The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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A little quiet here. Don't look but Deutsche Bank is making new lows again. This problem simply won't go away. It's common knowledge among the professionals that DB has been a derivative dumping ground for decades. Looks like there's been a reactor breach and something's burning it's way to the earth's core. Stone Burner! Oh, what's an Etrade baby to do?

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Any buy suggestions? I made some sales and have some free cash.

I haven't bought anything all summer, this isn't a gold thread but all I've been doing is selling puts on gld and gdx.

I find it too risky to put EXTRA money in the market right now. Definitely not worth going after a dividend.
 
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I've been doing a little gold but it keeps going up and I'm scared I may buy in too high at some point so I stopped

I'll be looking to add to my vbltx if the jobs report comes out bad again. Probably the best place to be right now seeing as I can't see rates going up this year.
 
That is vanguards long term bond index fund.

You realize that by putting money in now you'll be in a blow-off top only supported by CBs at the end of the day?

I suggest reading some Ben Hunt.
http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/when-narratives-go-bad/

"But here’s the even larger problem lurking in the not-so distant future, and it’s found in the behavioral WHY of return-seeking bond buyers versus income-seeking bond buyers. These are two entirely different investor populations from a behavioral perspective, with different languages and different investment genotypes. When I hear an investor or financial advisor ask, “Why in the world would I buy a Swiss bond with a -0.5% interest rate?” I know that I’m talking to an income-seeking bond buyer. The return-seeking bond buyer, on the other hand, says “Hey, if you’re right about the world, those Swiss bonds currently yielding -0.5% are going to -1.0%, which means that the price is going up. Where can I buy one of those?”

The only rational owner of a negative rate bond is a pure return seeker; there are zero income seekers holding negative rate bonds. Why is this a problem? Because income seekers will continue to own bonds even if the price goes down (for a while, anyway; at the very least, they are sticky owners). Return seekers, on the other hand, are not sticky owners at all. They will only own a bond if they think that the price is going up – meaning in this case that yields will continue to become even more negative, i.e., that there’s a greater fool (probably in the form of a Central Bank) willing to pay higher and higher prices for these income-destroying bonds – and they will sell in a heartbeat if they think this dynamic is changing."
 
That is vanguards long term bond index fund.

And with that jobs report, it now puts the thought of a rate hike in sept back on the table (even though it won't happen) so wont be adding there now.

We really need to close here and not sell off. We're within 1% from the all time high.
 
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Anybody else feel like it is 2007 all over again?!


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Amazing how it all perfectly plays out. And people refuse to accept that the powers that be plan, influence, and execute this stuff. The FED has completely strayed from its mandate, which entails not worrying about the equity markets every second. They have toyed with us regarding rate hikes for almost 3 years, and keep having an excuse every single time. Do people not realize that there are some very powerful vested interests in keeping interest rates low? (Read: Big Banks)
Again and people don't question it. The fed refused to raise rates in May because only 38k jobs were added. Now almost 300k were added in june. In April, 160k. How can people not see how bogus the May report was, conveniently around the time a rate hike was very imminent? and then all of a sudden we now have an almost 10 fold increase in jobs within a month?! o_O Oh and it just so happens that around the same time restrictions on share buybacks and dividend raises for banks were lifted.
How much u wanna bet this rally is fueled by the financial sector? Common folk need to realize the banks are sleeping with the fed and have literally taken over what IS the American economy. Maybe for the better, maybe for the worse. But for me it doesn't feel right when stocks, bonds and gold are all rallying at the same time, while the FED destroys the yield curve. I wonder what the excuse is gonna be now at all time highs, but u bet they are working on it...something is in the works. Some number is getting fudged, either GDP, jobs, consumer price index, is gonna miraculously SUCK by September and then the fed will be like oh ****....we can't raise rates now....lol.
I stick to my market neutral strategies, and that's where I'm gonna be for the foreseeable future. But in the grand scheme of things, this will end badly for the average American, and they will have to pick up the pieces and start over. I guess it's no big deal. They've done it before and will have to wait another decade, maybe two to catch up again. Time is money.
 
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When you start to think that the department of labor is cooking the books to support your theories and thoughts...it might be time to reevaluate. A recession will come eventually. It always does. And I'm sure you people will claim you knew it was coming all along.
 
I've been neutral on the market for a year now but it's always been based on numbers. You realize this will be I believe the 5th earnings season with lower sales and revenue?

