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You are right. It would not be a good idea to predict Covid 19 behavior on SARS 1, nor should we relax our measures to to pre SARS levels. I was just asking the question what happened to the other Corona viruses? There was no new normal with them. I have heard the gov in our state wants to keep schools closed until 2021 and extend social distancing into 2022. I'm not sure why we are talking about a new normal now. Guess I'm getting a little fed up with the shelter in place stuff. I cant help but think there is some secondary gain in all of these orders. I understand Fauci is on the board at Galead and the institute of allergy and infectious disease, which he heads, is doing the big study on Remdesivir. Might explain why he so adamantly criticized HCQ so early on, when only preliminary data was coming in. I gotta quit watching the news.
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It's pretty simple. Viruses that strike hard like SARS 1, MERS, Ebola have some unique characteristics: 1. The infected are usually symptomatic when they are contagious so they're easier to isolate and quarantine. 2. These viruses incapacitate or kill the infected pretty quickly.
Both of those things help to significantly limit the spread and essentially these kind of viruses will just burn themselves out.
SARS-2 on the other hand is very insidious. It has a long incubation period, and the devastating part is that there can be an R value >1 (or even 2) during the period where the infected are asymptomatic. The long asymptomatic incubation / contagion period combined with the fact that the virus has a somewhat lower mortality than SARS significantly increases the likelihood that it could become endemic, similar to flu.
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Thank you! I had not seen it explained in those terms anywhere. It makes more sense now.
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He has a historyI hope these are the header pictures in future US history textbook chapters about COVID-19. Sums up our federal response and attitude pretty well
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To date, 1 out of every 400 ppl in NYC has died. Mind-boggling. Even with NY's continued descent in cases and deaths, the daily deaths today in the US will be >2000 and new cases > 30,000. What this tells you is that while some states have decreasing cases, many states are on the upswing.
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This seems like an awful high death rate. Nyc has 18.8 million residents. 1 in 400 is .0025. Multiply by 18.8 million, you get 47,000. To date, 13,000 deaths from covid in nyc. I think your math is off. 13,000 is a lot in anybody's book
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Hold up, you think the population of NYC is almost 19 million? Lol. It's around 8 million dude. Also, that death count is underestimated compared to the most updated figures I have seen
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Not only does Germany have Merkel, a scientist, leading them, they also have a "Covid Czar" who happens to be the world's best expert on coronaviruses. Says a lot about why they are where they currently are and why the US is where it's at. Incompetence has a price.
"Drosten now addresses hundreds of thousands of anxious Germans. Twice a week around 10 a.m., he sets a blue microphone on his desk, puts on headphones, and waits for a science journalist from German radio station NDR Info to call him. For the next 40 minutes, he answers questions about vaccines, respiratory droplets, school closures, or masks. The podcast, simply titled Coronavirus Update, has made Drosten the face, or rather the voice, of the pandemic in Germany. More than 1 million people regularly download what has become the country’s most popular podcast."
"Drosten also explains coronaviruses to politicians. He has advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel—they chatted by phone for about an hour recently, he says—and Minister of Health Jens Spahn. He has been called Germany’s “coronavirus-explainer-in-chief” and “the coronavirus pope,” the German equivalent of a “coronavirus czar.”
www.sciencemag.org
www.economist.com
"Drosten now addresses hundreds of thousands of anxious Germans. Twice a week around 10 a.m., he sets a blue microphone on his desk, puts on headphones, and waits for a science journalist from German radio station NDR Info to call him. For the next 40 minutes, he answers questions about vaccines, respiratory droplets, school closures, or masks. The podcast, simply titled Coronavirus Update, has made Drosten the face, or rather the voice, of the pandemic in Germany. More than 1 million people regularly download what has become the country’s most popular podcast."
"Drosten also explains coronaviruses to politicians. He has advised German Chancellor Angela Merkel—they chatted by phone for about an hour recently, he says—and Minister of Health Jens Spahn. He has been called Germany’s “coronavirus-explainer-in-chief” and “the coronavirus pope,” the German equivalent of a “coronavirus czar.”
Science | AAAS
Christian Drosten, Germany’s covid-19 explainer-in-chief
A virologist’s podcast helps Germans make sense of the pandemic
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it's the difference between within the city limits (a little more than 8M) and the metropolitan area (20M).
