The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

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My personal rate of return in my roth IRA is 6.2% so I feel fine
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WVUPharm2007 said:
So after months of cobbling together clearance, black friday, and other miscellaneous deals, I have enough components for my new gaming rig. Cost me about $705. PCPartPicker price over $1000.

So I'm excited about that.
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I thought you had 1070 long time ago.

I bought a 1060 Dell laptop for $750 in Nov 2017 BF deal. It's decent.
 
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Momus said:
I thought you had 1070 long time ago.

I bought a 1060 Dell laptop for $750 in Nov 2017 BF deal. It's decent.
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Yup. That's the only carryover. I bought it in 2017 off of jet.com when they were running that 30% off your first purchase promotion that stacked with their sales. I was using an old Intel 2600k and really slow RAM... From 2012. It was starting to bottleneck newer AAA games. It was time for an overhaul.
 
WVUPharm2007 said:
Yup. That's the only carryover. I bought it in 2017 off of jet.com when they were running that 30% off your first purchase promotion that stacked with their sales. I was using an old Intel 2600k and really slow RAM... From 2012. It was starting to bottleneck newer AAA games. It was time for an overhaul.
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Most of my current build was put together in 2013. I've got an old processor, old RAM, old motherboard. GPU from 2015 and a tiny SSD from around then too. I really want to build a new PC from scratch, but somehow this thing is still able to play new games at acceptable framerates. Probably because I still have my 1080p monitor from 2011.

I'm in a tiny apartment at the moment, but when I get more space it'll be time to start fresh. There are so many new things out there.. like these insane ultra widescreen monitors. I can't wait.
 
Windows 10 with an SSD is pleasingly fast. From post to mouse cursor is 13 seconds for me. Love it. The old machine with it's mechanical snail running the show would take several agonizing minutes.
 
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WVUPharm2007 said:
Anything cool on Vive (loving Beat Saber right now) and whatever I can pirate for free off of Fit Girl.
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I've been downloading the most expensive turbo tax home and business for so long >_>; Kickass, torrentz, tpb are my go to sites for any software, music or movies.
 
Debt, debt, debt:

ImageUploadedBySDN1550009899.239678.jpg
 
BMBiology said:
Debt, debt, debt:

View attachment 250491
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Cleveland Fed Mester says QT will be ending in upcoming meetings.

So all we could do is get to 2.5% and allow a crummy 500B roll off before the wheels came off? But they said the economy was strong.

What's next? Zero percent? Below zero?

Commercial banks stuffed to the gills with Treasuries in hold to maturity accounts since politically Fed can take balance sheet to 20T?

HTM accounting extended to ETFs?

Negative income tax?
 
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I listen to Dave Ramsey several nights a week on my work week. He is hilarious in many different ways, but you need to understand that he's an entertainer and not a serious financial expert. It cracks me up watching him tear into people for being financially stupid. And he has that ignorant "baby boomer wisdom" thing going on, which is amusing. By which I mean he's very skilled at talking out of his ass while sounding like he knows what he's talking about. Like any time a retail pharmacist calls his show in massive amounts of debt, his recommendation is always the same thing. "You need to go down to the local ER and get some overtime." As if any rando CVS pharmacist can waltz into an ED and get some part time hours. If he knows that little about us, imagine how much he's talking out of his ass on a regular basis.

Also watching him try to convince smart people that his methods are better than simple math is fun. (i.e. paying the smallest debts first vs paying highest interest rate first...or not using credit cards ever, even if you don't carry a balance ever, thus depriving you of a 2%+ discount on everything.)

The dude has one hell of a business. He wraps himself in the bible and has this weird religious vibe to attract to blind trust of stupid people. Then directs people to use his "hand picked" financial advisers, insurance company, etc. Who obviously give him kickbacks for the access to people that see him as an all-knowing guru. Now don't get me wrong, his "baby steps" method will work for most people that are complete idiots. In fact, they probably need things broken down into an easy to follow and psychologically gratifying way just to keep up with it. But the bottom line is that it's just not optimally efficient and is built in a way that he can feather his own nest at a bit of a detriment to his followers.

