The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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In order for you to be successful at speculation, you need to be right two times: (1) when you to buy and (2) when you to sell.

What if the market dropped 10%, are you going to buy? What if it dropped another 10%? Are you going to sell? Remember in order for you to "buy", someone must "sell" so if the other guy sells, then he's betting that the price will drop. Who's going to be right? What knowledge do you have that he doesn't have?
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what a remarkable bull run! how is everyone doing with their investments?
 
BMBiology said:
what a remarkable bull run! how is everyone doing with their investments?
Click to expand...

Your cumulative personal rate of return during this period: 32.1872%
Starting:10/23/12 Ending: 10/22/13

By the way: I generally have a 15% stop loss order. I don't need to ride it all the way to the bottom....
 
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what is your 1/1/13 to 10/22/13 return rate?
 
BMBiology said:
what is your 1/1/13 to 10/22/13 return rate?
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My 401K : 14.5 %

My Investing Etrade Account : 120%

My speculation day-trading account : 30% (not doing well as I wanted....but still has more room for improvement).
 
401k
3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years Since Inception Inception Date
7.99% 16.60% 19.28% 13.35% 16.99% 05/31/2009

I don't like how Tesla CEO presented himself too much stuttering -.-; Facebook CEO or any other CEO is much more polished in public speaking.
[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmQb94EF1UY#t=1488[/YOUTUBE]
 
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Momus said:
401k
3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years Since Inception Inception Date
7.99% 16.60% 19.28% 13.35% 16.99% 05/31/2009

I don't like how Tesla CEO presented himself too much stuttering -.-; Facebook CEO or any other CEO is much more polished in public speaking.
[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmQb94EF1UY#t=1488[/YOUTUBE]
Click to expand...

Mark Zuckerberg is polished in speaking?
 
roll over 401k/roth IRA:
YTD: 20.78%, after subtracting out additional contributions made this year.

Biggest winner: fidelity extended market index, up 30.7% in 12 months.
Biggest loser: spartasn emerging market index, up 0.48% in 12 months.

Play money account: up like 200% little over a year, mostly due to bank of america stock
 
401(k), Roth IRA and taxable investment account are up about 18% YTD
House is up about 20%
Damn Obama! lol :p

Company stock is up about 58% YTD but I also have options which triple my gains.
Damn the CEO! :p
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
YTD: 19.7082%
10/23/12-10/22/13: 21.9808%

I'm really glad I'm in VEXRX...freaking 36% YTD...good gawd...
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xiphoid2010 said:
roll over 401k/roth IRA:
YTD: 20.78%, after subtracting out additional contributions made this year.

Biggest winner: fidelity extended market index, up 30.7% in 12 months.
Biggest loser: spartasn emerging market index, up 0.48% in 12 months.

Play money account: up like 200% little over a year, mostly due to bank of america stock
Click to expand...

Both growth oriented. It's great in the bull market but I don't want to be in it when a downturn comes. These fund tend to be hit the hardest during a bear market. Small growth historically is overpriced. I like value oriented fund better.

In 9 months, a house in SD I bought 565k went up to 662k, that's kind of ridiculous.
 
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Do I hear bell ringing at the top? Signs of peak optimism? Anybody left to buy? Are the shorts still in the market to cover?

I would heed Oldtimer's advice. Let's hope the stops can perform in a flash crash.

It's possible the S&P could triple from here. But it might also crash bigtime before doing so.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-23/mark-spitznagel-warns-todays-distorted-market-set-major-crash

You cowboys can play in this casino. I'm too chicken. I'll wait for the end game. Best of luck. Don't get hurt.
 
Momus said:
Both growth oriented. It's great in the bull market but I don't want to be in it when a downturn comes. These fund tend to be hit the hardest during a bear market. Small growth historically is overpriced. I like value oriented fund better.

In 9 months, a house in SD I bought 565k went up to 662k, that's kind of ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Got S&P500, mid, small cap indices, MSCI EAFE, emerging market, a bit of tech.. basically diversified equity but no bonds. Hence the average of 20.78 instead of 30% :)

According to Zillow, my house is estimated to be up like 20%. I'm not sure I believe it. In the worst hit market in Cali, yeah, maybe. But Texas market faired relatively well during the crash. Hope it's not a rebound bubble.
 
is it me or just guys reply to this thread?
 
BMBiology said:
is it me or just guys reply to this thread?
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This is a common theme to all the girls I met; 9/10 girls have no clue about personal finance/investment. They care more about how to spend the money, their looks, their drama, and their babies.
 
xiphoid2010 said:
Got S&P500, mid, small cap indices, MSCI EAFE, emerging market, a bit of tech.. basically diversified equity but no bonds. Hence the average of 20.78 instead of 30% :)

According to Zillow, my house is estimated to be up like 20%. I'm not sure I believe it. In the worst hit market in Cali, yeah, maybe. But Texas market faired relatively well during the crash. Hope it's not a rebound bubble.
Click to expand...

me too. s&p 500, large cap, small cap, international but no bonds since I'm young.
 
