Test percentile ranks for college vs med school selection?

[SleepingPillow]

Hello,

As an upcoming applicant, I saw that MCAT medians have been creeping up year by year- same as how SAT/ACT did.

Take WashU for example- their 25% ACT is a 32 (same for a lot of other top schools). For its med school, 519 is their 25% for accepted students. 519 is also the 25% for a handful of other schools as well (UChicago, NYU, + a few others I think??).

So I'm wondering because back when I was applying to colleges I was told that a 32 would make many top 20 schools a huge reach, and even if I get in and attend one of them I would be at a disadvantage due to being in a class where 75% are "more prepared" in the beginning (this turned out to be true). However, I was told that a 519 wouldn't be what holds me back from any med school in the country, even for the ones with 519 in the 25%.

A 32 is a 98% score while a 519 is 97%, so is there some sort of data that suggests that a 32 would be viewed differently from a 34 while a 519 wouldn't be that different from a 521? Is it just the minuscule number of questions separating 519 and 521?

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[Dr panda]

Don’t overthink it - anything above 517 is basically couple questions difference (often in CARS).

 

[deleted859689]

Numbers get you looked at. Personal statement, secondary, and LORs seal the deal for an interview invite. Interview seals the deal for acceptance. If you have the numbers, make sure you have the volunteering (non-clinical/clinical), shadowing, research, some involvement with the community, and a compelling personal statement. A 519 will not hold you back anywhere.

 

[Goro]

Hello,

As an upcoming applicant, I saw that MCAT medians have been creeping up year by year- same as how SAT/ACT did.

Take WashU for example- their 25% ACT is a 32 (same for a lot of other top schools). For its med school, 519 is their 25% for accepted students. 519 is also the 25% for a handful of other schools as well (UChicago, NYU, + a few others I think??).

So I'm wondering because back when I was applying to colleges I was told that a 32 would make many top 20 schools a huge reach, and even if I get in and attend one of them I would be at a disadvantage due to being in a class where 75% are "more prepared" in the beginning (this turned out to be true). However, I was told that a 519 wouldn't be what holds me back from any med school in the country, even for the ones with 519 in the 25%.

A 32 is a 98% score while a 519 is 97%, so is there some sort of data that suggests that a 32 would be viewed differently from a 34 while a 519 wouldn't be that different from a 521? Is it just the minuscule number of questions separating 519 and 521?

519 = 518 = 520 = 521-528.

 

[KnightDoc]

519 = 518 = 520 = 521-528.

I understand this is unquestionably true in general, since the overall mean for matriculants is 511, but how can it possibly be true for the tippy top schools OP is asking about? How can 519 possibly be the 25%ile if 518=528? Surely there are more than enough applicants to the very top schools for them to find enough candidates with otherwise superlative applications and MCATs below 520 to bring their medians well below 520+ and their 25%iles below 519, so what am I missing? Common sense tells me that, at least at those schools, 518<522+.

I ask because I have been operating under the assumption that the folks with stats at or below the 25%ile for any particular school who are accepted are not simply lucky lottery winners, and that their applications are really super special beyond the merely extraordinary in order to overcome relatively weak stats for the school (URM, Military, or other extraordinary circumstances). Since that will definitely not be my situation, I have also been assuming that I need to be at or above the median for a particular school to have a realistic chance worthy of the time and money required to submit an application.

Is this wrong, and is it really just kind of random with respect to stats, because 518/3.7 really is same at Harvard as 524/3.95? If so, why aren't their numbers lower??? Or are all T10s and most T20s so-called stat ******, and if so, isn't the definition of a stat ***** that 518<528?

 

[Goro]

I understand this is unquestionably true in general, since the overall mean for matriculants is 511, but how can it possibly be true for the tippy top schools OP is asking about? How can 519 possibly be the 25%ile if 518=528? Surely there are more than enough applicants to the very top schools for them to find enough candidates with otherwise superlative applications and MCATs below 520 to bring their medians well below 520+ and their 25%iles below 519, so what am I missing? Common sense tells me that, at least at those schools, 518<522+.

I ask because I have been operating under the assumption that the folks with stats at or below the 25%ile for any particular school who are accepted are not simply lucky lottery winners, and that their applications are really super special beyond the merely extraordinary in order to overcome relatively weak stats for the school (URM, Military, or other extraordinary circumstances). Since that will definitely not be my situation, I have also been assuming that I need to be at or above the median for a particular school to have a realistic chance worthy of the time and money required to submit an application.

