The ultimate COVID thread

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Where is the dude on here saying he’s making millions shorting the market? Up 18% in 3 days...

The point is not that I’m some genius who can predict better than that guy - none of us can predict what will happen from day to day. The only difference between me and that guy is that I recognize my own inability to guess market outcomes in the short term.
 
okayplayer said:
Where is the dude on here saying he’s making millions shorting the market? Up 18% in 3 days...

The point is not that I’m some genius who can predict better than that guy - none of us can predict what will happen from day to day. The only difference between me and that guy is that I recognize my own inability to guess market outcomes in the short term.
Click to expand...
Anybody who can predict the market wouldn't waste his time in medicine. 😉
 
www.politico.com

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The government has broad legal authority to detain people in the name of public health. But politically and diplomatically, it’s more complicated.
www.politico.com www.politico.com

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OTCAwesome said:
Not sure why the hate, if you were DCA like a sheep that sucks. In volatile markets there is money to be made on other people's fears
Click to expand...

no hate. I’m envious. You have knowledge no one else does. Post your positions and $ amounts prior to market open and we will track in real time. If after 2 weeks you’re a soothsayer like you say you are then I’ll follow along and give you 5% of everything I make.
 
Mikkel said:
Probably the worst of it will be in New York, thanks to the "wonderful" leadership of Cuomo.
Click to expand...

I dont know what you are trying to get at. NYC is doing well given the circumstances and the leadership is much better than Trumps ranting. Things are **** in Louisiana too.
 
coffeebythelake said:
..... Things are **** in Louisiana too.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Mardi Gras’ timing was horrible as mentioned in the article.

”According to one study, Louisiana, with nearly 1,800 cases as of Thursday morning, is experiencing the fastest growth in new cases in the world.”

www.nytimes.com

New Orleans Faces a Virus Nightmare, and Mardi Gras May Be Why (Published 2020)

Louisiana may be experiencing the world’s fastest growth in new cases. Medical experts said Mardi Gras might have accelerated the crisis.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
dr doze said:
Just speculating, but It is possible that AMCs assume no risk on some contracts. They get a guarantee from the hospital against which they put collections in return for a guaranteed availability of service.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
Click to expand...

They assume risks. For sure. They often pick bad groups and have to cut them loose do to underperformance. Not all contracts are the same and when purchasing a “good” group they may mitigate loss of revenue. I think the new strategy going forward will be just taking a certain percentage of total revenue and letting the group keep the rest. This way they profit no matter what. No guaranteed incomes.
 
Regarding who is responsible for the terrible response to COVID by our country, can we all just agree the government as a whole did a horrible job (local and national)? Enough finger pointing..

coffeebythelake said:
I dont know what you are trying to get at. NYC is doing well given the circumstances and the leadership is much better than Trumps ranting.
Click to expand...

NYC was running the subways and had schools open until last week. The 'leadership' in that state was terrible.

vector2 said:
View attachment 299833
Click to expand...

And hard to argue with this...
 
Anyone sensing a bottom?
I am going heavy the last few days.

Flight industry, oil, tcp, Dis, NZF and the broad market/large caps.
 
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sevoflurane said:
Anyone sensing a bottom?
I am going heavy the last few days.
Click to expand...

S&P is up almost 20% from the low on Monday afternoon right before close so I can't really call this a bottom, maybe a few days ago though.

Truthfully though I suspect there will still be ups and downs until we are past the worst of the pandemic.
 
Mman said:
S&P is up almost 20% from the low on Monday afternoon right before close so I can't really call this a bottom, maybe a few days ago though.

Truthfully though I suspect there will still be ups and downs until we are past the worst of the pandemic.
Click to expand...

