theory about how few people have any acceptances at this point

[mlw03]

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so this is a theory my father came up with, and although we disagree slightly on the numbers, i think he's probably right in principle. so i submit to the board for comments.

my father estimates that only 1/3 of people who will get accepted somewhere have by this point. i think it's about half, but here's the mechanism: most people who have gotten in by now have at least 2 acceptances, and they're holding onto them still. and schools can only send out more as people begin to decline their acceptances, and that likely won't start until march at earliest. so until then, there are a lot of people out there waiting for their first acceptane.

we can quibble about the percentages, but what about the theory in general? do ya'll think there are a lot of people who haven't gotten in anywhere yet, yet will do so before august?

 

[jbish]

I'm not sure...2 people I knew applying last year got only one acceptance. One other person got her acceptance to her top choice very early and dropped all of her other applications. The rest of us had multiple acceptances. All people I knew who are currently in med school (that I have talked to in regards to this stuff) had their acceptances before June. Even my mom, who only had one acceptance out of 20 applications, got hers before June. The people that get into med school do so because they have competitive applications....and for the most part they will be competitive at more than one med school. I think you have to count on at least a good chunk of the application pool just not being competitive enough to garner any acceptances.

 

[exmike]

Originally posted by mlw03
and schools can only send out more as people begin to decline their acceptances, and that likely won't start until march at earliest. so until then, there are a lot of people out there waiting for their first acceptane.

I think it also depends on the school. Some schools offer close to their yearly max of acceptances hoping that a predicatable chunk decline them (a couple schools have indicated they do this). These schools probably offer well more than the number of slots they have and consequently they will take far fewer off waitlist.

On the other hand some schools probably only accept the AAMC minimum by May 15th and take many off waitlist.

 

[basupran]

I haven't gotten in anywhere yet...I think the majority who will get in have gotten in by now, and most people that haven't wont. Schools historically offer more spots than available to compenstate for multiple acceptances. I wish you were right, but I have my doubts.

🙁

 

[Amy B]

You ususally see a big raise in the number of people accepted in May after the May 15th deadline for people holding 2 or more acceptances. Since they can only have 1 at that point they have to give up the rest. However they can stay on waitlists, if they get off the waitlists, they have to still give up an acceptance due to only being able to hold onto 1 after May 15th.

And by the way it is this date that schools that have accepted you will get a list of the schools you have been accepted by. So don't think you can hold onto more than 1. The dean of MCV told me this.

 

[coldchemist]

Originally posted by jbish
All people I knew who are currently in med school (that I have talked to in regards to this stuff) had their acceptances before June. Even my mom, who only had one acceptance out of 20 applications, got hers before June.

You do realize that June is still more than FIVE MONTHS away, right? Your post makes it sound like it's almost the end of May...

😉

 

[edfig99]

the AAMC has rules regarding how many people HAVE to be accepted at a given school by a certain date -- usually it's at least 100% of their available spots, and it's sometime between March and May...I don't remember. some schools end up accepting a little more anticipating attrition once certain high profile schools accept, i.e. School X may accept 150 even though it's class is only 75 because they know a lot of their applicants will drop once Harvard or Columbia or whichever school sends out their acceptance.

Knowing about this attrition, however, schools accept only a few people early -- it's basically to woo students, let them know they are interested....encourage them to get the FAFSA in, so their award can be calculated....otherwise, schools have very little incentive to accept anyone before they're done interviewing, which is some time in march for non-rolling schools.

Once May 15th arrives, things change dramatically -- accepted students who are holding multiple spots have to choose one, or risk ending up at none. new spots open up, and then the "second layer" of acceptances and eventual waitlist start to get used up. schools will see what schools you are accepted at...though they cannot see waitlists.

 

[Rendar5]

Originally posted by basupran
I haven't gotten in anywhere yet...I think the majority who will get in have gotten in by now, and most people that haven't wont. Schools historically offer more spots than available to compenstate for multiple acceptances. I wish you were right, but I have my doubts.

🙁

Most schools accept around double the number of spots, even extremely good schools. Most of my friends who applied to med school got in toward the very end of the season off the wait-list. Some schools barely touch their wait-list. Other schools accept 1/3 to 1/2 of their applicants off the wait-list. It really depends on the school.

 

[ZekeMD]

Originally posted by basupran
I haven't gotten in anywhere yet...I think the majority who will get in have gotten in by now, and most people that haven't wont. Schools historically offer more spots than available to compenstate for multiple acceptances. I wish you were right, but I have my doubts.

