To those worrying about interview invites - A (likely obvious) Prediction

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Gustavo dos Santos

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I've seen quite a few people worrying about pre-December interviews and having not received any despite good stats. I've been frequenting the medical school subreddit, looking at the OMFS match thread on SDN and seeing the same trend of applicants that aren't receiving as many residency interviews as you would've predicted given their scores.

I may just be preaching to the choir, but the fact that I keep seeing "No interviews, when do I start to worry?" posts popping up in the Bootcamp Facebook group, on SDN, and Reddit, hopefully this can provide some insight into what I think is likely happening this cycle.

So this portion is not my own but can be found online here about halfway down the page. It gives insight into what is going on with residency interviews this year and can be applied to medical and dental school too.

I APPLIED TO 70 PROGRAMS AND RECEIVED 3 INTERVIEW OFFERS. A CLASSMATE APPLIED TO 50 PROGRAMS, GOT INTERVIEW OFFERS EVERYWHERE, AND NOW HAS 42 INTERVIEWS SCHEDULED. WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT INTERVIEW HOARDING? WILL YOU PLEASE ADVOCATE FOR INTERVIEW CAPS?

Folks, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Remember, even before COVID-19, we had a distributional problem with interviews, with 12% of applicants taking 50% of interview slots in specialties like internal medicine or general surgery. So back in May, just after the virtual interview season was announced, I predicted that the lower opportunity/financial costs of virtual interviews mixed with the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to highly-qualified applicants choosing to “overinterview.”

Obviously, I wasn’t the only person to predict this. Back in July, the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) – an organization with a knowledgeable leadership team and a Nobel laureate economist on retainer – quietly added an extra round to this year’s Supplemental Offer and Acceptance Program (SOAP). They didn’t do it for funsies – they did it because they thought we were gonna need it.

Meanwhile, many other students, residents, and faculty tried to sound the alarms and get people thinking about the possibility of capping interviews.

One clever study used data from last year’s OB/GYN Match to predict how virtual interviews might change the number of interviews that various groups applicants received this season.

To do this, they divided last year’s applicants into two groups – those who received 12 or more interview offers, and those who received fewer than 12. Then, they modeled what would happen if those applicants were interviewing this season. They assumed that, unlike last year’s Match, when travel costs and the realities of the time-space continuum provided a natural limit on the number of interviews that an applicant would accept, applicants this year would choose to accept all of the virtual interviews they were offered.

The results were striking.

Without interview caps, the type of applicant who completed 12+ interviews in 2019-2020 was predicted to complete around 19 interviews in 2020-2021.

But when “top” applicants fill more interview positions, fewer are left over for applicants who don’t look as good on paper. Without any changes to the system, the model predicted that the average applicant who completed <12 interviews last year would receive an average of less than one interview apiece this year.

Interestingly, under the modeling assumptions the authors used, encouraging programs to offer 20% more interview slots didn’t help. Under this scenario, the top applicants completed an average of 22.9 interviews, and the less polished received still received just 0.8 interviews apiece.

Only capping interviews resulted in a more equitable distribution of interview offers. And if interviews were capped at the same time that programs increased the number of interview offers available, then both groups of applicants received an average of 12 interview offers apiece.


TL;DR A small pool of high stats applicants is 'over-interviewing' this year because there are no travel/hotel costs associated with interviewing this year and no interview cap

For dental school, we obviously dont use a match system so things will turn out a little different than the post-match scramble that residencies will see this year, but the same principles apply.

This year was completely different from previous years just in terms of interviews. Dental schools seem to have years of application and interview data that tells them how many students they need to interview to fill a class. Midwestern-AZ knows that they extend a lot of December offers only to have people choose cheaper options, so they are comfortable extending post-December interviews in October because their data shows that they dont fill their class in December. Its a science to them, a numbers game. That data is significantly less accurate this year (yeah this is conjecture, I dont have data to back this) because previous models dont account for people accepting almost every interview they receive. In previous years, schools could weed out students who weren't willing to pay $500+ for plane tickets/hotel and likely weren't as committed to the program simply by sending them an interview invite and having that student decline. That isn't the case this year.

This is also anecdotal, but I received 10 interviews this year and took everyone. If this was a normal cycle I would've been willing to pay to travel to 3 of those schools plus my state school, honestly I wouldve only had the ability and time to attend 5 max given work and school schedule too. But being the neurotic pre-dental student that I am, I accepted every interview because more interviews means a better chance of getting an acceptance, Right?.....RIght!? I guarantee this is the case for a lot of students.

This has led to a pool of high stats, highly competitive applicants essentially 'hoarding' dental school interviews. Come December 15 they're likely to receive multiple acceptances, maybe more than they would have in previous years because they attended more interviews, only to turn them all down but their top choice.

Last year, when X SCHOOL OF DENTISTRY accepted 90 kids on the first day, 65 put down deposits. This year that number is likely to be significantly lower. Their formula of interview 300 kids to fill a class of 100 will likely be way off and require them to interview many more students post-December.