I've been buying the last few days (actually all the way down as well). Heavier on big drop days and increasing amounts invested over the last few days. Interest rates are going to stay low for a while, so dividend paying muni bond etf's that are tax exempt have been very attractive.
Bought 40k of NZF over the last few days. Of course I could be 1000% wrong. But I am still coming in pretty low and have more CD/money market funds to invest for a while. :xf:
 
sevoflurane said:
I've been buying the last few days (actually all the way down as well). Heavier on big drop days and increasing amounts invested over the last few days. Interest rates are going to stay low for a while, so dividend paying muni bond etf's that are tax exempt have been very attractive.
Bought 40k of NZF over the last few days. Of course I could be 1000% wrong. But I am still coming in pretty low and have more CD/money market funds to invest for a while. :xf:
Click to expand...


it takes an awful lot of interest to make up for lost principal.
 
dr doze said:
it takes an awful lot of interest to make up for lost principal.
Click to expand...

Yeah I know you are not big on them, but they have done exceptionally well for me and as long as interest rates stay low, they should do ok.

I only buy them on large dips and 6% tax free return is still ok in my book.
 
okayplayer said:
Where is the dude on here saying he’s making millions shorting the market? Up 18% in 3 days...

The point is not that I’m some genius who can predict better than that guy - none of us can predict what will happen from day to day. The only difference between me and that guy is that I recognize my own inability to guess market outcomes in the short term.
Click to expand...

And it’ll be back down 18% in 7 😉
 
sevoflurane said:
Anyone sensing a bottom?
I am going heavy the last few days.

Flight industry, oil, tcp, Dis, NZF and the broad market/large caps.
Click to expand...

we have to correct back towards 18k right?

I think the stimulus is baked in at this point.

everything is shut down and unemployment is at record highs
 
sevoflurane said:
Yeah I know you are not big on them, but they have done exceptionally well for me and as long as interest rates stay low, they should do ok.

I only buy them on large dips and 6% tax free return is still ok in my book.
Click to expand...

one week ago it was 15% lower. About the same as the stock market. Not what I want my bonds to do.
 
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dr doze said:
one week ago it was 15% lower. About the same as the stock market. Not what I want my bonds to do.
Click to expand...

I hear you and won't argue that point. This is not a bond that I rebalance with however.
I buy the cyclical big dips and generally pull in 20k tax free income per year.
 
What I find so amazing by this thread is people actually advocating buying right now. Either the whole entire global economy based on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones has absolutely no pulse on how the actual economy is doing, or people are in denial about how much this will actually effect the economy. We can say that >50% of the economy is shut down. Why would the Dow/Nasdaq recover, despite a massive stimulus? This isn't going to jumpstart economy, its just gonna move the doom to a later date. My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
 
NicMouse64 said:
What I find so amazing by this thread is people actually advocating buying right now. Either the whole entire global economy based on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones has absolutely no pulse on how the actual economy is doing, or people are in denial about how much this will actually effect the economy. We can say that >50% of the economy is shut down. Why would the Dow/Nasdaq recover, despite a massive stimulus? This isn't going to jumpstart economy, its just gonna move the doom to a later date. My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
Click to expand...

You are predicting a market that will drop to 12k....? Nobody knows where it's going to drop to or when it will rebound.
Everything is cheap right now and may get cheaper or more expensive. But it definitely is cheap. Don't go all in. I definitely am not.
But will continue to buy on the way down on big dips. We will see how it all pans out. Best of luck to everyone.
 
Mad Jack said:
My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Can you please give me a prediction for the Dow in 20-30+ years?
 
NicMouse64 said:
What I find so amazing by this thread is people actually advocating buying right now. Either the whole entire global economy based on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones has absolutely no pulse on how the actual economy is doing, or people are in denial about how much this will actually effect the economy. We can say that >50% of the economy is shut down. Why would the Dow/Nasdaq recover, despite a massive stimulus? This isn't going to jumpstart economy, its just gonna move the doom to a later date. My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
Click to expand...


When you print trillions, it's got to go somewhere.
 
NicMouse64 said:
What I find so amazing by this thread is people actually advocating buying right now. Either the whole entire global economy based on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones has absolutely no pulse on how the actual economy is doing, or people are in denial about how much this will actually effect the economy. We can say that >50% of the economy is shut down. Why would the Dow/Nasdaq recover, despite a massive stimulus? This isn't going to jumpstart economy, its just gonna move the doom to a later date. My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
Click to expand...

