I know that the doom-and-gloom BLS stats have been discussed at length on here since they were originally published about a year ago, but I don't think anyone has referenced the HRSA job market prediction statistics. These appear to be similar in concept to the BLS projections, but they're more specific to various health professions. Their pharmacist job market predictions were most recently updated in 2014:
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/pharmacists.pdf
As you can see, the government predicts that there will be an oversupply of approximately 50,000 pharmacists by 2025. This statistic seems to corroborate the BLS predictions. However, I was surprised to read the findings of the equivalent HRSA reports for NPs and PAs:
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...rimary-care-national-projections2013-2025.pdf
As you can see, the HRSA predicts that by 2025, there will be an oversupply of ~42,000 NPs, as well as an oversupply of ~20,000 PAs. Also, the HRSA projections don't seem to take into account the fact that NP (as well as PA) programs are popping up like mushrooms all over the country, so the NPs could very well have reached the status of graduating 48,000 - 50,000 too many NPs by 2025, just like pharmacy schools are projected to be. In fact, one of the local universities in my area just opened an NP program that will graduate its first class next year. They're taking 75+ students per year and aren't requiring any previous nursing experience. Right now, there are 5+ pages of FT/PT jobs for NPs/PAs in my area posted on Indeed.com... I wonder how much longer that will last for?
I think there is actually a silver lining here for pharmacy. As stated above, the HRSA published their pharmacy profession report in 2014. It's also been known for 4-5 years now that the pharmacy job market has been in a state of oversaturation, so in a sense, pharmacy has already hit "rock bottom," with some schools already experiencing difficulty filling their most recent classes. Could it be that there will be some sort of market correction for the pharmacy profession by 2025, whereas the NP/PA professions will just then be hitting the rock bottom that pharmacy is currently wallowing at?
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/projections/pharmacists.pdf
As you can see, the government predicts that there will be an oversupply of approximately 50,000 pharmacists by 2025. This statistic seems to corroborate the BLS predictions. However, I was surprised to read the findings of the equivalent HRSA reports for NPs and PAs:
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...rimary-care-national-projections2013-2025.pdf
As you can see, the HRSA predicts that by 2025, there will be an oversupply of ~42,000 NPs, as well as an oversupply of ~20,000 PAs. Also, the HRSA projections don't seem to take into account the fact that NP (as well as PA) programs are popping up like mushrooms all over the country, so the NPs could very well have reached the status of graduating 48,000 - 50,000 too many NPs by 2025, just like pharmacy schools are projected to be. In fact, one of the local universities in my area just opened an NP program that will graduate its first class next year. They're taking 75+ students per year and aren't requiring any previous nursing experience. Right now, there are 5+ pages of FT/PT jobs for NPs/PAs in my area posted on Indeed.com... I wonder how much longer that will last for?
I think there is actually a silver lining here for pharmacy. As stated above, the HRSA published their pharmacy profession report in 2014. It's also been known for 4-5 years now that the pharmacy job market has been in a state of oversaturation, so in a sense, pharmacy has already hit "rock bottom," with some schools already experiencing difficulty filling their most recent classes. Could it be that there will be some sort of market correction for the pharmacy profession by 2025, whereas the NP/PA professions will just then be hitting the rock bottom that pharmacy is currently wallowing at?