, at the end of the day, a very long interview day, you get a pretty good sense of who people are. At least enough to make a reasonably informed decision. We also call the letter writers of every single person in our top 10 and ask them about the applicants. That also always elevates or sinks a handful every year. Lastly, this is why people like known quantities. 30%+ of our trainees were affiliated with us prior to residency. Most commonly, they did an away with us. Some did research with us, one I met on SDN (I'm not kidding), etc. We would rather take someone who is on paper 10% less "super", but we've worked with for a month and know that they are solid.
 
  • Since at least 2010, seniors from US allopathic medical schools are applying to an increasing number of residency programs. It has become problematic for residency programs to meet the growing demand for interviews and applicant placement into programs.
  • We need to explore factors driving the perception of scarcity of internal medicine positions in the Match and make recommendations to mitigate the generalized increase in applications.
  • We should also establish a validated common currency of assessment and Match process that ensures “best fit” between student and residency program.
*Attached article
 

Attachments

  • Since at least 2010, seniors from US allopathic medical schools are applying to an increasing number of residency programs. It has become problematic for residency programs to meet the growing demand for interviews and applicant placement into programs.
  • We need to explore factors driving the perception of scarcity of internal medicine positions in the Match and make recommendations to mitigate the generalized increase in applications.
  • We should also establish a validated common currency of assessment and Match process that ensures “best fit” between student and residency program.
*Attached article

Interesting article. So from 2011 to 2015 the applications to internal medicine increased 31.0% from US seniors, 38.0% from osteopathic applicants, and 25.5% from international applicants. The authors do a nice job of delineating the impact of this surge on both applicants and residency programs.

Their proposed long-term solution: individualized application caps with a concurrent release of program data to help applicants make informed decisions. Which essentially reflects the murmurs at AAMC meetings.
 
The Medical School Perspective

Having been chosen from thousands of applicants, each student represents a significant investment from the medical school’s perspective. Student affairs and curricular affairs staff know much more about students than their performance statistics may convey. School leadership is cognizant of stewardship in several areas, attending to multiple constituents’ concerns: current students’ success in the Match; the faculty’s and school’s reputation; admissions officers’ and future students’ opinions; and the public’s expectation of a highly competent physician workforce.

There are multiple new concerns in our current environment. Medical school applicants now routinely ask schools about both USMLE scores and match rates. All constituents are concerned with the increasing number of U.S. senior applicants to residency programs, increasing numbers of osteopathic and international applicants, and limited residency positions.
But which is a higher stewardship obligation for school officials: medical student advocate or objective reporter? There is often not consensus within an institution. Schools have access to information that may (unfairly) disadvantage an applicant, even if sound resolution has occurred. Some schools’ perception is that, at least initially, residency programs are looking for reasons to weed applicants out. Schools are concerned that the current application process does not provide adequate information about important qualities for a successful resident.

Striving for the best possible match for students is complex in the face of multiple considerations:
  • Residency programs must review a large number of applications using limited resources, and determining best fit is difficult.
  • Medical schools are expected to advocate for students to match with their desired program.
  • The significance of past academic and professional concerns as predictors of future performance is unclear.
Further, there are multiple tensions at the school and administrator levels:
  • The administrator’s “job” is to obtain the best match for an entire class, since the administrator’s performance evaluation may incorporate this outcome.
  • Medical schools are expected to be stewards of public well-being and professional standards.
  • There is a belief that all accepted students must finish medical school and match into residency programs.
  • Students may have unrealistic expectations, at times fostered by faculty.
  • Presenting comprehensive information about a student is challenging in light of the time crunch imposed by residency program requirements.
  • Administrators may have incomplete or unreliable information about residency programs.
  • Medical schools often have incomplete data about graduates’ subsequent performance (i.e., absence of a local “charting the outcomes” equivalent).
  • Administrators and faculty have relationships and connections with students going back four years or more.
The goal, from a school, administrator, and student perspective, is a 100% match. Given the reality of the Match, particularly in highly competitive specialties, and sometimes unrealistic student expectations, this may remain an aspirational goal. Unless medical students’ specialty aspirations perfectly match the number and distribution of postgraduate training positions, disappointment is inevitable; however, this is not the consequence of residencies’ use of USMLE Step 1 scores or any other data in their decisions.