The market bottom is in people. The best we can hope for is re-test of 2200. The "doom and gloom" may be correct in 5, 6 or 10 years but over the next 12 months the market is going to ROCKET upwards. I expect at least 1 major pullback and that is the buying opportunity before we see 2700. This 5-8 Trillion dollar stimulus bill, zero percent interest rates and UNLIMITED QE will push stocks back up well before the death rate levels off. I am waiting for the drop back/ re-test of 2200 before putting more money to work. This is THE TIME to buy stocks. If you have cash the overall market is still a buy even today. You will regret not putting money to work during this crisis by August when we are back over 2700.

1585244999898.png
 
okayplayer said:
Where is the dude on here saying he’s making millions shorting the market? Up 18% in 3 days...

The point is not that I’m some genius who can predict better than that guy - none of us can predict what will happen from day to day. The only difference between me and that guy is that I recognize my own inability to guess market outcomes in the short term.
Click to expand...

I can predict with 90% ++ probability that even if you buy TODAY that investment will be up in 12 months by a lot. This is MASSIVE liquidity with ZERO interest rates combined with a stimulus bill of multiple trillions. Holy Cow Batman this is going to light up the stock market by the summer. Pull-backs will now be bought rather than sold. Let's hope we get back to 2350 or even 2200 because I have a boatload of relatively worthless U.S. currency to buy long term equities.
 
The bad news is being priced into the stock market. Any good news and stocks rocket higher even faster.


POINTS
  • Thursday’s report that a record 3.28 million people sought unemployment benefits in the week ended March 21 was met by relief in markets that the number was not far worse.
  • Economists had expected anywhere between 1 million and 4 million new claims to be filed for the week , as the impact of the first state shelter-in-place orders affected workers.
  • “The focus by the market now is on the fact we’re likely to get a historically large fiscal stimulus bill signed in the House by Friday. This is just the beginning of a tsunami of negative news,” said one strategist.

www.cnbc.com

Markets take 3 million claims in stride and now brace for 'tsunami of negative news'

The first crushing wave of 3.28 million workers seeking unemployment benefits is expected to be followed by millions more in coming weeks.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
POINTS
  • Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said investors should commend Washington’s policy response to the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic.
  • “Investors can take heart that we’ve counteracted this existential shock with the greatest fiscal, monetary bazooka. It’s not even a bazooka. It’s more like a nuclear bomb,” the billionaire told CNBC.
  • “We did in two weeks what it took the Fed eight months to do in 2009,” Jones added.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
I can predict with 90% ++ probability that even if you buy TODAY that investment will be up in 12 months by a lot. This is MASSIVE liquidity with ZERO interest rates combined with a stimulus bill of multiple trillions. Holy Cow Batman this is going to light up the stock market by the summer. Pull-backs will now be bought rather than sold. Let's hope we get back to 2350 or even 2200 because I have a boatload of relatively worthless U.S. currency to buy long term equities.
Click to expand...

I want a boatload of both (50/50) Stocks/(CDs, cash, Short treasurys, TIPs,
 
Boeing is up over 80% in just a few days. Boeing is now at $180 and climbing. I'm hoping to buy in at $165 during a pullback. Boeing is likely worth $250-$280 per share next year.
 
dr doze said:
I want a boatload of both (50/50) Stocks/(CDs, cash, Short treasurys, TIPs,
Click to expand...


I'd rather be in equities the next 12 months then sell some and put the money back into "safe" investments. IMHO, the FED and the U.S govt. have given us the "Green light" to buy equities all the way up to 3,000. Sure, it may take a year but I have never seen a more likely scenario for a gain like this in my lifetime.
 
I bought when the DOW was at 19k but am saving the rest to either DCA over the next few months if the volatility continues or lump sum if it dips back down. Been hard to keep the finger off the trigger the last two days though since it seems Wall Street thinks it's figured everything out.. I'm betting on another dip that's associated more with consumer fear as the death toll significantly rises, but who knows may miss out by being greedy.
 
