Thoughts on I Bonds. Buy now or wait for rate adjustment?

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pastafan

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I have been buying I Bonds for there past few years. Current yield is 5.27%. I'm debating on buying my yearly allotment now or whether waiting until the next rate adjustment would be beneficial. Thoughts?

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I was just debating buying again this year. This has like a 1.3% fixed rate in that 5.27%, so if interest rates go up like a few years ago, they had no fixed rate, so then you'll be getting a better return.
 
wait till mid April to decide.
 
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I sold my bonds from last year and just bought new ones this month.
Sold my and my gift box as well.

I see no incentive to buy. Why did you buy? Vanguard money market settlement fund is 5.35% risk free.
 
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Sold my and my gift box as well.

I see no incentive to buy. Why did you buy? Vanguard money market settlement fund is 5.35% risk free.
for long term holders, the current I Bond fixed rate is 1.3% Historically attractive. Vanguard Money market is also historically attractive, but obviously has reinvestment risk.
 
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Why would you do that.? You lose 3 months of interest for nothing.
you do, but the interest for the last three months was under 4% annual with a fixed rate of 0.0 for the life of the bond. Most of the I bonds issued the last decade are at 0.0%. There is a good case to be made for redeeming some or all of them depending on individual circumstances.


 
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Sold my and my gift box as well.

I see no incentive to buy. Why did you buy? Vanguard money market settlement fund is 5.35% risk free.
Long term buy and hold investors would find the current fixed rate on the I bonds very attractive. In addition, taxes on the interest gains of the I bonds can be deferred until it is sold, unlike the money market funds
 
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I sold my i bonds as well beginning of January. Have most of my money in vtsax vxus or vusxx. I like the liquidity of vanguard mmf vusxx and state tax exempt like ibonds.
 
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I sold my i bonds as well beginning of January. Have most of my money in vtsax vxus or vusxx. I like the liquidity of vanguard mmf vusxx and state tax exempt like ibonds.
I’ve had my ibonds for 15 months. For now I’m sitting on it but will definitely sell if the rate goes down much more. I can’t imagine buying at this point.
 
I bought some because of the fixed rate of 1.3%.
How is that appealing? My savings account yields 4.5%, is immediately available, and doesn’t penalize me 3 months interest for selling.
 
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How is that appealing? My savings account yields 4.5%, is immediately available, and doesn’t penalize me 3 months interest for selling.

That savings account rate is transient. Only a couple years ago, you would be hard pressed to find a rate better than 1%. That fixed rate on the I bond will remain for up to 30 years (in addition to whatever the variable rate will be). The biggest advantages over a money market is the tax deferral and gains during high inflation rate environments (I.e. real returns)

Admittedly, the I bond makes up only 1/3 of my annual bond contribution, with a goal of only 5% of my overall portfolio. So, while this makes a very low proportion, this is definitely a safe investment that is guaranteed not to lose money (Rate can never go lower than 0%, even in a deflationary environment) and the most attractive it has looked in about 15+ years, owing to the high fixed rate (much more important than the variable rate)
 
How is that appealing? My savings account yields 4.5%, is immediately available, and doesn’t penalize me 3 months interest for selling.
the 1.3% is the REAL rate which is fixed. The variable rate is based on one of the CPI metrics.
 
just buy $USFR etf or another similar product like $SGOV. 30 day yield standing at 5.4%. pretty liquid, have your cash in 2 days after selling if you need it. until fed cuts rate, i think these rates will hold for near future.
 
Yeah I know. That’s a terrible return.
In a low inflation market, yes, it would be a terrible return compared to the stock market. But with 1.3% fixed rate, the yield on this bond is CPI + 1.3%, so if the inflation is high again and the variable rate goes up, I get the variable rate + 1.3%. So it will protect me against inflation. For example, when the variable rate was 9% last year, people that bought the ibond when the fixed rate was 2% was getting 11%.

Obviously, this isn't the sole investment. I've already maxed out all tax saving vehicles (401ks will be maxed out later this year), and put enough money into taxable account for equities, so putting in some into the Ibond just adds to diversification. My entire bond is still less than 15% of my portfolio.
 
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In a low inflation market, yes, it would be a terrible return compared to the stock market. But with 1.3% fixed rate, the yield on this bond is CPI + 1.3%, so if the inflation is high again and the variable rate goes up, I get the variable rate + 1.3%. So it will protect me against inflation. For example, when the variable rate was 9% last year, people that bought the ibond when the fixed rate was 2% was getting 11%.

