The Mother of All "What Are My Chances?" Thread

[bad virus]

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Hi guys,

So I noticed that as med students, we go through many phases of total relaxation to full on neurosis. Some times in those moments of weakness, we end up posting the dreaded, what are my chances thread.

I was thinking we should do an anonymous collection of stats that include some of the following and possibly even sticky it.

Example would be:

Programs Applied: In-N-Out, Subway, White Castle, Vandy, etc . . .
Programs Rejected: Subway, Vandy
Programs Accepted: In-N-Out, White Castle
Interviewed at: In-N-Out only, etc . . .


Step I: 327 (Feb/20xx) - studied like a boss
Step II: 237 (Jan/20xx) - brought lunch with me only

AOA: Junior, Senior, No AOA at my school, Too cool for AOA, etc . . .

First year grades: 6 A's, 2 B's and one C
Second year grades: 7 B's
EM Grades: 1 A, 1 B.

Rec Letters: 2 letters from In N out, 1 from White castle etc . . .

Volunteer: Handed out free burgers to homeless during my free time.
Work: Fry cook at white castle
Research: First author on "Perfect grill time for unthawed patties on a spec 40 grill master." in Journal of BBQ
Awards/Honors: Best burger flipper at In-N-Out rotation
School: Top 40 NIH, Not top 40

etc . . .

and if your brave, you can even post a ROL and where you matched on it too, but not required.

If we keep a running tab of this kind of thread and keep it anonymous, we can give the next year applicants a nice resource and cut down on a lot of What are my chances posts.

LOL, the other alternative is just have a link to the Charting outcomes and this whole thing being pointless.

So here is the question, do you think that such a super thread would be useful or pointless for applicants if we keep the app cycle listed on each post to watch trends and also keep it anonymous to encourage people who don't have step 1's of 329 to post?

BTW, when I did a search, I saw a similar thread, but it wasn't organized and was from like 2003 to 2006.

 

[always tired]

I like it . . .

I think it would be useful for the guys next year, but I don't know how comfortable I am about posting my ROL with where I matched as that might make it easy to track down who is who and show my program that I didn't like them enough to rank them higher than number 6.

Other than that, I think it would be a very useful little thread.

BTW, can anyone explain the whole In N Out Fatty McFatty Pants thing to me, I feel like I'm missing out on a totally cool inside joke.

 

[Apollyon]

BTW, can anyone explain the whole In N Out Fatty McFatty Pants thing to me, I feel like I'm missing out on a totally cool inside joke.

About 9 years ago, a med student was insulting me pretty badly, and someone said that an applicant insulting a resident at a program where the applicant had interviewed was really bad form (the guy ended up not getting ranked). Someone else said that that is like calling the PD "Fatty McFattypants". In-N-Out was just a thing about programs; it is the irony of fast food being a lower level, transitional job. Had someone on the east coast started it, it might have been 5 guys or Cookout or Steak N Shake.

 

[deleted109597]

Maybe you could write a code and create the mdapplicants type format you have to an EMapplicants website.
Next step, money.


Of course, xaelia gets all of it, since he wrote the first website, but still...

 

[RustedFox]

BTW, can anyone explain the whole In N Out Fatty McFatty Pants thing to me, I feel like I'm missing out on a totally cool inside joke.

I look forward to playing the "Fatty McFatty Pants" game every chance I get.

Don't feel bad about having to ask. I asked the same question some years back.

 

[Lanolin]

So here is the question, do you think that such a super thread would be useful or pointless for applicants if we keep the app cycle listed on each post to watch trends and also keep it anonymous to encourage people who don't have step 1's of 329 to post?

BTW, when I did a search, I saw a similar thread, but it wasn't organized and was from like 2003 to 2006.

I think it would be helpful to show what scores/grades might be needed to get an interview x, y, and z. Beyond that, I think it would be cool to see how some of the stellar applicants are ranking their programs (some guy with a 260's ranking state school #1 for instance). It would calm anxiety and show the next round of applicants that they should think about fit more than prestige.

