The ultimate COVID thread

[Robotic Wis-Hipple]

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Any way you slice it April was a bad month. On March 31 there were about 5000 Americans dead from COVID. Despite fairly drastic measures, on April 30 there were about 64000 Americans dead. That’s 59000 in 30 days or almost 2000/day. Hopefully April was the peak and things will tail off.

They will, until June after half the country reopens in May

 

[OTCAwesome]

Is this not stock manipulation? Tesla dropped 10 percent from this tweet
Elon Musk just declared that he's selling almost all his physical belongings and 'will own no house' and that he thinks Tesla's stock price is 'too high'

I mean everything is being manipulated by the algos and the short sellers. Ultimately, we're definitely headed towards a W shaped recovery once the irrational market realizes the gravity of >30 million unemployed. With the average Joe investor there's a lot of FOMO going on right now along with the 6 trillion heroin injection by the fed. Personally, speaking of short selling, I placed a 20k June SPY put, full knowing I could loose it all, but once we re-open, things are going to deteriorate again.

 

[Nephro critical care]

I am concerned that Trump is going to come after China in order to deflect attention from his shambolic handling of this COVID business. He has been insinuating that COVID came from Wuhan institute of Virology rather than the wet market and that China must ‘pay’. If it was a middle eastern country he would have declared war by now.
What options does he have to get China to pay ? Is it by putting sky high tariffs on Chinese products. That is complicated because that would raise prices for the US consumer too which is not advisable in this recession type economy. We are just too addicted to cheap Chinese imports. The other option is to default on the debt we owe to China. Then our federal treasury securities would lose their rating and China and other countries would stop exports to USA. The dollar may lose its status as the world’s reserve currency and we would have to pay for all our imports with gold.

 

[vector2]

. The other option is to default on the debt we owe to China.

I feel like people aren't really understanding the true implications of this "option," because the US defaulting on its sovereign debt essentially....how can I put this charitably........breaks the goddamned world.


People think the value of the total stock market is impressive, but the value of the world's total bond market is $100 trillion, of which the US makes up 40 percent of that. The money supply, and therefore all debt (foreign or domestic, corporate or municipal or personal) one way or another is ultimately based on the ironclad security assured by the US treasury. A non-technical default on this debt is probably one of the few things that would prove the survivalists' instinct to build bunkers and horde food somewhat correct.

 

[Mman]

You made an assertion. I disproved your assertion. Then you go to a different tangent to say I can't time the market, then try to backtrack on your original assertion by trying to redefine what Expected Value means. Feels like you're grasping at straws dude. The fact of the matters is at the time frame outlined (2000-2003, 2008, 2018, and 2020), it is +EV to be in all cash.

The fact that I can't "time the market" is a very different assertion than "it's never+EV to be in all cash". Your assertion was wrong. It is sometimes +EV to be in all cash. Can you cough up to that?

And as far as not being able to time the market. I, unlike you, do know my limits. I have claimed may times I cannot time the market. see quotes below:

I think you fundamentally misunderstand what I am saying. "Expected" implies looking into the future. You can't say something was "+EV" in 2000 by looking back in 2020 at the period from 2000-2003. You can say that in hindsight it would have been a good idea. But actually it wouldn't. You could have been in treasuries at like 6-7% return in 2000 instead of cash.

Going to 100% cash by definition means you are trying to time the market, because you chose a time to get out of the market and have to choose a time to get back in. I mean if you think that isn't timing the market, you are making up your own definitions of the term.

I don't know what to tell you. The entirety of academic financial research disagrees with you.

As for "knowing my limits", I have posted here literally hundreds of times that none of us should have any bit of caring about what the market is going to do in the short term. If someone ever asks you if the market is going up or down in the next 6 months, your answer should be "I don't know and I don't care". All I know is that even if you are as pessimistic as can be about future stock returns, having 0% allocation to equities has never been a good idea. We literally have posts on this forum from 2011 talking about how now is the time to be out of stocks and the crash is coming.

 

[dchz]

I think you fundamentally misunderstand what I am saying. "Expected" implies looking into the future. You can't say something was "+EV" in 2000 by looking back in 2020 at the period from 2000-2003. You can say that in hindsight it would have been a good idea. But actually it wouldn't. You could have been in treasuries at like 6-7% return in 2000 instead of cash.

Going to 100% cash by definition means you are trying to time the market, because you chose a time to get out of the market and have to choose a time to get back in. I mean if you think that isn't timing the market, you are making up your own definitions of the term.

I don't know what to tell you. The entirety of academic financial research disagrees with you.

