The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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I'm not sure how feasible this would be, but I am looking for a program that monitors the rate of change of stocks.
For example, a program that lists intraday stocks that are currently up 25% from their opening value.

If anyone knows of something similar I would appreciate it.
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curious to hear what some of your retirement savings goals are (i.e. what amount of savings do you hope to have when you retire). I am 32 and have as a very loose goal to have 2 million (wife and i combined) to retire at age 60. Using the 4% rule, that is 80k/year plus any SS if there is any left (not counting on it but there will most likely be at least some fraction of what we are supposed to get). No way to predict inflation for the next 30 years obviously, just throwing rough numbers out there. I figure expenses will be comparatively lower at that time because A)no more mortgage and B)no more need to max out 401k/roth
 
PharmDminus said:
curious to hear what some of your retirement savings goals are (i.e. what amount of savings do you hope to have when you retire). I am 32 and have as a very loose goal to have 2 million (wife and i combined) to retire at age 60. Using the 4% rule, that is 80k/year plus any SS if there is any left (not counting on it but there will most likely be at least some fraction of what we are supposed to get). No way to predict inflation for the next 30 years obviously, just throwing rough numbers out there. I figure expenses will be comparatively lower at that time because A)no more mortgage and B)no more need to max out 401k/roth
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and when i say 80k/year, i am predicting that will be the equivalent of less than half that in todays dollars when adjusted for inflation. i would rather retire early and live frugally than work longer and have a higher income stream
 
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Lexington2012 said:
GEO stock took a hit today. I picked up about 50 shares. I think it will rebound pretty quickly, as the DOJ announcement affects federal prisons but not state-run ones.
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Hmm announcement made and conference call today, already halted. Could be a nice pop.
 
PharmDminus said:
curious to hear what some of your retirement savings goals are (i.e. what amount of savings do you hope to have when you retire). I am 32 and have as a very loose goal to have 2 million (wife and i combined) to retire at age 60. Using the 4% rule, that is 80k/year plus any SS if there is any left (not counting on it but there will most likely be at least some fraction of what we are supposed to get). No way to predict inflation for the next 30 years obviously, just throwing rough numbers out there. I figure expenses will be comparatively lower at that time because A)no more mortgage and B)no more need to max out 401k/roth
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I want to retire at 57 and travel the world my first few years out. Currently both my wife and I max out our TSP with 5% matches so putting 46k+ a year in there. Plus hopefully we get the full pension of 30ish % of salary when retire. With conservative returns of 5-6% we should have 4 million or so in 401k at retirement
hopefully we have several hundred k saved up outside of 401k who knows what will happen in this world the next 30 years though.
 
Lexington2012 said:
GEO stock took a hit today. I picked up about 50 shares. I think it will rebound pretty quickly, as the DOJ announcement affects federal prisons but not state-run ones.
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Out, appreciate the info. Conference call said no change in guidance could go back up to 30.
 
The market is stale, but there are still a lot of good stock trades out there. Just made a major cash out on ACIA last week. IPO stocks are very hot right now. I'm looking for honey badger stocks, ones that don't give a damn about how the market it is doing. EW just had approval on the first TAVR device this past week and I've done well on this stock in the past year.
 
msweph said:
Do we think the fed will raise rates Friday?
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It's a symposium, not a FOMC meeting at Jackson's Hole. What's more important is the upcoming G20 events.

The Fed needs to raise rates to save the holders dependent on fixed income, but there's a problem. The world can't service the debt already outstanding and after 8 years of ZIRP, nearly everything has rolled over at these rates. There has been no deleveraging since the GFC in 2008. all they did was buy time and made the problem worse. It's amazing how so many mainstream analysts are now sounding like the fringe element several years ago.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...xplanation-how-central-banks-got-it-all-wrong

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...uarie-warns-private-sector-will-never-recover
 
msweph said:
NUGT is falling. Hoping to buy in and make some $$
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Don't touch these triple levered ETFs. Even though I'm a superbull on the sector, I consider these instruments to be nitroglycerin. There are designed to move triple whatever the daily move is in the miners. There are not buy and hold securities. There is a big decay factor in these puppies. They will not perform as many expect in a bull market. All it takes is a few bad days to really wipe a lot of gains.

You got to keep in mind when investing in this sector you going against THE MAN. You are opting to become a financial vigilante. The central bankers will not go down w/o a fight. The volatility will be legion. Fortunes will be made but mostly lost because of leverage. I would not be surprised to see my net worth go up and down by 7 figures over the course of a week, perhaps a day, when thing really gets going. There is no need to gamble. No margin. Take a position, don't whine, and just hold on until the system is healed. On the other side of this crisis you will be sitting pretty. No screwing around here, we're talking about FU money if you are positioned right.