 

[KeyzerSoze]

I think it would be useful for the guys next year, but I don't know how comfortable I am about posting my ROL with where I matched as that might make it easy to track down who is who and show my program that I didn't like them enough to rank them higher than number 6.
.

I thought it sounded like a great idea, but this is a big problem. Most programs have no more than a handful of residents from any given school, so it would be pretty easy for people to figure out who you are. The rest of the info, including the list of places you interviewed and how you ranked them but not where you matched would probably be OK.

 

[sylvanthus]

Sounds like a good idea. Problem is people with awesome stats are going to be the ones posting, while the underdogs likely won't post as much. So, it will be heavily skewed.

 

[FSU2013]

Sounds like a good idea. Problem is people with awesome stats are going to be the ones posting, while the underdogs likely won't post as much. So, it will be heavily skewed.

Always the SDN connundrum - neuroses begets neuroses.

 

[UnderwaterDoc]

Always the SDN connundrum - neuroses begets neuroses.

No no no, it's "one EKG begets another" amirite?!?!

....sorry, too much Mattu will do that to yah.

 

[always tired]

Then it is settled. Who do we submit our anonymous info to? Bad Virus, are you up for the task?

Also, is s/he even a fourth year or just a pre-med?

Also, thanks for clearing that up Apollyon, and RF, I can't wait to start playing the game too.

Thanks.

 

[anonyem]

I'd much rather submit this info to a form than to any person - this will be my biggest hesitation

 

[Lanolin]

Then it is settled. Who do we submit our anonymous info to? Bad Virus, are you up for the task?

Also, is s/he even a fourth year or just a pre-med?

Also, thanks for clearing that up Apollyon, and RF, I can't wait to start playing the game too.

Thanks.

He's a 4th year.

 

[bad virus]

Thanks Lanolin,

Yes I am a he and I am also a 4th year. Good luck with the match.

Also, I have no problem posting the anonymous submissions for others. I have already received one from a poster on here, so feel free Mr/Mrs. Tired.

 

[bad virus]

Anonymous Submission on behalf of another poster

I applied to 27 programs, My application was submitted on the first day of applications which was September 15. My final Recommendation letter was in on September 20th of 2013. At that point, my application was complete except for my step II score. Personally, I feel that I over applied, and if I did it all over again, I would only apply to 20 programs at max. The advice I received was apply to 30 programs, but I honestly could not find 30 different places where I would like to train/live. My ROL will be posted after February 20th, 2013

Step I: 250 (Feb/2011) - Studied 6 weeks
Step II: 260 (Jan/2013) - Studied 2 weeks

AOA: Junior

First year grades: 7 A, 1 B
Second year grades: 6 A, 1 B
EM Grades: 1 A (Home), 1 B (Away).
Rec Letters: 2 SLORS (1 home, 1 away), 1 LOR Peds/ED elective

Volunteer: 6 serious efforts
Work: 3 jobs during med school
Research: 2 research projects, no publications
Awards/Honors: Full Ride Scholarship and other various Scholarships
School: Non-top 40 NIH (Regular State School)
Graduate Degree: No

Interview offered and accepted:

1. Los Angeles County-Harbor-UCLA Medical Center Program, Torrance, CA
2. Maricopa Medical Center Program, Phoenix, AZ
3. University of Arizona Program, Tucson, AZ
4. Alameda County Medical Center Program, Oakland, CA
5. Orlando Health Program, Orlando, FL
6. Indiana University School of Medicine Program, Indianapolis, IN
7. Hennepin County Medical Center Program, Minneapolis, MN
8. Carolinas Medical Center Program, Charlotte, NC
9. University of New Mexico Program, Albuquerque, NM
10. University Hospital/University of Cincinnati College of Medicine Program, Cincinnati, OH
11. Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center Paul L Foster School of Medicine Program, El Paso, TX
12. University of Texas Southwestern Medical School Program, Dallas, TX