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Information on coronavirus
Agency service suspensions/reductions
Report a social distancing violation
MenuPromoting and Protecting the City's Health
▼Text-Size Search Promoting and Protecting the City's Health
COVID-19: Data
SelectCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)Symptoms, Chronic Health RisksPrevention and CareBusinesses and Other FacilitiesCoping and Emotional Well-beingDataPosters and FlyersInformation for Providers
- Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- Symptoms, Chronic Health Risks
- Prevention and Care
- Businesses and Other Facilities
- Coping and Emotional Well-being
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The data presented below reflect the most recent information collected about people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in NYC. We are discouraging people with mild to moderate symptoms from being tested at this time, so the data primarily represent people with more severe illness. All data included below are preliminary and subject to change.
Unless otherwise noted, all of the below information was collected by the NYC Health Department.
This page will be updated daily.
This page includes data visualizations. To view the data as CSV files, visit our Github repository.
Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths
Regarding the data on deaths provided below:
- Confirmed deaths: People who had a positive COVID-19 laboratory test.
- Probable deaths: People who did not have a positive COVID-19 laboratory test, but their death certificate lists as the cause of death "COVID-19" or an equivalent.
Deaths in NYC Reported by New York State: 12,774 (updated April 29)
Data Collection Differences
What figures have you seen? I googled population NYC and got 18.8 million for the metro area. Deaths in NYC are 12,774. Using your figures of 8 million population in NYC, and not the metro area, 1 in 400 deaths for a population of 8 million is 20,000. A far cry from the reported death rate. So how do you come up with 1 in 400 residents in NYC have died?
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Never say never, ever.
I'm not sure its that big of a deal either way. I went for the most +EV play.
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deleted87051
New York State has about 20mil population.
1 in 825 (23000/20mil)New York State residents have died of COVID in the last 2 months.
1 in 650 (13000/8.5mil) New York City residents have died of COVID in the last 2 months.
And it’s not done yet.
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deleted87051
Officials removing bodies from 'overwhelmed' Brooklyn funeral home
Officials were back at a Brooklyn funeral home Thursday, removing bodies that weren't properly cared for inside the home, a law enforcement official tells CNN.
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Agreed. It's not 1 in 400 as another poster claimed.
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The problem with the hard hit area of NYC is that a lot of their facilities are very old hence care decisions had to be made not BiPAP or CPAP.
I am asking you because I value your opinion, but also in answering the questions. It's easy to bring up the situational adjustments that must be made in cities of hospital from the 70s.
Well if anything I was not knee-jerk in my critical care, but we are still feeling out the elephant at the same time. I think low does heparin used to be somewhat questioned but now it's' universally accepted as Covid is an endothelial and hyper coagulation disease. Steroids have largely fallen and HCQ and Azithromycin have largely showed no benefit.
The ECMO numbers have been dismal as well.
The hardest struggle in caring for COVID in crisis care is that do you go all out for your pt or do you taper and protect your team to fight for another day. Its a ****ty situation and something to ponder about as the country reopens.
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I completely agree. People want to talk about frontline heroes, but I've seen ridiculous behavior from many physicians and nurses. Refusing to go into rooms. Not titrating medications appropriately.
I've tried my hardest not to do anything different, but I know I'm not blameless in all of this either. But I did my best to protect my nurses/RTs from having to go in every few minutes, I'd change their pumps for them when I was going in and I'd personally adjust all my own ventilators. At the same time, I know there were a few times were I just rode something out rather than gowning up.
With all that said though, I do remember the people who felt they were too precious to go into a patient room and instead pushed residents and nurses in there and they'll forever be tarnished in my eyes.
Not saying I have the right answers, but really a tough situation to see anybody in and it leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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It's pretty damn close if you are using the most updated figures. NYC has ~18,100 deaths, not 12,000. Jesus christ learn how to look up basic info. Population is 8.4 million (you were off by >10 million lol). And the true death count is significantly higher and cases+deaths are still ongoing so it won't be very long til we go higher than 1 in 400.
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NYC is likely not testing enough people to know the true incidence. The number of Covid + people could easily be 2 million based on the data. Is it 4 million? The bottom line is almost everyone living in or around NYC needs to be tested for Covid 19 and the antibody.
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Hard-hit New York, the first state to do its own antibody testing, found an estimated 13.9% prevalence rate statewide, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. The rate was even higher in New York City, at 21.2%.