And he tells people to put all of their money into growth mutual funds. Which he claims will always get an average of 12% over time. Which is absurdly optimistic.
 
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Up 10% ytd, guess all that info doesn't matter like it hasn't for the past 10 years.
 
Up up up and away...

Looks unsustainable now lol
Short pullback is expected
Ain't doing nothing tho
 
hwks09 said:
I actually like CVS right here. Trading below 9x consensus EPS. I think the Aetna integration was a good move and will payoff big in the long run. Plus the dividend yield is not to bad at 3.07%. Bought 300 shares at $65 yesterday.

Also bought 250 shares of JPM at $94 a few days ago.

Both long term holds.
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Since this post,
CVS up 7.5%
JPM up 11.7%

Not too late to get on CVS. It's going to 85-90
 
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When was the last time we had a 15% correction in the market?
 
Pharm.C. said:
Gotta stretch that rubber band...
Funny how this entire rally has been fueled by officials changing their wording. Not a single thing has changed from Christmas Eve other than we've had more downward revisions in literally everything. Trade deadline, high expectations for Fed minutes, GDP & unemployment reports, retail earnings, Brexit. We're priced in for every one of those to be positive with a lot of room to go down.
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Can't complain with 150k up from the bottom.
 
Can we stop with the guessing? 5 years ago people said the same thing.

I'm going to keep repeating this.
 
Momus said:
Since that post, FB is up 30%, Netflix 27% lol...
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FIVE is up 31%, LRCX is up 34%...who cares? Anyone can cherry pick stocks when looking back. Fyi, I've owned both those above stocks since last summer.

I pointed out CVS since, you know, this is a pharmacy forum.
 
Pharm.C. said:
Are those realized gains? Probably not. You have the odds on your side with a buy and hold forever strategy. But to play the devil's advocate, if the S&P hits 50k-60k and then corrects 50% we're right where we are today. Do you legitimately think we won't have another recession in the next 10 years and it's a straight shot to 50k from here?

If you pull out a financial calculator and plug in a 10% return (an approximate, conservative bull market return), present value of 275, future value of 550, you get 7.23 years to reach 55k on the S&P. Do you honestly believe we won't have another recession and 50% correction in the next 7 years and are you willing to risk your money in stocks before then?
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Why do you keep stating the obvious? Everyone knows there will inevitably be a recession. Nobody, including you, knows when. Stop trying to time the market.
 
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hwks09 said:
FIVE is up 31%, LRCX is up 34%...who cares? Anyone can cherry pick stocks when looking back. Fyi, I've owned both those above stocks since last summer.

I pointed out CVS since, you know, this is a pharmacy forum.
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Who cares if s&p 500 outperformed cvs in that period lmao

No body knows nothing - Jack Bogle.
 
Momus said:
Who cares if s&p 500 outperformed cvs in that period lmao

No body knows nothing - Jack Bogle.
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I've got 1350 shares of SPY just in my taxable account.

You're missing the point of the discussion. I don't care enough to look back but I bet you were the one to complain about losing you're ass on CVS. Don't act like a jilted lover just because you made a bad call at the time.
 
hwks09 said:
I've got 1350 shares of SPY just in my taxable account.