Interview offered but declined:

1. Loma Linda University Program, Loma Linda, CA
2. University of California (San Francisco)/Fresno Program, Fresno, CA
3. Christiana Care Health Services Program, Newark, DE
4. University of South Florida Morsani Program, Tampa, FL
5. John H Stroger Hospital of Cook County Program, Chicago, IL
6. University of Nevada School of Medicine Program, Las Vegas, NV
7. UPMC Medical Education Program, Pittsburgh, PA
8. Vanderbilt University Program, Nashville, TN
9. University of Texas at Houston Program, Houston, TX

Rejected:

1. University of Southern California/LAC+USC Medical Center Program, Los Angeles, CA
2. University of California (San Diego) Program, San Diego, CA
3. Denver Health Medical Center Program, Denver, CO
4. SUNY Health Science Center at Brooklyn Program, Brooklyn, NY - No word from program so assumed rejection
5. Oregon Health & Science University Program, Portland, OR
6. Christus Spohn Memorial Hospital Program, Corpus Christi, TX - No word from program so assumed rejection

 

[bad virus]

Sounds like a good idea. Problem is people with awesome stats are going to be the ones posting, while the underdogs likely won't post as much. So, it will be heavily skewed.

Yes this. I hope that the anonymous submissions will make the silent majority feel like posting there stats.

Also, you guys are right, posting your match location would be stupid and is just asking for trouble.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

Sounds like a good idea. Problem is people with awesome stats are going to be the ones posting, while the underdogs likely won't post as much. So, it will be heavily skewed.

Agree. Posters who love seeing their stats/app will dominate this thread, most likely further skewing this forum from reality.

 

[FSU2013]

Agree. Posters who love seeing their stats/app will dominate this thread, most likely further skewing this forum from reality.

What we really need to do is make another "match-itis" survey for 2013 where people can anonymously submit and someone does a linear regression on step 1, 2, EM grades, number of EM rotations, at what number on the ROL they matched, AOA, number ranked and all other variables that could end up being statistically significant after the match.

We need about 50 willing applicants (the more the better, and I'm sure there are a ton of lurkers who would contribut( to make this worth while and someone who is decent with basic statistics. I wouldn't mind doing it, but if someone else really has a hankering to do so that would be great. Or if people don't like the idea of having a potential future co-resident as the one compiling the data, having a current resident or attending (preferably not involved in the leadership of an academic ED - EMPD, I'm talking about you, sorry, lol) do it would be great.

Thoughts?

 

[dchristismi]

You asked for thoughts.

The first one that popped into my head was "Thank God I don't have to do THAT again!"

Not that it helps you, but it will all be over soon.

 

[RxnMan]

What we really need to do is make another "match-itis" survey for 2013 where people can anonymously submit and someone does a linear regression on step 1, 2, EM grades, number of EM rotations, at what number on the ROL they matched, AOA, number ranked and all other variables that could end up being statistically significant after the match.

We need about 50 willing applicants (the more the better, and I'm sure there are a ton of lurkers who would contribut( to make this worth while and someone who is decent with basic statistics. I wouldn't mind doing it, but if someone else really has a hankering to do so that would be great. Or if people don't like the idea of having a potential future co-resident as the one compiling the data, having a current resident or attending (preferably not involved in the leadership of an academic ED - EMPD, I'm talking about you, sorry, lol) do it would be great.

Thoughts?

Basically, it sounds like you want me to come back.