Is this wrong, and is it really just kind of random with respect to stats, because 518/3.7 really is same at Harvard as 524/3.95? If so, why aren't their numbers lower??? Or are all T10s and most T20s so-called stat ******, and if so, isn't the definition of a stat ***** that 518<528?

Who do think is in the 10-25th %s???

 

[Dr panda]

518/3.7 really is same at Harvard as 524/3.95? If so, why aren't their numbers lower??? Or are all T10s and most T20s so-called stat ******, and if so, isn't the definition of a stat ***** that 518<528?

Again,
3.8=4.0 when it comes to chances of getting in.
Difference between 526 and 528 is basically 2-3 questions from the whole test. 518 usually gives you exact same chance as 526, stop overthinking it.

 

[Dr panda]

I understand this is unquestionably true in general, since the overall mean for matriculants is 511, but how can it possibly be true for the tippy top schools OP is asking about? How can 519 possibly be the 25%ile if 518=528? Surely there are more than enough applicants to the very top schools for them to find enough candidates with otherwise superlative applications and MCATs below 520 to bring their medians well below 520+ and their 25%iles below 519, so what am I missing? Common sense tells me that, at least at those schools, 518<522+.

I ask because I have been operating under the assumption that the folks with stats at or below the 25%ile for any particular school who are accepted are not simply lucky lottery winners, and that their applications are really super special beyond the merely extraordinary in order to overcome relatively weak stats for the school (URM, Military, or other extraordinary circumstances). Since that will definitely not be my situation, I have also been assuming that I need to be at or above the median for a particular school to have a realistic chance worthy of the time and money required to submit an application.

Is this wrong, and is it really just kind of random with respect to stats, because 518/3.7 really is same at Harvard as 524/3.95? If so, why aren't their numbers lower??? Or are all T10s and most T20s so-called stat ******, and if so, isn't the definition of a stat ***** that 518<528?

Besides stats one must have right ECs, so when there is an applicant with 5k hours of research who comes with 518 MCAT when the average is 520 adcoms will not be like “well that fellow missed those 2 CARS questions on his last passage, definitely not our caliber, rejected.” There is more than just numbers. Our majestic master Jedi @Goro will eventually post his musings on what it actually takes to get into one of these schools (we still remember this )

 

[KnightDoc]

Who do think is in the 10-25th %s???

People who have ECs way above and beyond the already superlative ECs of those in the 50%+iles, plus special cases like URMs, military, etc.?

 

[KnightDoc]

Again,
3.8=4.0 when it comes to chances of getting in.
Difference between 526 and 528 is basically 2-3 questions from the whole test. 518 usually gives you exact same chance as 526, stop overthinking it.

Okay! I do understand the negligible difference between 526 and 528, and all I'm asking is, if 518=526, how on earth does a school end up with a median of 522? I would think there are a lot more candidates with 518 than 526, so how does the median end up being so high?

 

[KnightDoc]

Besides stats one must have right ECs, so when there is an applicant with 5k hours of research who comes with 518 MCAT when the average is 520 adcoms will not be like “well that fellow missed those 2 CARS questions on his last passage, definitely not our caliber, rejected.” There is more than just numbers. Our majestic master Jedi @Goro will eventually post his musings on what it actually takes to get into one of these schools (we still remember this )

Of course! My thoughts are predicated on ECs being "average" for a top school, not off the charts. In your example, 518 does not equal 522, but, rather 5k hours of research compensate for a below average MCAT.

 

[deleted1001426]

Okay! I do understand the negligible difference between 526 and 528, and all I'm asking is, if 518=526, how on earth does a school end up with a median of 522? I would think there are a lot more candidates with 518 than 526, so how does the median end up being so high?

I don’t have an answer per say but I am curious how many people with scores sub 522 choose to apply to said top tier schools. At least speaking for myself, I have an mcat in the lower end of the range that we’re talking about and I didn’t even consider applying to these schools. Maybe a portion of this can be explained by applicants with mid-upper middle 90th percentile scores not applying ? Idk probably not, just trying to reconcile the data with the prior posts which said 518 and up are viewed equally

 

[Dr panda]

Okay! I do understand the negligible difference between 526 and 528, and all I'm asking is, if 518=526, how on earth does a school end up with a median of 522? I would think there are a lot more candidates with 518 than 526, so how does the median end up being so high?

