Hey,
You never know with admissions, it is very hit or miss.
I graduated with a 3.1 and a 34S, and was told by my pre-med advisor that I WOULD NOT GET INTO AN AMERICAN MED SCHOOL. I saved that e-mail from him, and a few months later I applied... I applied to 20 schools, got two interviews and two acceptances, and am attending Tulane Med, and one of the first things I did was write him back and tell him that he should be more encouraging.
If you have an upward trend and perhaps can explain yourself (I never had to, it just didn't come up), I think you can get in somewhere. But make sure you have something that makes you stick out - I did a junior year abroad, had some cool jobs during summers, and I think I'm a pretty good interview.
Apply to many schools, and especially a lot of mid-level private schools: Tulane, Tufts, MCW, BU, Einstein, the Philly schools ... and also apply to a couple dreamers and all of your state schools (regardless of where you live).
Hey man, an elite school can have an average MCAT of 33 and a average GPA of 3.7 ... that can be maintained by having some students with 4.0 GPAs and a 28 MCAT and some students with 3.35 GPAs and a 38 MCAT.
Good luck!
And to the person who doesn't understand how one can get a 3.15 and a 38 MCAT: buzz off! undergrad is NOTHING like med school. I have probably one of the lowest GPAs in my matriculating class and I'm doing better than average here. The material is way different and there is so much different learning going on - visual, written, spatial reasoning. The teachers aren't ambiguous about what you need to know. And they treat you like adults, instead of the paternal b.s. that undergrad institutions use. Plus, you don't know anything about this person, he/she might have gone through family problems or maybe he/she just didn't like what he/she was learning.
Simul
Tulane Med '05