As for "knowing my limits", I have posted here literally hundreds of times that none of us should have any bit of caring about what the market is going to do in the short term. If someone ever asks you if the market is going up or down in the next 6 months, your answer should be "I don't know and I don't care". All I know is that even if you are as pessimistic as can be about future stock returns, having 0% allocation to equities has never been a good idea. We literally have posts on this forum from 2011 talking about how now is the time to be out of stocks and the crash is coming.

You can redefine the word "Expected Value" to fit your definition however you like. We would just have to agree to disagree.

It is +EV to be in all cash right now. I am trying to time the market.

 

[BLADEMDA]

You can redefine the word "Expected Value" to fit your definition however you like. We would just have to agree to disagree.

It is +EV to be in all cash right now. I am trying to time the market.

As the market retraces below 2650 you should consider moving into equities. The odds we go below an S and P 500 of 2500 are fairly low. So, if you want to time the market that means to begin buying equities at some point either on the way down or the way up. I find it much easier to purchase equities as the market retests support levels.

As for me, I will be a buyer at 2600 and again at 2500. Those were the levels I purchased equities in March. I would be happy to get another shot at buying more around 2550.

 

[Kierkegaard's Bud]

As the market retraces below 2650 you should consider moving into equities. The odds we go below an S and P 500 of 2500 are fairly low. So, if you want to time the market that means to begin buying equities at some point either on the way down or the way up. I find it much easier to purchase equities as the market retests support levels.

As for me, I will be a buyer at 2600 and again at 2500. Those were the levels I purchased equities in March. I would be happy to get another shot at buying more around 2550.

Most of the financial reports for SP companies I have read for Q2 suggest that they have not entirely felt the full extent of CoVid in their earnings yet. This is more accurate for some companies than others ofc but I think sub-2500 is very realistic. Also, BRK’s 137 billion cash pile MIGHT be helping my case if you read their reports.

 

[anbuitachi]

I am concerned that Trump is going to come after China in order to deflect attention from his shambolic handling of this COVID business. He has been insinuating that COVID came from Wuhan institute of Virology rather than the wet market and that China must ‘pay’. If it was a middle eastern country he would have declared war by now.
What options does he have to get China to pay ? Is it by putting sky high tariffs on Chinese products. That is complicated because that would raise prices for the US consumer too which is not advisable in this recession type economy. We are just too addicted to cheap Chinese imports. The other option is to default on the debt we owe to China. Then our federal treasury securities would lose their rating and China and other countries would stop exports to USA. The dollar may lose its status as the world’s reserve currency and we would have to pay for all our imports with gold.

our options are limited. IMO only way for us is to work towards less reliance on China, which was a stupid move to begin with.
There is a lot of work to be done but question is if US will be willing to make those tough choices against China because they will probably get a lot of pressure from corporations and lobbyist since it will hurt corporation financials

 

[Mman]

You can redefine the word "Expected Value" to fit your definition however you like. We would just have to agree to disagree.

I am using the financial and statistical definition of the term.

The expected value (EV) is an anticipated value for an investment at some point in the future. In statistics and probability analysis, the expected value is calculated by multiplying each of the possible outcomes by the likelihood each outcome will occur and then summing all of those values.


If you would like to redefine that term as well, please start your own financial dictionary.

 

[dchz]

I don't say never lightly. And the most +EV play has never been all cash and likely never will be.

I am using the financial and statistical definition of the term.

The expected value (EV) is an anticipated value for an investment at some point in the future. In statistics and probability analysis, the expected value is calculated by multiplying each of the possible outcomes by the likelihood each outcome will occur and then summing all of those values.


If you would like to redefine that term as well, please start your own financial dictionary.

"The highest anticipated value for an investment at some point in the future play has never been all cash and likely never will be."

I disagree... it's not my mission to convince you otherwise. I'm gonna stop replying on this topic.

 

[Mman]

"The highest anticipated value for an investment at some point in the future play has never been all cash and likely never will be."

I disagree... it's not my mission to convince you otherwise. I'm gonna stop replying on this topic.

you don't have to convince me, you have to convince the entirety of academic research in the field. And yes, it's OK if you wish to stop responding. I just find most physicians have relatively little financial literacy and it is important to highlight things that are terrible ideas for the average doc or student reading through a thread. I'm obviously not here to stop you from putting all your net worth in small bills under a mattress if that is what you desire.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Most of the financial reports for SP companies I have read for Q2 suggest that they have not entirely felt the full extent of CoVid in their earnings yet. This is more accurate for some companies than others ofc but I think sub-2500 is very realistic. Also, BRK’s 137 billion cash pile MIGHT be helping my case if you read their reports.

