I've already run the numbers in a post I made months ago on a comparable $3.3 million dollar home. It becomes a no brainer to buy in this area (in my humble opinion) if:
1) the housing market finally flattens in the next 5 years
2) interest rates go down below 4% again
3) we plan to stay here 20-30 years
This is just for 15 years, if the conditions above are met, buying becomes more prudent. Note numbers a little different as we moved since that post (but still the principal doesn't change).
Scenario 1 - Rent the house:
-I rent the house for $6850 a month for 15 years. With utilities I pay $7500. Cost of living adjustment 3% a year. I spend $1,4000,000 to rent this house for 15 years.
-We take that $600,000 down payment and put it in VTI/VOO. Each month, I take the rest of the money I would have been paying the mortgage with ($21,000 - $7500 = $13,500) and just invest that too. In an ideal world I get 8% ROI in the market. That is $6,500,000 after 15 years.
=>So we netted $6,500,000 - $1,400,000 = $5,100,000.
Scenario 2 - Buy the house:
-I take every call shift possible, 1099 side gigs, wife inherits money and somehow we piecemeal our way to buying this house for $3,000,000. We put 20% or $600,000 down and take out a $2,400,000 mortgage at 7.2%.
-After $600,000 down, I am paying $21,000 a month for mortgage, utiliteis, property tax, and insurance. We live extremely uncomfortably paycheck to paycheck.
-If we sell in 15 years with a 5% return on investment each year the house should net $6,200,000.
-We will owe the bank $1,800,000 to pay off the rest of the mortgage and the realtor 5% ($300,000) for selling the house.
=>So we netted $4,100,000 (not including any maintenance, repairs, renovations during that 15 years).
So the difference is $1,000,000 over 15 years (probably closer to $1,500,000 once you factor in repairs/renovations).