The state randomly tested 3,000 people who were out shopping. Cuomo said the results may be high because they tested people who were out, not people who are isolating at home.
These early figures would lower the fatality to infection rate to .5%, Cuomo said. But he cautioned that the data is preliminary and that current fatality rates will go higher because they don't include at-home deaths.
www.medscape.com
Also in Boston, at one homeless shelter none of the 146 people who tested positive had any symptoms. Aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, 600 crewmembers have tested positive, but at least 350 of them are asymptomatic. In an Ohio prison that did widespread testing, 73% of inmates — more than 1,800 people — were confirmed to have the virus, many without symptoms.
The state randomly tested 3,000 people who were out shopping. Cuomo said the results may be high because they tested people who were out, not people who are isolating at home.
These early figures would lower the fatality to infection rate to .5%, Cuomo said. But he cautioned that the data is preliminary and that current fatality rates will go higher because they don't include at-home deaths.
Evidence Mounts for Greater COVID-19 Prevalence
Because a significant percentage of infected people don't show any symptoms, experts have known the real number of infections was likely to be higher than confirmed cases.
www.medscape.com
Also in Boston, at one homeless shelter none of the 146 people who tested positive had any symptoms. Aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, 600 crewmembers have tested positive, but at least 350 of them are asymptomatic. In an Ohio prison that did widespread testing, 73% of inmates — more than 1,800 people — were confirmed to have the virus, many without symptoms.
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Incorrect.
New York STATE has 18,000+ deaths.
New York CITY has 12,000+ deaths.
Apologize.
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I don't say never lightly. And the most +EV play has never been all cash and likely never will be.
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S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns (1927-2026)
Interactive chart showing the annual percentage change of the S&P 500 index back to 1927. Performance is calculated as the % change from the last trading day of each year from the last trading day of the previous year.
www.macrotrends.net
I don't know why doctors think they know everything about everything just because they have a medical degree. But clearly the EV of cash is - (inflation rate) and for any year that the S&P 500 is down more than the inflation rate the most +EV play is cash. Those years are 2000-2003, 2008, 2018, and 2020.
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The stats for NYC deaths I quoted were published by the state of New York. 1 in 400 deaths you quoted for a population of 8.4 million people comes to 21,000 deaths. Not pretty damn close to 18,100 as you suggest. As far as accepting advice from a deep thinker like yourself on how to research basic info, I think I'll take a pass. Have a nice day 🙂
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deleted171991
Beyond JHU, another easy way to look up the right numbers is... weather.com.
There is a new Covid-19 tab. If one enters the city or zip code, and one could get the correct numbers for the county and state, including the daily trend and the changes since last week. To me, it's easier and faster than the JHU site.
For example, New York County is at 304,372 cases and 18,321 deaths as of today, and it maaay be peaking.
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deleted171991
Because, beyond the different characteristics that vector2 mentioned, SARS was tracked and isolated like Ebola, as any epidemic should be.
This got out of control first in China, then it got out of control in the US, with this administration in denial for months.
Had we isolated and tracked every international traveler and contact, and had we looked at every pneumonia back in December-January, when we first heard about the epidemic, as if this were Ebola, we would have not needed the shutdown. We would have only isolated a few hundred thousand people at a time for 2 weeks. Still a lot to track and enforce, but incomparable.
We are at this point because we are a people of scientifically illiterates who elected scientifically illiterates as their leaders. What I tend to call *****s (regardless what side of the political spectrum they are on). Even the Pope seems to know more science than many Americans.
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deleted171991
There are some. Usually the smaller ones who learned from SARS. Taiwan, NZ etc.
We are definitely among the worst offenders, and it's absolutely expected, given the abysmal federal response.
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deleted171991
We are virtually an island nation, too. That's why we haven't had a foreign invader on our soil for about two centuries (which has helped us tremendously). We didn't get this from illegal immigrants. We could have done everything those countries did, if only we weren't in denial.
There are *****s who even now are against ANY degree of social isolation. How uneducated and/or dumb must one be to not understand what overwhelming the healthcare system would mean?
I am not saying tracking this down to the last contact would have been easy to do. But it's definitely impossible when the operation is run by incompetent dumb arses at the top.
And please don't point to other countries. Other countries don't spend billions and billions on intelligence operations like we do. WE should have known what was coming way before others. And it seems we did, it just didn't coincide with an illiterate president's "instincts".
