Thoughts on STEP 1 score predictors?

[Tandoorichickensquad]

Hey folks, 5 weeks left in my step 1 prep. Ive gotten a 189 on NBME 21 (2 weeks ago) and a 190 on UWSA1 today. Needless to say I'm nervous. Using the 2019 score predictor (by BigDaddyAorta) im projected at a 212 (226-196 range with a 95% CI). Is this score predictor legit at all? Also, I felt like UWSA1 was much harder than NBME 21, and apparently its supposed to be the other way around; please let me know your thoughts on the matter. Nervous about even passing now. Any comments are appreciated. Thanks

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[FalconSlice]

Hey folks, 5 weeks left in my step 1 prep. Ive gotten a 189 on NBME 21 (2 weeks ago) and a 190 on UWSA1 today. Needless to say I'm nervous. Using the 2019 score predictor (by BigDaddyAorta) im projected at a 212 (226-196 range with a 95% CI). Is this score predictor legit at all? Also, I felt like UWSA1 was much harder than NBME 21, and apparently its supposed to be the other way around; please let me know your thoughts on the matter. Nervous about even passing now. Any comments are appreciated. Thanks

I think you might already know the answer to what you are asking, and what people here are going to say:

I would not rely on a score predictor to pass your Step I especially when you're consistently not obtaining passing scores on your practice exams.

Also 5 weeks is a smidge short of a life-time when it comes to dedicated Step 1 studying (assuming you're a US med student). You have plenty of time to turn that around. Here at our institution, we were required to take a practice Step 1 before our dedicated, and the final scores had no correlation with the litmus test/exam. Sit down and dissect why you are getting low scores (e.g., lacking knowledge-base? Silly mistakes? Did not understand the question? etc.), then formulate a thorough and well-thought out plan to tackle it.

Good luck!
FS

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

I think you might already know the answer to what you are asking, and what people here are going to say:

I would not rely on a score predictor to pass your Step I especially when you're consistently not obtaining passing scores on your practice exams.

Also 5 weeks is a smidge short of a life-time when it comes to dedicated Step 1 studying (assuming you're a US med student). You have plenty of time to turn that around. Here at our institution, we were required to take a practice Step 1 before our dedicated, and the final scores had no correlation with the litmus test/exam. Sit down and dissect why you are getting low scores (e.g., lacking knowledge-base? Silly mistakes? Did not understand the question? etc.), then formulate a thorough and well-thought out plan to tackle it.

Good luck!
FS

I guess 5 weeks is still a decent amount of time, I just could not help but panic seeing that score; hoping my test review tomorrow yeilds more clarity on the problem. Thank you for your advice!

 

[Goro]

Hey folks, 5 weeks left in my step 1 prep. Ive gotten a 189 on NBME 21 (2 weeks ago) and a 190 on UWSA1 today. Needless to say I'm nervous. Using the 2019 score predictor (by BigDaddyAorta) im projected at a 212 (226-196 range with a 95% CI). Is this score predictor legit at all? Also, I felt like UWSA1 was much harder than NBME 21, and apparently its supposed to be the other way around; please let me know your thoughts on the matter. Nervous about even passing now. Any comments are appreciated. Thanks

What was your pre-clinical GPA????

 

[Medical_studies]

I put the same thing last time you asked this question a month or so ago. basically the same answer still barely holds true. you can still do well, but you have to spend all your waking hours studying. like allow yourself to leave your study room a max of 2 hours in the day. Last time your response was basically to the effect of “I don't feel like it“. Then it's not surprising if you get the results and career of someone who doesn't feel like studying for the most important test of their life. I really don't want to read a third post 3 days before the test saying you have a 205 on your nbme. Just study, its such an easy thing to do.

 

[Dantes]

The data from the score predictor is based on an average step score in the 240s from people who submitted. It becomes significantly less accurate at outlier scores, so I would focus more on making sure your practice test scores are in the comfortably passing range first.

 

[bobthemonkey]

I think it overpredicts if you're scoring at the lower range. Most of the people who submits their score scored pretty high on average.

 

[Ho0v-man]

It’s totally reasonable to fail your first practice test. But have you seriously been studying for five weeks? Uwsa1 overpredicts for most people unless it’s changed since last year. So you’ve barely progressed since your baseline if you have at all. If you took this tomorrow you’d definitely fail and severely limit your career options. If reading this freaks you out...good! Stop screwing around bc you’ve basically wasted a standard dedicated already.

 

[Sea Otter]

Don’t take the test until you are scoring in the range of your goal score. And definitely do not take the test if you are not consistently passing your practice tests.

 

[NicMouse64]

I would say it will get you within 10 points if you are in the IQR. For all else beware.

 

[stickgirl390]

My UW’s both over predicted by 10+ points. I wouldn’t take a test with a CI that lands 1 pt beyond passing on the low end. Five weeks is still plenty of time tho, if you put the work in.

 

[Hippocrates II]

All you can do at this point is to grind out studying on your weakest subjects and continue to take practice tests. N=1, but the predictor for me was bang-on. I would not take step 1 in your current position, but you have 5 weeks left, so you can definitely move the needle in that time. Another N=1, but UW's practice tests both underpredicted me by 5-10 points, and NBMEs underpredicted me by 20+ points.