No more being a little biatch for Pessina nor a pissboy for Merlo.
 
msweph said:
Do we think the fed will raise rates Friday?
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Really the only thing you need to hear is if yellen gets hawkish at all. If there is any sign of her changing her stance while sept to me has no chance, dec rate hike still might occur. I'm actually not comfortable with my gdx trade for the rest of the year, it has fallen 10% so it could shoot right back up if she doesn't change but it doesn't seem worth it until we actually get another hike.
 
Any thoughts on when to buy Mylan stock, at what price? It has been taking a dip, I assume from this epi-pen fiasco.
 
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Oh look, Yellen now says the case for raising rates has strengthened lol. So they raised rates at 2.5% GDP growth at the end of last year, punted the thing all year with shady jobs numbers that kept getting revised down, and then now we are at less than 1% growth and all of a sudden the case has "strengthened"? So much for being "data dependent" eh. Wait for the excuse when it comes time to actually raise it. Keep stringing everyone along, while pooping on the economy. Don't even know why anyone gives the fed credibility. It's time they get called out to just shut the hell up and not say anything anymore. lol
This is all a psychological game, trying hard to push every one and their mama's savings into the hyperinflated markets. But they know they have lost control and nothing else is working. The only thing that will work is to find a way for money to go directly to main street, average folks....not banks. Find a way to increase disposable incomes, then both spending and savings go up, then the economy throttles. Basic economics 101. It's actually mind boggling that with all the so called smart economists we have running things, they have complicated crap so much, and are missing the point as to how simplistic the solution to most complex problems are. Go back to the basics. Smh
What a mess.
 
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BidAsk said:
Oh look, Yellen now says the case for raising rates has strengthened lol. So they raised rates at 2.5% GDP growth at the end of last year, punted the thing all year with shady jobs numbers that kept getting revised down, and then now we are at less than 1% growth and all of a sudden the case has "strengthened"? So much for being "data dependent" eh. Wait for the excuse when it comes time to actually raise it. Keep stringing everyone along, while pooping on the economy. Don't even know why anyone gives the fed credibility. It's time they get called out to just shut the hell up and not say anything anymore. lol
This is all a psychological game, trying hard to push every one and their mama's savings into the hyperinflated markets. But they know they have lost control and nothing else is working. The only thing that will work is to find a way for money to go directly to main street, average folks....not banks. Find a way to increase disposable incomes, then both spending and savings go up, then the economy throttles. Basic economics 101. It's actually mind boggling that with all the so called smart economists we have running things, they have complicated crap so much, and are missing the point as to how simplistic the solution to most complex problems are. Go back to the basics. Smh
What a mess.
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Did you love the shaping of the narrative that took place last Friday? All the major newsfeeds were prepositioned headlines howling to the moon of the case for rate hikes, even ZH fell for it. But all you had to do was actually read the speech to find out the Fed is trapped. Negative rates and massive QE are on the table. This speech was as important as Ben's 2002 Making Sure Deflation Doesn't Happen Here. And as the weekend progressed more and more articles pointed out that there will be no normalization. You're right this is a psychological game and they have lost control. Will helicopter money directly to main street work? I don't know about that. People can take that money and do 3 things: spend it, stuff in the mattress or bank, or pay off debt. Two of the 3 are deflationary. I suspect they would have to up the ante and frequency of direct cash injections to the people, but then another factor comes into play. At what point do businesses stop taking the funny money? Maybe only those with a heavy debt burden.

Deflation is going to win and the only thing to prevent "monetary aggregate inversion" will be central banks buying up all the sovereign, municipal, anointed corporate debt, student debt, and subprime auto debt. Then with all the toxic garbage within the central bank sarcophagi,
soloeast-travel-chernobyl.jpg

the last measure will be taken. As all efforts to inflate beforehand will have failed.
Then the GREAT DEBT FOR EQUITY SWAP IN THE NEW DEAL.

massive-star-supernova-gamma-ray-burst.jpg
 
Target down. Costco down. Walmart up. The economy is shifting to a slower gear?


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Great month in the stock market for me! I've been crushing the biotech stocks. I have a whole watch-list of biotechs that I follow and wait on news. Once new drug approvals or successful trials are announced I try to get in on the action as early as possible. I woke up at 4am this week to trade a successful drug trial announcement for RIGL and made 42% in one day!

These announcements can be amazing for the bottom-line, just have to take profits, not hold too long, and sell quickly if purchase price is breached by more than 3-5%.

What's awesome is that I only need a few of these big winners a year to have a massively profitable account. Most of my account is idle with very little risk and I usually never put more than 10-15% into these biotech plays.
 
