The Flu and Covid-19 - The Truth Comes Out

Started by Old Timer
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Old Timer

Old Timer

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15+ Year Member
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So it seems the truth finally comes out. The number everyone bandies about referring to the number of flu deaths per year is NOT computed the same way Covid-19 deaths are reported.

The annual flu mortality figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are estimates produced by plugging laboratory-confirmed deaths into a mathematical model that attempts to correct for under counting.

Covid-19 death figures represent a literal count of people who have either tested positive for the virus or whose diagnosis was based on meeting certain clinical and epidemiological criteria.

To get a more accurate comparison, one must start with the number of directly confirmed flu deaths, which the CDC tracks on an annual basis. In the past seven flu seasons, going back to 2013, that tally fluctuated between 3,448 and 15,620 deaths.

Number of directly confirmed Covid-19 cases is over 60,000.

What would the number be if we plugged it into an equation to account for under counting?
1588515755800.png


https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...-accurate-way-compare-coronavirus-deaths-flu/
 
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Twentytwelve2 said:
You left out variable factors such as FLU VACCINATION availability and FLU TREATMENTS availability.

You failed. bad article
Click to expand...
Not a bad article. It's data driven. The flu number is a modeled number the covid number is not. So it is not an apples to apples comparison. And as for the vaccine. This is real life. We don't have a vaccine. That means for now Covid-19 is more deadly than the flu. It might not be 2 years from now, but it is now. And on another front, we have NEVER successfully created a vaccine for any of the seven corona viruses that affect human beings,
 
Old Timer said:
The right wing echo chamber is till on the same as flu thing....
Click to expand...

This is so frustrating because even if COVID-19 was only as deadly as the flu, we are adding those deaths on top of what we usually get. It would still be a serious concern that required immediate action.

Turns out it is much more deadly than the flu. It has killed more people in two months than the flu kills in an average year, and yet people still walk around saying "it's just a flu."

I'm wondering if there was ever a point where people in the US were actually ashamed of their ignorance instead of displaying it with pride.
 
gwarm01 said:
This is so frustrating because even if COVID-19 was only as deadly as the flu, we are adding those deaths on top of what we usually get. It would still be a serious concern that required immediate action.

Turns out it is much more deadly than the flu. It has killed more people in two months than the flu kills in an average year, and yet people still walk around saying "it's just a flu."

I'm wondering if there was ever a point where people in the US were actually ashamed of their ignorance instead of displaying it with pride.
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Hopefully covid gets them. We need a good plague to rid us of the stupid in the world.
 
So, if the way you collect the data is altered, as I have posted in other posts, your data is flawed, no? When reclassified, death rate had a significant drop.

On a different note, why is flu infection rate dropping to almost nothing during the peak of COVID19?



Comparing 2020 week 19 vs 2019 week 19

One can argue it's due to quarantine, but then shouldn't COVID19 infection rate do the same? Yet, it's not... hmm
 
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VictorOfHungerGames said:
So, if the way you collect the data is altered, as I have posted in other posts, your data is flawed, no? When reclassified, death rate had a significant drop.

On a different note, why is flu infection rate dropping to almost nothing during the peak of COVID19?



Comparing 2020 week 19 vs 2019 week 19

One can argue it's due to quarantine, but then shouldn't COVID19 infection rate do the same? Yet, it's not... hmm
Click to expand...

One explanation would be COVID19 is more contagious (higher R).
Though not sure if that accounts entirely for that phenomenon.
Plus flu has a vaccine which helps to some extent.
 
GrandTheftAutumn said:
One explanation would be COVID19 is more contagious (higher R).
Though not sure if that accounts entirely for that phenomenon.
Plus flu has a vaccine which helps to some extent.
Click to expand...
Considering there is so much false reporting and the fact that at this point I simply cannot trust the government, Im gonna say we will never know the true number. But again, I always go back to this question: Was it worth the risk of crashing the economy?
 
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VictorOfHungerGames said:
Considering there is so much false reporting and the fact that at this point I simply cannot trust the government, Im gonna say we will never know the true number. But again, I always go back to this question: Was it worth the risk of crashing the economy?
Click to expand...

Regions that implemented stronger measures during the Spanish Flu pandemic ended up recovering sooner than those that did not.

The strength of the economy does not correlate positively with the number of sick and dead. In many cases the correlation is inverse. More sick and dead means fewer people in the workforce and everyone will be more afraid to go out.
 
PharmtoCS said:
Regions that implemented stronger measures during the Spanish Flu pandemic ended up recovering sooner than those that did not.