MackandBlues said:
What would you recommend my portfolio be % wise in regards to large cap, small cap, international, etc?
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That's up to you to decide how much risk you want to take and how much exposure to international you want, and how complex you want your portfolio to be. For some people, 2 funds is all they need, I like mine a little bit more complex than that.

Personally, with taxable, I go 90/10 stock/bond, 70/30 large/small value 70/30 domestic/international - within international 70/30 develop/emerging market. With my ROTH = all REITS.

Read up some books: (hint: these books are free if you know where to find them online.... >_>)
-All About Asset Allocation - Rick Ferri
-The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan - Larry Swedroe

If that's too much, just copy any of these sample portfolio, they are a good start:
http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

Arguing the minutiae is not wise; the most important thing is just to stick to one well designed portfolio you can sleep with and keep tucking money away.
 
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I recently started working as an rph for cvs a few months ago and have been contributing to the 401k. Is there a minimum contribution as to when I'm allowed to rollover my funds to another retirement plan? Let's say I were to move on to another job within the next few months
 
Jell0 said:
I recently started working as an rph for cvs a few months ago and have been contributing to the 401k. Is there a minimum contribution as to when I'm allowed to rollover my funds to another retirement plan? Let's say I were to move on to another job within the next few months
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No, your money you contributed is your money to take with you anywhere. Only matching contribution can be taken away if it is not vested.
 
Recently, I have been investing and gambling the most speculative and volatile currency, bitcoins from just-dice.com. The casino has 1% house edge which is VERY reasonable for a simple game. You can also be the investor/the house. The owner, dooglus is in investor in the website and makes about 25 btc/week ~$7500. Average daily profit for investor is 0.1%. You can gamble as low as 0.0000001 btc (less than 1 cent). Yesterday, I burned 5 hours for a couple dollars max, can't beat this vs real casino where I played for 10 mins and blow $50 easy >_>.

Rarely, you can also strike it rich, like a guy who won 7000 bitcoins there ($300/each btc). I hope to strike it rich also LOL or lose $100 for fun >_>;
 
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Momus said:
Recently, I have been investing and gambling the most speculative and volatile currency, bitcoins from just-dice.com. The casino has 1% house edge which is VERY reasonable for a simple game. You can also be the investor/the house. The owner, dooglus is in investor in the website and makes about 25 btc/week ~$7500. Average daily profit for investor is 0.1%. You can gamble as low as 0.0000001 btc (less than 1 cent). Yesterday, I burned 5 hours for a couple dollars max, can't beat this vs real casino where I played for 10 mins and blow $50 easy >_>.

Rarely, you can also strike it rich, like a guy who won 7000 bitcoins there ($300/each btc). I hope to strike it rich also LOL or lose $100 for fun >_>;
Click to expand...
The same bitcoins used on TOR and Silk Road? Very interesting currency system to say the least.
 
homeslice said:
Anybody have thoughts on investing in any of the major/upcoming 3-D printing companies (XONE, DDD, SSYS, ONVO) out there? ONVO is particularly intriguing to me as far as biotech applications are concerned. They all seem pretty largely overvalued at the moment, but I can't help but think I'd be missing out once the technology really takes off.
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Yeesh. Glad I took a risk on ONVO. Pretty ridiculous action the past few weeks.
 
Anybody thinks 2014 will be a strong growth year? a lot of optimism out there
 
BMBiology said:
Anybody thinks 2014 will be a strong growth year? a lot of optimism out there
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Unless the recovery pick up some serious steam, the bull is bound to run out of steam soon. I am guessing single digit gain next year with possibly a correction in the middle. Planning on starting to put 20% of into bonds, which so far has been zero.
 
Bitcoin was $300 11/08/2013, now $800... WTF if this isn't a bubble I don't know what is... However, it can go up for another 2-3 years before it crash tho just like tech bubble & housing bubble...

Nakowa, biggest btc gambler has 12,000 btc invested in just-dice.com, now valued at $9.6M...

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD
 
Who is going to cash out his gain this year?
 
BMBiology said:
Anybody thinks 2014 will be a strong growth year? a lot of optimism out there
Click to expand...

What we're seeing is excess liquidity sloshing about the globe in search of yield. This could go on for a few more years. So the Dow could triple from here even if the real economy is crappy. However in the end the market will realize the meager yield that can be squeezed is not real, setting the stage for deflation and hyperinflation. HI is not lots of inflation, it occurs during deflation as wealth pancakes downward level after level of the Exeter inverse pyramid.

exters-pyramid.png
 
"John Exter (September 17, 1910 – February 28, 2006) was an American economist, member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System, and founder of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He is also known for creating Exter's Pyramid...