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MatCauthon said:
Great month in the stock market for me! I've been crushing the biotech stocks. I have a whole watch-list of biotechs that I follow and wait on news. Once new drug approvals or successful trials are announced I try to get in on the action as early as possible. I woke up at 4am this week to trade a successful drug trial announcement for RIGL and made 42% in one day!

These announcements can be amazing for the bottom-line, just have to take profits, not hold too long, and sell quickly if purchase price is breached by more than 3-5%.

What's awesome is that I only need a few of these big winners a year to have a massively profitable account. Most of my account is idle with very little risk and I usually never put more than 10-15% into these biotech plays.
Click to expand...

I do not recommend this to newer investors, many biotechs will actually sell on the news or after opening will quickly drop. We are talking about huge moves of over 30%. You are essentially gambling at this point.

Always remember if it was that easy everyone would do it.
 
BMBiology said:
You should think about buying Chipotle, even after the 5% rally. The earning report wasn't even good but it showed some sign of a recovery.

Short sellers will have to buy the stock or they will end up losing more money. This will cause the price to go up further.


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Go Chipotle!

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square takes 9.9 pct stake in Chipotle, filing says: http://www.cnbc.com/id/103909437


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Small and midcaps getting murdered. Don't look at the Dow.

XLF leading to the downside, not a good sign.

This thing is so heavy. It wants to drop. No matter if central banks are buying stocks, if the markets want to exhale then they will exhale.
 
Has anybody seen Ray Dalio in the same room with Carol is Alpha?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...h-you-can-squeeze-out-debt-cycle-we-are-there

"What I am contending is that there are limits to spending growth financed by a combination of debt and money. When these limits are reached, it marks the end of the upward phase of the long-term debt cycle. In 1935, this scenario was dubbed “pushing on a string”. This scenario reflects the reduced ability of the world’s reserve currency central banks to be effective at easing when both interest can’t be lowered and risk premia are too low to have quantitative easing be effective."


Has anybody seen Paul Singer in the same room with Carol is Alpha?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ns-it-very-dangerous-time-stocks-prefers-gold
  • *ELLIOTT'S SINGER SAYS IN MIDDLE OF 40-YEAR LEVERAGE EXPERIMENT
  • *ELLIOTT’S SINGER SAYS VERY DANGEROUS TIME IN GLOBAL MARKETS
  • *ELLIOTT'S SINGER SAYS MID-2009 WAS TIME FOR PIVOT POST-CRASH
  • *ELLIOTT’S SINGER SAYS G-7 BONDS ARE NOT ‘SAFE HAVENS’
  • *ELLIOTT’S SINGER SAYS SELL LONG-TERM BONDS
 
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Very interesting video. Those investing in Disney and other entertainment stocks should see this.


Social engineering thru pop culture. It's real.
 
To get up to speed on DB, here's a good primer in plain English.


What's Next For Central Planners And Their Kale Smoothie Economy?


Trying to engineer a bottom from a top?


The webbot immediacy data can be uncanny sometimes. Will there be a debate tonite? Will Hillary make it thru the whole thing?
 
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This thread might as well be closed
 
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https://yragharris.com/2016/09/26/anotherboner/

"The systemic importance of Deutsche Banks would render the Lehman debacle a mere accounting error. Deutsche is PROBABLY the most leveraged institution in the world and if it failed the reverberations would rock Tokyo, China, London and Wall Street. Every financial actor has exposure to Deutsche Bank rendering Merkel’s political posturing an act of colossal stupidity, especially as the global economic system is in a highly fragile state. ECB President Draghi must have sighed in disbelief as his “guardian angel” jeopardized the entire ECB effort at creating the backdrop of “whatever it takes.” Timemagazine named Chancellor Merkel its person of the year in 2015 but I will nominate her as the FOOL of the decade for failing to understand the global financial system. I GUARANTEE THAT DEUTSCHE WILL BE BAILED OUT BY THE GERMAN POLITICAL SYSTEM."

Central banks have wielded the white magic once too many and broken the natural order. They have awoken the WORM AT THE WORLD'S END. That is what we see at Deutsche Bank, the dying of the Eurodollar standard. Nothing will stop this. Not the brave Haruchai, not the Forestals, not the InSequent, not the Elohim. Not even the mighty BMB with his squadrons of burrito-delivering drones, nor Momus the Faithful with his Vanguard Staff adorned with ancient Boglelian runes. The WORM AT THE WORLD'S END will devour all things financial paving the way for a new financial cosmos to be born.

the_one_tree_by_phillipkeidge-d99jl3z.jpg


 
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msweph said:
Still holding your RAD shares?
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Yeah, its amazing how its almost been a year since it was first announced.

I've bought and sold some on dips. I'll probably buy some more around 7 to 7.3.
 
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