All I can say is that if you buy equities at 2600 the long term reward over 36 months looks quite good. IMHO of a few decades, it won't matter much if you buy in at 2450 or 2600. But, what does matter is that you DO BUY IN at a nice discount from the recent high of 2950. The odds favor the house in that you won't buy in at the lows and miss your opportunity to get back in or buy in cheaply. In this fast paced environment where 2 days have the market movement of 2 weeks (compared to late 2008) you need to have your strategy in place.

This summer should be quite interesting in terms of the stock market. Will Covid 19 disappear until the late Fall? Will a Vaccine be announced for late 2020? Will Regeneron come through on its "silver bullet" to destroy Covid 19? All those things will influence the market more than the Q2 earnings.
Q2 will be a disaster and Q3 will not be as robust as some traders hope. But, a vaccine from Moderna, the U.K. or Germany will completely change market sentiment and restart the bull market.

I think we get back to an S and P of 3400 in 24 months. I will gladly take that level of return even if I buy in at 2550 vs 2300.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Based on technicals a retest to 2500 looks quite possible. For those that missed out on these huge gains from buying equities during this recent CRASH don't make the same mistake twice. If you get a second chance at 2500 take it.

 

[dchz]

you don't have to convince me, you have to convince the entirety of academic research in the field. And yes, it's OK if you wish to stop responding. I just find most physicians have relatively little financial literacy and it is important to highlight things that are terrible ideas for the average doc or student reading through a thread. I'm obviously not here to stop you from putting all your net worth in small bills under a mattress if that is what you desire.

This is my last response for the sake of getting a good public service announcement out there:

For the general population of physicians. Do not try to time the market. You will most likely end up behind than ahead, many stats/studies in history proved this.

I agree we should have a message to average doc or med student that trying to time the market is a foolish game.

However, this is a completely different assertion on whether the most +EV to be in cash. If chances of market going down is way greater than the chances of market going up, then it's way more +EV to be in cash. I don't know why @Mman can't get this through his head. Instead he's going back and forth about how I can't time the market and how EV is prospective rather than retrospective. At certain times in history, (e.g. right after 9/11, right after 2008) and right after a covid nationwide shut down, it is painfully obvious that cash is more +EV, prospectively. Even if you don't agree right now the stock market is going to go down. The still exists times where the EV of the stock market is lower than inflation. At that instance it's +EV to be in cash. You shouldn't time the market, but people have timed the market and won. If you can't see that then i'm pretty sure you're trolling. so i'm gonna stop feeding the troll.

 

[vector2]

This is my last response for the sake of getting a good public service announcement out there:

For the general population of physicians. Do not try to time the market. You will most likely end up behind than ahead, many stats/studies in history proved this.

I agree we should have a message to average doc or med student that trying to time the market is a foolish game.

However, this is a completely different assertion on whether the most +EV to be in cash. If chances of market going down is way greater than the chances of market going up, then it's way more +EV to be in cash. I don't know why @Mman can't get this through his head. Instead he's going back and forth about how I can't time the market and how EV is prospective rather than retrospective. At certain times in history, (e.g. right after 9/11, right after 2008) and right after a covid nationwide shut down, it is painfully obvious that cash is more +EV, prospectively. Even if you don't agree right now the stock market is going to go down. The still exists times where the EV of the stock market is lower than inflation. At that instance it's +EV to be in cash. You shouldn't time the market, but people have timed the market and won. If you can't see that then i'm pretty sure you're trolling. so i'm gonna stop feeding the troll.

Yes, we understand both of you. With "perfect knowledge" (i.e. insider trading, very solid fundamental research on how few widgets a company is selling, or other such examples) you are theoretically correct that there are situations where it is +EV to be all cash. Mman's assertion is that it is essentially impossible for the average physician (who is not also a criminal inside trader or an institutional trader with a full staff and complex algorithms and market research dept) to get anywhere in the ballpark of having perfect (or even really good) knowledge, and thus going all cash is 99.9999% of the time a fools errand for anyone with a long-term investing horizon in the US market.

 

[anbuitachi]

dotn time market is a very general advice.
timing the market is like riskier gambling. higher risk with POTENTIAL for higher reward. it depends on what you want. some people want the long time low risk higher chance of gains. others want to get 'rich' quicker and dont want to go to a casino

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

I feel like people aren't really understanding the true implications of this "option," because the US defaulting on its sovereign debt essentially....how can I put this charitably........breaks the goddamned world.


People think the value of the total stock market is impressive, but the value of the world's total bond market is $100 trillion, of which the US makes up 40 percent of that. The money supply, and therefore all debt (foreign or domestic, corporate or municipal or personal) one way or another is ultimately based on the ironclad security assured by the US treasury. A non-technical default on this debt is probably one of the few things that would prove the survivalists' instinct to build bunkers and horde food somewhat correct.

This would not technically be a default. It would be a fine or penalty determined by the damage done by China, and then deducted from what we owe.

