The blood bath is upon us

[MCATLasagna]

My friends, the time for R's has come.

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[MCATLasagna]

@gonnif when you say enhancing, how would you recommend it?

 

[Toutie]

@gonnif when you say enhancing, how would you recommend it?

Enhance whatever your weaknesses are. Would some more clinical volunteering hep? Non-clinical volunteering? Shadowing? GPA repair? Another MCAT?

If you do have to reapply next year, you don't want to do it with the exact same application you have now...so continue to improve it. Until you have an acceptance in hand, you must be planning to re-apply.

 

[subdermallight]

In terms of applications: out of the nearly one million individual applications that will be received by all medical schools this year, somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 will be approved by adcoms for acceptance. This means 80-90% of all applications will be rejected

in terms of applicants: across an applicant pool of about 50,000 with about 10,000 getting a single acceptance and 10,000 getting multiple acceptances. That means 60% of the applicants will get no acceptances, 20% a single acceptances and 20% multiple acceptances. So everyone, even those with multiple acceptances, will get many, many more rejections.

Now is that time that everyone continue to enhance their record for a possible reapplication for next cycle as the odds are stacked against you. If you dont start enhancing now, you will not have any improvement to apply in the immediate next cycle

Just curious about the numbers here. When you say 80-90% of 1 million applications will be rejected, are you talking about primary applications that don’t receive secondaries?

Then does the 50,000 applicant number refer to applicants who received interview invites out of the 100,000-200,000 who received secondaries?

Out of the 50,000, only 20,000 receive at least 1 acceptance. So starting from the 1 million applications, that’s a 20,000/1,000,000 or 2% chance of getting accepted?

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

My friends, the time for R's has come.

lol I got my first R like a month ago. Get on my level.

 

[bananafish94]

You're only now getting rejections? I remember when I applied to Indiana they rejected me mere hour(s) after I submitted the secondary, probably as soon as the check cleared.

 

[Catalystik]

My friends, the time for R's has come.

The time may come that you would prefer the nice, crisp closure of a Rejection Notification as opposed to the endless wait of the uncommunicated "silent rejection," where you are kept hanging endlessly.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

The time may come that you would prefer the nice, crisp closure of a Rejection Notification as opposed to the endless wait of the uncommunicated "silent rejection," where you are kept hanging endlessly.

*cough* Hopkins *cough*

 

[Catalystik]

*cough* Hopkins *cough*

Endless silence: *cough* Columbia, Duke, Emory, Harvard, Miami, Loyola, Yale, *cough*

 

[MCATLasagna]

Don't speak abut

*cough* Hopkins *cough*

If you don't cause anxiety, are you even Hopkins? (can attest as an alum)

 

[LizzyM]

Just curious about the numbers here. When you say 80-90% of 1 million applications will be rejected, are you talking about primary applications that don’t receive secondaries?

Then does the 50,000 applicant number refer to applicants who received interview invites out of the 100,000-200,000 who received secondaries?

Out of the 50,000, only 20,000 receive at least 1 acceptance. So starting from the 1 million applications, that’s a 20,000/1,000,000 or 2% chance of getting accepted?

There are 50,000 unique individuals applying to medical school. Each applies to one or more schools. In total, these 50,000 applicants make 1 million applications; that's an average of 20 applications per applicant.

60% of applicants do not get any offers of admission. If each has applied to an average of 20 schools, that's 50,000(.6)(20) = 600,000 rejection letters right there.
20% of applicants get one offer of admission. If each has applied to an average of 20 schools, that's 50,000(.2)(19) = 190,000 rejection letters to people who eventually get in somewhere.
Finally there are the lucky 20% who get more than one offer. Let's say, on average, they get an average of 5 offers having made 20 applications. That's still 15 rejections (or perpetual waitlists) despite being wildly successful by any standard. That's 50,000(.2)(15)=150,000 rejection letters.

The chance of any specific application turning into an offer of admission is low and depends on the school but on average, 940,000 out of 1 million applications do not result in an offer of admission leaving 60,000 offers divided among 20,000 applicants. Your chance of being admitted somewhere are about 40% but your chances of being admitted to any given school are far less.