You're missing the point of the discussion. I don't care enough to look back but I bet you were the one to complain about losing you're ass on CVS. Don't act like a jilted lover just because you made a bad call at the time.
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I got 0 individual stocks :-D hahahaha
 
Pharm.C. said:
I am aware buying and holding is mathematically the best strategy in the long term. I've never advocated swing trading. I am a recent graduate and I'm not going to put substantial amounts of money into stocks that I'll need for a downpayment on a house and emergency savings. There's a risk I'll lose half my money over the next 5 years and I won't have time to hold until we approach average returns. If we enter a recession and the market goes down 50%, I'll be more inclined to take more risk. Show me a time in history when investing after a recession was followed by a deeper recession/decline. I'm foregoing potential returns to reduce my risk, not timing the market. For now, it's a high yield savings account for me. My IRAs are invested. And this is an investment forum. If we can't talk about the current state of investments then what are we going to talk about?
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What if we only fall 20 or 30% then continue another 100% up? At what point do you add and would you ever add?

You're going to end up losing out on gains.

You already had an opportunity to get in, did you take it?
 
Pharm.C. said:
. Show me a time in history when investing after a recession was followed by a deeper recession/decline.
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1930s. The last PBC, Post Bubble Contraction.

Equity and bond markets can be in bears for decades. What will be a surprise to most is that bonds and stocks are positively correlated. They go up together and down together. So those target date vanguard funds are going to be disasters.

Also you don't need a recession to have a bear in financial assets. The financial plane and the plane of real economic activity are separate animals. It's only because our economy has become so financialized the last few decades that the two seem the same. They'll separate. After the energy stored in financial assets leaks out we could actually see a economic expansion. Main Street will be in the catbird seat, Wall Street left behind.

The Millennials have been entrained to look at the last 40 years and think all they have to do is plow money into an index fund at 5 bps fee and 30 years from now they'll be sitting pretty. What they miss is the importance of paying a risk manement fee so they don't suffer those 70 to 90% drops. Run the numbers. Even if 30 years are spent in the market, a couple bad years will take down expected returns big time. In fact, that axiomatic 8% return bandied about is only because the starting point for that figure is computed from the the last PBC.

But not all is doom. A great opportunity awaits. What becomes the premier industry in post bubble contractions? Multiple of FU money will be made in a very short period of time. Then a move from this back to deflated financial assets at much lower valuations taking a generational Warren Buffet like position that will never have to be sold.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
What if we only fall 20 or 30% then continue another 100% up? At what point do you add and would you ever add?

You're going to end up losing out on gains.

You already had an opportunity to get in, did you take it?
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Say you buy a house in a upscale hood for cash, no mortgage. But everybody else around you put 5% down and lives paycheck to paycheck.

Same thing for stock market. You might not be on margin, but a lot of other are. Now there are little waves of leverage going up and down and then there are huge secular waves. We've been on the upface of a huge 80 year wave that crested on 2016 probably. The downside secular phase will likely last 30 years. 30 years of rates going up, bond prices going down, collateral values going down, credit deflating.
 
Balls on the Line said:
Say you buy a house in a upscale hood for cash, no mortgage. But everybody else around you put 5% down and lives paycheck to paycheck.

Same thing for stock market. You might not be on margin, but a lot of other are. Now there are little waves of leverage going up and down and then there are huge secular waves. We've been on the upface of a huge 80 year wave that crested on 2016 probably. The downside secular phase will likely last 30 years. 30 years of rates going up, bond prices going down, collateral values going down, credit deflating.
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You can't know that though. Again 5 years ago, same thing.

There is very likely going to be a crash, no one knows how bad or when it will happen. This also isn't the 1930s, why do people keep bringing that up? Things have changed, we have more strategies we can use.

Look I think we need a crash and I also hope we don't try to fix it but that won't happen. We are going to continue in this up and soon down market forever.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
You can't know that though. Again 5 years ago, same thing.
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Evidence of debt satuaration has been about us the last decade. Notice central bank balance sheet expansion? If we have a functioning economy then rates would be around 5% & central banks would not be buying assets.

Just recently the ECB mentioned it will likely have to roll over a bunch of debt it bought b/c there is no real organic bid for this debt in the market, at least not at ultrahigh prices.

And the Chinese are going to a perpetual bond scheme to roll over all the bad debt in its banks.