As far as the debt in general, it will basically be defaulted. If you think it's being paid back in full in today's dollar value I have some great swamp land for you. Increasingly larger amounts will be borrowed to finance new deficits and as old debt comes due (ie, ponzi), and as low cost debt becomes increasingly more difficult to find the printing presses will crank it out watering down currency. It's happening regardless of whether people realize it.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

But i believe its impossible to predict at all with the Fed's actions. They are artificially propping up the market. We dont know how long can this continue for. They injected like 10 Trillion dollars which is why stocks are almost back to pre corona levels. If they inject another 10T next month, we may see new highs. This will hurt younger people 10-20 years later, but with the current crisis its completely unpredictable.

Agree completely. It's criminal what's going on. What would be an easy prediction to make that the market would be smashed and for a long time is now ridiculously propped up. And the theft of currency value at a scale that grandiose won't take 10-20 years to be felt.

 

[dannyboy1]

This would not technically be a default. It would be a fine or penalty determined by the damage done by China, and then deducted from what we owe.

As far as the debt in general, it will basically be defaulted. If you think it's being paid back in full in today's dollar value I have some great swamp land for you. Increasingly larger amounts will be borrowed to finance new deficits and as old debt comes due (ie, ponzi), and as low cost debt becomes increasingly more difficult to find the printing presses will crank it out watering down currency. It's happening regardless of whether people realize it.

Yup. The system is not built to last. Then again neither are human beings. I just hope to live a long and prosperous life before we run out of road to kick the can down.....

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Short of a vaccine or some miracle treatment, the main thing that will get the coronavirus under long-term control is a different administration.

Short of a vaccine or miracle treatment the virus is running its course. In other words, the deaths, you can pay me now or pay me later. The curve won't be flattened out of existence. That never was the goal, though it appears the media and other leaders believe it is.

The more studies I continually see that show this virus has already spread far greater than we realize, the more I realize the greater damage we can control is economic and societal damage. Keep the virus under healthcare capacity, which has not been exceedingly difficult, and other than that limit the economic and societal damage which has been enormous.

Or as the WHO is saying, Sweden is providing the model.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

This is my last response for the sake of getting a good public service announcement out there:

For the general population of physicians. Do not try to time the market. You will most likely end up behind than ahead, many stats/studies in history proved this.

I agree we should have a message to average doc or med student that trying to time the market is a foolish game.

However, this is a completely different assertion on whether the most +EV to be in cash. If chances of market going down is way greater than the chances of market going up, then it's way more +EV to be in cash. I don't know why @Mman can't get this through his head. Instead he's going back and forth about how I can't time the market and how EV is prospective rather than retrospective. At certain times in history, (e.g. right after 9/11, right after 2008) and right after a covid nationwide shut down, it is painfully obvious that cash is more +EV, prospectively. Even if you don't agree right now the stock market is going to go down. The still exists times where the EV of the stock market is lower than inflation. At that instance it's +EV to be in cash. You shouldn't time the market, but people have timed the market and won. If you can't see that then i'm pretty sure you're trolling. so i'm gonna stop feeding the troll.

You could add the dot com collapse to your list. There was no way that worthless bubble was going to be reinflated.

 

[vector2]

This would not technically be a default. It would be a fine or penalty determined by the damage done by China, and then deducted from what we owe.

You are 100% wrong. If someone buys a US T-bill or note or bond and the US fails to 1) Pay interest on the security, or 2) Return the principal to the security holder, then that, by definition, is a default. There is no fine print in our normally issued sovereign debt that says "You will only get paid back if..."


We can punish China economically in other ways (albeit most of these ways are part of a zero sum game that end up hurting us too), but defaulting on the US debt that they hold is not one of them.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

This is a pretty scary thread. An excerpt:

“But if you are hearing our curve has flattened, it’s likely not true.

Don’t get me wrong— if you look across the country from April 25 to May 1, new cases have dropped from 34875 to 32379. The sounds flat to down right?
But that’s misleading. If you’re in NY; the numbers are way down. If you don’t it’s a different story.

To see what’s going on, pretend like NY is its own country and look at the rest of the country.
If you look at the country minus NY, from April 25 to May 1, cases have GROWN from 24322 to 28437. So outside of NY, positive cases are increasing by 17%/week.

EVEN IF CASE GROWTH DOESN’T GO UP, that would put us over 50,000 new cases every day outside of NY by Memorial Day.
This difference isn’t a result of testing. During that time, testing has gone up by 30% in NY vs 12% in the rest of the country.
When you take out NY, pay attention to your trends. Below are cases, hospitalizations, and death rates in NY and the rest of the country is not flattening out.”

"The virus has gone nowhere. It is waiting us out."