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

I put the same thing last time you asked this question a month or so ago. basically the same answer still barely holds true. you can still do well, but you have to spend all your waking hours studying. like allow yourself to leave your study room a max of 2 hours in the day. Last time your response was basically to the effect of “I don't feel like it“. Then it's not surprising if you get the results and career of someone who doesn't feel like studying for the most important test of their life. I really don't want to read a third post 3 days before the test saying you have a 205 on your nbme. Just study, its such an easy thing to do.

I have been studying but I'm not seeing the results I want. Just trying to figure out why I'm not seeing the progress I want, which is the most frustrating thing. I have been focusing mainly on doing questions and reviewing them, with a couple hours content review at the end of the day. Since that has not been working as well, I think I might switch to focusing more heavily on content before my next exam and see where that leaves me.

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

What was your pre-clinical GPA????

I was middle of the pack in my class

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

It’s totally reasonable to fail your first practice test. But have you seriously been studying for five weeks? Uwsa1 overpredicts for most people unless it’s changed since last year. So you’ve barely progressed since your baseline if you have at all. If you took this tomorrow you’d definitely fail and severely limit your career options. If reading this freaks you out...good! Stop screwing around bc you’ve basically wasted a standard dedicated already.

I truly have been studying. I've been doing 2 blocks UW a day, spending hours reviewing/making flash cards, then doing pathoma/sketchy at night. Maybe I have to focus on getting content out of the way first, then put more emphasis on questions. I'm working but not seeing the results, which is why I'm searching for a direction to focus my efforts.

 

[Goro]

I was middle of the pack in my class

Then you'll probably be middle of the pack in Step I score. Not a bad place to be.

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

Then you'll probably be middle of the pack in Step I score. Not a bad place to be.

That's what I thought going in, but my exam scores are telling a very different story. Im just trying to figure out what steps I need to take in my prep. I don't want this exam to ruin my future

 

[stickgirl390]

I have been studying but I'm not seeing the results I want. Just trying to figure out why I'm not seeing the progress I want, which is the most frustrating thing. I have been focusing mainly on doing questions and reviewing them, with a couple hours content review at the end of the day. Since that has not been working as well, I think I might switch to focusing more heavily on content before my next exam and see where that leaves me.

I forget which institution did the research, but somewhere posted data that practice questions are the most efficient way to increase your score. I think the research found something like.... every 100 questions raises your score by 1 pt? Or something like that. And I think every 1000 Anki cards raised your grade by 1 point. Content review/reading/watching videos wasn’t correlated with increasing score in an amount worth reporting.

In my experience, practice questions IS content review.

 

[Osteosaur]

My score predictor didn't work.

My full USMLE18 and my UWSA2 predicted it on the dot.

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

I forget which institution did the research, but somewhere posted data that practice questions are the most efficient way to increase your score. I think the research found something like.... every 100 questions raises your score by 1 pt? Or something like that. And I think every 1000 Anki cards raised your grade by 1 point. Content review/reading/watching videos wasn’t correlated with increasing score in an amount worth reporting.

In my experience, practice questions IS content review.

Thats what I read/thought as well, but since my scores aren't increasing by much I'm just trying to do something different and seeing if it helps. Cutting down to 40 Q a day until i finish my first pass of pathoma/sketchy. I also have been making flash cards for my UW wrongs so I'll start reviewing those.

 

[TelemarketingEnigma]

Thats what I read/thought as well, but since my scores aren't increasing by much I'm just trying to do something different and seeing if it helps. Cutting down to 40 Q a day until i finish my first pass of pathoma/sketchy. I also have been making flash cards for my UW wrongs so I'll start reviewing those.

How are you reviewing the UW questions? are you reading the answer explanations provided? those are key - just answering the questions alone isn't enough. Also make sure you're reading the explanations for the wrong answers you didn't select - I still learned/reviewed things that way

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

Hey folks, just realized I forgot to update this. Ended up with a 223. Took my test early January. Took UWSA2 1 week before and got a 224 and that was most predictive for me.

 

[NicMouse64]

Hey folks, just realized I forgot to update this. Ended up with a 223. Took my test early January. Took UWSA2 1 week before and got a 224 and that was most predictive for me.

My UWSA1 and NBME 18 were most predictive. Both said a 228 and that is what I got.

 

[FindersFee5]

Hey folks, just realized I forgot to update this. Ended up with a 223. Took my test early January. Took UWSA2 1 week before and got a 224 and that was most predictive for me.

Nice job! What do you think made the difference for you? Did you change how you were studying, or change your test taking strategy?

 

[aldol16]

Reddit score predictor was most accurate for me. Predicted my score to within +/- 1 point. 260+

 

[Tandoorichickensquad]

Nice job! What do you think made the difference for you? Did you change how you were studying, or change your test taking strategy?

I just started ripping through as many questions as I could, and I took hand written notes on facts that i thought were high yeild (from the explanations). I then reviewed the notes i took that day before bed, and reviewed notes from that week on the weekend. The X factor for me was definitely doing as many questions as I could and reviewing those.

 

[deleted1082375]

keep doing questions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!