The Residency Program Perspective

Resident selection committees (RSCs) seek to identify and select applicants who are a “good fit” for their programs. They seek candidates who will benefit from, contribute to, and thrive in their training environments. RSC goals are to match individuals who will perform well during training and to equip them to succeed in their ultimate career paths.

Determining best fit and predicting resident performance are challenging. Multiple studies have attempted to determine which attributes predict success during residency, including the optimal method of selecting residents who possess these attributes. Factors that consistently rank as important in candidate selection include:
  • Performance during medical school.
  • USMLE Step 1 score.
  • Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society and Gold Humanism Honor Society membership
  • Medical school class rank
  • Interview performance
  • Letters of recommendation
  • Extracurricular activities and leadership roles
  • Personal statements
No consensus exists regarding the best predictors of resident success. RSCs necessarily rely on surrogate markers and a combination of objective and subjective data as listed above. Unfortunately, reliable objective data are extremely limited.

Use of USMLE Step 1 scores is common because the USMLE constitutes a national, standardized, objective measure. Frequently, students who have received highest honors have solid USMLE scores; however, unlike the USMLE, these other markers are not standardized across schools. While not designed to predict future residency or practice performance, in the absence of other standardized, objective data, USMLE scores have been used by programs as one surrogate marker of future performance. They have been correlated with medical school performance, In-Training Examination scores, and board certification pass rates. The last is important for the program as well as the future practitioner. Board pass rates are used to evaluate program effectiveness, and they affect accreditation and reputation.

Use of USMLE Step 1 scores or any single screening criterion for residency applicants may have unanticipated and undesirable effects. Standardized test scores often show significant variability across racial and ethnic groups. These differences may have the untoward effect of screening out underrepresented minority applicants to residency programs, despite the fact that differences in USMLE Step 1 scores do not predict performance on clinical task performance. This may impact an institution’s ability to fulfill its mission.

The MSPE is a critical component of residency applications, yet data contained within MSPEs can be incomplete and variable. Some medical schools do not follow AAMC guidelines for MSPEs. Also, because of the multiple and conflicting factors cited previously, often MSPEs are effectively another recommendation letter instead of an objective performance evaluation. Moving the MSPE release from November to October increased the likelihood that RSCs would include this letter in their initial reviews of applications. Early Match programs often still begin offering interviews before they receive applicants’ MSPEs. However, they can use the MSPE later when comparing applicants invited to interview and during subsequent ranking decisions.

The greatest value of the MSPE for the RSC is in its comparison of a student relative to his or her classmates at the same institution. However, across schools there are differences in grading scales and the percentage of students awarded the highest grades. Some schools have a pass/fail system. Not all schools rank their students. Understandably, it remains difficult to compare students from different schools using the MSPE.

In addition, it is equally difficult for RSCs to discern which applicants are most interested in their programs. Applicants submit a general application designed to appeal to a broad range of programs. The number of applications per applicant has increased dramatically in recent years and continues to rise. RSCs are more overwhelmed than ever by the volume of applications and supplemental materials received. They search for ways to compare candidates effectively and efficiently to determine which applicants to interview. Late interview cancellations and use of interview opportunities for “practice” by uninterested applicants hurt both the program and interested applicants who would have been eager to interview but did not receive an invitation.

Katsufrakis PJ, Uhler TA, Jones LD. The residency application process: pursuing improved outcomes through better understanding of the issues. Academic Medicine. 2016;20(10).

Just want to point out: Katsufrakis is part of NBME... they have a VESTED interest in keeping Step 1 and 2 alive. He will of course sing the glory praises of the USMLEs.
 
For context, I am at one of the more competitive programs in one of the most competitive specialties... But, having just reviewed ~200 applications so we can interview ~30 my thoughts...

The process is inefficient. I say this as someone who 5 years ago would have advocated getting rid of the match system entirely and replace it with a normal job recruitment process. From a pure personal benefit perspective, it would have suited me fine. I would not have worried about finding a residency, even in vascular surgery. I would likely have interviewed at fewer places and ended up at the same place that I am at. I sent out 60+ applications to GS and IVS. I interviewed at ~20 programs. I ranked all but one. I wasted a ton of time and energy my 4th year dealing with a process that if done in the normal, "find a job" way, would have been ridiculously easy for me. I don't like the match process for that reason, I don't like the amount of control that it exerts on applicants. Which is the primary reason why I don't like the concept of a cap. It is simply more restriction.