Kuroda getting dovish again. Powell same thing. Once the central banks stepped into the bond markets the way they did there was no going back. There's no walking this intervention back w/o a jubilee.

It's sad we now have a generation that never had the opportunity to earn interest on savings. They've been conditioned that putting money in a Vanguard fund is saving. That the only way to get ahead is capital appreciation. There once was a time a schlub could get 5-6% on a bank account and ignore the siren call of 7-8% in the stock market with the risk of losing half your capital.
 
Some people can't handle risk and shouldn't be in the stock market.

Put all your money in a 2% savings account and check back in 25 years.
 
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hwks09 said:
Some people can't handle risk and shouldn't be in the stock market.

Put all your money in a 2% savings account and check back in 25 years.
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Child, you're a perfect example of what I'm talking about. The Millennial who thinks the last ten years are typical of market performance.

25 years from the now savings accounts likely will be north of 10% and stock markets might be just coming out a decades long bear phase in real terms. But that's ok keep buying overvalued FAANGs. I rather buy something unloved and dirt cheap.

Burt Coons, an airline pilot under the pen name Plunger writes about the PBC facing us. His target for a certain unloved index is 4000 similar to my own. It's currently below 200. Yes, a 20 fold gain for index fraught with pigs and poorly managed companies. Can you imagine the gains if you're in the best companies? And this will likely come in a very short timespan.

Weekend Report- The Post Bubble Contraction comes in the form of a global liquidity crisis | Rambus Chartology

I rather postion myself at cheap levels and sell into strength. I'll realize gains on the way up. Probably will only have 20% of my core position in place for the blow off phase so I'll be leaving a lot of money on the table, but that's ok. I understand myself. It bother me to chase high prices. I prefer high reward/low risk unlike the FOMO crowd which needs instant gratification and conflates thier penis size with what their porfolio has done the last quarter.

No, I rather be in a position to hanging with a certain Undefeated Gaul on the beach with his posse of bootylicious rumpshakers sipping courvoisier and Cristal.

 
While I can't say these guys will be wrong since at some point they won't, I hope they haven't lost too much during the bull market.
 
wagrxm2000 said:
While I can't say these guys will be wrong since at some point they won't, I hope they haven't lost too much during the bull market.
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But have you made anything? If you haven't realized any gains you have not made anything. All those paper gains can be gone in a week.

For instance, say Xi and Trump hammer out a deal. That will be the biggest sell the news event ever. This 8 week upswing since Xmas eve has been a short squeeze. You see viscious rallies in a bear market. Those are shorts covering positions.

But what's scary is that there will never be a trade deal. The China America vendor financing arrangement ended in 2014. Eurasia does not need Oceania. So when the market realizes the days of Apple arbing slave labor are over...oh, lordie be...how many ETFs have AAPL as a top 5 holding? Can we not see a train wreck at the close of a session as these ETFs try to track an index? What's likely to happen is somebody underwriting an equity swap that these ETFs use to help keep NAV close to an index wil blow up like the VIX ETNs last year. Then the fun begins as Chris Cole warns about as this implicit short volatility trade in the trillions unwinds. And guess what, you Bogleheads though you don't realize it are ballz deep in this trade.
 
Balls on the Line said:
But have you made anything? If you haven't realized any gains you have not made anything. All those paper gains can be gone in a week.

For instance, say Xi and Trump hammer out a deal. That will be the biggest sell the news event ever. This 8 week upswing since Xmas eve has been a short squeeze. You see viscious rallies in a bear market. Those are shorts covering positions.

But what's scary is that there will never be a trade deal. The China America vendor financing arrangement ended in 2014. Eurasia does not need Oceania. So when the market realizes the days of Apple arbing slave labor are over...oh, lordie be...how many ETFs have AAPL as a top 5 holding? Can we not see a train wreck at the close of a session as these ETFs try to track an index? What's likely to happen is somebody underwriting an equity swap that these ETFs use to help keep NAV close to an index wil blow up like the VIX ETNs last year. Then the fun begins as Chris Cole warns about as this implicit short volatility trade in the trillions unwinds. And guess what, you Bogleheads though you don't realize it are ballz deep in this trade.
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Uh yeah I've made like 300% from the low.