This may or may not be what actually happens. This whole situation would've been mitigated by some forethought on the adcoms part and increasing their pre-December interview count or being extra judicious when reviewing applicants and their commitment to their school this year. I'm betting most schools recognized the problem and are waiting to see what the numbers say for post-December interviews.

I think its pretty safe to predict a larger than normal post-December interview wave, and significantly more waitlist movement. Only time will tell.
 
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It been for two months, anyone waiting for interview invites as me

submitted in late june and have been waiting since then (3/8 rejections, 5 no responses).. it's been really hard to answer anticipating friends and family's question "how're dental school apps going"
 
submitted in late june and have been waiting since then (3/8 rejections, 5 no responses).. it's been really hard to answer anticipating friends and family's question "how're dental school apps going"
I am sorry to heard that too. I submitted August. 6 rejection, 8no responses. Yeah I have same situation as you, how school going.....
 
You're not the only one! Applied to 10 schools, rejected from 3, and ghosted from 7 😕 Kinda losing hope considering how late it is in the cycle, but you never know. Just trying to stay busy and start prepping for next cycle if need be. Best of luck!
 
submitted in late june and have been waiting since then (3/8 rejections, 5 no responses).. it's been really hard to answer anticipating friends and family's question "how're dental school apps going"
I definitely know that feeling. Just try not to worry about it, the people that truly care about you won't judge you. The ones that do... aren't worth your time lol.
 
You're not the only one! Applied to 10 schools, rejected from 3, and ghosted from 7 😕 Kinda losing hope considering how late it is in the cycle, but you never know. Just trying to stay busy and start prepping for next cycle if need be. Best of luck!
I applied to 14 in June but my test was cancelled until the end of august and didn’t get verified until mid September. I got 4 rejections and hadn’t hear from any other school until last week I got an interview!! I swear when I stopped obsessively checking my email, that’s when I got one. You got this!
 
I applied to 14 in June but my test was cancelled until the end of august and didn’t get verified until mid September. I got 4 rejections and hadn’t hear from any other school until last week I got an interview!! I swear when I stopped obsessively checking my email, that’s when I got one. You got this!

Thanks for the reassurance! Just kinda getting nervous with how late it is and that I still haven't heard word from the majority of schools. I applied to mainly private ones too, so I'm not sure what to really think. I sent out letters of interest a couple weeks ago to those schools and have gotten responses from their admissions offices, but other than that it's been silent.
 
I applied to 14 in June but my test was cancelled until the end of august and didn’t get verified until mid September. I got 4 rejections and hadn’t hear from any other school until last week I got an interview!! I swear when I stopped obsessively checking my email, that’s when I got one. You got this!
Happy for you, I still haven't receive any yet. Wish you all the best in your interview
 
Hi guys, I got rejected from three dental schools already. I am assuming the rest of the schools (about 6 others) are going to do the same. It really sucks, but I am not giving up. I graduated with my bachelor's in May of 2020, 3.4 overall gpa and 3.3science gpa, my dat was low AA 19. I had a committee letter, lots of volunteer hours outside of the dental field, I had both shadowing and working experience as a dental assistant for a year and I was also the president of the pre-dental club in college, unfortunately, this was not enough. I have been working full-time as a dental assistant since last July at a dental company, but my question now is should I do a post bacc or a master's program to raise my gpa and re-take the DAT? Or can I just re-take the DAT and improve my score and that will be sufficient enough to get me an interview for the next cycle. Any advice/suggestion is appreciated, thanks!
 
Hi guys, I got rejected from three dental schools already. I am assuming the rest of the schools (about 6 others) are going to do the same. It really sucks, but I am not giving up. I graduated with my bachelor's in May of 2020, 3.4 overall gpa and 3.3science gpa, my dat was low AA 19. I had a committee letter, lots of volunteer hours outside of the dental field, I had both shadowing and working experience as a dental assistant for a year and I was also the president of the pre-dental club in college, unfortunately, this was not enough. I have been working full-time as a dental assistant since last July at a dental company, but my question now is should I do a post bacc or a master's program to raise my gpa and re-take the DAT? Or can I just re-take the DAT and improve my score and that will be sufficient enough to get me an interview for the next cycle. Any advice/suggestion is appreciated, thanks!
My friend had virtually the same stats and same exact involvement. It’s uncanny really. But the only difference was they scored a 22AA/23TS on the DAT. They applied to 14 schools and interviewed at 7. Accepted at 5. They were not URM.

you absolutely do NOT need a post bacc or masters. Do not waste your money. Your time and money is best served purchasing materials and studying for the DAT. Grinding for 10-12 weeks or however long you need is still much better than 1-2 years of a masters program and 10s of thousands dollars wasted.

id recommend you start studying for the DAT now so you can take it asap and have your app verified early. Aim for 21+ And don’t take it unless you are confident you can achieve that. Your grades are below average/average so a stellar DAT (23+) will open up your options considerably and offset the GPA to a degree

also examine your PS and determine if it could use improvement. I’d probably rewrite it a bit and incorporate new details/stories that substantiate your passion for dentistry. This serves 2 purposes: it shows 1) your maturity as a candidate and 2) that you didn’t simply reuse the same draft. Understanding and addressing your weaknesses shows a lot of self awareness and initiative which is critical for dental school and life in general. Spend a lot of time on this and make sure it is perfect.

once you are ready to apply, research schools that are in line with your stats. Apply strategically.

if you just do this I’m confident you’ll get in somewhere.
 