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Up north, especially at peak times, we had whole floors on non invasives like CPAP/BIPAP/HF/Non rebreather. Seal sucked. None of them in neg pressure rooms. but what can you do? let all of them die? Tube ALL of them?
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i dont think we even stand a chance at predicting the market anymore (not that we were good at it in the past, but even worse now).
WIth the craziness in the economy, most of us would say market will dip. But i believe its impossible to predict at all with the Fed's actions. They are artificially propping up the market. We dont know how long can this continue for. They injected like 10 Trillion dollars which is why stocks are almost back to pre corona levels. If they inject another 10T next month, we may see new highs. This will hurt younger people 10-20 years later, but with the current crisis its completely unpredictable.
I saw a hedgefund manager make a good point. People have been feeding us this 'lie' that stock market will go up in the long run so its a 'safe/smart' investment, especially index fund. This gets more people into stock market which raises prices. At some point that may stop, and at some point, stocks may no longer be a great investment even in the LONG run.
Below is Japan's stock exchange. THIRD largest economy in the world. It peaked in 1980s, so if you placed it in stock 30 years ago, you wouldve LOST significant amount of money. So far we are seeing large increases in our stock market over the long run, similar to japans stock levels from 1965 to 1980s, but we dont know what it will be like after this, it could be similar to japans were we level off and go horizontally and not vertically.
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deleted171991
The problem with Japan was that the market got to crazy valuations, i.e. average P/E ratio in the neighborhood of 80-100.
Thank God, we haven't been even close to that. Still, that doesn't change the fact that one should not buy high and hope for higher (AKA Ponzi scheme), meaning that when a market is at average P/E ratios of 20-30 or higher, there may not be much long-term gain to obtain there.
In all the long-term studies, the low P/E group of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the high P/E group. One can't buy even KO at P/E of 40 and expect to make a lot of money on that; that's just basic finance (and growth limits).
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I would have tubed them all if HF/non-rebreather made their O2 sat below 88 and their O2 delivery made them uncomfortable clinically. But this takes a clinician that knows what they're doing and can intubate on a whim without needing to call a team 1 hour in advance. How many ICU has this kind of physician staffing them?
So you don't have that kind of physician covering your ICU, the smart thing is probably intubate them ALL. CPAP/BIPAP is great in theory but they are very difficult to keep on a patient when the nurse cannot enter the room every 5 mins. If you're making your nurse go in the room every 5 mins, you're not protecting your nurse. It's not the standard situation... people need to keep that in mind when the hospital is in crisis care mode, you can't expect everyone to perform at their top performance. You have to be very conscientious of how to keep thing simple and eliminate certain steps. A lot of the times the mistaken prevented from eliminating a step saves the patient more than 30 miracle drug trials.
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dont have enough vent to tube them all.
also i agree they are difficult to keep on a patient, but breathing tube in that situation wasnt that great of a choice either when the nurse cant enter the room every 5 min and cant even see the patient without opening the door. lot of self extubations
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where are you that you don't have enough vents to tube them all?
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i was referring to peak. in nyc, hospitals had hundreds of covid patients. many were tubed, many others were on non invasive. dont have hundreds of vents just waiting there . i dont know if you saw this NYT video interview with ED physician in nyc complaining they at one point they only had like 1 free vent left.. not too different in other NYC hospitals at peak
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S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns (1927-2026)
Interactive chart showing the annual percentage change of the S&P 500 index back to 1927. Performance is calculated as the % change from the last trading day of each year from the last trading day of the previous year.
I don't know why doctors think they know everything about everything just because they have a medical degree. But clearly the EV of cash is - (inflation rate) and for any year that the S&P 500 is down more than the inflation rate the most +EV play is cash. Those years are 2000-2003, 2008, 2018, and 2020.
Can I hold up a mirror for you?
Do you know what the "E" in "EV" means? Expected. Not historical. It's easy to point at a graph 20 years ago and say man I wish I was in all cash right before this crash. It's quite another thing to be right now, after a crash, pointing at it and saying you are all cash.
The statistics say basically nobody can successfully market time. What makes you think that YOU can do it? Using the 20/20 hindsight to find years the market declined in the past does not give you any special powers for predicting the future.
So to be clear, I find it ironic that you wonder why doctors think they know "everything about everything" while telling us why you know so much about market timing when the evidence says nobody can do that. My advice is based the soundest research (by professionals and academics, not by doctors) suggesting you should never be all cash. Hell, you should probably never be more than maybe 20% cash at most but I suppose if you were filling lucky you could go to 40% or even 50% cash but that is probably still a little crazy.
