You are right. The numbers don't lie. From NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match.
2005 (NB: This is the only data available)
US-MD applicants: 681
All other applicants: 576
Total positions offered: 1032
Number of applicants per position: 1.32
2007
US-MD applicants: 648
US-MD matched: 626
US-MD match rate: 96.6%
All other applicants: 671
All other applicants matched: 326
All other applicants match rate: 48.6%
Total positions offered: 1073
US-MD applicants per position offered: 0.60
Number of all other applicants per position not taken by US-MD: 1.5
2009
US-MD applicants: 681
US-MD matched: 643
US-MD match rate: 94.4%
All other applicants: 882
All other applicants matched: 371
All other applicants match rate: 42.1%
Total positions offered: 1097
US-MD applicants per position offered: 0.62
Number of all other applicants per position not taken by US-MD: 1.94
2011
US-MD applicants: 658
US-MD matched: 630
US-MD match rate: 95.7%
All other applicants: 939
All other applicants matched: 402
All other applicants match rate: 42.8%
Total positions offered: 1097
US-MD applicants per position offered: 0.59
Number of all other applicants per position not taken by US-MD: 2.01
The bolded statistics are the relevant ones, I think. What I see is a gradual (but meaningful) decline in the match rate for non-US MD applicants. I also see a marked increase in the number of non-US MD applicants seeking the spots not taken by US MD applicants.
The relevance of that last statistic is contingent upon the assumption that programs, as a rule, prefer US MD applicants rather osteopaths or FMG/IMG applicants. This, at least, seems consistent with your assertion, Vistaril.
The numbers plainly show that it has already gotten significantly harder for non-US MD applicants to match into psychiatry programs. That appears to based not in an increase of US-MD applicants, but rather an increase in the number of IMG/FMG/DO applicants trying for psychiatry residency.
So, we can agree that psychiatry is not more competitive than in the past for US MD applicants, but it is demonstrably more competitive for all other applicants.
does 2 + 2 = 5 in your world?
The only thing that really matters here is the # of imgs who match into psych each year and the # of amgs who match into psych each year...
you attempting to use # of overall imgs APPLYING is ridiculous and irrelevant. The only thing that matters is # of spots available for imgs, which will roughly equal the total number of slots - number of amgs who want to do psych
If 10,000 imgs apply for psych next year, you're still going to have the same # of open slots for them. And you're still going to have the same number of imgs in programs that amgs are working around. Whether 400 got left in india or 4000 got left back in india isn't really relevant.
Here are the only data that matter from the 3 meaningful years you cite:
626-643-630
this is the number of amgs matching in psych.....as you can see, no trend. A slight bump followed by a slight decrease.
326-371-402
this, otoh, is actually a *small* trend going in the oopposite direction of what you are arguing. MORE imgs entering psych.
Sheeesh, you arent very good at this numbers thing.