The Great SDN Survey of 2015: No II by Turkey = No MD or nah?

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Lucca

Lucca

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https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/J9FVCM2


Title stolen from @Dr Tony T. Chopper 's post in the no II by turkey thread.

If you have already completed at least one application cycle please click the link above to (anonymously, I'm not saving your IP addresses) answer a 9 question survey aimed at answering the questions:

Do earlier applicants fare better in admissions? How much better? How early is "early"? How does the LizzyM of an applicant correlate alongside their application date to predict acceptance?

and most importantly, does no II by turkey = no md?

Maybe we will learn a thing or two. The survey is not exhaustive of all of the confounding variables that could be present but I don't have a premium subscription to survey monkey so I cant ask unlimited questions lol. If there is a reason to believe from the data that something else might be at work, we can design a separate survey to fill in the blanks.

It's quick so it won't take up much of your time! Thanks for participating.
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Good idea, but some of the responses aren't mutually exclusive. What would someone with a LizzyM of 70 select? 60-70 or 70-80? One other thing that sticks out to me (that could quite possibly not be a big deal) is the massive range in the LizzyM selections. 61 is drastically different from 69. If you're not using continuous variables, perhaps break that one down into groups that are more realistic of people who are applying, similar to what you did for GPA and MCAT?
 
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Just a suggestion you may want to add when you are complete...I was verified earlier and not complete until early Sept.
 
Lawper said:
Good way to test out the LizzyM turkey heuristic. However, the sample uses SDN, so it may be small and biased. :chicken::chicken:

Yes I know it's a chicken and not a turkey but close enough
Click to expand...

"may be small and biased"

Sounds like LizzyM herself. 😉
 
xc_stallion92 said:
Good idea, but some of the responses aren't mutually exclusive. What would someone with a LizzyM of 70 select? 60-70 or 70-80? One other thing that sticks out to me (that could quite possibly not be a big deal) is the massive range in the LizzyM selections. 61 is drastically different from 69. If you're not using continuous variables, perhaps break that one down into groups that are more realistic of people who are applying, similar to what you did for GPA and MCAT?
Click to expand...

Yah that's my bad on the 60-70, 70-80 front, I neglected it. I'll fix it.


edit: the survey has been edited to include a completion date and smaller LizzyM bins, so you may want to redo it if you already sent it in. Also, I removed the # of schools applied to question (I can only have 10 so I chose the least important one).
 
Lucca said:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/J9FVCM2


Title stolen from @Dr Tony T. Chopper 's post in the no II by turkey thread.

If you have already completed at least one application cycle please click the link above to (anonymously, I'm not saving your IP addresses) answer a 9 question survey aimed at answering the questions:

Do earlier applicants fare better in admissions? How much better? How early is "early"? How does the LizzyM of an applicant correlate alongside their application date to predict acceptance?

and most importantly, does no II by turkey = no md?

Maybe we will learn a thing or two. The survey is not exhaustive of all of the confounding variables that could be present but I don't have a premium subscription to survey monkey so I cant ask unlimited questions lol. If there is a reason to believe from the data that something else might be at work, we can design a separate survey to fill in the blanks.

It's quick so it won't take up much of your time! Thanks for participating.
Click to expand...
Reported.

You should be studying for the mcat. 😉
 
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I think if you haven't received an II by Thanksgiving, you should treat the cycle as if you have been rejected, take a couple weeks off to decompress and then really hit it hard in terms of improving your app.
 
order66.exe said:
I think if you haven't received an II by Thanksgiving, you should treat the cycle as if you have been rejected, take a couple weeks off to decompress and then really hit it hard in terms of improving your app.
Click to expand...
You should always be looking to improve your app until you have an acceptance. I totally agree. But I do think there are more invites this cycle so its too early to give up hope. Just today someone get their first invite. It can happen...it only takes one.
 
medic86 said:
!

Did you just call LizzyM fat?

May you rest in pieces.
Click to expand...

No i didn't!!!! It can be misinterpreted that way but i was referring to large as in grand, epic and of significant importance, as opposed to being small, insignificant etc.

....

..... i'm getting punished now aren't i? 🙁

fire-hell-gif.gif
 
if only you prefaced* your statement, you'd be fine. But now you are permabanned, it was nice knowing you...

*it's not personal/no offense/not to be sexist/I say this out of love... but... you're fat
Lawper said:
No i didn't!!!! It can be misinterpreted that way but i was referring to large as in grand, epic and of significant importance, as opposed to being small, insignificant etc.

....