The "have nots" are less qualified AMGs that depend on their AMG status over FMG to get residency. Those AMGs will benefit because there will be less competition at those programs. This is why American medical schools are generally for this, because they think it will help their weaker students match. This isn't about helping students lower their stress/anxiety/paranoia. This is about trying to improve AMG matching.

My thoughts and story exactly. Applied to 60+ programs, CT I6 and GS; went to 26 interviews across country, mostly CT I6 and cancelled the rest in a timely fashion; ranked 20 programs ... and matched to my top choice, incredible CT I6 program. Obviously, after spending a good amount of money on all the interviews, a thought crossed my mind: Did I really have to do all that to match to my top choice?

On the other hand, during my interview season, I met amazing CT and GS attendings and highly talented co-applicants; learned more about a variety of programs and the atmosphere there; got a good understanding whether I were the right fit for those programs and whether those programs were the right match for me, which, in turn, helped me to make a more informed decision in ranking my order list.

So, there is always "the other side" to any story. 🙂
 
My thoughts and story exactly. Applied to 60+ programs, CT I6 and GS; went to 26 interviews across country, mostly CT I6 and cancelled the rest in a timely fashion; ranked 20 programs ... and matched to my top choice, incredible CT I6 program. Obviously, after spending a good amount of money on all the interviews, a thought crossed my mind: Did I really have to do all that to match to my top choice?

Probably. Before the match you may have applied to 60+ programs, gotten an interview offer from a "so-so" CT program, done the interview, and then gotten an exploding offer with 24 hours to accept or reject. That puts you in a bind of taking the suboptimal bird-in-had or holding out for something better, which may or may not come.

The match is inefficient in terms of time and money, but when the dust settles everyone gets the best position possible, given the constraints of their application strategies.
 
Probably. Before the match you may have applied to 60+ programs, gotten an interview offer from a "so-so" CT program, done the interview, and then gotten an exploding offer with 24 hours to accept or reject. That puts you in a bind of taking the suboptimal bird-in-had or holding out for something better, which may or may not come.

The match is inefficient in terms of time and money, but when the dust settles everyone gets the best position possible, given the constraints of their application strategies.

Agree that the Match is not the best in terms of time and money. Felt that my M4 year could have been spent in a more productive way but we, the applicants, have to make the best of what we have. 🙂 Might have over applied and over did it, but it felt rather scary to be left behind "all dressed up (great stats and such) and nowhere to go." Wishing the very best of luck to ALL the applicants!
 
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Any system we might use in place of what we currently have -- limiting applications, a multistep match, etc -- isn't "better" or "worse" than what we currently have. Instead, it just shuffles the deck of winners and losers. Some systems might favor those with stellar applications, or those applying to less competitive fields, etc. It's hard to measure which system gives you the "greatest good", especially when you're in the system, when "greatest good" = what's best for me.
 
Interesting article. So from 2011 to 2015 the applications to internal medicine increased 31.0% from US seniors, 38.0% from osteopathic applicants, and 25.5% from international applicants. The authors do a nice job of delineating the impact of this surge on both applicants and residency programs.

Their proposed long-term solution: individualized application caps with a concurrent release of program data to help applicants make informed decisions. Which essentially reflects the murmurs at AAMC meetings.
ERAS makes the data on how many applications were sent out public. The overall average for US grads (including MD and DOs) has gone from 42 applications in 2012 to 55 in 2016, a 33% increase. For internal medicine US grads (including MD and DOs) applying IM the average number of applications has gone from 22 in 2012 to 30.2 in 2016, a 37% increase. Many specialties are much worse.

https://www.aamc.org/services/eras/stats/359278/stats.html

As far as how far down the list any programs goes, that's something that tends to be kept private. 50% may be a bit high, but it depends on the length of the list. I need enough cushion that I'm not too worried about SOAP, but I also don't want to waste all the time/effort/money to interview a bunch of people who are below my last match. I tend to target my last match at about 75% of the way down my list. But again, depends on the size of the program -- a program matching 2 people might interview and rank 25, and fill quite high. A program matching 20 could interview 200 and fill in the 150's.