The strength of the economy does not correlate positively with the number of sick and dead. In many cases the correlation is inverse. More sick and dead means fewer people in the workforce and everyone will be more afraid to go out.
Click to expand...

This. Too often commerce and public health are framed as if they are at odds with each other, when really it is more of a collaboration. A healthier population is a more productive population.
 
beautifulrobot said:
This. Too often commerce and public health are framed as if they are at odds with each other, when really it is more of a collaboration. A healthier population is a more productive population.
Click to expand...
This is the part I don't understand. Trump wants to get re-elected. He needs the economy to be open. The best way to open without kiling people is to open while testing and contact tracing. If he does this he will be a hero. Kill the pandemic, save the economy.....
 
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Personally I think if Trump pivots from re-elect me because I did such a great job and goes back to 'look at the other candidate' it will work again. His ego will take a blow but all he has to do is change the narrative. Democrats want this to be about his performance. It probably should be. There is now a 4 year record for him but please there is no viable opponent again. Biden + Michelle Obama/Harris/Amy K doesn't sound overly exciting.
 
M0df said:
Personally I think if Trump pivots from re-elect me because I did such a great job and goes back to 'look at the other candidate' it will work again. His ego will take a blow but all he has to do is change the narrative. Democrats want this to be about his performance. It probably should be. There is now a 4 year record for him but please there is no viable opponent again. Biden + Michelle Obama/Harris/Amy K doesn't sound overly exciting.
Click to expand...

It should be about his performance, that's why he will win

It's been a flawless presidency
 
Thank you ! I have been telling everyone who would listen that the flu numbers are based on excess deaths using epidemiological equations. If we used the same framework for COVID-19, the excess deaths would likely be more substantial. Though we never surpassed bed / ICU capacity like we expected earlier, the excess deaths due to cancer care, MIs and other factors are likely going to add up to be significantly more than seasonal flu.
 
Old Timer said:
This is the part I don't understand. Trump wants to get re-elected. He needs the economy to be open. The best way to open without kiling people is to open while testing and contact tracing. If he does this he will be a hero. Kill the pandemic, save the economy.....
Click to expand...
But remember, he is really, really bad at his job. He's bad at every job, actually.
 
beautifulrobot said:
(disclaimer: I'm in a pretty cynical mood right now)

He doesn't need to do a good job with COVID to get re-elected, he just needs to do a good job with discrediting journalists, promoting his version of the truth, and convincing people that the best kind of government is a government that does nothing/gets out of people's way to do whatever they want (and that's more important than protecting vulnerable people from being exploited and killed). Also, as long he continues to appoint conservative / anti-choice judges to the federal courts, he'll be fine. At the end of the day, a lot of one-issue voters don't care how badly he handles COVID or any other national emergency, as long as there is a Republican president around when RBG passes away.

In that sense, he is actually very good at his job.
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with this at all, it's the goal of every politician.... Getting elected again.

AOC saw a huge opportunity and is taking full advantage of it.
 
Dred Pirate said:
I think we can finally put this topic to bed
Click to expand...
I personally found these results pretty shocking. I get the increase in EKG abnormalities, but the massive spike in MIs from HCQ alone? Seems odd considering the relatively short course safety data for other indications. One of the reasons a lot of ID docs ran with it initially is that the risk of a short course of HCQ was thought to be low.
 
For those interested in a different perspective other than the nonsense spewed by media and data that has been misrepresented. The national and global response to this "deadly virus" goes against microbiology 101 and basic principles of epidemiology. These Youtube videos present expert opinion, not a software engineer whose only solution to this is social distancing and a vaccine.
Journeyman Pictures

Watch previous episodes of Perspectives on the Pandemic here:

Episode 1: https://youtu.be/d6MZy-2fcBw
Episode 2: https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg (Currently Offline) Available on Facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/perspectives...
Episode 3: https://youtu.be/VK0Wtjh3HVA
Episode 4: https://youtu.be/cwPqmLoZA4s
Episode 5: https://youtu.be/k0Q4naYOYDw
Episode 6: https://youtu.be/3f0VRtY9oTs
Episode 7: https://youtu.be/2JbOvjtnPpE


And, read Wittkowski's study here: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715
 
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LazyPharmacist2.0 said:
For those interested in a different perspective other than the nonsense spewed by media and data that has been misrepresented. The national and global response to this "deadly virus" goes against microbiology 101 and basic principles of epidemiology. These Youtube videos present expert opinion, not a software engineer whose only solution to this is social distancing and a vaccine.
Journeyman Pictures

