Usmleworld percentiles

[Binary]

Hey all-

So, the general consensus I've been reading from SDN is that if you have a 75% cumulative average on usmleworld, you are definitely in the ballpark for a 250+ or even a 260+.... however, a 75% cumulative average on usmleworld is only in the low 80th percentile according to the score report. That would seem to imply that 15-20% of usmleworld customers are in the ballpark to get a boards score that is 2 standard deviations above the national mean. This seems difficult to reconcile. What are your thoughts?

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[soonereng]

Hey all-

So, the general consensus I've been reading from SDN is that if you have a 75% cumulative average on usmleworld, you are definitely in the ballpark for a 250+ or even a 260+.... however, a 75% cumulative average on usmleworld is only in the low 80th percentile according to the score report. That would seem to imply that 15-20% of usmleworld customers are in the ballpark to get a boards score that is 2 standard deviations above the national mean. This seems difficult to reconcile. What are your thoughts?

The percentiles don't mean crap. All of those numbers are bad since you have people who redo questions, do them in tutor mode which may help them with another question in the set later, etc. If you're making a 75% on UWorld just know that you are in great shape for Step 1.

 

[TMP-SMX]

I assume you mean percent as of 75% of the questions correct. 75th percentile is slightly under 70% overall.

I would think that the timed tests using the extra exams would hold more weight but that's pretty solid if you did all the questions once. UWorld is tough.

 

[Noeljan]

The percentiles don't mean crap. All of those numbers are bad since you have people who redo questions, do them in tutor mode which may help them with another question in the set later, etc. If you're making a 75% on UWorld just know that you are in great shape for Step 1.

I sure hope it holds true My ave is 75% and I got a predicted 255 a week and a half ago on 150 free questions. I feel like I am always guessing though. This week I have not studied much but finishing off world and my aves have been 75-90 though I feel like I know less than when I started studying \. What should I do in these last three weeks?

 

[Noeljan]

I assume you mean percent as of 75% of the questions correct. 75th percentile is slightly under 70% overall.

I would think that the timed tests using the extra exams would hold more weight but that's pretty solid if you did all the questions once. UWorld is tough.

I feel like it easier than the nbmes though (unlike most people seem to think) because i can think my way through more on world NBMEs seem to consist of random know it or not facts (although my scores are correlating with eachother on both)

 

[kdburton]

I sure hope it holds true My ave is 75% and I got a predicted 255 a week and a half ago on 150 free questions. I feel like I am always guessing though. This week I have not studied much but finishing off world and my aves have been 75-90 though I feel like I know less than when I started studying \. What should I do in these last three weeks?

I think the point was that if you're doing them random, timed, etc like the real test then it may be a good predictor. If you're doing them on tutor mode or you're re-doing old questions and thus getting more questions correctly then you're giving yourself a false sense of security. Overall my averages on UW have correlated with the projected scores based on NBMEs (i.e. if i take an NBME its pretty close to the predicted score on clinicalreview[dot]com when I take into account the last 10 blocks of Qs on UW). I've heard several people in past years say that the Free 150 is a good predictor of their score, but I feel like it must be easier this year or something because I took it the other day and it predicted 250+, which is higher than what I scored on a recent NBME and also higher than what my UW percents are projecting I think. All in all I guess it doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not going to change my test date though haha. IInstead of taking any more "diagnostics" I'm reading through FA for the first time starting today (and my test is next Thursday!!!)

 

[Noeljan]

I think the point was that if you're doing them random, timed, etc like the real test then it may be a good predictor. If you're doing them on tutor mode or you're re-doing old questions and thus getting more questions correctly then you're giving yourself a false sense of security. Overall my averages on UW have correlated with the projected scores based on NBMEs (i.e. if i take an NBME its pretty close to the predicted score on clinicalreview[dot]com when I take into account the last 10 blocks of Qs on UW). I've heard several people in past years say that the Free 150 is a good predictor of their score, but I feel like it must be easier this year or something because I took it the other day and it predicted 250+, which is higher than what I scored on a recent NBME and also higher than what my UW percents are projecting I think. All in all I guess it doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not going to change my test date though haha. IInstead of taking any more "diagnostics" I'm reading through FA for the first time starting today (and my test is next Thursday!!!)