That's another favorite excuse, paper gains. No those are actual gains, I don't need any of that why would I sell when it's going to continue going up.

You didn't answer the question, when did you get out and when will you get back in?

Don't respond until you look foolish and say when you get out and your plan to get back in.

Seriously, how much have you lost since you clearly haven't been in this market in years?
 
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Pharm.C. said:
Investment strategy is greatly affected by financial status. For someone 10+ years into their career, it's easy to say invest everything in stocks and hold forever. You probably have a house with a lot of equity, an emergency fund, and the remainder is invested in stocks. If you only had a 100k net worth today, would you invest it all in stocks? If the market goes down 50% you'll have to wait years to break even again. You won't be able to buy a house precisely when houses are the cheapest. Risky investments are something you do after establishing financial security. Part of my savings are invested into my IRA automatically regardless of economic conditions. The other part sits in my 2.45% interest savings account unless I were to find myself with an opportunity to invest in something low risk/high yield (i.e. stocks after a recession or 50% crash).

Let's just agree that buy and hold is the best strategy for investing, but that only money not needed for life necessities should be invested (money you're not going to need for at least 10 years). I agree that if you're timing the market to trying to beat the S&P you're going to get burned. You can't predict the immediate future, but you can assess risk in current economic conditions. High valuations mean that there's more risk in the market, not necessarily that stocks will go up or down in the short term. I can't know for sure there will be a recession within the next couple years, but I do know that it's possible and that if I buy after a recession/crash at lower valuations I would be able to buy stocks at a more acceptable risk level for my financial status.
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I actually disagree, early investing is the most important time. Compounding is your friend. Even if your 100k turns into 50k, you should actually be happy since that's not even half a years salary and now you get to invest cheaper. Sure you could say it would have been better to wait and get that 100k in after the decline but you can't argue against buy and hold.

You also shouldn't be investing your down payment for a house anyways.

So when are you buying?
 
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Pharm C has a point. Buying at high valuations locks in poor returns. I wonder if GMO uses governemnt deflators. Probably do. Which means the chart is actually uglier.


1889994805.jpg
 
I just like how none of these bears will say when they got out and when they will buy back.
 
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Pharm.C. said:
If your 100k turns into 50k, you have 50k. There is no more money to invest and be happy about investing at the bottom. I'll invest in stocks after I buy a house and have a substantial cash cushion in case this profession doesnt work out. I live in a high cost of living area. I could live off 100k over three years easy, but that would mean no house. Not sure the 6 month rule applies to our profession anymore with the uncertainties we have.
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But when? When will you buy? It's not a hard question.

I can tell you right now you will never be in this market and will continue to lose out. There's no reason why we couldn't go up another 20% then "crash" to recent lows. Would you get in at that point?
 
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Pharm.C. said:
I am aware buying and holding is mathematically the best strategy in the long term. I've never advocated swing trading. I am a recent graduate and I'm not going to put substantial amounts of money into stocks that I'll need for a downpayment on a house and emergency savings. There's a risk I'll lose half my money over the next 5 years and I won't have time to hold until we approach average returns. If we enter a recession and the market goes down 50%, I'll be more inclined to take more risk. Show me a time in history when investing after a recession was followed by a deeper recession/decline. I'm foregoing potential returns to reduce my risk, not timing the market. For now, it's a high yield savings account for me. And this is an investment forum. If we can't talk about the current state of investments then what are we going to talk about?
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No one should be in 100% in stock or put a dime in stocks if they aren't ready to lose 50% tomorrow. You may lose for the next 20 years because you keep waiting for that 50% drop that never happens. Trying to catch 50% drop is incredibly difficult. For 80 years stock history, there had not been a time we had stocks stay down at -50% on year END. You blink once, you miss that drop. I know I have lost hundreds thousands dollars in gains because I accumulated some cash instead of dump them to equity every time I have money. You will be just another me. Cash on the side means you can't stand the risk of stocks. It's another form of market timing. You need to change your asset allocation to more bonds. 60/40, 40/60, or 20/80 since 100% equity obviously isn't for you. Before anyone say rising interest rates will destroy you, yada yada yada. I have bonds and still hold it. Do you know how much I have lost going from 0% -> 2.5% interest hikes over the last 2 years? -$40, that's 0.1% of the principal and I still get paid from higher interest rate new bonds issued.