Obviously, this isn't the sole investment. I've already maxed out all tax saving vehicles (401ks will be maxed out later this year), and put enough money into taxable account for equities, so putting in some into the Ibond just adds to diversification. My entire bond is still less than 15% of my portfolio.
The fixed rate was 2% in 2002, so they got terrible returns for 9 years while waiting to get decent returns for a year or two. The average return over time was terrible, even with a ‘high’ fixed rate.
 
The fixed rate was 2% in 2002, so they got terrible returns for 9 years while waiting to get decent returns for a year or two. The average return over time was terrible, even with a ‘high’ fixed rate.
All true statements, but hindsight is always 20/20. You don't know what the future holds. Ibond remains zero risk investment vehicle where you will never lose money, so it adds to diversification. It should be a small part of your portfolio if you decide to buy some.
 
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FYI, I had mistakenly thought limit on paper I bonds with tax return refund was 5k but it is 10k per couple.

Can married couples buy more than $10,000 worth of I bonds in a single year?
Yes, since bond purchase limits are based on a person’s Social Security number, a married couple could buy up to $30,000 in I bonds annually. Each spouse could buy $10,000 in electronic I bonds and $5,000 in paper I bonds, assuming their federal tax refund is large enough.
 

FYI. A warning for those thinking of purchasing paper I-bonds

"My bank (Wells Fargo in Charlotte) still redeems paper savings bonds, but some banks no longer offer that service. TreasuryDirect says, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” From a recent New York Times (When Did Cashing Savings Bonds Become So Impossible?) article:
Hoping to cash in a paper savings bond that’s been lying around for a few decades? Set aside a lot of time for disappointment. …
The process is only getting harder. In May, the nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, began imposing a $500 limit on each savings bond cashed for longtime depositors — that’s total redemption value, so including any interest owed. Wells Fargo and Citi place a $1,000 limit on new customers. U.S. Bank has
a five-year waiting period before it will cash a bond for a new customer."
 

FYI. A warning for those thinking of purchasing paper I-bonds

"My bank (Wells Fargo in Charlotte) still redeems paper savings bonds, but some banks no longer offer that service. TreasuryDirect says, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” From a recent New York Times (When Did Cashing Savings Bonds Become So Impossible?) article:
Hoping to cash in a paper savings bond that’s been lying around for a few decades? Set aside a lot of time for disappointment. …
The process is only getting harder. In May, the nation’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, began imposing a $500 limit on each savings bond cashed for longtime depositors — that’s total redemption value, so including any interest owed. Wells Fargo and Citi place a $1,000 limit on new customers. U.S. Bank has
a five-year waiting period before it will cash a bond for a new customer."
you can get them converted to electronic via a conversion linked account in Treasury direct. I did the paper Bond thing for a few years. Gave it up as it was a bit of a pain. I did send them to The Treasury and got them converted. They are tax deferred. Not tax free. Just like 401k and 403b and 457 withdrawals.
 
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Yeah I know. That’s a terrible return.
Not based on the last decade of IBond returns. Take a look how things like total bond market or long term bonds have fared recently.
 
Can't get rich off bonds.
No, but you take your chips off the table when you have won the game. Right now TIPs are very reasonable. I have been converting nominals to them over the last six months an extending maturities. I am 60+. If I were 40 ish. Not so much
 
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you can get them converted to electronic via a conversion linked account in Treasury direct. I did the paper Bond thing for a few years. Gave it up as it was a bit of a pain. I did send them to The Treasury and got them converted.
I also sent for conversion. Had me a bit worried as the process took around 9 months if I remember correctly.
 
I also sent for conversion. Had me a bit worried as the process took around 9 months if I remember correctly.
Lots of interest in Bonds the last few years. Also with banks not doing the paper thing, even more work for the Treasury.
 
FYI, I had mistakenly thought limit on paper I bonds with tax return refund was 5k but it is 10k per couple.

Can married couples buy more than $10,000 worth of I bonds in a single year?
Yes, since bond purchase limits are based on a person’s Social Security number, a married couple could buy up to $30,000 in I bonds annually. Each spouse could buy $10,000 in electronic I bonds and $5,000 in paper I bonds, assuming their federal tax refund is large enough.
Ibonds= 1.3% fixed rate + rate of inflation

Tips= 1.7% fixed rate + rate of inflation

Both are fine conservative investments but clearly the math favors Tips in a tax deferred account vs iBonds in Treasury Direct (no taxes until you cash out the bond)
 
Ibonds= 1.3% fixed rate + rate of inflation

Tips= 1.7% fixed rate + rate of inflation

Both are fine conservative investments but clearly the math favors Tips in a tax deferred account vs iBonds in Treasury Direct (no taxes until you cash out the bond)
Yup.