My friend had virtually the same stats and same exact involvement. It’s uncanny really. But the only difference was they scored a 22AA/23TS on the DAT. They applied to 14 schools and interviewed at 7. Accepted at 5. They were not URM.

you absolutely do NOT need a post bacc or masters. Do not waste your money. Your time and money is best served purchasing materials and studying for the DAT. Grinding for 10-12 weeks or however long you need is still much better than 1-2 years of a masters program and 10s of thousands dollars wasted.

id recommend you start studying for the DAT now so you can take it asap and have your app verified early. Aim for 21+ And don’t take it unless you are confident you can achieve that. Your grades are below average/average so a stellar DAT (23+) will open up your options considerably and offset the GPA to a degree

also examine your PS and determine if it could use improvement. I’d probably rewrite it a bit and incorporate new details/stories that substantiate your passion for dentistry. This serves 2 purposes: it shows 1) your maturity as a candidate and 2) that you didn’t simply reuse the same draft. Understanding and addressing your weaknesses shows a lot of self awareness and initiative which is critical for dental school and life in general. Spend a lot of time on this and make sure it is perfect.

once you are ready to apply, research schools that are in line with your stats. Apply strategically.

if you just do this I’m confident you’ll get in somewhere.
Thank you so much for your advice! I really appreciate it. I’m going to start accumulating my study materials ASAP so I can utilize my time efficiently. I am determined to get a 23+ on the DAT this time. And I definitely will change and improve my personal statement. Thanks again!
 
Hi guys, I got rejected from three dental schools already. I am assuming the rest of the schools (about 6 others) are going to do the same. It really sucks, but I am not giving up. I graduated with my bachelor's in May of 2020, 3.4 overall gpa and 3.3science gpa, my dat was low AA 19. I had a committee letter, lots of volunteer hours outside of the dental field, I had both shadowing and working experience as a dental assistant for a year and I was also the president of the pre-dental club in college, unfortunately, this was not enough. I have been working full-time as a dental assistant since last July at a dental company, but my question now is should I do a post bacc or a master's program to raise my gpa and re-take the DAT? Or can I just re-take the DAT and improve my score and that will be sufficient enough to get me an interview for the next cycle. Any advice/suggestion is appreciated, thanks!
retake dat and apply early. apply broadly and wisely...
 
Hi guys, I got rejected from three dental schools already. I am assuming the rest of the schools (about 6 others) are going to do the same. It really sucks, but I am not giving up. I graduated with my bachelor's in May of 2020, 3.4 overall gpa and 3.3science gpa, my dat was low AA 19. I had a committee letter, lots of volunteer hours outside of the dental field, I had both shadowing and working experience as a dental assistant for a year and I was also the president of the pre-dental club in college, unfortunately, this was not enough. I have been working full-time as a dental assistant since last July at a dental company, but my question now is should I do a post bacc or a master's program to raise my gpa and re-take the DAT? Or can I just re-take the DAT and improve my score and that will be sufficient enough to get me an interview for the next cycle. Any advice/suggestion is appreciated, thanks!
what schools did you apply to?
 
i have a lower gpa than you, same dat and less involvement and i recently received an nyu interview. i would suggest sending a letter of interest to them.
Congrats! When are you interviewing? Okay thank you, I’ll send them an email over the weekend.
 
next week! i hope you hear from them!!
Awesome, good luck! I hope you get in.
Thank you 🙂 I have a quick question, did you address the letter of interest to the dean or to the admissions committee?
 
Awesome, good luck! I hope you get in.
Thank you 🙂 I have a quick question, did you address the letter of interest to the dean or to the admissions committee?
thank you! i did not send them a letter of interest but i heard they like them. for the ones i sent to other schools i addressed the admissions committee.
 
Hi guys, I got rejected from three dental schools already. I am assuming the rest of the schools (about 6 others) are going to do the same. It really sucks, but I am not giving up. I graduated with my bachelor's in May of 2020, 3.4 overall gpa and 3.3science gpa, my dat was low AA 19. I had a committee letter, lots of volunteer hours outside of the dental field, I had both shadowing and working experience as a dental assistant for a year and I was also the president of the pre-dental club in college, unfortunately, this was not enough. I have been working full-time as a dental assistant since last July at a dental company, but my question now is should I do a post bacc or a master's program to raise my gpa and re-take the DAT? Or can I just re-take the DAT and improve my score and that will be sufficient enough to get me an interview for the next cycle. Any advice/suggestion is appreciated, thanks!
I am going to do the same retake my DAY and do more volunteer work
 
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