I also find it interesting that after that jobs report, after gold fell it ended up higher and treasury yields went up but ended lower again. A huge bubble is definitely forming. Unfortunately I see more QE coming and rates will go back to zero and possibly negative before the next crash.
 
When you start to think that the department of labor is cooking the books to support your theories and thoughts...it might be time to reevaluate. A recession will come eventually. It always does. And I'm sure you people will claim you knew it was coming all along.

So what are you saying? They don't? I am not predicting a recession or crash if anything. It might seem like it but that's only a consequence of what I'm pointing out. That's why I have acknowledged it's the new paradigm, and maybe for the better or worse. I am merely pointing out that we as citizens need to use our heads and hold these people accountable who are hijacking our economy for the benefit of the rich and creating no economic value for the average citizen.
Why would you not think the BLS is manipulating numbers? If the numbers were so accurate and a reflection of true economic conditions, then why do they almost always have to be revised? By the way, the 38k May jobs report was revised down to 11k! That's a massive difference. Anything subject to revisions as such is subject to foul play. Common let's not be naïve here. We all know people in high places make things happen, and that's for real.
 
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Why would you not think the BLS is manipulating numbers? If the numbers were so accurate and a reflection of true economic conditions, then why do they almost always have to be revised? By the way, the 38k May jobs report was revised down to 11k! That's a massive difference. Anything subject to revisions as such is subject to foul play. Common let's not be naïve here. We all know people in high places make things happen, and that's for real.

There are multiple reasons to believe the numbers. First off, Verizon workers went on strike, then went back to work. That's about 40,000 off of the May report and 40,000 on the June report. That alone makes the numbers much more normalized. Second off, a private firm called ADP does their own private jobs report and the overall trend is more or less relatively close to the official Department of Labor numbers. Third off, there are numerous employees from every state and every part of the political spectrum involved in preparing these things. No, Obama doesn't tell them to cook the books. It's a very silly opinion to hold.
 
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Conspiracy theory people are hilarious.
 
So what are you saying? They don't? I am not predicting a recession or crash if anything. It might seem like it but that's only a consequence of what I'm pointing out. That's why I have acknowledged it's the new paradigm, and maybe for the better or worse. I am merely pointing out that we as citizens need to use our heads and hold these people accountable who are hijacking our economy for the benefit of the rich and creating no economic value for the average citizen.
Why would you not think the BLS is manipulating numbers? If the numbers were so accurate and a reflection of true economic conditions, then why do they almost always have to be revised? By the way, the 38k May jobs report was revised down to 11k! That's a massive difference. Anything subject to revisions as such is subject to foul play. Common let's not be naïve here. We all know people in high places make things happen, and that's for real.

Think about it. If they are manipulating the numbers, you would think they would do a better job at it.

Just say 200 k jobs +/- 10% a month until the election is over. How hard is that?


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Anyone have any info if the Walgreens rite aid merger will be approved?
 
Go Chipotle!


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Anyone have any info if the Walgreens rite aid merger will be approved?
Everything I've read has been positive about approval happening, district manager seem to be fairly certain its a done deal although they are relatively low on the corporate totem pole they have weekly conference calls with divisional leaders that are convinced as well. Willingness to divest 1000 stores despite projections closer to 500 working in that favor. Stock under 7$ for an approved 9$ buyout is looking tempting.

RA does seem to be in full sell mode however, if it's not Wags now I'm sure they will look for another partner (express scripts?) or another entity. If Wags falls through the stock will probably drop to under 5$ until another buyout partner is announced.
 
Look at msft go, after killing it with them I'm calling the bottom in chipotle and bought it going into earnings. If I'm wrong I'll lose my msft beat so no big deal.
 
Look at msft go, after killing it with them I'm calling the bottom in chipotle and bought it going into earnings. If I'm wrong I'll lose my msft beat so no big deal.

Guts telling me sbux is actually the better buy.
 
Sold Chipotle at $732 last week. Earning report was a disappointment. It is now $653. Didn't wait 1 year for the tax benefit.

I am back! Just got chipotle stocks at $418 a share.

Sold Chipotle at $732. Repurchased it at $418.

The earning report is out. If it goes up, expect the ride to continue for the next few weeks.


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Sold Chipotle at $732. Repurchased it at $418.

The earning report is out. If it goes up, expect the ride to continue for the next few weeks.


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Chipotle is up 2.5% and is now at 428.


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Look at it go, kind of upset I ended up splitting between it and sbux.

Go Chipotle! It has been a wild ride. I made the right call and waited for the earning report.