Curve balls that affect individual situation: Tax deferred space that is already filled with fixed income? Should you buy the TIPs in a taxable account? Current tax bracket versus expected future tax bracket? Should you cash in Bonds that you have held at 0.0 fixed and pay taxes to buy TIPs at higher yields?
 
Yup.

Curve balls that affect individual situation: Tax deferred space that is already filled with fixed income? Should you buy the TIPs in a taxable account? Current tax bracket versus expected future tax bracket? Should you cash in Bonds that you have held at 0.0 fixed and pay taxes to buy TIPs at higher yields?

You shouldn’t have any bonds unless your retirement budget is really tight and you are old. The math doesn’t add up.
 
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You shouldn’t have any bonds unless your retirement budget is really tight and you are old. The math doesn’t add up.
"old." Can you define that number? I think once you reach let's say $5 million there is room for 20% in fixed income like CDs, Tips, ibonds or bonds at today's rates. I can fully understand that those under the age of 45 want the growth of equities and are willing to stomach the volatility. But, I think a 100% equity portfolio is unnecessary and even foolish as you head into your "older" years like past age 55. However, if you find yourself simply unable to retire by age 65 with a 20% fixed income portion then you have significant financial issues and retirement s likely off the table until much, much later.
 
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Yup.

Curve balls that affect individual situation: Tax deferred space that is already filled with fixed income? Should you buy the TIPs in a taxable account? Current tax bracket versus expected future tax bracket? Should you cash in Bonds that you have held at 0.0 fixed and pay taxes to buy TIPs at higher yields?
"Friends don't let friends buy Tips in a taxable account." Rob Berger.

 
"old." Can you define that number? I think once you reach let's say $5 million there is room for 20% in fixed income like CDs, Tips, ibonds or bonds at today's rates. I can fully understand that those under the age of 45 want the growth of equities and are willing to stomach the volatility. But, I think a 100% equity portfolio is unnecessary and even foolish as you head into your "older" years like past age 55. However, if you find yourself simply unable to retire by age 65 with a 20% fixed income portion then you have significant financial issues and retirement s likely off the table until much, much later.

You could argue that you should never buy bonds, but the older you are, the less the gains you’ll be missing out on. (It’s not really about age, it’s about years of life remaining, but I’m using age in place of actuarial life expectancy. )
 
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You could argue that you should never buy bonds, but the older you are, the less the gains you’ll be missing out on. (It’s not really about age, it’s about years of life remaining, but I’m using age in place of actuarial life expectancy. )
So a 100% equity based portfolio for life? Typically, that is for people who don't have enough in savings to last their lifetime.

From Bogleheads:

1. From the charts I have seen, risk goes up more than return when you move from 20% bonds to 0% bonds. In other words, the 80:20 portfolio gives more return for risk taken (more "bang for the buck") than a 100% stock portfolio. To me, it is just smarter to choose the option that gives more return for risk taken.

2. There are times, even times as long as a decade, when bonds generate more profit than stocks. For people who are not familiar with that concept, do a little research on "the lost decade" and see what I mean. Or simply chart 500 index vs total bond market from the year 2000 to 2009 (or 2001 - 2010, and so on) and see which asset class made more money.
 
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Stocks help you eat well
Bonds help you sleep well

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(1926-2022)

Average annual return: 9.4%
Best year (1933): 45.4%
Worst year (1931): –34.9%
Years with a loss: 24 of 97



100% stocks

Historical Risk/Return
(1926-2022)

Average annual return: 10.1%
Best year (1933): 54.2%
Worst year (1931): –43.1%
Years with a loss: 26 of 97
 
You could argue that you should never buy bonds, but the older you are, the less the gains you’ll be missing out on. (It’s not really about age, it’s about years of life remaining, but I’m using age in place of actuarial life expectancy. )
The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500® generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period. This was only the second time that the market actually had a negative total return over a decade period. The other period was the Great Depression decade of the 1930s.
 