 

[sylvanthus]

Anonymous Submission on behalf of another poster

I applied to 27 programs, My application was submitted on the first day of applications which was September 15. My final Recommendation letter was in on September 20th of 2013. At that point, my application was complete except for my step II score. Personally, I feel that I over applied, and if I did it all over again, I would only apply to 20 programs at max. The advice I received was apply to 30 programs, but I honestly could not find 30 different places where I would like to train/live. My ROL will be posted after February 20th, 2013

Step I: 250 (Feb/2011) - Studied 6 weeks
Step II: 260 (Jan/2013) - Studied 2 weeks

AOA: Junior

First year grades: 7 A, 1 B
Second year grades: 6 A, 1 B
EM Grades: 1 A (Home), 1 B (Away).
Rec Letters: 2 SLORS (1 home, 1 away), 1 LOR Peds/ED elective

Volunteer: 6 serious efforts
Work: 3 jobs during med school
Research: 2 research projects, no publications
Awards/Honors: Full Ride Scholarship and other various Scholarships
School: Non-top 40 NIH (Regular State School)
Graduate Degree: No

Interview offered and accepted:

1. Los Angeles County-Harbor-UCLA Medical Center Program, Torrance, CA
2. Maricopa Medical Center Program, Phoenix, AZ
3. University of Arizona Program, Tucson, AZ
4. Alameda County Medical Center Program, Oakland, CA
5. Orlando Health Program, Orlando, FL
6. Indiana University School of Medicine Program, Indianapolis, IN
7. Hennepin County Medical Center Program, Minneapolis, MN
8. Carolinas Medical Center Program, Charlotte, NC
9. University of New Mexico Program, Albuquerque, NM
10. University Hospital/University of Cincinnati College of Medicine Program, Cincinnati, OH
11. Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center Paul L Foster School of Medicine Program, El Paso, TX
12. University of Texas Southwestern Medical School Program, Dallas, TX

Interview offered but declined:

1. Loma Linda University Program, Loma Linda, CA
2. University of California (San Francisco)/Fresno Program, Fresno, CA
3. Christiana Care Health Services Program, Newark, DE
4. University of South Florida Morsani Program, Tampa, FL
5. John H Stroger Hospital of Cook County Program, Chicago, IL
6. University of Nevada School of Medicine Program, Las Vegas, NV
7. UPMC Medical Education Program, Pittsburgh, PA
8. Vanderbilt University Program, Nashville, TN
9. University of Texas at Houston Program, Houston, TX

Rejected:

1. University of Southern California/LAC+USC Medical Center Program, Los Angeles, CA
2. University of California (San Diego) Program, San Diego, CA
3. Denver Health Medical Center Program, Denver, CO
4. SUNY Health Science Center at Brooklyn Program, Brooklyn, NY - No word from program so assumed rejection
5. Oregon Health & Science University Program, Portland, OR
6. Christus Spohn Memorial Hospital Program, Corpus Christi, TX - No word from program so assumed rejection

Lol point proven. We need some average and/or below average people to post or this thread will be useless. Otherwise, it will just serve to freak out next year's applicants.

Heres to hoping we get a good spread.

 

[FSU2013]

You asked for thoughts.

The first one that popped into my head was "Thank God I don't have to do THAT again!"

Not that it helps you, but it will all be over soon.

Lol. Thanks, I think.

Basically, it sounds like you want me to come back.

I didn't want to explicitly volunteer you, but.....calling rxnman....

You down to do it? I know that it would be extremely helpful to people in the future like the ones you've done in the past. It seems like the landscape of applications has changed and it would be nice to be able to compare this to past years. Further, if you want to pass the reigns on next year (as I hopefully won't be an applicant again - just the thought of that makes me physically ill), I'd be happy to do it.

 

[JohnnyW]

Anonymous Submission on behalf of another poster

I applied to 27 programs, My application was submitted on the first day of applications which was September 15. My final Recommendation letter was in on September 20th of 2013. At that point, my application was complete except for my step II score. Personally, I feel that I over applied, and if I did it all over again, I would only apply to 20 programs at max. The advice I received was apply to 30 programs, but I honestly could not find 30 different places where I would like to train/live. My ROL will be posted after February 20th, 2013

Step I: 250 (Feb/2011) - Studied 6 weeks
Step II: 260 (Jan/2013) - Studied 2 weeks