..... i'm getting punished now aren't i? 🙁
Click to expand...
 
So serious/on-topic time before i get tossed into the burning pits in the Earth's core for my accidental slip up.

order66.exe said:
I think if you haven't received an II by Thanksgiving, you should treat the cycle as if you have been rejected, take a couple weeks off to decompress and then really hit it hard in terms of improving your app.
Click to expand...
whatsupdr said:
You should always be looking to improve your app until you have an acceptance. I totally agree. But I do think there are more invites this cycle so its too early to give up hope. Just today someone get their first invite. It can happen...it only takes one.
Click to expand...

What i like about the LizzyM turkey metric is that it provides a pretty solid estimation of when you should be worried and preparing to reapply. No IIs by Thanksgiving would provide a clear view and at least 6 months of time to improve all the weaknesses and send in the apps on time in June of the next cycle.

This indicator helps because there are reports saying that many schools have nearly given out >>50% of the interviews already by December so expecting one in a small pile is difficult.

What i am curious is.... can this metric be generalized for people with say only 1-2 IIs? We hear that 3 IIs result in roughly one acceptance, but say we have only 2 IIs on February. Is that a sign for concern?
 
I think you made a mistake not grouping MCAT and GPA ranges by the same brackets in AAMC table 24:

3.2-3.39, 3.4-3.59...
30-32, 33-35...

There's a bigger difference between 33 and 30 than 33 and 35 and a 30-33 range can't differentiate that.

Just nit picking
 
Lucca said:
I'm mostly interested in seeing if high GPA low MCAT or high MCAT low GPA applicants fared differently than their peers depending on when they applied
Click to expand...
piii said:
I think you made a mistake not grouping MCAT and GPA ranges by the same brackets in AAMC table 24:

3.2-3.39, 3.4-3.59...
30-32, 33-35...

There's a bigger difference between 33 and 30 than 33 and 35 and a 30-33 range can't differentiate that.

Just nit picking
Click to expand...

Adding on to this, why is there a question on LizzyM score ranges when the follow up questions ask separately for GPA and MCAT ranges?
 
piii said:
I think you made a mistake not grouping MCAT and GPA ranges by the same brackets in AAMC table 24:

3.2-3.39, 3.4-3.59...
30-32, 33-35...

There's a bigger difference between 33 and 30 than 33 and 35 and a 30-33 range can't differentiate that.

Just nit picking
Click to expand...

I'll take a look at the percentile differences between the scores and make a judgement call on this, you may be right. I guess I'm less interested in what the number might mean than the actual number itself. It seems to me there is no magical threshold and to an adcom higher is just better
 
Lawper said:
Right i understand but what purpose do the LizzyM score ranges serve? Isn't that covered separately and completely by GPA and MCAT ranges?
Click to expand...

It's probably so s/he can make a chart/graph for LizzyM scores without having to convert each GPA/MCAT breakdown first. 😛
 
Lucca said:
I'll take a look at the percentile differences between the scores and make a judgement call on this, you may be right. I guess I'm less interested in what the number might mean than the actual number itself. It seems to me there is no magical threshold and to an adcom higher is just better
Click to expand...
Well a 30 = 77th%, 33 = 91st%, 35 = 95th%. There's a big difference between top 9% and top 23rd%. They're on different sides of the accepted average.
 
I put in the information that I knew for a friend who received invites starting in December and wound up getting at least 3 acceptances (though a couple of those were post-waitlist) in the end. Probably not common, but that's the one no II by Thanksgiving = still MD example I know.
 
Does the reported LizzyM include the sometimes-but-not-consistently-used +1 correction factor or nah?
 
Dont do it just to box check, do it for the great leader. Maybe also consider doing a DIY postbac in Syria as a refugee for starvation immersion and cultural diversity.
NotaCop said:
Extremely close! 177 22.75 23

Anybody know if my BMI is competitive at top 20 schools? I'm considering doing a gap year of hard labor in North Korea to get it in a better place but I'm not sure how adcoms view that type of EC...
Click to expand...
 
OK I filled it out for this most recent cycle, which is ironically the only cycle I haven't had interviews COMPLETE by Turkey Day. In full disclosure

1st cycle : 1 interview complete by Thanksgiving (R on Thanksgiving)
2nd cycle : 1 interview complete by Thanksgiving (Silence), 1 II in December for Jan spot (WL)
3rd cycle : 2 interviews complete by Thanksgiving (one R, one WL), 1 II in Dec for Feb spot (R), 1 II in Jan for Feb spot (WL)
4th cycle : 1 II in Jan for Feb spot (Silence), 1 II in Feb for March spot (WL->A). Both were last day interviews. I am going to the one who interviewed me in March. 🙂
 
Here are some preliminary results with an n=59 as of the last time I checked.


