SpaceX

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Johan321 said:
SpaceX will make money. I have a strong faith in American crony capitalism.

Not the stock I would personally hold long-term, but it’s perfect for short-term trading with its volatility (much like Tesla). Buying it at $100 doesn’t seem unreasonable IMO.
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Most stocks under perform the indices. A relatively small number of stocks are responsible for a disproportionate share of an index's return.

"If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the carpool or on the commuter train – and succumbing to the social pressure, often buys." [1]

-Peter Lynch.
 
Lab Lover said:
Most stocks under perform the indices. A relatively small number of stocks are responsible for a disproportionate share of an index's return.

"If I could avoid a single stock, it would be the hottest stock in the hottest industry, the one that gets the most favorable publicity, the one that every investor hears about in the carpool or on the commuter train – and succumbing to the social pressure, often buys." [1]

-Peter Lynch.
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Yeah more than 70% of my net worth is in total US index. I keep 30% as a play money where I do short-term trading. I would usually buy 1000 stocks of the companies that I think are a good buy at the current price, and look to sell it when they go few bucks higher. For example in the case of spacex, I would be looking to buy 1000 shares at $100. Ideal outcome would be for it to go up at $130- 140 in few weeks/ months and sell it at that price. Now is it possible that it goes down to $60, and I am stuck for a while? Yes, absolutely. That’s the risk I am taking.

I have made thousands in matter of days using this strategy. But there have also been instances where the stock I bought stayed red for almost a year. Would I be better off putting everything into index? Yeah probably (since I am also paying a lot in short-term capital gain). But I engage in individual stock picking because it’s fun! It keeps things interesting and I love doing that research.

And I am personally bullish on spacex because of its predecessor Tesla (except spacex has even stronger moat). People have been complaining about Tesla being overvalued for years, but that hasn’t stopped investors from making a ton of money. These days, stock price is dependent on company’s potential for future, rather than the current sales.
 
pgg said:
They have a large lead in reusable orbital rocket boosters.

But they absolutely have competition.

If you think China won't master reuse of Falcon 9 sized boosters in the next few years, you're not paying attention. SpaceX even has commercial competitors that might get there in the next few years.

Blue Origin just blew up a rocket and a launch pad. I'm not real optimistic about their long term chances. They're just too old-spacey. Stoke, Rocket Lab, Relativity might or might not produce viable competitors in that segment of the launch market. Europe isn't even trying for some reason (Ariane 6 is expendable) but there are other state-backed efforts worldwide apart from China.

SpaceX understands this, and it's why they're betting so hard on Starship. Reusable Falcon 9 sized boosters are going China-generic, and sooner than you think.

But there's no guarantee the Starship upper stage will achieve the kind of rapid reuse they envision (and their stock price assumes, even at its current sub-IPO level). It's possible the fully reusable Starship upper stage project will simply fail, leaving SpaceX with just Falcon 9 or possibly Super Heavy boosters + expendable Starship upper stages. I think they'll get at least some reuse out of them, but a fully reusable orbital reentry shield that doesn't need refurbishment or maintenance between flights? That's by far the hardest problem they've ever faced. Even Musk acknowledges this.

I got a lot less optimistic about their fully-reusable, no refurbishment heat shield when they gave up on new tech like stainless steel skin cooled by transpiration and fell back on the same ceramic tile scheme used by the space-shuttle (albeit much improved).

When the AI bubble corrects (or worse, bursts) then xAI is going to be a drag on SpaceX's finances.




Tons of people go to Vegas every year too. At least they know what the odds are.

As usual, the smart/insider money cashed in on the IPO, extracted a bunch of money from retail investors, and got out. If only anyone could've seen that coming.
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I usually play with 25-50k at a time. Not throwing 100k at it.
Johan321 said:
Yeah more than 70% of my net worth is in total US index. I keep 30% as a play money where I do short-term trading. I would usually buy 1000 stocks of the companies that I think are a good buy at the current price, and look to sell it when they go few bucks higher. For example in the case of spacex, I would be looking to buy 1000 shares at $100. Ideal outcome would be for it to go up at $130- 140 in few weeks/ months and sell it at that price. Now is it possible that it goes down to $60, and I am stuck for a while? Yes, absolutely. That’s the risk I am taking.

I have made thousands in matter of days using this strategy. But there have also been instances where the stock I bought stayed red for almost a year. Would I be better off putting everything into index? Yeah probably (since I am also paying a lot in short-term capital gain). But I engage in individual stock picking because it’s fun! It keeps things interesting and I love doing that research.