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 2: Welcome to 30 days of bliss. The type of bliss that often comes from ignorance. 1/ Many of the politicians in the countr…

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 2: Welcome to 30 days of bliss. The type of bliss that often comes from ignorance. 1/ Many of the politin the country believe it would not be possible to keep strict social distancing rules in May. They feel pressure…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Mman]

Yes, we understand both of you. With "perfect knowledge" (i.e. insider trading, very solid fundamental research on how few widgets a company is selling, or other such examples) you are theoretically correct that there are situations where it is +EV to be all cash. Mman's assertion is that it is essentially impossible for the average physician (who is not also a criminal inside trader or an institutional trader with a full staff and complex algorithms and market research dept) to get anywhere in the ballpark of having perfect (or even really good) knowledge, and thus going all cash is 99.9999% of the time a fools errand for anyone with a long-term investing horizon in the US market.

Correct, if we had perfect insider knowledge and knew the future, then going to all cash would be a great idea at times.

The problem is we don't. Even the best financial professionals don't. They don't go all cash. They might reduce holdings or what not, but the smartest are never completely out of the market (and even the few that do don't plant it all in cash).

I also like the analogy by @dchz to September 11th. The market was closed for a week after 9/11 so you couldn't sell stocks if you wanted to. When it reopened it briefly tanked for 3 days before going on a multi month run gaining almost 25% before the end of the year. So even Captain Hindsight that said obviously we knew at the time to go all cash on that day would have been correct for a grand total of 3 days the rest of the year. Did that smart person that knew to go all cash at the time on Sept 17th when the market reopened also know to go back to 100% equities on Sept 20th?


The correct answer is that none of us know what the market will do in the short term. And even if we have strong suspicions what it will do we should never be so foolish as to liquidate everything and go to cash. For one thing the tax consequences can be horrible. The other is that the reason you KNEW to sell everything will still be around long after the bottom of the market is reached and you will miss a large run up and then have buyers remorse and never be able to get back in at a good time.

I'm not a perfect boglehead. I buy and sell individual securities. But the idea that any of us can KNOW what is going to happen in the near term is just laughable.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Correct, if we had perfect insider knowledge and knew the future, then going to all cash would be a great idea at times.

The problem is we don't. Even the best financial professionals don't. They don't go all cash. They might reduce holdings or what not, but the smartest are never completely out of the market (and even the few that do don't plant it all in cash).

I also like the analogy by @dchz to September 11th. The market was closed for a week after 9/11 so you couldn't sell stocks if you wanted to. When it reopened it briefly tanked for 3 days before going on a multi month run gaining almost 25% before the end of the year. So even Captain Hindsight that said obviously we knew at the time to go all cash on that day would have been correct for a grand total of 3 days the rest of the year. Did that smart person that knew to go all cash at the time on Sept 17th when the market reopened also know to go back to 100% equities on Sept 20th?


The correct answer is that none of us know what the market will do in the short term. And even if we have strong suspicions what it will do we should never be so foolish as to liquidate everything and go to cash. For one thing the tax consequences can be horrible. The other is that the reason you KNEW to sell everything will still be around long after the bottom of the market is reached and you will miss a large run up and then have buyers remorse and never be able to get back in at a good time.

I'm not a perfect boglehead. I buy and sell individual securities. But the idea that any of us can KNOW what is going to happen in the near term is just laughable.

But, having some cash on hand right now makes sense. P/E of the S and P 500 is probably 25-28. That is quite high especially since we are at least 2 quarters away from significant earnings growth. The market low of 2250 vs 2850. That's quite a run over 5 weeks. So, my guess based on unemployment, poor earnings, fear and technicals is that the S and P 500 drifts back down to 2550 over the new 1-5 weeks. If this occurs then you need cash to buy equities. If you have cash or new money on hand then selling isn't required; however, if you are 100% exposed to equities then selling 10-15% on Monday makes good sense to me. You can re-deploy that cash when those equities are cheaper in just a short time.

 

[deleted171991]

This is a pretty scary thread. An excerpt:

“But if you are hearing our curve has flattened, it’s likely not true.

Don’t get me wrong— if you look across the country from April 25 to May 1, new cases have dropped from 34875 to 32379. The sounds flat to down right?
But that’s misleading. If you’re in NY; the numbers are way down. If you don’t it’s a different story.

To see what’s going on, pretend like NY is its own country and look at the rest of the country.
If you look at the country minus NY, from April 25 to May 1, cases have GROWN from 24322 to 28437. So outside of NY, positive cases are increasing by 17%/week.

EVEN IF CASE GROWTH DOESN’T GO UP, that would put us over 50,000 new cases every day outside of NY by Memorial Day.
This difference isn’t a result of testing. During that time, testing has gone up by 30% in NY vs 12% in the rest of the country.
When you take out NY, pay attention to your trends. Below are cases, hospitalizations, and death rates in NY and the rest of the country is not flattening out.”