Exter was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Committee for Monetary Research & Education, the Mont Pelerin Society, and the Pilgrims of the United States."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Exter

I think our edjumacators left this guy out of our economic texts for a reason.
 
Bitcoin, not gold, has the midas touch. So far, I have 1.2 btc, bought at $600/coin, it's now worth $1k/coin in 7 days >_> oh I also won 0.4 btc ($400) from just-dice.com. Cash out and take $1k profit total or keep playing and go bust? Maybe, it will be a major alternative currency... $600 speculation/investment is not going to affect my QoL even if I lose it all. It's a gamble worth taking, so I guess I am gonna go big or go home.
 
Momus said:
Bitcoin, not gold, has the midas touch. So far, I have 1.2 btc, bought at $600/coin, it's now worth $1k/coin in 7 days >_> oh I also won 0.4 btc ($400) from just-dice.com. Cash out and take $1k profit total or keep playing and go bust? Maybe, it will be a major alternative currency... $600 speculation/investment is not going to affect my QoL even if I lose it all. It's a gamble worth taking, so I guess I am gonna go big or go home.
Click to expand...

Bitcoin's value isn't as an alternative currency. Its value is as a mechanism to trade anonymously and outside of the established system. Basically, drugs...violence for hire...guns...all cn be bought on the darknet with bitcoin. Always bet on vice.
 
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msweph said:
Do any of you have any thoughts on a whole life insurance policy? This was recently recommend to me.
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http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/11/06/the-gots-checklist/

I would add life insurance to the list. If 30Y Treasuries are yielding less than 4% where do you think insurance companies are playing if actuarially they have to make 8% or more? The derivative markets with leverage. You want to take on that counterparty risk in a ZIRP soon to be a NIRP environment?
 
grumps said:
What we're seeing is excess liquidity sloshing about the globe in search of yield. This could go on for a few more years. So the Dow could triple from here even if the real economy is crappy. However in the end the market will realize the meager yield that can be squeezed is not real, setting the stage for deflation and hyperinflation. HI is not lots of inflation, it occurs during deflation as wealth pancakes downward level after level of the Exeter inverse pyramid.

exters-pyramid.png
Click to expand...

Really if you have deflation, you cannot have hyperinflation. Deflation is by definition negative inflation....
 
Old Timer said:
Really if you have deflation, you cannot have hyperinflation. Deflation is by definition negative inflation....
Click to expand...


HI is not lots of inflation. It occurs during depressed economic activity. When the bond market figures out it won't get paid in real terms then credit collapses until everything is a MZM plasma. I love it when the Deflationsists and Hyperinflationists argue with each other. They are both right. HI is a sequelae of deflation. Many make the mistake that HI is on the inflation side of the spectrum. No, it's nestled in the deflation side.
 
Momus said:
1 BTC = $1100
My gambling profit: 2.1 BTC = happy Momus :-D
More businesses have accepted bitcoins; you can't say that for gold.

rKUHT7a.png
Click to expand...


I'd be cautious, though. Keep in mind that the utility bitcoin has is fleeting. Get funds, buy bitcoin, make transaction. Sell whatever, get bitcoins, sell to real money. That's what happens 99% of the time. The only people holding them are speculators. Those using them as CURRENCY...don't hold them at all. I would cash out ASAP if its me. Before everyone realizes its a ridiculous bubble, too.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
I'd be cautious, though. Keep in mind that the utility bitcoin has is fleeting. Get funds, buy bitcoin, make transaction. Sell whatever, get bitcoins, sell to real money. That's what happens 99% of the time. The only people holding them are speculators. Those using them as CURRENCY...don't hold them at all. I would cash out ASAP if its me. Before everyone realizes its a ridiculous bubble, too.
Click to expand...

Not a bad profit from gambling. I was up +5 btc, then busted to +0.01, I was sooo butthurt. and now up again +5.5 btc (1 month of my paycheck)... I am gonna turn these into greenbacks and run with principal + some profit, and then play some more.

O7nkIB6.png
 
I gotta get into this Bitcoin thing. People were talking about it on this underground forum I'm a part of like 5 year ago and I shunned them like they were ridiculous. I think there was a story about how some guy bought bitcoins for $27 a few years back and forgot that he had them and now when he remembered and checked it turns out its worth almost a million.
 
200 k+ jobs in November.

Anybody betting 2014 will be a big year?
 
grumps said:
HI is not lots of inflation. It occurs during depressed economic activity. When the bond market figures out it won't get paid in real terms then credit collapses until everything is a MZM plasma. I love it when the Deflationsists and Hyperinflationists argue with each other. They are both right. HI is a sequelae of deflation. Many make the mistake that HI is on the inflation side of the spectrum. No, it's nestled in the deflation side.
Click to expand...

Well your statement is misleading at best.

Yes HI follows and is a result of out of control deflation in many circumstances... but HI is clearly INFLATION ! How can it be a type of deflation?
 
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