And I am personally bullish on spacex because of its predecessor Tesla (except spacex has even stronger moat). People have been complaining about Tesla being overvalued for years, but that hasn’t stopped investors from making a ton of money. These days, stock price is dependent on company’s potential for future, rather than the current sales.
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i had a $100k of Apple stock in 2010…let’s just say I kept selling Apple stock as it went up at various points over the next 2-3 years sold 80% of if. Just like people say to take profit.

Let’s just say my sister kept it all and has like 6-7 million dollars worth of Apple doing nothing except watching it grow and reinvested dividends.

I still have around 1 million of Apple. A huge difference trying to take profit early on.
 
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aneftp said:
I usually play with 25-50k at a time. Not throwing 100k at it.

i had a $100k of Apple stock in 2010…let’s just say I kept selling Apple stock as it went up at various points over the next 2-3 years sold 80% of if. Just like people say to take profit.

Let’s just say my sister kept it all and has like 6-7 million dollars worth of Apple doing nothing except watching it grow and reinvested dividends.

I still have around 1 million of Apple. A huge difference trying to take profit early on.
Click to expand...

Yeah admittedly, I have a pretty high risk tolerance. My best friend calls me crazy for my style (he would only buy $10k worth of stocks at a time, and slowly buy more if stock falls, while I would go all in at once at my price point). I only trade established players: NVDA, apple, amazon, pltr etc. No moonshots or obscure newcomers.

Regarding Apple, along with few others, it’s a once in a generation company. It’s impossible to predict that any newcomer would replicate its growth and consistency. Since we are talking about SpaceX, better comparison is Tesla. Let’s look at the various price points for it in last 5 years:

In July 2021, stock was $214. Then it went to $407 in November 2021. Then it went downhill reaching $113 in Jan 2023. Then it went up to $436 in 2024 while falling to $240 in 2025. Then it went up again in the same year to $460. And now it’s trading at $380.

So, if you had decided to buy and hold on to Tesla, depending on the price, you might even be losing money after years! But if you had decided to trade it, there were ample opportunities to make some serious $$. What Tesla provides is extreme volatility, which is an attractive trait for short-term traders.
 
aneftp said:
I usually play with 25-50k at a time. Not throwing 100k at it.

i had a $100k of Apple stock in 2010…let’s just say I kept selling Apple stock as it went up at various points over the next 2-3 years sold 80% of if. Just like people say to take profit.

Let’s just say my sister kept it all and has like 6-7 million dollars worth of Apple doing nothing except watching it grow and reinvested dividends.

I still have around 1 million of Apple. A huge difference trying to take profit early on.
Click to expand...

Some of the highest fidelity accounts were decease people who just left it alone. the most difficult skill can be holding esp when you have high conviction stock trades.
 
Johan321 said:
Yeah admittedly, I have a pretty high risk tolerance. My best friend calls me crazy for my style (he would only buy $10k worth of stocks at a time, and slowly buy more if stock falls, while I would go all in at once at my price point). I only trade established players: NVDA, apple, amazon, pltr etc. No moonshots or obscure newcomers.

Regarding Apple, along with few others, it’s a once in a generation company. It’s impossible to predict that any newcomer would replicate its growth and consistency. Since we are talking about SpaceX, better comparison is Tesla. Let’s look at the various price points for it in last 5 years:

In July 2021, stock was $214. Then it went to $407 in November 2021. Then it went downhill reaching $113 in Jan 2023. Then it went up to $436 in 2024 while falling to $240 in 2025. Then it went up again in the same year to $460. And now it’s trading at $380.

So, if you had decided to buy and hold on to Tesla, depending on the price, you might even be losing money after years! But if you had decided to trade it, there were ample opportunities to make some serious $$. What Tesla provides is extreme volatility, which is an attractive trait for short-term traders.
Click to expand...

Thats a bad timeline for picking tesla. Its IPO was barely over a dollar split adjusted and it was essentially 20 bucks at the end of 2019. I got it in the 100's so im not complaining. its currently dead last in mag 7 ranking buts its coiling tightly in its price range waiting to break out. I doubt it stays last by eoy 2030 imo.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Thats a bad timeline for picking tesla. Its IPO was barely over a dollar split adjusted and it was essentially 20 bucks at the end of 2019. I got it in the 100's so im not complaining. its currently dead last in mag 7 ranking buts its coiling tightly in its price range waiting to break out. I doubt it stays last by eoy 2030 imo.
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If you were wise enough to buy Tesla at $20 in 2019 and then hold on to it, then you are a legendary investor.