🙁

Don't doubt yourself like that. I don't yet have an acceptance, but I'm not worried. There are definately many people with multiple acceptances (just look at the acceptance thread), and I think most people are holding onto at least 2, maybe more! If schools only send out enough acceptances to fill their class at any given time (a reasonable assumption), and many people are holding 2 acceptances, then logically twice as many students will be accepted than have been thus far. Don't beat yourself up about this so much. Just relax and try not to dwell on it. I wish you the best though.

 

[Rendar5]

Originally posted by basupran
I haven't gotten in anywhere yet...I think the majority who will get in have gotten in by now, and most people that haven't wont. Schools historically offer more spots than available to compenstate for multiple acceptances. I wish you were right, but I have my doubts.

🙁

Most schools accept around double the number of spots, even extremely good schools. Most of my friends who applied to med school got in toward the very end of the season off the wait-list. Some schools barely touch their wait-list. Other schools accept 1/3 to 1/2 of their applicants off the wait-list. It really depends on the school.

Not to mention that some schools haven't even sent the bulk of their acceptances out yet. I know some places wait until Feb. or March to do this.

 

[finnpipette]

deja-vu

 

[finnpipette]

there must be a glitch in the matrix.

 

[Rendar5]

What is the editing matrix? 😉

 

[Jalby]

I know my school has accepted over half the total amount they are going to accept right now.

 

[emanresu]

Originally posted by mlw03
so this is a theory my father came up with, and although we disagree slightly on the numbers, i think he's probably right in principle. so i submit to the board for comments.

my father estimates that only 1/3 of people who will get accepted somewhere have by this point. i think it's about half, but here's the mechanism: most people who have gotten in by now have at least 2 acceptances, and they're holding onto them still. and schools can only send out more as people begin to decline their acceptances, and that likely won't start until march at earliest. so until then, there are a lot of people out there waiting for their first acceptane.

we can quibble about the percentages, but what about the theory in general? do ya'll think there are a lot of people who haven't gotten in anywhere yet, yet will do so before august?

This is a good theory. Right now, I can't find any grounds to contest it. Apart from being undecided, I would add that people who hold >1 acceptance are holding out for scholarships/financial aid packages (this is my case). Also, deposits are lost after a certain date - before May 15, of course.

 

[Odaroloc]

I have had 4 interviews and at all of them I have heard the same thing...schools got in trouble a few yrs back for over accepting so now, they fill up the class, wait for withdrawls, fill it back up and so on...depending on a school's caliber, they can fill it up once, or use half or most of its waitlist refilling the class...the time to worry is June or July, but definitely not before March. Hope this helps

 

[CalBeE]

I do think many schools still give out acceptances even when a class is already filled at a certain time. They can do this based on experience of # of people withdrawing for past years.

The thing is, as much as schools want to prevent over-accepting applicants, they also want to retain good candidates. Some people will probably withdraw from a school if they're on waitlist, even if that school's their top choice (I'll probably be one of them for my personal reasons).

 

[nrosigh]

I think very few people have acceptances so far, regardless of how many on SDN already do. Schools aren't required to accept their class size until March 15, which is still almost two months away. And then with all the waitlist movement (between 1.5 classsize and 3x classize), I'd estimate that less than 20% of acceptances have been given out so far.

 

[Harps]

Originally posted by nrosigh
I think very few people have acceptances so far, regardless of how many on SDN already do. Schools aren't required to accept their class size until March 15, which is still almost two months away. And then with all the waitlist movement (between 1.5 classsize and 3x classize), I'd estimate that less than 20% of acceptances have been given out so far.

I know that a lot of people have interviewed, but they're still awaiting acceptances. Remember guys, each person can attend only ONE school. Good luck and best wishes.

-Harps

 

[DD214_DOC]

I think it's because admissions is a lot more competitive than you think. Consider it. Even though a school may have, say, 200 seats available, you're not competing for one of those 200 seats. Typically, schools keep an even ratio of males and females, so from the start you're only competing for one of 100 of these seats, +/- a few. Next, how many seats are reserved for URMs? 10-20 maybe?

Also, the mean GPA of schools is a bunch of crap. A school may have a 3.5 average matriculant GPA, but a bunch of 3.7s and a couple of 3.3s from students with incredible EC's or connections will drop the mean GPA quite a bit, not to mention these GPAs include the URM grades.

Do not buy the lie of stats.

 

[mlw03]

there were some good replies, and i've come to agree that the greatest movement will occur well after march, and probably into early june. it'll make apartment hunting a real PITA for a lot of people, but there's not much alternative.

for those that are current med students, would you agree with the sentiment most people expressed in this thread, ie that there are A LOT of people in your class that didn't know they were going there until well into spring? this especially applies to people that are at non-state schools.