Watch previous episodes of Perspectives on the Pandemic here:

Episode 1: https://youtu.be/d6MZy-2fcBw
Episode 2: https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg (Currently Offline) Available on Facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/perspectives...
Episode 3: https://youtu.be/VK0Wtjh3HVA
Episode 4: https://youtu.be/cwPqmLoZA4s
Episode 5: https://youtu.be/k0Q4naYOYDw
Episode 6: https://youtu.be/3f0VRtY9oTs
Episode 7: https://youtu.be/2JbOvjtnPpE


And, read Wittkowski's study here: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715
Click to expand...
Don't have time to listen to all of this crap. I listened to the first video and learned ZERO. Any ***** with 1/10 of brain knows the death rate is not 3.4%. We all know there are many many many many many cases we are not capturing. We also know there are more deaths than we are capturing. The best guesstimate by most physicians on the front line is the death rate is 1-2% compared to the 0.1% for seasonal flu.

There are really only 3 choices. Herd immunity through a vaccine, Test and trace and isolation. There is no herd immunity from any of the 6 other Corona viruses that affect human beings. You could expose the whole country and not get to herd immunity. We also don't know how long immunity will last. We just don't know. So why risk getting everyone infected with extra deaths to get immunity for 6 months? Who would be foolish enough to risk this.
We do know this. There is overwhelming medical evidence that close prolonged contact with an infected person spreads this virus. Avoiding this close and prolonged contact is essential.

html.rhhz.net/zhlxbx/028.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6909e1.htm?s_cid=mm6909e1_w

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants

characteristics of household transmission of COVID-19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30607-3/fulltext

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2765641?utm_campaign=articlePDF%26utm_medium%3darticlePDFlink%26utm_source%3darticlePDF%26utm_content%3djamainternmed.2020.202
0

Cluster of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in the French Alps, 2020

Children are unlikely to have been the primary source of household SARS-CoV-2 infections

I have 10 more just like that show pretty much without a doubt close prolonged contact with infected human beings is to be avoided. Since we don't know who is infected we need to avoid people.
 
Old Timer said:
Don't have time to listen to all of this crap. I listened to the first video and learned ZERO. Any ***** with 1/10 of brain knows the death rate is not 3.4%. We all know there are many many many many many cases we are not capturing. We also know there are more deaths than we are capturing. The best guesstimate by most physicians on the front line is the death rate is 1-2% compared to the 0.1% for seasonal flu.

There are really only 3 choices. Herd immunity through a vaccine, Test and trace and isolation. There is no herd immunity from any of the 6 other Corona viruses that affect human beings. You could expose the whole country and not get to herd immunity. We also don't know how long immunity will last. We just don't know. So why risk getting everyone infected with extra deaths to get immunity for 6 months? Who would be foolish enough to risk this.
We do know this. There is overwhelming medical evidence that close prolonged contact with an infected person spreads this virus. Avoiding this close and prolonged contact is essential.

html.rhhz.net/zhlxbx/028.htm

Active Monitoring of Persons Exposed to Patients with Confirmed...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext

Household Secondary Attack Rate of COVID-19 and Associated Determinants

characteristics of household transmission of COVID-19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30607-3/fulltext

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2765641?utm_campaign=articlePDF%26utm_medium%3darticlePDFlink%26utm_source%3darticlePDF%26utm_content%3djamainternmed.2020.202
0

Cluster of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in the French Alps, 2020

Children are unlikely to have been the primary source of household SARS-CoV-2 infections

I have 10 more just like that show pretty much without a doubt close prolonged contact with infected human beings is to be avoided. Since we don't know who is infected we need to avoid people.
Click to expand...

The point of those videos if anyone finished watching them point out everything you're saying as wrong. And these are top experts in their respective fields.

Isolation which will lead to far greater human toll than the virus. Its devestating effects are being felt already by millions of Americans.

It's easy for you to preach social distancing because u have a nice job, nice home and get a fat paycheck and order grubhub when you feel like it. Then you can sit back and finish watching your favorite show on Netflix or reply back to me on this forum.

If you and your family have to wait in line at a food pantry for hours or worry about your next paycheck, you would be singing a different tune.
 
LazyPharmacist2.0 said:
The point of those videos if anyone finished watching them point out everything you're saying as wrong. And these are top experts in their respective fields.

Isolation which will lead to far greater human toll than the virus. Its devestating effects are being felt already by millions of Americans.