Because besides 518 one must have right ECs and GPA, though there are more applicants with 518 than with 522, not all of them have right ECs.

 

[batpuac]

Holistic admissions

 

[KnightDoc]

Because besides 518 one must have right ECs and GPA, though there are more applicants with 518 than with 522, not all of them have right ECs.

In that case, I think we are saying the same thing!

If the right ECs with a 524 are not the same as with a 518, then 518<524! Of course, at any school and with any MCAT/GPA combination within reason, lower stats can be overcome with better ECs. That wasn't OP's point, and the responses indicated that at the upper end of MCAT scores (starting, apparently with 518) there was no discernible difference in admission outcomes, notwithstanding the fact that several schools have 520+ medians.

 

[Dr panda]

In that case, I think we are saying the same thing!
If the right ECs with a 524 are not the same as with a 518, then 518<524!

They are the same. My point was the applicant pool with 522 average usually has better ECs than people with 518

 

[deleted1001426]

They are the same. My point was the applicant pool with 522 average usually has better ECs than people with 518

Idk if you can make that generalization. You’d assume that anyone who put in the effort to obtain a >90th percentile mcat score also did enough to have a well rounded app ec wise. I’d be surprised in gpa/mcat and EC quality were correlated at all beyond a certain threshold

 

[KnightDoc]

I don’t have an answer per say but I am curious how many people with scores sub 522 choose to apply to said top tier schools. At least speaking for myself, I have an mcat in the lower end of the range that we’re talking about and I didn’t even consider applying to these schools. Maybe a portion of this can be explained by applicants with mid-upper middle 90th percentile scores not applying ? Idk probably not, just trying to reconcile the data with the prior posts which said 518 and up are viewed equally

Given how many people apply everywhere, and the propensity, in the words of @Goro, to make donations, I really do not think there is any shortage of applications at the top schools from people with sub 522s.

I honestly think we are all talking past each other, and the simple answer is that, of course, it is possible to be accepted at the 25%ile (after all, 1/4 of the class is!), and that a 25%ile score does not equal a 75%ile score at a top school, but that it could be overcome with superlative ECs or other factors that average successful candidates at and above the 50%ile don't have.

 

[KnightDoc]

They are the same. My point was the applicant pool with 522 average usually has better ECs than people with 518

Now you lost me! Are you saying people with 518s at schools with a 522 median have the same ECs as the people at the same school with a 526?

If that's the case, why isn't the median lower, since there are so many more applicants below 522 than above it?

 

[Isoval]

Now you lost me! Are you saying people with 518s at schools with a 522 median have the same ECs as the people at the same school with a 526?

If that's the case, why isn't the median lower, since there are so many more applicants below 522 than above it?

Totally possible.

Interviews are a fairly wide net and you'll invite anyone who meets a certain criterion.

 

[Goro]

They are the same. My point was the applicant pool with 522 average usually has better ECs than people with 518

And you know this how?

 

[proudofmykids]

I don’t have an answer per say but I am curious how many people with scores sub 522 choose to apply to said top tier schools. At least speaking for myself, I have an mcat in the lower end of the range that we’re talking about and I didn’t even consider applying to these schools. Maybe a portion of this can be explained by applicants with mid-upper middle 90th percentile scores not applying ? Idk probably not, just trying to reconcile the data with the prior posts which said 518 and up are viewed equally

Look at it this way.....
(using rough numbers.)
T20 schools combine to about 3000/yr enrollments.
If 517 is 97% as mentioned above,that equates to about 1200-1500/yr individuals.
So you can see there is room at T20 for a good portion of the classes to be below especially when a portion of the top 3%ers go to non T20s. I don’t recall ever seeing more of a histogram of admission score percentiles beyond the 10,25,50,75,90 marks. Realize without a histogram to differentiate, 26-74percentile could be the same score.

 

[Goro]

Too many of you are obsessing over a single metric. Not all of those > 520 people have GPAs to match.

 

[Seihai]

Too many of you are obsessing over a single metric. Not all of those > 520 people have GPAs to match.

I agree that this thread is pointless, but there's probably a decent correlation between MCAT and GPA.

https://www.aamc.org/system/files/2019-11/2019_FACTS_Table_A-23.pdf

From that table, 61.5% of people with an MCAT over 517 had a GPA over 3.79.