That’s the whole point. These things are impossible to predict. So, rather than looking for next moonshot, I would rather trade companies with established track record (buy them when they fall, and hopefully sell them at profit).

On a different note, kudos to you for buying it in 100s. It’s a sweet deal 🙂
 
pgg said:
They have a large lead in reusable orbital rocket boosters.

But they absolutely have competition.

If you think China won't master reuse of Falcon 9 sized boosters in the next few years, you're not paying attention. SpaceX even has commercial competitors that might get there in the next few years.

Blue Origin just blew up a rocket and a launch pad. I'm not real optimistic about their long term chances. They're just too old-spacey. Stoke, Rocket Lab, Relativity might or might not produce viable competitors in that segment of the launch market. Europe isn't even trying for some reason (Ariane 6 is expendable) but there are other state-backed efforts worldwide apart from China.

SpaceX understands this, and it's why they're betting so hard on Starship. Reusable Falcon 9 sized boosters are going China-generic, and sooner than you think.

But there's no guarantee the Starship upper stage will achieve the kind of rapid reuse they envision (and their stock price assumes, even at its current sub-IPO level). It's possible the fully reusable Starship upper stage project will simply fail, leaving SpaceX with just Falcon 9 or possibly Super Heavy boosters + expendable Starship upper stages. I think they'll get at least some reuse out of them, but a fully reusable orbital reentry shield that doesn't need refurbishment or maintenance between flights? That's by far the hardest problem they've ever faced. Even Musk acknowledges this.

I got a lot less optimistic about their fully-reusable, no refurbishment heat shield when they gave up on new tech like stainless steel skin cooled by transpiration and fell back on the same ceramic tile scheme used by the space-shuttle (albeit much improved).

When the AI bubble corrects (or worse, bursts) then xAI is going to be a drag on SpaceX's finances.




Tons of people go to Vegas every year too. At least they know what the odds are.

As usual, the smart/insider money cashed in on the IPO, extracted a bunch of money from retail investors, and got out. If only anyone could've seen that coming.
Click to expand...
China successfully demonstrated reusable booster technology last week. They used a different method to retrieve the reusable booster than SpaceX. They're behind but they'll catch up quick.

www.nationalreview.com

China’s Reusable Rocket Breakthrough Demands a Private Space Response | National Review

Keeping our global advantage in space requires that the U.S. open the door to innovation without time-consuming red tape.
www.nationalreview.com www.nationalreview.com

Japan, too


Competition is a good thing.
 
Last edited:
arkgal said:
China successfully demonstrated reusable booster technology last week. They used a different method to retrieve the reusable booster than SpaceX. They're behind but they'll catch up quick.

www.nationalreview.com

China’s Reusable Rocket Breakthrough Demands a Private Space Response | National Review

Keeping our global advantage in space requires that the U.S. open the door to innovation without time-consuming red tape.
www.nationalreview.com www.nationalreview.com

Japan, too


Competition is a good thing.
Click to expand...

I'd rather see competition from (and profits to) US companies. I wish Blue Origin would get their act together.

I'd rather see China fail outright than become a viable competitor, though I accept that's inevitable to some degree.

Some domestically produced launch capability from our European and Asian allies is desirable.
 
finalpsychyear said:
Thats a bad timeline for picking tesla. Its IPO was barely over a dollar split adjusted and it was essentially 20 bucks at the end of 2019. I got it in the 100's so im not complaining. its currently dead last in mag 7 ranking buts its coiling tightly in its price range waiting to break out. I doubt it stays last by eoy 2030 imo.
Click to expand...
Tesla stock went no where for almost 5-6 years when it went ipo.

“
If you invested $100,000 in Tesla stock on January 1, 2014, and held it until January 1, 2019, your investment would have more than doubled, growing to approximately $222,159.


Note: The stock prices below reflect the actual historical marketplace closing prices before Tesla executed its 5-for-1 stock split in 2020 and its 3-for-1 stock split in 2022.


The 2014 to 2019 Valuation Breakdown


Starting Position (January 2, 2014):


Tesla's opening stock price on the first trading day of 2014 was $149.80 per share (unadjusted).


But we can cherry pick stock prices are so many dates. Tesla ipo was $17/share. It didn’t move much for the first few months. Still only $20/share 3-4 months later in Sept 2010.
 