NicMouse64 said:
What I find so amazing by this thread is people actually advocating buying right now. Either the whole entire global economy based on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones has absolutely no pulse on how the actual economy is doing, or people are in denial about how much this will actually effect the economy. We can say that >50% of the economy is shut down. Why would the Dow/Nasdaq recover, despite a massive stimulus? This isn't going to jumpstart economy, its just gonna move the doom to a later date. My prediction is that we will see the dow hit 12k at some point in the next year if we don't stop the spread of the virus in major hotspots in the coming 2-3 weeks. No one can predict the market, but you can be one step ahead of the rest of the sheep without a medical background. Do you really think this is gonna contain itself in the next 2-3 weeks with the current measures? Unlikely unless we get lucky with a mutation. I've got 10k saved up from some lucky investments. It's not going in the stock market anytime soon.
Click to expand...


You haven't been around very long slim. I've seen this scenario a few times and each time it ends the same way: Stock Market goes way up. Don't fight the FED and a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill. That's okay you can just buy back in at 3,000 when the rest of the herd gets the green light.
 
e30ftw said:
I bought when the DOW was at 19k but am saving the rest to either DCA over the next few months if the volatility continues or lump sum if it dips back down. Been hard to keep the finger off the trigger the last two days though since it seems Wall Street thinks it's figured everything out.. I'm betting on another dip that's associated more with consumer fear as the death toll significantly rises, but who knows may miss out by being greedy.
Click to expand...

Nothing goes straight up. There is a LOT Of bad news still coming our way. Next 4-8 weeks will be very ugly in terms of deaths in NYC. I am hoping the market over-reacts for a day or two so I can buy more cheap as heck equities.
 
okayplayer said:
Where is the dude on here saying he’s making millions shorting the market? Up 18% in 3 days...

The point is not that I’m some genius who can predict better than that guy - none of us can predict what will happen from day to day. The only difference between me and that guy is that I recognize my own inability to guess market outcomes in the short term.
Click to expand...

Really? How smart do you have to be to recognize that the U.S. govt. and Fed have injected more money into the system than ever before in history. This Covid 19 won't last beyond July/August before it levels off significantly. By then the market will still have MASSIVE amounts of money to digest and a few trillion dollars of back-stop. You don't need to be a good guesser to predict the outcome over 6-8 months.
 
Arch Guillotti said:
I am staying the course😉
Click to expand...

That always beats selling too late and missing the major uptick. Nothing wrong with staying the course but use this time to re-evaluate all your investments and allocations.
 
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BLADEMDA said:
You haven't been around very long slim. I've seen this scenario a few times and each time it ends the same way: Stock Market goes way up. Don't fight the FED and a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill. That's okay you can just buy back in at 3,000 when the rest of the herd gets the green light.
Click to expand...
I may be young but I have access to the same graphs and forecasts you do. I've also followed the financial posts on this forum pretty closely the last few years. It seems you are right 50% of the time and brazenly wrong the other 50%. Just like most investors. I'll pin this post for 6 months and we can see who was right. Statistically one of us probably will be haha. I lost a bunch of money in crypto like an idiot but made a ton of money in a healthcare startup stock. Just about luck, really.
 
Executives are buying stock in droves, giving a ‘strong’ signal that the comeback is for real
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 26 20202:02 PM EDTUPDATED 30 MIN AGO


  • During the recent market rout, executives have been buying their company stocks more than selling.
  • The ratio of companies with insider buying compared to insider selling is at 1.75 for March, its highest level since March of 2009, according to Washington Service, a provider of insider-trading and data analytics.
  • “A dramatic increase in insider buying volume combined with dampened levels of insider selling has resulted in the generation of industry buy inflections – our strongest, quantitative macro signal – for the entire market,” InsiderScore director of research Ben Silverman said in a note.
 
NicMouse64 said:
I may be young but I have access to the same graphs and forecasts you do. I've also followed the financial posts on this forum pretty closely the last few years. It seems you are right 50% of the time and brazenly wrong the other 50%. Just like most investors. I'll pin this post for 6 months and we can see who was right. Statistically one of us probably will be haha. I lost a bunch of money in crypto like an idiot but made a ton of money in a healthcare startup stock. Just about luck, really.
Click to expand...


