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As many of you know, TMDSAS utilizes a match system where applicants rank the schools they interview at, and hopefully on match day gain acceptance to one of those schools. The majority of Texas residents manage to secure an interview somewhere, and an even greater proportion of Texas residents obtain an acceptance from one or multiple interviews. Due to the Texas Match, all spots at TMDSAS schools are completely filled on match day, with each accepted applicant holding only one acceptance to a TMDSAS school. This begs the question; what happens to students who didn’t match to any TMDSAS school on match day and are waitlisted?
Another question that arises is; does a person on a TMDSAS school waitlist have a lower shot at acceptance than a person on waitlists for AMCAS schools? Because AMCAS schools don’t use a match system, each medical school can give a larger portion of acceptances, and waitlist movement can vary greatly among schools.
Sadly, I do not have the data available to compare general waitlist chances at TMDSAS and AMCAS schools, because there is no AAMC data sheet showing how many unique interviewees there are. I can, however, give insight to the first question proposed.
Disclaimer: This statistical analysis only applies to IS Texas residents applying through TMDSAS.
According to TAAHP report of 2015, there were 2134 unique Texas residents interviewed at TMDSAS schools, and there were 3943 unique Texas residents who applied to TMDSAS schools. This means approximately 54% of Texas applicants who applied through TMDSAS were interviewed. Of those 2134 unique Texas residents applying through TMDSAS, 1482 were given acceptances on match day, and including seats given to OOS applicants, all TMDSAS medical school seats were filled. Just for good measure, the acceptance rate for Texas residents who interviewed at a TMDSAS school was approximately 70%! This means that 652 unique Texas residents who were interviewed at TMDSAS schools did not match to a single school on match day.
So what exactly happened to those 652 interviewees who didn’t match anywhere on match day? Did they eventually gain an acceptance to a TMDSAS school?
As we’re about to see, the TMDSAS schools waitlists can be an interesting place indeed.
According to gyngyn, Table A-5: Applicants to U.S. Medical Schools by In or Out-of-State Matriculation Status, 2014-2015 states that 215 Texas residents matriculated to an OOS AMCAS medical school. Because TMDSAS is the default application service for Texas residents, it’s safe to assume that those 215 Texas residents who matriculated OOS applied through both AMCAS and TMDSAS. It’s also safe to assume that these 215 Texas residents already held an acceptance to a TMDSAS school because of the bias OOS schools have against Texas applicants. As many of the adcoms on SDN have stated, many OOS schools don’t bother interviewing or accepting Texas residents unless they are candidates for scholarship money (IE highly sought after, meaning that they likely already hold an IS acceptance).
Another variable to consider is Baylor College of Medicine. Each year, their entering class is composed of 75%, or roughly 140 Texas residents. Because BCM is arguably the most competitive school to gain entry to in Texas, it’s safe to assume that any Texas resident accepted there already holds an acceptance from a TMDSAS school.
Yet another variable to consider is AACOMAS. In 2015 175 Texas residents matriculated to an AACOMAS school. This variable won’t be used in my calculation, because it’s impossible to determine how many of these applicants were competitive for admission into TMDSAS schools.
What do these variables tell us? Simple, a small proportion of Texas residents matriculate out of state.
What else does this tell us? The TMDSAS school waitlists aren’t such a bad place to be.
Due to the assertions about competitiveness of Texas applicants accepted to BCM or another AMCAS school, most likely a total of 355 Texas residents (BCM+AMCAS) who were already accepted to a TMDSAS school instead chose to attend an OOS school or BCM. This means that of the 1482 Texas residents accepted through the TMDSAS match, only 1127 matriculated to a TMDSAS school. Because TMDSAS schools must keep their 90% Texas resident quota, the majority of these seats went to unmatched IS residents. So of those 652 Texas residents who were interviewed but did not match to a TMDSAS school, approximately 355 were later pulled off the waitlist and matriculated to a TMDSAS school. Approximately 54% of waitlisted applicants were eventually pulled off the waitlist.
This percentage has likely dropped in recent years, because all TMDSAS schools increase the amount of interviewees per year yet their class sizes remain the same.
Note: This calculation doesn’t take into account the OOS applicants to TMDSAS schools who were accepted but ultimately chose to attend an AMCAS school because that data doesn’t exist.
Tl;dr The TMDSAS school waitlists aren’t as bleak as they might seem. Have hope.