AOA: Junior

First year grades: 7 A, 1 B
Second year grades: 6 A, 1 B
EM Grades: 1 A (Home), 1 B (Away).
Rec Letters: 2 SLORS (1 home, 1 away), 1 LOR Peds/ED elective

Volunteer: 6 serious efforts
Work: 3 jobs during med school
Research: 2 research projects, no publications
Awards/Honors: Full Ride Scholarship and other various Scholarships
School: Non-top 40 NIH (Regular State School)
Graduate Degree: No

Interview offered and accepted:

1. Los Angeles County-Harbor-UCLA Medical Center Program, Torrance, CA
2. Maricopa Medical Center Program, Phoenix, AZ
3. University of Arizona Program, Tucson, AZ
4. Alameda County Medical Center Program, Oakland, CA
5. Orlando Health Program, Orlando, FL
6. Indiana University School of Medicine Program, Indianapolis, IN
7. Hennepin County Medical Center Program, Minneapolis, MN
8. Carolinas Medical Center Program, Charlotte, NC
9. University of New Mexico Program, Albuquerque, NM
10. University Hospital/University of Cincinnati College of Medicine Program, Cincinnati, OH
11. Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center Paul L Foster School of Medicine Program, El Paso, TX
12. University of Texas Southwestern Medical School Program, Dallas, TX

Interview offered but declined:

1. Loma Linda University Program, Loma Linda, CA
2. University of California (San Francisco)/Fresno Program, Fresno, CA
3. Christiana Care Health Services Program, Newark, DE
4. University of South Florida Morsani Program, Tampa, FL
5. John H Stroger Hospital of Cook County Program, Chicago, IL
6. University of Nevada School of Medicine Program, Las Vegas, NV
7. UPMC Medical Education Program, Pittsburgh, PA
8. Vanderbilt University Program, Nashville, TN
9. University of Texas at Houston Program, Houston, TX

Rejected:

1. University of Southern California/LAC+USC Medical Center Program, Los Angeles, CA
2. University of California (San Diego) Program, San Diego, CA
3. Denver Health Medical Center Program, Denver, CO
4. SUNY Health Science Center at Brooklyn Program, Brooklyn, NY - No word from program so assumed rejection
5. Oregon Health & Science University Program, Portland, OR
6. Christus Spohn Memorial Hospital Program, Corpus Christi, TX - No word from program so assumed rejection

A 250/260 and programs like UCSD and Downstate wouldn't offer interviews? This process is just confusing.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

What we really need to do is make another "match-itis" survey for 2013 where people can anonymously submit and someone does a linear regression on step 1, 2, EM grades, number of EM rotations, at what number on the ROL they matched, AOA, number ranked and all other variables that could end up being statistically significant after the match.

We need about 50 willing applicants (the more the better, and I'm sure there are a ton of lurkers who would contribut( to make this worth while and someone who is decent with basic statistics. I wouldn't mind doing it, but if someone else really has a hankering to do so that would be great. Or if people don't like the idea of having a potential future co-resident as the one compiling the data, having a current resident or attending (preferably not involved in the leadership of an academic ED - EMPD, I'm talking about you, sorry, lol) do it would be great.

Thoughts?

Agree. Less fawning over ourselves and more analysis of sorts. But again I have little faith that we'd get enough non-SDN applicants to provide any real value other tham once again pointing out that the SDN bias is very real and quite profound.

 

[FSU2013]

Agree. Less fawning over ourselves and more analysis of sorts. But again I have little faith that we'd get enough non-SDN applicants to provide any real value other tham once again pointing out that the SDN bias is very real and quite profound.

But the nice thing is that we can use a SDN poll in concert with charting the outcomes.

 

[DreamingTheLive]

But the nice thing is that we can use a SDN poll in concert with charting the outcomes.

I would actually be very interested in seeing how these compare.

 

[bad virus]

Rxn you need to do this for us. Pretty please with a cherry on top. I don't like posting other people's stuff and I'm not good with numbers.

Also, you guys should not pick on the guy who posted, I found his post interesting.