Highly specialty dependent where the target is. Based on the 2016 public match statistics (table 17), the average IM program goes 6.7 spots down its rank list for every spot that they have. Other than a weird outlier in 2013, it's usually in the 6.4-6.7 range. Given they usually interview about 10x, they know that going 2/3 of the way down is on average expected. OTOH, the average psych program goes 4.4 spots down their rank list and the average derm program goes 3.5 spots down its rank list, so they can be more judicious either interviewing or ranking less people.

Anesthesiology bizzarely goes 8.4/19.4 spots down it's rank list for PGY1 and PGY2 spots respectively, but that may be artifactual because a lot of programs have both categorical/advanced spots.
 
Highly specialty dependent where the target is. Based on the 2016 public match statistics (table 17), the average IM program goes 6.7 spots down its rank list for every spot that they have. Other than a weird outlier in 2013, it's usually in the 6.4-6.7 range. Given they usually interview about 10x, they know that going 2/3 of the way down is on average expected.
Help me understand this... so by "going 6.7 spots down its rank list for every spot" you mean if they have 10 spots and interview 100 people, then they don't fill their program until they reach #67 on their list?
 
Help me understand this... so by "going 6.7 spots down its rank list for every spot" you mean if they have 10 spots and interview 100 people, then they don't fill their program until they reach #67 on their list?

yes
 
Help me understand this... so by "going 6.7 spots down its rank list for every spot" you mean if they have 10 spots and interview 100 people, then they don't fill their program until they reach #67 on their list?
Yes.

That means the median IM program fills spot #10 with applicant #67.
 
Yes.

That means the median IM program fills spot #10 with applicant #67.

I did a quick spot check of some of the bigger specialties, comparing the 2016 numbers to 2007 (all categorical spots).

Specialty (2016) (2007)
Emergency Medicine (6.1) (5.3)
Family Medicine (6.0) (4.3)
Internal Medicine (6.7) (5.5)
OB-GYN (5.1) (4.1)
Pediatrics (7.6) (5.5)
General Surgery (4.9) (4.9)

There is a fair amount of noise in the data, but the trend seems clear.
 
I did a quick spot check of some of the bigger specialties, comparing the 2016 numbers to 2007 (all categorical spots).

Specialty (2016) (2007)
Emergency Medicine (6.1) (5.3)
Family Medicine (6.0) (4.3)
Internal Medicine (6.7) (5.5)
OB-GYN (5.1) (4.1)
Pediatrics (7.6) (5.5)
General Surgery (4.9) (4.9)

There is a fair amount of noise in the data, but the trend seems clear.
And this trend is a direct consequence of people applying and interviewing at more residencies. Doesn't sound like residency programs are wining when they end up going further down their rank lists.
 
If they want to interview at 25 places that's their business. They earned those interviews. Also you never know about places until you interview. Lots of prestigious places are not great places to train and lots of places you wouldn't expect have good programs

I could not agree more. This has been my experience so far. Glad I have more interviews than I really need for this very reason.
 
27. Will likely end up interviewing at 16ish.

This issue came up about 3,000 times at AAMC this year... again. Ten years ago the average US allopathic senior applied to 31 programs. In 2015 that number was 51, a 65% increase. Ten years ago FMG's averaged 70, now they are up to 122. US-IMG'swent from 66 to 125. Overall average for all NRMP participants went from 47 to 81.

I don't believe a cap, if implemented, would have affected you. You didn't even approach the average number of applications for your cohort. The sad fact is that the system is in something analogous to heart failure, with averages now so egregious that a cap of 50 programs for US seniors would be an improvement.
 
This issue came up about 3,000 times at AAMC this year... again. Ten years ago the average US allopathic senior applied to 31 programs. In 2015 that number was 51, a 65% increase. Ten years ago FMG's averaged 70, now they are up to 122. US-IMG'swent from 66 to 125. Overall average for all NRMP participants went from 47 to 81.

I don't believe a cap, if implemented, would have affected you. You didn't even approach the average number of applications for your cohort. The sad fact is that the system is in something analogous to heart failure, with averages now so egregious that a cap of 50 programs for US seniors would be an improvement.

True, probably wouldn't have been affected by a cap. I guess I was more just advocating for the freedom to interview at as many programs as you like. I probably should have said I'm applying to pathology so definitely not necessary to interview or apply to that many programs. True though, not really relevant to the cap issue.
 
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