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The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500® generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period. This was only the second time that the market actually had a negative total return over a decade period. The other period was the Great Depression decade of the 1930s.
Exactly! They have to go out of their way to choose a period in which bonds beat stocks.

Define risk. It’s actually ‘risky’ to have 20-40% bonds because the poor returns leave you with less money and all the risks that entails.

I agree with the concept of sleeping better at night, but it’s a trade off. You won’t be thrilled dragging down your returns with bonds making 3% when the stock market goes up 18%, but it won’t keep you up at night as much as those times the stock market drops 20%. But A. It probably should keep you up at night watching all that missed opportunity. B. You won’t sleep well with a 20% drop whether you are 80% equities or 100%.

Also, I didn’t say 100% equities. I just said 0% bonds, but for the sake of argument we can go with 100% equities.

Really, I only wrote this to see what arguments people might have. I know long-standing rules of thumb favor a balanced portfolio, but the arguments come down to ‘it’s worth getting worse returns to have lower volatility because you’ll panic and sell low’. That’s an emotional not a mathematical argument.

I think the sequence of returns argument CAN be valid, but odds are like 90%, you’ll do better in stocks than a balanced portfolio. Are we playing the odds or not?
 
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Exactly! They have to go out of their way to choose a period in which bonds beat stocks.

Define risk. It’s actually ‘risky’ to have 20-40% bonds because the poor returns leave you with less money and all the risks that entails.

I agree with the concept of sleeping better at night, but it’s a trade off. You won’t be thrilled dragging down your returns with bonds making 3% when the stock market goes up 18%, but it won’t keep you up at night as much as those times the stock market drops 20%. But A. It probably should keep you up at night watching all that missed opportunity. B. You won’t sleep well with a 20% drop whether you are 80% equities or 100%.

Also, I didn’t say 100% equities. I just said 0% bonds, but for the sake of argument we can go with 100% equities.

Really, I only wrote this to see what arguments people might have. I know long-standing rules of thumb favor a balanced portfolio, but the arguments come down to ‘it’s worth getting worse returns to have lower volatility because you’ll panic and sell low’. That’s an emotional not a mathematical argument.

I think the sequence of returns argument CAN be valid, but odds are like 90%, you’ll do better in stocks than a balanced portfolio. Are we playing the odds or not?

Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice

For anyone who cares.

Not to mention outdated/suboptimal strategies such as “buying the dip,” individual stocks, or DCA which is forever popular on this forum.
 
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Exactly! They have to go out of their way to choose a period in which bonds beat stocks.

Define risk. It’s actually ‘risky’ to have 20-40% bonds because the poor returns leave you with less money and all the risks that entails.

I agree with the concept of sleeping better at night, but it’s a trade off. You won’t be thrilled dragging down your returns with bonds making 3% when the stock market goes up 18%, but it won’t keep you up at night as much as those times the stock market drops 20%. But A. It probably should keep you up at night watching all that missed opportunity. B. You won’t sleep well with a 20% drop whether you are 80% equities or 100%.

Also, I didn’t say 100% equities. I just said 0% bonds, but for the sake of argument we can go with 100% equities.

Really, I only wrote this to see what arguments people might have. I know long-standing rules of thumb favor a balanced portfolio, but the arguments come down to ‘it’s worth getting worse returns to have lower volatility because you’ll panic and sell low’. That’s an emotional not a mathematical argument.

I think the sequence of returns argument CAN be valid, but odds are like 90%, you’ll do better in stocks than a balanced portfolio. Are we playing the odds or not?
I have lived through several bear markets. I also lived through the 10 year period where stocks did very little in terms of returns. I disagree that having 20% of your portfolio in fixed income or bonds isn't a good idea. The bigger the portfolio the more important it is to have fixed income to serve as the ballast during storms. For example, a $5 million portfolio of 100% equities vs $4 million/$1 million. I would choose the latter every single time because I know how ugly things get when the bear sets in.
 
I have lived through several bear markets. I also lived through the 10 year period where stocks did very little in terms of returns. I disagree that having 20% of your portfolio in fixed income or bonds isn't a good idea. The bigger the portfolio the more important it is to have fixed income to serve as the ballast during storms. For example, a $5 million portfolio of 100% equities vs $4 million/$1 million. I would choose the latter every single time because I know how ugly things get when the bear sets in.
 
T bills.

Since ibond rates have been coming down I’ve been buying 8 week t bills. Paying about 5.25%, about 1% better than my savings account, and the interest isn’t subject to state tax.
 
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