It's easy for you to preach social distancing because u have a nice job, nice home and get a fat paycheck and order grubhub when you feel like it. Then you can sit back and finish watching your favorite show on Netflix or reply back to me on this forum.

If you and your family have to wait in line at a food pantry for hours or worry about your next paycheck, you would be singing a different tune.
Click to expand...
I'll watch all of them for you. They are not experts in Medicine or public health and that's all I care about. I don't read news reports I read the evidence. The evidence is overwhelming.

As for the economic dislocation. It didn't have to happen at all. The President of the United States is about the biggest *****, a-hole, dip-****, pea brained idiot to ever hold the office.

All they need to do to do is pass a law saying any furloughed employee will be paid 100% of their salary for a period of X months. The employers pay and are reimbursed by the Government. Any company found to deliberatley defraud the USA will be sentenced to 100 years in prison. No ecominc dislocation at all. Don't confuse bad economic policy with bad medical policy.

And I am 100% correct. There are seven known Corona viruses that effect human beings. There is no herd immunity from any of them and there is no vaccine for any of them. There is no way to get to herd immunity be exposure.
 
Old Timer said:
As for the economic dislocation. It didn't have to happen at all. The President of the United States is about the biggest *****, a-hole, dip-****, pea brained idiot to ever hold the office.
Click to expand...

Not to defend any conspiracy theories as I too prefer to read the data. But... have you lost your mind? The economic dislocation didn't have to happen at all? Are you familiar with basic principles of economics?

People aren't working. Meanwhile, restaurants close, shifting food demand to grocers. Grocers can't expand supply chains fast enough to meet demand. Food prices increase as a result, forcing people to pay more for food while they have no income other than government stimulus. This happened. It's not an imagined scenario.

Can you explain how this "didn't have to happen at all"?

Old Timer said:
All they need to do to do is pass a law saying any furloughed employee will be paid 100% of their salary for a period of X months. The employers pay and are reimbursed by the Government.
Click to expand...

So that's your solution? Plant more money trees and just "pass a law" to replace the entire economy. Money doesn't grow on trees, not even during pandemic.

I'm guessing your solution to climate change is similar: "All we have to do is stop using fossil fuels, it's so easy."

I think you lack perspective.
 
lane one said:
So that's your solution? Plant more money trees and just "pass a law" to replace the entire economy. Money doesn't grow on trees, not even during pandemic.
Click to expand...

Money doesn't grow on trees, but it does come from a printer. Wasn't the first COVID-19 relief bill funded by just printing new money? They can do that all they want. It isn't consequence free but it can be done.
 
gwarm01 said:
Money doesn't grow on trees, but it does come from a printer. Wasn't the first COVID-19 relief bill funded by just printing new money? They can do that all they want. It isn't consequence free but it can be done.
Click to expand...

Yes, the first relief bill printed money to address a very short-term lack of revenue. The issue is the "X number of months" part. Short-term stimulus is feasible, replacing the entire consumer economy for 12+ months is not.
 
lane one said:
Not to defend any conspiracy theories as I too prefer to read the data. But... have you lost your mind? The economic dislocation didn't have to happen at all? Are you familiar with basic principles of economics?

People aren't working. Meanwhile, restaurants close, shifting food demand to grocers. Grocers can't expand supply chains fast enough to meet demand. Food prices increase as a result, forcing people to pay more for food while they have no income other than government stimulus. This happened. It's not an imagined scenario.

Can you explain how this "didn't have to happen at all"?



So that's your solution? Plant more money trees and just "pass a law" to replace the entire economy. Money doesn't grow on trees, not even during pandemic.

I'm guessing your solution to climate change is similar: "All we have to do is stop using fossil fuels, it's so easy."

I think you lack perspective.
Click to expand...
I love how he always starts with an insult lol "you *****s, aholes, idiots, murders, Martha Fockers" There is a reason why someone is loud and aggressive in their arguments. Usually, they're too annoying and without much substance to listen to.

Unemployment rate hitting close to 20% which should be all time high in history of measuring unemployment yet people still want to keep the country closed. For what? a virus that barely killed anyone healthy?
 
Old Timer said:
I'll watch all of them for you. They are not experts in Medicine or public health and that's all I care about. I don't read news reports I read the evidence. The evidence is overwhelming.

As for the economic dislocation. It didn't have to happen at all. The President of the United States is about the biggest *****, a-hole, dip-****, pea brained idiot to ever hold the office.

All they need to do to do is pass a law saying any furloughed employee will be paid 100% of their salary for a period of X months. The employers pay and are reimbursed by the Government. Any company found to deliberatley defraud the USA will be sentenced to 100 years in prison. No ecominc dislocation at all. Don't confuse bad economic policy with bad medical policy.

