Personal experience--M4 applying this cycle, DR as well as IR integrated. Interview invites for IR and DR at MGH and Yale, waitlist for IR and DR at UCSF, silent reject from BWH. IR/DR invites at most top tier spots with the exception of 2 other rejects (Penn, Northwestern). Interviewing at like 20 programs because, well, IR.
~260 on step1/2
Top quartile of class but not AOA
Extensive research (prestigious fellowship, 6 pubs with several high impact, multiple book chapters, dozens of abstracts and presentations). Research was not in rads.
No away rotations, but did both IR and DR rotations at my home institution.
That's n=1 though, there's wide variation. People with lower scores get better interviews, people with better scores get screwed--there's definitely some element of luck, non-numeric aspects of your application, etc. As said above Yale will be easier to crack than the others up there. If you're doing IR, UCSF probably the toughest of the bunch as their DR and IR training are both very highly regarded; for DR, UCSF and MGH are basically the perennial top 2 so those will be your most difficult. Also, not that you said do, but don't think those 4 programs are head and shoulders above the rest. You'd probably be set up just as well doing residency at NYU, Stanford, UCLA, UMich, Wash U, UWash, Penn, JHU, Duke and a bunch of other places.
Also to echo
@Naijaba--University of Washington is really, really, really awesome. Starting to actually get going on the trail a lot of his takes really resonate, he wrote a really good guide to the whole process.
Best of luck!