1. It looks like we're approaching a bell curve for MCAT scores and GPA (MCAT centered at 30 and GPA centered around 3.6) so we're getting some broad sampling which is nice.

2. SDNers are early appliers! The vast majority of respondents were complete and verified before mid July. Most were verified before the end of June.

3. About 30% of respondents received an acceptance to a school for which they received the II after thanksgiving, however of that cohort only 17% (3 of 18) received an acceptance after only receiving IIs after thanksgiving. N is still a bit small to draw any conclusions and n=3 of 59 does not inspire confidence in this most-likely-very-biased respondent cohort but I'm leaving the survey open for a while longer.

The 3 applicants who received acceptances after only receiving IIs after Thanksgiving were in the 51-55, 66-70 and 66-70 LizzyM ranges. They received 1,1, and 3 total acceptances, respectively.
 
Lucca said:
Here are some preliminary results with an n=59 as of the last time I checked.


1. It looks like we're approaching a bell curve for MCAT scores and GPA (MCAT centered at 30 and GPA centered around 3.6) so we're getting some broad sampling which is nice.

2. SDNers are early appliers! The vast majority of respondents were complete and verified before mid July. Most were verified before the end of June.

3. About 30% of respondents received an acceptance to a school for which they received the II after thanksgiving, however of that cohort only 17% (3 of 18) received an acceptance after only receiving IIs after thanksgiving. N is still a bit small to draw any conclusions and n=3 of 59 does not inspire confidence in this most-likely-very-biased respondent cohort but I'm leaving the survey open for a while longer.

The 3 applicants who received acceptances after only receiving IIs after Thanksgiving were in the 51-55, 66-70 and 66-70 LizzyM ranges. They received 1,1, and 3 total acceptances, respectively.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit skeptical about the 51-55 acceptance. I applied last year, got no interviews and obviously had no acceptances. This year, I got two MD IIs before Thanksgiving and now have acceptances at both. We still have a couple months in the cycle but I think that no IIs by Thanksgiving warrants a hard look at your application and making plans to correct any deficiencies.
 
livinginlalaland said:
I'm a bit skeptical about the 51-55 acceptance. I applied last year, got no interviews and obviously had no acceptances. This year, I got two MD IIs before Thanksgiving and now have acceptances at both. We still have a couple months in the cycle but I think that no IIs by Thanksgiving warrants a hard look at your application and making plans to correct any deficiencies.
Click to expand...

Ummm... that score was mine. It was calculated by the old SDN spreadsheet which was all the rage a few years ago. It was an MCAT issue that never did get resolved and my GPA was average even though I pulled straight As for several years. I had a lot of credits since I was in college for over 16 years. It said I was 54 or something. This is one reason people say LizzyMs are really not the best way to look at non-trads.

You are not the first person who is skeptical of me and my ability to get into medical school, so I am taking your comments with a pinch of salt. I think it is also ironic that the year I apply to only 3 schools, I get interviews at 2, and get an acceptance on traffic day to a school that had interviewed me three times. My full list of interviews and such with the aforementioned crappy LizzyM are in a previous post on this thread.
 
Last edited:
familyaerospace said:
Ummm... that score was mine. It was calculated by the old SDN spreadsheet which was all the rage a few years ago. It was an MCAT issue that never did get resolved and my GPA was average even though I pulled straight As for several years. I had a lot of credits since I was in college for over 16 years. It said I was 54 or something. This is one reason people say LizzyMs are really not the best way to look at non-trans.

You are not the first person who is skeptical of me and my ability to get into medical school, so I am taking your comments with a pinch of salt. I think it is also ironic that the year I apply to only 3 schools, I get interviews at 2, and get an acceptance on traffic day to a school that had interviewed me three times. My full list of interviews and such with the aforementioned crappy LizzyM are in a previous post on this thread.
Click to expand...

I really admire your determination to be able to apply for 4 years in a row without giving up.

How did you deal with the rejections and silence each year? What did you do between cycles to improve your app? How did you answer interview questions about being a reapplicant?
 
LuluLovesMe said:
I really admire your determination to be able to apply for 4 years in a row without giving up.

How did you deal with the rejections and silence each year? What did you do between cycles to improve your app? How did you answer interview questions about being a reapplicant?
Click to expand...