And I am 100% correct. There are seven known Corona viruses that effect human beings. There is no herd immunity from any of them and there is no vaccine for any of them. There is no way to get to herd immunity be exposure.
Click to expand...

My parents own their business. They're pretty well off so they didn't need the money but asked for it anyways so they could pay their employees, PPP loan was approved for 20% of what they originally asked for and had to use their own money to pay their people. This is a $#!tshow. It needs to stop. Economy has to open back up ASAP. Some times using common sense helps. Look around you. How many people you know have actually died from covid19? vs. how many people being laid of that you personally know of? For me that number is 0 vs. lost count after more than 20 people (offline and online).
 
For me, it is 2. Not close family but I know who they are. Is your point that unless your immediate family that died that it is all good?
 
gwarm01 said:
Money doesn't grow on trees, but it does come from a printer. Wasn't the first COVID-19 relief bill funded by just printing new money? They can do that all they want. It isn't consequence free but it can be done.
Click to expand...
No, I believe the first funds came from government bonds. We didn't print this time like we did back in 2009.
 
M0df said:
For me, it is 2. Not close family but I know who they are. Is your point that unless your immediate family that died that it is all good?
Click to expand...
Why would I refer my immediate family as someone I know online? lol

Of those two, what were their underlying conditions? age? their location?
 
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Lol? I said 2 people died. One is a relative and another one is a father of a friend. And you give a lol?
 
VictorOfHungerGames said:
My parents own their business. They're pretty well off so they didn't need the money but asked for it anyways so they could pay their employees, PPP loan was approved for 20% of what they originally asked for and had to use their own money to pay their people. This is a $#!tshow. It needs to stop. Economy has to open back up ASAP. Some times using common sense helps. Look around you. How many people you know have actually died from covid19? vs. how many people being laid of that you personally know of? For me that number is 0 vs. lost count after more than 20 people (offline and online).
Click to expand...

The number deaths is not what they initially portrayed it to be, that is an obvious assessment most people can readily observe but choose not to for various reasons. The gutting of small business is an intentional consequence of this pandemic. Most small business have not or cannot receive the federal aid that was promised to them.
 
Also, the number of COVID deaths has been greatly exaggerated due to how doctors are forced to list the cause of death as COVID. So a person can for example die from a myocardial infarction but if they had tested positive for COVID, the MD writes COVID as the cause of death even though there is no clear reason as to why COVID was the contributing factor.

There is a huge difference between someone dying WITH Covid and FROM Covid
 
LazyPharmacist2.0 said:
Also, the number of COVID deaths has been greatly exaggerated due to how doctors are forced to list the cause of death as COVID. So a person can for example die from a myocardial infarction but if they had tested positive for COVID, the MD writes COVID as the cause of death even though there is no clear reason as to why COVID was the contributing factor.

There is a huge difference between someone dying WITH Covid and FROM Covid
Click to expand...
I've posted many videos and articles about this. Somehow, people just refuse to believe this lol
 
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M0df said:
Lol? I said 2 people died. One is a relative and another one is a father of a friend. And you give a lol?
Click to expand...
lol was to the fact that you were asking a dumb question. You asked "Is your point that unless your immediate family that died that it is all good?"

Interesting how you're trying to manipulate. I feel like you're purposely trying to turn this into a toxic convo. I'll ignore you.
 
You asked a question if anyone knows someone who died. You wanted to show that Covid issues are way overblown.

I said I do know and now you're looking for their demographics to make a different point. Yes, one of them was over 65 from Brooklyn. I am not their PCP to ask for more.

You are right. It is internet and I am lying. Carry on your serious conversation.
 
owlegrad said:
Is there an underlining condition, age, or location that would make their deaths more or less relevant? What is the purpose to these questions?
Click to expand...

The point is that many people that have died from COVID were elderly and had underlining conditions. Especially in Italy, >90% were very old and had 2 or more comorbidities.
 
owlegrad said:
Is there an underlining condition, age, or location that would make their deaths more or less relevant? What is the purpose to these questions?
Click to expand...
Because covid19 kills based on underlying conditions and age and death rate is significantly different depending on location. So if you're living in places like NY, knowing 2 people who died would be different than someone in Montana. We can't treat each case the same right? Which is why we can't just have the whole country shut down? Texas shouldn't be shutting down just because California decided to panic and shut down when there is almost no significance in covid19 death rate. Especially once the falsified reporting have been corrected.
 
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