Now you might say that if schools are giving out 60,000 offers and there are 50,000 applicants, everyone could get at least one offer. However, schools make offers knowing that they are going to be turned down by the applicant who will choose to go elsewhere. If the schools knew that the offer would be accepted, they'd be making far fewer offers, maybe, in total, about 20,000 offers from all the schools combined.

 

[WedgeDawg]

Endless silence: *cough* Columbia, Duke, Emory, Harvard, Miami, Loyola, Yale, *cough*

I got 5 rejections from 3 of those schools.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

Endless silence: *cough* Columbia, Duke, Emory, Harvard, Miami, Loyola, Yale, *cough*

For some reason, I thought Harvard was non-rolling and released acceptances in March.

 

[LizzyM]

For some reason, I thought Harvard was non-rolling and released acceptances in March.

The point is that they don't send rejections. You can wait and wait and if you haven't had an interview, you may never know officially where you stand until very late in the cycle if at all.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

The point is that they don't send rejections. You can wait and wait and if you haven't had an interview, you may never know officially where you stand until very late in the cycle if at all.

I guess I just view it differently since you know when acceptances are coming out for them. If you don't hear anything by Dec or Jan, you're probably X-ed there. And if you did interview and don't hear anything in March, it's probably time to move on.

Not like the schools that do rolling admissions, so you never know if an II or R or A is around the corner. But I get your point.

 

[Catsfordays]

In terms of applications: out of the nearly one million individual applications that will be received by all medical schools this year, somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 will be approved by adcoms for acceptance. This means 80-90% of all applications will be rejected

in terms of applicants: across an applicant pool of about 50,000 with about 10,000 getting a single acceptance and 10,000 getting multiple acceptances. That means 60% of the applicants will get no acceptances, 20% a single acceptances and 20% multiple acceptances. So everyone, even those with multiple acceptances, will get many, many more rejections.

Now is that time that everyone continue to enhance their record for a possible reapplication for next cycle as the odds are stacked against you. If you dont start enhancing now, you will not have any improvement to apply in the immediate next cycle

60% of applicants do not get any offers of admission. If each has applied to an average of 20 schools, that's 50,000(.6)(20) = 600,000 rejection letters right there.
20% of applicants get one offer of admission. If each has applied to an average of 20 schools, that's 50,000(.2)(19) = 190,000 rejection letters to people who eventually get in somewhere.
Finally there are the lucky 20% who get more than one offer. Let's say, on average, they get an average of 5 offers having made 20 applications. That's still 15 rejections (or perpetual waitlists) despite being wildly successful by any standard. That's 50,000(.2)(15)=150,000 rejection letters.

Are these data including DO schools? Or does this apply only for MD?

 

[Pharaoh95]

Rejections don't even phase me anymore. As a re-applicant, I'm used to it.

 

[LizzyM]

Are these data including DO schools? Or does this apply only for MD?

MD only. I don't know how many unique applicants there are if we count everyone who made an application to one or both of these options. @gonnif @Goro can you weigh in on how many DO slots there are to fill and what proportion of DO applicants get in somewhere?

 

[Goro]

There are about 8,000 DO School seats.

At my school we get about 5000 + applications, we interview around 500, we accept around 350, and we seat around 100.

 

[MCATLasagna]

There are about 8,000 DO School seats.

At my school we get about 5000 + applications, we interview around 500, we accept around 350, and we seat around 100.

But how many do you STAND?

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

Of those 50,000 how many have no business at all applying to medical school?

@gonnif has answered this before, I believe. Iirc the number is smaller than you’d think.

 

[Goro]

Of those 50,000 how many have no business at all applying to medical school?

About half is my guess

 

[LizzyM]

Of those 50,000 how many have no business at all applying to medical school?

<1600 applicants fell into categories by MCAT/GPA from which no applicants garnered admission (e.g. MCAT <486 and GPA 2.80-3.19). That's out of 44,802 for that application cycle.

The whole grid of applicants and matriculants by MCAT and GPA is fascinating (at least to me).
https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

 

[boogiecousins94]

I haven’t even been rejected from a waitlist whose school had classes start a month ago, be glad for concrete rejections! Grateful I am a student elsewhere otherwise I would’ve been mad about that, I think at the point of a WL you should hear something back