1) I was not really happy to be honest, but what can you do? It's not like I have never been rejected before in other situations. In the real world, you know you are going to get a huge amount of nos for one yes for no matter what you do. That is life. I've gotten thousands of nos in my life. I've taken 16 years to get to a goal. If a single year's worth of rejection from medical school will get you to stop applying, you probably shouldn't be a doctor. Patients deserve to have people who will not be discouraged by a setback or a challenge.

2) I keep trying to retake the MCAT, my MCAT continued to suck. I got in with a 25 and I am not even the lowest MCAT in my class. No other changes were made from year to year, not even on most of my essays. My ECs were maxed from years ago. If you get interviews, your numbers are obviously ok.

3) Do you know how many times me being a reapplicant has come up in all my interviews? Exactly once and I was a reapplicant to at least four schools, some I reapplied to three and four years in a row. The only time it was mentioned was when MCG interview year 2 said "You know, I read the notes from last year and your interviewer said you seemed nervous. I don't see that at all." I was still waitlisted... that was the third year I applied there. Two years later he ran up to greet me after class saying he remembered me. 🙂

edit : apparently I really cannot spell today
 
@Lucca

I would also be interested in seeing if there's a difference between those who go through their school committees or not. At least for my school, our school committee sends letters out late and am therefore complete fairly late at many schools. So there's a big differentiation between AMCAS complete (6/~10) vs. Application complete (8/~20) for me.

There might even be a difference in terms of whether a committee seems to hold great weight or not - but that may also be related to the school one attends which is something ELSE that could be added.

Anyway just thinking out loud here. I do realize that getting all of this information might be impossible.
 
Yangeranggg said:
@Lucca

I would also be interested in seeing if there's a difference between those who go through their school committees or not. At least for my school, our school committee sends letters out late and am therefore complete fairly late at many schools. So there's a big differentiation between AMCAS complete (6/~10) vs. Application complete (8/~20) for me.

There might even be a difference in terms of whether a committee seems to hold great weight or not - but that may also be related to the school one attends which is something ELSE that could be added.

Anyway just thinking out loud here. I do realize that getting all of this information might be impossible.
Click to expand...

It would explain why some people are later than others. The downside is that the overwhelming majority of respondents were verified and complete very early. I was hoping for more of a distribution so I could try to sniff out a pattern between application date, LizzyM and success and maybe ask some more questions but it seems like that won't happen. I would have loved to put like 10 more questions on the survey but I don't have the premium survey monkey sub 😛. Maybe SDN can pay for one and I'll do more structured, more thought out surveys in the future 😉
 
Lucca said:
Here are some preliminary results with an n=59 as of the last time I checked.


1. It looks like we're approaching a bell curve for MCAT scores and GPA (MCAT centered at 30 and GPA centered around 3.6) so we're getting some broad sampling which is nice.

2. SDNers are early appliers! The vast majority of respondents were complete and verified before mid July. Most were verified before the end of June.

3. About 30% of respondents received an acceptance to a school for which they received the II after thanksgiving, however of that cohort only 17% (3 of 18) received an acceptance after only receiving IIs after thanksgiving. N is still a bit small to draw any conclusions and n=3 of 59 does not inspire confidence in this most-likely-very-biased respondent cohort but I'm leaving the survey open for a while longer.

The 3 applicants who received acceptances after only receiving IIs after Thanksgiving were in the 51-55, 66-70 and 66-70 LizzyM ranges. They received 1,1, and 3 total acceptances, respectively.
Click to expand...
Can you show us the data?
 
Yangeranggg said:
@Lucca

I would also be interested in seeing if there's a difference between those who go through their school committees or not. At least for my school, our school committee sends letters out late and am therefore complete fairly late at many schools. So there's a big differentiation between AMCAS complete (6/~10) vs. Application complete (8/~20) for me.

There might even be a difference in terms of whether a committee seems to hold great weight or not - but that may also be related to the school one attends which is something ELSE that could be added.

Anyway just thinking out loud here. I do realize that getting all of this information might be impossible.
Click to expand...

There are 3 months between 8/20 and Thanksgiving Day. That is enough time to review an application and issue an ii.
 
1) If you have received 1-3 IIs by now does that increase the odds of getting any more? Or are the chances of more for folks in this category still low?

2) Is there any evidence that schools are in fact more inundated than usual and that the overall process is behind by a few weeks? I've read that there are schools where applicants had everything submitted by early August who still haven't been deemed "complete" (e.g. UVM).

3) Is this in fact going to be a record year in terms of total apps and median GPAs and MCATs?
 
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