Data sources:
TAAHP Report 2015 https://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/tmdsas-2016.1134412/page-8
gyngyn's advice to Texas applicant looking to apply OOS https://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/texas-resident-applying-out-of-state.1230785/
Another question that arises is; does a person on a TMDSAS school waitlist have a lower shot at acceptance than a person on waitlists for AMCAS schools? Because AMCAS schools don’t use a match system, each medical school can give a larger portion of acceptances, and waitlist movement can vary greatly among schools.
Sadly, I do not have the data available to compare general waitlist chances at TMDSAS and AMCAS schools, because there is no AAMC data sheet showing how many unique interviewees there are. I can, however, give insight to the first question proposed.
Disclaimer: This statistical analysis only applies to IS Texas residents applying through TMDSAS.
According to TAAHP report of 2015, there were 2134 unique Texas residents interviewed at TMDSAS schools, and there were 3943 unique Texas residents who applied to TMDSAS schools. This means approximately 54% of Texas applicants who applied through TMDSAS were interviewed. Of those 2134 unique Texas residents applying through TMDSAS, 1482 were given acceptances on match day, and including seats given to OOS applicants, all TMDSAS medical school seats were filled. Just for good measure, the acceptance rate for Texas residents who interviewed at a TMDSAS school was approximately 70%! This means that 652 unique Texas residents who were interviewed at TMDSAS schools did not match to a single school on match day.
So what exactly happened to those 652 interviewees who didn’t match anywhere on match day? Did they eventually gain an acceptance to a TMDSAS school?
As we’re about to see, the TMDSAS schools waitlists can be an interesting place indeed.
According to gyngyn, Table A-5: Applicants to U.S. Medical Schools by In or Out-of-State Matriculation Status, 2014-2015 states that 215 Texas residents matriculated to an OOS AMCAS medical school. Because TMDSAS is the default application service for Texas residents, it’s safe to assume that those 215 Texas residents who matriculated OOS applied through both AMCAS and TMDSAS. It’s also safe to assume that these 215 Texas residents already held an acceptance to a TMDSAS school because of the bias OOS schools have against Texas applicants. As many of the adcoms on SDN have stated, many OOS schools don’t bother interviewing or accepting Texas residents unless they are candidates for scholarship money (IE highly sought after, meaning that they likely already hold an IS acceptance).
Another variable to consider is Baylor College of Medicine. Each year, their entering class is composed of 75%, or roughly 140 Texas residents. Because BCM is arguably the most competitive school to gain entry to in Texas, it’s safe to assume that any Texas resident accepted there already holds an acceptance from a TMDSAS school.
Yet another variable to consider is AACOMAS. In 2015 175 Texas residents matriculated to an AACOMAS school. This variable won’t be used in my calculation, because it’s impossible to determine how many of these applicants were competitive for admission into TMDSAS schools.
What do these variables tell us? Simple, a small proportion of Texas residents matriculate out of state.
What else does this tell us? The TMDSAS school waitlists aren’t such a bad place to be.
Due to the assertions about competitiveness of Texas applicants accepted to BCM or another AMCAS school, most likely a total of 355 Texas residents (BCM+AMCAS) who were already accepted to a TMDSAS school instead chose to attend an OOS school or BCM. This means that of the 1482 Texas residents accepted through the TMDSAS match, only 1127 matriculated to a TMDSAS school. Because TMDSAS schools must keep their 90% Texas resident quota, the majority of these seats went to unmatched IS residents. So of those 652 Texas residents who were interviewed but did not match to a TMDSAS school, approximately 355 were later pulled off the waitlist and matriculated to a TMDSAS school. Approximately 54% of waitlisted applicants were eventually pulled off the waitlist.
This percentage has likely dropped in recent years, because all TMDSAS schools increase the amount of interviewees per year yet their class sizes remain the same.
Note: This calculation doesn’t take into account the OOS applicants to TMDSAS schools who were accepted but ultimately chose to attend an AMCAS school because that data doesn’t exist.
Tl;dr The TMDSAS school waitlists aren’t as bleak as they might seem. Have hope.
Data sources:
TAAHP Report 2015 https://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/tmdsas-2016.1134412/page-8
gyngyn's advice to Texas applicant looking to apply OOS https://forums.studentdoctor.net/threads/texas-resident-applying-out-of-state.1230785/