"The virus has gone nowhere. It is waiting us out."

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 2: Welcome to 30 days of bliss. The type of bliss that often comes from ignorance. 1/ Many of the politicians in the countr…

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 2: Welcome to 30 days of bliss. The type of bliss that often comes from ignorance. 1/ Many of the politin the country believe it would not be possible to keep strict social distancing rules in May. They feel pressure…

threadreaderapp.com

We have the most monumentally stupid government I have experienced in my entire life (both in DC and in many states). And, boy, have I seen my share of *****s and arseholes.

No foreign enemy could have done this amount of damage. And I have a feeling that we ain't seen nothing yet.

 

[deleted875186]

This is a serious question, not trying to be snarky. Can anyone elaborate on what happened to the other Corona virus SARS? We did nothing to flatten the curve or clean out all of the TP from Costco when it emerged.. But seriously, is it gone? Is it an epidemic elsewhere or re emerge in the fall of 2009? We didnt seem to worry about it for 10 yrs. I'm not sure we will see a big re emergence this fall despite what the frequently wrong experts tell us. Remember, Fauci, is head of Allergy and Infectious Disease, sponsoring Remdisivir studies. A little help here please.

SARS was contained, I don’t think there have been any confirmed cases since the outbreak many years ago.

MEHRs still has cases. As someone stated above, highly lethal diseases are easier tk contain with infection control meausres. The other important piece is if there is another species reservoir and if the virus has continued spillover to humans. MEHRs is still present in camels, and continues to spill over tk humans causing cases. As far as we know, there has not been another spillover from whatever species (likely bats) that SARS came from.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

We have the most monumentally stupid government I have experienced in my entire life (both in DC and in many states). And, boy, have I seen my share of *****s and arseholes.

No foreign enemy could have done this amount of damage. And I have a feeling that we ain't seen nothing yet.

 

[Kierkegaard's Bud]

You are 100% wrong. If someone buys a US T-bill or note or bond and the US fails to 1) Pay interest on the security, or 2) Return the principal to the security holder, then that, by definition, is a default. There is no fine print in our normally issued sovereign debt that says "You will only get paid back if..."


We can punish China economically in other ways (albeit most of these ways are part of a zero sum game that end up hurting us too), but defaulting on the US debt that they hold is not one of them.

If the US defaults, Americans are going to take the hit first, most of the US debt is held by Americans for economic and security issues. Also, an additional notion that shouldn't be overlooked IMO is US Treasury has a big name in investment for its low risk, you can't tamper with that over bs.

 

[Mman]

But, having some cash on hand right now makes sense. P/E of the S and P 500 is probably 25-28. That is quite high especially since we are at least 2 quarters away from significant earnings growth. The market low of 2250 vs 2850. That's quite a run over 5 weeks. So, my guess based on unemployment, poor earnings, fear and technicals is that the S and P 500 drifts back down to 2550 over the new 1-5 weeks. If this occurs then you need cash to buy equities. If you have cash or new money on hand then selling isn't required; however, if you are 100% exposed to equities then selling 10-15% on Monday makes good sense to me. You can re-deploy that cash when those equities are cheaper in just a short time.

of course having some cash on hand is important and makes sense. I would never suggest a 100% allocation to equities. Ben Graham said you should probably always be between 25% and 75% equities, never less than 25% nor more than 75%. I think the highest allocation I would ever recommend would be about 80% and personally it's hard to ever see anybody below 40-50% equities.

Too little equity exposure is giving up expected returns long term. Too much exposure is just unneeded risk.

 

[vector2]

The following truly makes you realize how desperate our country is for real leadership

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

You are 100% wrong. If someone buys a US T-bill or note or bond and the US fails to 1) Pay interest on the security, or 2) Return the principal to the security holder, then that, by definition, is a default. There is no fine print in our normally issued sovereign debt that says "You will only get paid back if..."

Nope. If the courts were to fine China 500 billion (to pick a number out of the sky) and they didn't pay, placing a lien and seizing this portion of their US bonds is not the same as a default. Not saying it wouldn't be a huge deal, but it wouldn't be a default. Point is moot because this country doesn't have the stones to fine China anyway.

 

[vector2]

Nope. If the courts were to fine China 500 billion (to pick a number out of the sky) and they didn't pay, placing a lien and seizing this portion of their US bonds is not the same as a default. Not saying it wouldn't be a huge deal, but it wouldn't be a default. Point is moot because this country doesn't have the stones to fine China anyway.