Guessing the market "low" is like trying to make a 3 pointer from half court. The % of success is very, very low. But, guessing that this market will be higher in 12 months is like the probability of Lebron James making a lay-up. It's all but a given.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Executives are buying stock in droves, giving a ‘strong’ signal that the comeback is for real
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 26 20202:02 PM EDTUPDATED 30 MIN AGO


  • During the recent market rout, executives have been buying their company stocks more than selling.
  • The ratio of companies with insider buying compared to insider selling is at 1.75 for March, its highest level since March of 2009, according to Washington Service, a provider of insider-trading and data analytics.
  • “A dramatic increase in insider buying volume combined with dampened levels of insider selling has resulted in the generation of industry buy inflections – our strongest, quantitative macro signal – for the entire market,” InsiderScore director of research Ben Silverman said in a note.
Click to expand...

Can any of you guess what happened to the stock market in March of 2009? If you had bought stocks on March 01, 2009 guess how much money you made over the next 3-4 years?
 
vector2 said:
Jobless claims double what was expected....3.3m vs 1.5m expected. Still maintaining S&p will test 2000
Click to expand...
The stimulus package was way too early. Just like slashing the interest rate to zero. When May comes by and the country is still shut down, that's when people will realize how much **** we're in.
 
BLADEMDA said:
The market bottom is in people. The best we can hope for is re-test of 2200. The "doom and gloom" may be correct in 5, 6 or 10 years but over the next 12 months the market is going to ROCKET upwards. I expect at least 1 major pullback and that is the buying opportunity before we see 2700. This 5-8 Trillion dollar stimulus bill, zero percent interest rates and UNLIMITED QE will push stocks back up well before the death rate levels off. I am waiting for the drop back/ re-test of 2200 before putting more money to work. This is THE TIME to buy stocks. If you have cash the overall market is still a buy even today. You will regret not putting money to work during this crisis by August when we are back over 2700.

View attachment 299848
Click to expand...
I'm still sticking to my bear guns. I think these gains are temporary and will evaporate when things end up remaining closed, cases continue to spread, bodies mount, and the stimulus proves to be the fiscal equivalent of trying to subdue a bear with a pool noodle. These gains are based on hope that is going to die come Easter.
 
Mad Jack said:
I'm still sticking to my bear guns. I think these gains are temporary and will evaporate when things end up remaining closed, cases continue to spread, bodies mount, and the stimulus proves to be the fiscal equivalent of trying to subdue a bear with a pool noodle. These gains are based on hope that is going to die come Easter.
Click to expand...

the stock market should be a measure of the long term profitability of companies, of which this pandemic should do relatively little to. Short term it's terrible for the US and the world, but it can't last forever. There are millions and millions of people wanting to get back to work and go out and spend money.

Short term the market is a voting machine and long term it is a weighing machine.
 
Mman said:
the stock market should be a measure of the long term profitability of companies, of which this pandemic should do relatively little to. Short term it's terrible for the US and the world, but it can't last forever. There are millions and millions of people wanting to get back to work and go out and spend money.

Short term the market is a voting machine and long term it is a weighing machine.
Click to expand...
The problem is, up to 25 million people could permanently lose their jobs even with this paltry stimulus due to their jobs going under. Companies can't make money without consumers, and it is kind of a feed forward mechanism- less people have money to spend because people lose jobs so more people lose jobs until the system stabilizes. The market was already highly overvalued and I think the stability point is much lower than anything we have seen in over a decade
 
Mad Jack said:
The problem is, up to 25 million people could permanently lose their jobs even with this paltry stimulus due to their jobs going under. Companies can't make money without consumers, and it is kind of a feed forward mechanism- less people have money to spend because people lose jobs so more people lose jobs until the system stabilizes. The market was already highly overvalued and I think the stability point is much lower than anything we have seen in over a decade
Click to expand...

I don’t see how we don’t wind up without either a deflationary collapse or massive inflation. Maybe both.


Sent from my iPhone using SDN mobile
 
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