I was planning to get in and out after 5% gain but I think it has more room to grow.


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The chipotle short sellers are getting burned so they will rush in and buy the stock.


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Oh, look at the market close to 7% YTD. Where are all the doom sayers Brexit, cash 30-50% on the sidelines BS, earning Armageddon crap? Suddenly, a lot of empty chirp. Keep guessing when the next recession will hit, you WILL get lucky one day, and boast you can predict this. I will just chuckle a little.

I said it again and again, time in the market > timing. Stocks has a probability of going up 60% in any given year. You are playing against the odds. The dip you are trying to catch at 5% and miss the run up is rarely worth the hassle and the effort.
 
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Oh, look at the market close to 7% YTD. Where are all the doom sayers Brexit, cash 30-50% on the sidelines BS, earning Armageddon crap? Suddenly, a lot of empty chirp. Keep guessing when the next recession will hit, you WILL get lucky one day, and boast you can predict this. I will just chuckle a little.

I said it again and again, time in the market > timing. Stocks has a probability of going up 60% in any given year. You are playing against the odds. The dip you are trying to catch at 5% and miss the run up is rarely worth the hassle and the effort.

I agree. Brexit is just noise that hasn't materialized. Hell, brexit hasn't actually happened yet and the market has already recovered from the news. Most of this international news is stuff that will never have a material effect on the US. I don't follow the markets closely but numbers like P/E and GDP growth mean a lot more to me than the current news headline.
 
I agree. Brexit is just noise that hasn't materialized. Hell, brexit hasn't actually happened yet and the market has already recovered from the news. Most of this international news is stuff that will never have a material effect on the US. I don't follow the markets closely but numbers like P/E and GDP growth mean a lot more to me than the current news headline.

Brexit will have an affect but central banks around the world have signaled that they will add more stimulus. That is why the stock market has gone up. It has not gone up because of fundamentals.

Ask yourself this - if it is this simple and there is no consequence then why not keep on adding more stimulus and keeping interest rate at near zero?

Sure, I have made a lot of money. Just look at the right calls I have made in this thread. But even I know this train will come to a screeching halt. Everything goes back to the fundamentals....just remember that and you will make a lot of money.


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Brexit will have an affect but central banks around the world have signaled that they will add more stimulus. That is why the stock market has gone up. It has not gone up because of fundamentals.

Ask yourself this - if it is this simple and there is no consequence then why not keep on adding more stimulus and keeping interest rate at near zero?

Sure, I have made a lot of money. Just look at the right calls I have made in this thread. But even I know this train will come to a screeching halt. Everything goes back to the fundamentals....just remember that and you will make a lot of money.


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What do you mean everything goes back to fundamentals? Can you elaborate?

I am hesitate on the market as a whole now, worry there maybe a recession coming soon within a couple years.
 
What do you mean everything goes back to fundamentals? Can you elaborate?

I am hesitate on the market as a whole now, worry there maybe a recession coming soon within a couple years.

This means at the end of the day it is about revenue and profit. Everything else is just noise.


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Not saying I'm actually getting in all these but I'm looking at gild (they are going to buy someone at some point they have 21 billion in cash in their balance sheet, I am worried about decreasing sales in hep c though and investors may be worried about future growth if nothing is announced and they miss)

aapl (no one is talking about apple could mean an easy beat, new phone is coming out easy comps are coming too),

bwld (deflation costs for chicken want to hear about their sales initiatives, how is soccer doing, expect a huge move either direction. Last quarter absolutely sucked)

I always buy fb googl and amzn about 2 weeks into reports since they always run up then sell often before, if you hold you are looking at 10% swings. My gut is telling me fb misses with the huge expectations. I may hold on to googl. Love seeing these miss since they always rebound.
 
Agreed!

Any calls for this earnings week ??

You should think about buying Chipotle, even after the 5% rally. The earning report wasn't even good but it showed some sign of a recovery.

Short sellers will have to buy the stock or they will end up losing more money. This will cause the price to go up further.


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Brexit will have an affect but central banks around the world have signaled that they will add more stimulus. That is why the stock market has gone up. It has not gone up because of fundamentals.

Ask yourself this - if it is this simple and there is no consequence then why not keep on adding more stimulus and keeping interest rate at near zero?

Sure, I have made a lot of money. Just look at the right calls I have made in this thread. But even I know this train will come to a screeching halt. Everything goes back to the fundamentals....just remember that and you will make a lot of money.


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In other words the stock market went down because of noise and has recovered because of noise. None of this noise is yet to materialize and the fundamentals are the same.

