I am a PGY1 and just recently returned from mid-year, thus I feel I can speak to what the numbers will be like. Last year I did not match and scrambled. If I remember correctly there were about 6000-7000 residency applicants for 2500-3000 spots. About 800 spots did not match. Thus 3000 potential residents were scambling for 800 spots or a ratio of about 3.75 applicants to spots.
Based on what I saw this year at the residency showcases the gaps are only going to get bigger. I would expect somewhere between 7000-12000 residency applicants to 2800-3200 residency spots. Lets say that 600 residency positions don't match, thus the best ratios for scambling will be 3800 to 600 or 6.3 applicants per scramble position to a worst ratio of 8800 to 600 or 14 applicants to each scramble position.
What I am telling people is be ready to scramble. Have your three letters of recommendation in electronic format. Have a copy of your transcripts in electronic form, an updated letter of intent, and an updated CV ready to go. Basically have everything required of an applicant ready to go.
When the list becomes available already know which places you are interested in applying to and send them your app packet as soon as you find out they have availability. Some places filled their unmatched spots within 4 hours of the match results others required onsite interviews, while others did phone interviews.
I would also recommend interviewing at all locations you are interested in because many of the residencies picked scrambling residents who had interviewed with them. On a side note I find this interesting because either the resident didn't try to match the program or the program didn't try to match the candidate. So why are you willing to hire this person now Either they didn't like you or you did not like them.
If you can't move I would suggest putting in apps to the residencies close to where you live and interviewing with them. If you don't match then scamble with them. If you still don't match either expand the area your willing to work or firgure out another way to achieve your career goals.
Lastly, be ready to accept your fourth or fifth choice because by the time your 1st-3rd choices finally make a decision about who they are going to interview the 4th and 5th choices will have been filled and you may not get on with choices 1-3.
DR