Nope, it's still a default. Gotta say tho, I'm not entirely shocked to discover that your zero hedge fantasies extend to international law as well as monetary policy. Are you not aware that our courts have no real jurisdiction to impose a fine or lien on another sovereign country? That matters of trade and finance are disputed in arbitration using bodies like the WTO, IMF, a treaty, or by other means of international adjudication? That even if your theoretical fantasy court said "CHINA IS GUILTY!!!" and we reneged on our debt that it would still crash the global economy? Grow up, dude.

 

[deleted171991]

This is how a president leads.

His message feels like coming from an alternate Universe. And it's been only 4 years...

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

Complete utter insanity. 3 trillion dollars to be borrowed this quarter alone; about nine thousand dollars every single American is on the hook for, this quarter alone.

We have such an economic illiterate society that most shrug that off with a pompous smugness like, Well I care about lives more than a few extra dollars in my 401k... Complete utter insanity.

Even if we did absolutely nothing (not advocating that) the virus would not break America. Insane economic responses like this will.

US Treasury seeks to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter

Massive stimulus to support the U.S. economy through the coronavirus crisis will cause the Treasury to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter.

www.cnbc.com

 

[deleted171991]

What's the English word for a collection of *****s? Floridians?

Five days after reopening, South Beach park closes as crowds defy face mask order

"In the five days that parks have been reopened in Miami Beach, park rangers have issued 8,880 verbal warnings to parkgoers not wearing facial coverings, according to Miami Beach Police."

 

[vector2]

What's the English word for a collection of *****s? Floridians?

Five days after reopening, South Beach park closes as crowds defy face mask order

"In the five days that parks have been reopened in Miami Beach, park rangers have issued 8,880 verbal warnings to parkgoers not wearing facial coverings, according to Miami Beach Police."

 

[BLADEMDA]

As the incidence rises we are all highly likely to be exposed to an asymptomatic Covid + patient. I hope you are all preparing for this eventuality by wearing a N95 mask or P100 Respirator for every case that you do. Be safe out there.


The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates nearly 135,000 coronavirus deaths in the US through the beginning of August, citing the easing of lockdown orders as the main driver of the new number, Reuters reports.

The forecast from the IHME puts the U.S. death toll through early August at 134,475, the midrange between 95,092 and 242,890.

The new projections reflect reopening measures underway across the country and the increase of social contact between people that will increase transmission, the IHME said, according to Reuters.

“This new model is the basis for the sobering new estimate of U.S. deaths,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said about the reopening measures, Reuters reported. —Chris Eudaily

 

[Ezekiel2517]

Good thread from a smart person. “In sum, we want to safely re-open the economy.

Following excess deaths is the least "political" way to do this.

You can't fudge it.

More people died. Or they didn't.

Currently, and please hear this, SO MANY MORE THAN EVER BEFORE ARE DYING.”

Thread by @jeremyfaust: There’s one metric that can help us know when it is safe to re-open. This evening, @CarlosdelRio7 and I propose what that is in The @Washing…

Thread by @jeremyfaust: There’s one metric that can help us know when it is safe to re-open. This evening, @CarlosdelRio7 and I propose what thatis in The @WashingtonPost. It is tracking all deaths of ALL CAUSES. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Thread... First…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Ezekiel2517]

Another one, discussing the updated death toll estimates:

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 4: We’ve been lied to about the potential death toll in this country & it matters. 1/ The warping of the conversation a…

Thread by @ASlavitt: COVID Update May 4: We’ve been lied to about the potential death toll in this country & it matters. 1/ The warping oonversation about death tolls is problematic. People who warn of dire consequences get labeled fear mongers or wo…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Ezekiel2517]

The WHO's Dr. Mike Ryan's words from way back in early March. We've basically done the exact opposite of what he advised.

"The lessons I've learned from so many Ebola outbreaks in my career are: Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover. The virus will always get you if you don't move quickly...

Anyone involved in emergency response will know this: If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good, when it comes to emergency management. Speed trumps perfection. And the problem in society we have at the moment is everybody is afraid of making a mistake. Everyone is afraid of the consequence of error. But the greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. That's the single biggest lesson I've learned."

 

[deleted697127]

The WHO's Dr. Mike Ryan's words from way back in early March. We've basically done the exact opposite of what he advised.

"The lessons I've learned from so many Ebola outbreaks in my career are: Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover. The virus will always get you if you don't move quickly...

Anyone involved in emergency response will know this: If you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good, when it comes to emergency management. Speed trumps perfection. And the problem in society we have at the moment is everybody is afraid of making a mistake. Everyone is afraid of the consequence of error. But the greatest error is not to move. The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. That's the single biggest lesson I've learned."

I mean I’m sure he had specific ideas, but you could literally switch the word virus with Murder hornets or UFOs and the gist of his generic hyperbole would be just as relevant/useless.