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Says the dude who was quoting a population of 19 million for NYC.
Btw, what is the point of your fixation on the precision of me stating 1 in 400 lol? That you have had to make 5 or 6 different pointless waste of time posts about it. The most fukn annoying kind of poster. Yah, I’m trying to mislead everyone by saying 1 in 400 as if 1 in 500 or 600 ppl is not impressive enough lol.
You do realize where the nyc numbers are headed right? Look at their death count from just a couple weeks ago. Many have not been counted yet who have died in their homes. Wait until where the final numbers end up and 1 in 400 will look like a joke.
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Death rate in US has now surpassed Europe.
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Quite an informative thread here.
“Welcome to May.
As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February.
That is a harsh assessment given how much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to tread water. Some stats:”
threadreaderapp.com
“Welcome to May.
As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February.
That is a harsh assessment given how much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to tread water. Some stats:”
Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk: Welcome to May. As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February. That is a harsh assessment given how much the c…
Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk: Welcome to May. As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February. That is a harsh asseshow much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to…
threadreaderapp.com
D
deleted171991
If we get out of this mess, it will be DESPITE (not because) of the federal government.Quite an informative thread here.
“Welcome to May.
As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February.
That is a harsh assessment given how much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to tread water. Some stats:”
Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk: Welcome to May. As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February. That is a harsh assessment given how much the c…
Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk: Welcome to May. As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February. That is a harsh asseshow much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to…
This pandemic has definitely made me appreciate the democratic governors much more. I voted republican in the last governor election.
Short of a vaccine or some miracle treatment, the main thing that will get the coronavirus under long-term control is a different administration.
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Is this not stock manipulation? Tesla dropped 10 percent from this tweet
Elon Musk just declared that he's selling almost all his physical belongings and 'will own no house' and that he thinks Tesla's stock price is 'too high'
Elon Musk just declared that he's selling almost all his physical belongings and 'will own no house' and that he thinks Tesla's stock price is 'too high'
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deleted171991
No, unless he (or his cronies) buy Tesla stock in the aftermath. He's right, btw.
I remember when Netflix crashed after a similar admission.
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You made an assertion. I disproved your assertion. Then you go to a different tangent to say I can't time the market, then try to backtrack on your original assertion by trying to redefine what Expected Value means. Feels like you're grasping at straws dude. The fact of the matters is at the time frame outlined (2000-2003, 2008, 2018, and 2020), it is +EV to be in all cash.
The fact that I can't "time the market" is a very different assertion than "it's never+EV to be in all cash". Your assertion was wrong. It is sometimes +EV to be in all cash. Can you cough up to that?
And as far as not being able to time the market. I, unlike you, do know my limits. I have claimed may times I cannot time the market. see quotes below:
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So 1 hospital in the bronx and columbia have split vents for 1 day before new vents arrived. We were worried, but ventilators was never a rate limiting step in any hospital in NYC area except for that instance I mentioned.
Vent availability is not currently factoring into any of our decisions here in NY in whether or not to intubate a patient. But if it was a constant constraint, i'd get what you're talking about.
D
deleted171991
IRS mistakenly sends stimulus checks to foreign workers
With no clear guidance on how to return it, foreign workers are holding onto the money or racing to spend it before the Internal Revenue Service realizes the mistake.
MAGA.
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You still never said how you divined the 1 in 400 number which you presented as a fact. I collegially pointed out that I thought that was too high. You could have said My Bad, and ok, we"re done. But you got snarky, and since I give as I get, I became that annoying poster. But I've wasted too much time on you already so I'm done with this topic.That said, I do agree with you in that you could be right if we just wait long enough. Just not on April 29th. Cheers!
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deleted87051
Any way you slice it April was a bad month. On March 31 there were about 5000 Americans dead from COVID. Despite fairly drastic measures, on April 30 there were about 64000 Americans dead. That’s 59000 in 30 days or almost 2000/day. Hopefully April was the peak and things will tail off.
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deleted171991
NIH abruptly cuts coronavirus research funding, alarming scientists
The funding went to understanding how coronaviruses jump from bats to humans.
arstechnica.com
And you guys think April was bad...
Do you know something I don't? Will better minds run the country in May?
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