I personally hope they raise the interest rates. The fundamentals say to raise the rates, the noise (Brexit) says to keep them the same ("international instability"). I guess the fed is in the business of speculation. They way I see it the fed is stealing from the future by keeping the rates low.
 
Not saying I'm actually getting in all these but I'm looking at gild (they are going to buy someone at some point they have 21 billion in cash in their balance sheet, I am worried about decreasing sales in hep c though and investors may be worried about future growth if nothing is announced and they miss)

aapl (no one is talking about apple could mean an easy beat, new phone is coming out easy comps are coming too),

bwld (deflation costs for chicken want to hear about their sales initiatives, how is soccer doing, expect a huge move either direction. Last quarter absolutely sucked)

I always buy fb googl and amzn about 2 weeks into reports since they always run up then sell often before, if you hold you are looking at 10% swings. My gut is telling me fb misses with the huge expectations. I may hold on to googl. Love seeing these miss since they always rebound.

Man when you're hot you have to keep buying!!! I moved gild to mcd (sorry they report before the market opens) and I just have to buy bwld even if they fall 10%.

I don't know if I can buy apple, I just don't see any announcements coming.
 
This means at the end of the day it is about revenue and profit. Everything else is just noise.


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80% of the trades on the NYSE are HFT. 90% are on the Nasdaq. Fundamentals driving the market , puleeaze, that bus left 15-20 years ago. Much of the market action is driven by algos keying off certain inputs such as the Vix and the USDJPY currency pair. If the yen weakens the machines are risk on courtesy of the yen carry trade, something they will never talk about on CNBC. Same goes for the Vix. All the ESF has to do is smash the Vix and the machines will do the heavy lifting to levitate risk assets.

Remember last Aug 24th. All of a sudden the machines withdrew bids as the yen got strong and before you know it, the Dow is down 1100 points.
 
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Japan-eyes-cash-stimulus-for-low-earners

More details.

"Ruling bloc member Komeito's proposal to issue vouchers meant to promote consumer spending was not included in the government-proposed outline.

The government favors distributing 10,000 yen in cash to low earners instead, but Komeito is holding out for 15,000 yen.

The roughly 22 million people who pay no residency tax because of insufficient income would be expected to qualify for the cash. Single individuals earning less than 1 million yen a year fall into this bracket."

That's only a crummy 150 bucks. Maybe this is why the markets nosedived inexplicably this morning. This isn't helicopterey enough. Expect these numbers to grow as gossip trickles out.

Bear in mind, this will be global in scope. Everybody is going to do it.
 
Apple is going to 120
 
Why? Working but looked like the results aren't great

Just read the earnings report.

Anyways it is impossible to say how high apple could go since it is so big, you always here about the law of large numbers and its p/e ratio is well below market average. If Apple was at market average it would be at 200.
 
Not saying I'm actually getting in all these but I'm looking at gild (they are going to buy someone at some point they have 21 billion in cash in their balance sheet, I am worried about decreasing sales in hep c though and investors may be worried about future growth if nothing is announced and they miss)

aapl (no one is talking about apple could mean an easy beat, new phone is coming out easy comps are coming too),

bwld (deflation costs for chicken want to hear about their sales initiatives, how is soccer doing, expect a huge move either direction. Last quarter absolutely sucked)

I always buy fb googl and amzn about 2 weeks into reports since they always run up then sell often before, if you hold you are looking at 10% swings. My gut is telling me fb misses with the huge expectations. I may hold on to googl. Love seeing these miss since they always rebound.

Well mcd took away my gild profit but bwld just soared and unless something odd happens it looks like I might be staying in googl tomorrow.
 
Since Jan 19th, 2016

VWUSX Vanguard US growth Fund +12%
GLD 23%
SLV 46%
HUI 150%
JNUG 900%

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So the stock market is at an all time high while the 10 year treasury yield is near the bottom. Doesn't make sense.


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Corporate bond defaults are at their highest rate since 2009. I'm not sure if this is limited to the oil industry.
 
Corporate bond defaults are at their highest rate since 2009. I'm not sure if this is limited to the oil industry.

Don't you worry your pretty little head. The central banks are going to roll almost all this debt over by hook or crook. If not the system collapses this time.

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Don't you worry your pretty little head. The central banks are going to roll almost all this debt over by hook or crook. If not the system collapses this time.

You mean...helicopters will be dropping money from the sky? And if we want to borrow more money, they'll pay us to do it?!
 
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