 

[We'llBeDoneIn15Minutes]

"Strict lockdowns only serve to flatten the curve, and flattening the curve doesn’t mean that cases disappear — they are just moved in time.” He added: “And as long as the health-care system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it’s not clear that having the cases later in time is better.”

I wish our media spent more time educating the public about that extremely key point instead of the usual fear and politics. We should all be thankful Sweden did the experiment. They got it right. The economic and societal damage from strict wide spread panic driven indefinite lockdown is catastrophic.

#teamsweden

Sweden Bucked Conventional Wisdom, and Other Countries Are Following | National Review

No lockdown, no shuttered businesses or elementary schools, no stay-at-home. And no disaster, either.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[Ezekiel2517]

I mean I’m sure he had specific ideas, but you could literally switch the word virus with Murder hornets or UFOs and the gist of his generic hyperbole would be just as relevant/useless.

Yes, I apologize. Unfortunately I'm unable to fit all of his countless press conferences/lectures/speeches and volumes of publications into a post on this forum. Maybe you can ask someone else to spoon feed it to you like a toddler requires.

 

[Ezekiel2517]

"A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.
The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

Read and Share Twitter Threads easily!

Thread Reader helps you read and share the best of Twitter Threads

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Mman]

"Strict lockdowns only serve to flatten the curve, and flattening the curve doesn’t mean that cases disappear — they are just moved in time.” He added: “And as long as the health-care system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it’s not clear that having the cases later in time is better.”

I wish our media spent more time educating the public about that extremely key point instead of the usual fear and politics. We should all be thankful Sweden did the experiment. They got it right. The economic and societal damage from strict wide spread panic driven indefinite lockdown is catastrophic.

#teamsweden

Sweden Bucked Conventional Wisdom, and Other Countries Are Following | National Review

No lockdown, no shuttered businesses or elementary schools, no stay-at-home. And no disaster, either.

www.nationalreview.com

if we develop a vaccine or develop better treatment options, it is definitely better to have infections pushed off to a later date. That's how it works. Also better to keep health systems from overflowing. My hospital is doing fine right now, but if we had not had severe social distancing and cancelling of surgeries for weeks we would definitely be overwhelmed. I mean we have entire units of COVID patients right now when normally we run at about 95-98% occupancy in a pre-covid world.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

if we develop a vaccine or develop better treatment options, it is definitely better to have infections pushed off to a later date. That's how it works. Also better to keep health systems from overflowing. My hospital is doing fine right now, but if we had not had severe social distancing and cancelling of surgeries for weeks we would definitely be overwhelmed. I mean we have entire units of COVID patients right now when normally we run at about 95-98% occupancy in a pre-covid world.

The problem with that is we don't know how long a vaccine will take. It could easily be another year, or maybe even never.

Don't get me wrong, I think the initial lock down was absolutely a good idea. But we can't stay locked down forever. My state is currently running 55% occupancy right now. My 1200 bed hospital system has 14 COVID patients right now. This is absolutely the time to do some gradual re-opening. If it turns out to go poorly, better now than in the middle of flu season when occupancy will be much higher.

 

[Mman]

The problem with that is we don't know how long a vaccine will take. It could easily be another year, or maybe even never.

Don't get me wrong, I think the initial lock down was absolutely a good idea. But we can't stay locked down forever. My state is currently running 55% occupancy right now. My 1200 bed hospital system has 14 COVID patients right now. This is absolutely the time to do some gradual re-opening. If it turns out to go poorly, better now than in the middle of flu season when occupancy will be much higher.

Nobody said we know how long it will take to get a vaccine.

And nobody said we should "stay locked down forever". Each locality should be evaluated independently to gradually ease restrictions. But those that do need to prepare to ramp them back up if cases spike.

 

[deleted171991]

Good thread from a smart person. “In sum, we want to safely re-open the economy.

Following excess deaths is the least "political" way to do this.

You can't fudge it.

More people died. Or they didn't.

Currently, and please hear this, SO MANY MORE THAN EVER BEFORE ARE DYING.”

Thread by @jeremyfaust: There’s one metric that can help us know when it is safe to re-open. This evening, @CarlosdelRio7 and I propose what that is in The @Washing…

Thread by @jeremyfaust: There’s one metric that can help us know when it is safe to re-open. This evening, @CarlosdelRio7 and I propose what thatis in The @WashingtonPost. It is tracking all deaths of ALL CAUSES. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… Thread... First…

threadreaderapp.com

It beats me why it's so hard to just take the deaths number, deduct the number from the exact same period last year, and voila, there's the Covid effect (plus/minus a few percent). That's the real number I want to see, the deaths delta. There is no reason to have one, except for Covid.