With a time horizon of 30 years, losing 50% tomorrow and getting it all back later AND MORE isn't a big deal. I'll be happy if that happens tomorrow. My human capital is my biggest asset. I can keep buying at 50% discount and I will reap more rewards later. If you are saving for a house, you should absolutely not put it in stocks. That money may not be there when you need it. Stocks has 5-10 yrs minimum holding time period and 20 yrs holding to never lose on that money. Stick your down payment to VUSXX treasury money market funds, get 2.36%, pay no state tax, and forget about stocks for a while.
 
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The flattening YC probably expalins the muted losses on bond funds so far.

The bigger risk to bonds is not if LT rates rise, but if central banks start direct fx intervention. Then the losses will be in real terms, not nominal.

Eurasia does not need Oceania.

UPDATE 1-Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries in December hits record high -data | Reuters

https://www.politico.eu/blogs/the-coming-wars/2019/02/russia-china-alliance-rule-the-world/

Then we have the pollution of corporate balance sheets by this decade long binge of using borrowed money to buyback stock and dividends. The cult of equities is an American phenomenon. Rest of world realizes how ephemeral equity can be in the capital structure. Like a candle in a breeze it's easily snuffed out. There will be a lot of dilution down the road if not outright debt for equity swaps.

DzpElQLWkAEZvPJ.jpg:large
 
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:eyebrow:
Balls on the Line said:
The flattening YC probably expalins the muted losses on bond funds so far.

The bigger risk to bonds is not if LT rates rise, but if central banks start direct fx intervention. Then the losses will be in real terms, not nominal.

Eurasia does not need Oceania.

UPDATE 1-Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries in December hits record high -data | Reuters

https://www.politico.eu/blogs/the-coming-wars/2019/02/russia-china-alliance-rule-the-world/

Then we have the pollution of corporate balance sheets by this decade long binge of using borrowed money to buyback stock and dividends. The cult of equities is an American phenomenon. Rest of world realizes how ephemeral equity can be in the capital structure. Like a candle in a breeze it's easily snuffed out. There will be a lot of dilution down the road if not outright debt for equity swaps.

DzpElQLWkAEZvPJ.jpg:large
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This person IS carol.
 
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And I'm going to continue to say the same thing. You could say the same thing 5 years ago.
 
What is the point of earning 7-9% a year? So, you can retire at 65?

You need to bet again everybody else to make it big. I would rather roll my dice and see where it land than to be average.
 
BMBiology said:
What is the point of earning 7-9% a year? So, you can retire at 65?

You need to bet again everybody else to make it big. I would rather roll my dice and see where it land than to be average.
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Fu3k gambling. Being average > 99% wanna be active trader *****s out there.

7% will give me more than $15-20M at retirement. I love being average.

Heck, it's gonna be $5.5M at 65 just on 401k alone... I'll eat my avg money.
 
Momus said:
Fu3k gambling. Being average > 99% wanna be active trader *****s out there.

7% will give me more than $15-20M at retirement. I love being average.

Heck, it's gonna be $5.5M at 65 just on 401k alone... I'll eat my avg money.
Click to expand...

Subtract your mommy’s money and you would be average!
 
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