Ya Ive been doing them all random timed too, so I really really hope the correlations hold true!! Although I feel like I dont know anything and havent studied as much as I would have liked. Dont sell yourself short on the free 150. I dont know why it would vary that much from one year to the next. Everyone I talked to said it predicted within a few points. I was also pointing out my Uworld ave of 75% to show that is seems to correlate with scoring a 250 or better (which i got a 255 on the 150)

 

[Noeljan]

I think the point was that if you're doing them random, timed, etc like the real test then it may be a good predictor. If you're doing them on tutor mode or you're re-doing old questions and thus getting more questions correctly then you're giving yourself a false sense of security. Overall my averages on UW have correlated with the projected scores based on NBMEs (i.e. if i take an NBME its pretty close to the predicted score on clinicalreview[dot]com when I take into account the last 10 blocks of Qs on UW). I've heard several people in past years say that the Free 150 is a good predictor of their score, but I feel like it must be easier this year or something because I took it the other day and it predicted 250+, which is higher than what I scored on a recent NBME and also higher than what my UW percents are projecting I think. All in all I guess it doesn't really matter at this point because I'm not going to change my test date though haha. IInstead of taking any more "diagnostics" I'm reading through FA for the first time starting today (and my test is next Thursday!!!)

I also have had improvements from the start, started with 70 on the school's test, scored 231 three weeks out on NBME 4, 1.5 weeks ago 255 so they seem to make sense
good luck you are going to do great!!!!

 

[Cirrus83]

Good to hear that you're scoring so well now Noeljan...can't believe you take this after me. I'm so behind and definitely not scoring mid 70's random, just broke 70% in a specific subject test but I definitely got a boost because when you're doing renal and 4 out of 5 answers have to do with other organ systems it's kinda obvious which one is right.

 

[soonereng]

Overall my averages on UW have correlated with the projected scores based on NBMEs (i.e. if i take an NBME its pretty close to the predicted score on clinicalreview[dot]com when I take into account the last 10 blocks of Qs on UW). I've heard several people in past years say that the Free 150 is a good predictor of their score, but I feel like it must be easier this year or something because I took it the other day and it predicted 250+, which is higher than what I scored on a recent NBME and also higher than what my UW percents are projecting I think.

Well just remember that everything has an error band. My 150 gave me the 255 score estimate as well, but I know that was probably a high one and I'm closer to the 240-245 range (although I haven't taken an NBME in the last 2.5 weeks to confirm).

 

[ZagDoc]

There's two equations floating out there to "predict" your score from UWorld:

Projected Score = (% Correct x 2.4) + 84
Projected Score = (% Correct x 1.92) + 106.4

First one predicts slightly higher than the second. It's generally considered that projecting your score off your last 600-700 Q's is probably a bit more accurate than cumulative % correct.

Don't know how much stock I'd put in them, since UW is generally designed to be a learning tool, not an assessment tool. I'd stick to the NBMEs.

 

[Nematode]

Have most people's scores traditionally fallen in the range of those two formulas though? If not then the formulas are pretty useless. Just wondering.

 

[RisingSun]

Have most people's scores traditionally fallen in the range of those two formulas though? If not then the formulas are pretty useless. Just wondering.

Because I really don't want to do yet another UWorld block, I browsed through a few pages of the 2009 experiences thread and here is what I found. Granted these are numbers that people have reported so there is no way to verify them. I used the (UWorld correct% * 2.4) + 84 formula.

UWorld% Predicted Actual
68% 247 251
53% 211 195
55% 216 225
62% 232 254
70% 252 247

So, as you can see, the numbers are not too reliable but probably within the ballpark of what one may score, give or take 10 or so points.

HTH.

 

[Nematode]

Because I really don't want to do yet another UWorld block, I browsed through a few pages of the 2009 experiences thread and here is what I found. Granted these are numbers that people have reported so there is no way to verify them. I used the (UWorld correct% * 2.4) + 84 formula.

UWorld% Predicted Actual
68% 247 251
53% 211 195
55% 216 225
62% 232 254
70% 252 247

So, as you can see, the numbers are not too reliable but probably within the ballpark of what one may score, give or take 10 or so points.

HTH.

Actually that seems pretty solid. Thanks for the numbers. I figured id add the other formula in too.

UWorld% Predicted (2.4x) Predicted 1.92x) Actual
68% 247 237 251
53% 211 208 195
55% 216 212 225
62% 232 225 254
70% 252 240 247

 

[512TA]

Actually that seems pretty solid. Thanks for the numbers. I figured id add the other formula in too.

UWorld% Predicted (2.4x) Predicted 1.92x) Actual
68% 247 237 251
53% 211 208 195
55% 216 212 225
62% 232 225 254
70% 252 240 247

i know this guy who has been saying that he scores a 82% on UW and 245(estimate 3 digit score) in form6 of NBME. if i take into acoount what you have mentioned then that person scoring 82% on UW should be scoring in high 265+. that person claimes that form 6 of NBME is much tougher than UW. is that true?

 

[ENThopeful]

I feel like it easier than the nbmes though (unlike most people seem to think) because i can think my way through more on world NBMEs seem to consist of random know it or not facts (although my scores are correlating with eachother on both)

yea i really have to agree with you here. i feel like i just got kicked in the chest when I do NBMEs, I have no idea what material these questions are based from. UWorld is more twist on pathology that you have to think about, NBME Qs are like "what type of enzyme degrades pus from pneumonia"..