Google parent Alphabet now owns about 5% of SpaceX, with its stake valued at roughly $94 billion following the space company’s historic initial public offering, according to a recent regulatory filing.

The investment makes Alphabet one of SpaceX’s largest outside shareholders and gives the technology giant a significant financial interest in Elon Musk’s privately built space and satellite communications empire.
 
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When it comes to analyst price targets for Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), you're going to find a wide range. At the high end of the spectrum is Raymond James, which placed a whopping $800 target on the stock. Morningstar, meanwhile, has said the fair value for the stock is closer to $62.
And while analysts expect rapid revenue growth this year (Morgan Stanley, for example, projects it will hit $45 billion), that's still an extreme valuation for a company set to continue losing money and burning cash. In fact, Morgan Stanley, which is bullish on the stock, doesn't think it will turn free cash flow positive until 2035. That means the company is going to have to raise a lot of cash, through equity or debt offerings, to fund what is a high-capital-expenditure (capex) business.

A lot of SpaceX's valuation is based on future promises and predictions from founder and CEO Elon Musk, and his faithful following should help cushion the stock's downside, despite his spotty record with on-time predictions.
 
Screenshot_20260723_140357_Reddit.jpg


High level analysis
 
BLADEMDA said:
When it comes to analyst price targets for Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), you're going to find a wide range. At the high end of the spectrum is Raymond James, which placed a whopping $800 target on the stock. Morningstar, meanwhile, has said the fair value for the stock is closer to $62.
And while analysts expect rapid revenue growth this year (Morgan Stanley, for example, projects it will hit $45 billion), that's still an extreme valuation for a company set to continue losing money and burning cash. In fact, Morgan Stanley, which is bullish on the stock, doesn't think it will turn free cash flow positive until 2035. That means the company is going to have to raise a lot of cash, through equity or debt offerings, to fund what is a high-capital-expenditure (capex) business.

A lot of SpaceX's valuation is based on future promises and predictions from founder and CEO Elon Musk, and his faithful following should help cushion the stock's downside, despite his spotty record with on-time predictions.
Click to expand...

So basically, no one knows anything.
 
UscGhost said:
Wait to buy at 100?
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We all want to time the bottom. If you have play money. It’s very close to what Facebook did the first couple of months of its ipo.

We are in for a wild ride. Investing is for long term. If you have 25-50k play money. Always worth a gamble.
 
nearly
aneftp said:
We all want to time the bottom. If you have play money. It’s very close to what Facebook did the first couple of months of its ipo.

We are in for a wild ride. Investing is for long term. If you have 25-50k play money. Always worth a gamble.
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nearly every stock goes down after it's IPO. Both facebook that eventually went up and others that never went up.
 
Mman said:
nearly

nearly every stock goes down after it's IPO. Both facebook that eventually went up and others that never went up.
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Correct. People just want the quick and easy money expecting new stocks to go up and up.

Who knows. I thought I got air b n b on the dip around $120 after it peaked around $210. Stock hovered around $90-150. I dumped it around $140 in 2024. Not having 50k Airbnb stock tied down for more years. And the stock still hovering around $150 ish

And we all know it’s just easier to buy an etf like vgt with 50k and just let it ride without headache. But sometimes it’s fun to play around.
 
BobBarker said:
Would be something nice to have in the Roth IRA and just let it ride.
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why? Even with a roughly 50% loss of market value in the last 6 weeks, it is still valued at $1.43T. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $4.8T. This isn't like getting in early on Amazon and holding it for 2 or 3 decades and having potentially massive growth in your Roth that isn't taxed. It's already an insanely highly valued company. The long term growth prospects probably aren't much different than something like Meta or Google or whoever. The odds of a 10x decline are probably higher than the odds of a 10x growth for it.

I understand the idea behind having some lottery tickets in your Roth that might have outsized gains, it's just the SpaceX is far too large to be one of those.
 
Sure, agreed. I just don’t actively trade anymore. Got my keys taken away after riding Nucectra to bankruptcy. We had a baby and it peaked right around Halloween and I told my wife we were going to be rich quicker than expected. I remember listening to the call where they said they had to destroy all of the bladder stimulator IPG’s they made. The stock started plummeting more than it already was. E*trade wouldn’t let me exit when it still had any value until it was too late. That is a side conversation. I don’t want to derail the thread. So brokerage account is mostly all conservative. I still can play if I want in the small by comparison backdoor Roth accounts. My kids have Roth’s so $5000 space x for each of them might really be something in 50 years. So talking about the Roth is more about how I do things now with my investments more than global advice.
 
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