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Meaningless label.....I declare "Shenanigans!"
What do I need to know about coronavirus?
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I dunno...WHO has avoided using the designation and has pointedly announced that the term pandemic not to be used...so for them to now use the term?
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The H1N1 was a pandemic as well. I don't think it's actually helpful, and gives the news another talking point to generate more mass hysteria.
No, "mass hysteria" was the 737 Max stories. The chances of being injured in the plane was less than 0.00001%, and with competent pilots you could probably add a few more zeros to that.
Or the chances of being a victim of a violent crime.
Or I saw - and have not independently verified - that more Americans were killed in the last 20 years from piranha bites than Islamic terrorists.
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So, how bad is the situation in Seattle? Is it exactly like Italy where they’re turning ORs into makeshift ICUs and giving up on treating anybody over age 65?
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How are you guys with testing for patients? Is it easily accessible and done now? Are you only testing the rly sick?
I think in the USA we will see higher mortality than south Korea but lower numbers cause we appear to be barely testing.
I think in the USA we will see higher mortality than south Korea but lower numbers cause we appear to be barely testing.
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Yeah the complete lack of testing availability is a pretty serious letdown and we are more on a path to italy than we are on a path to South Korea.
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Can call the state and they’ll do one with a neg path panel if they feel like it. Turnaround there is 1 day.
Can send to LabCorp, results supposedly in 3. They gotta be getting slammed though.
Can send to LabCorp, results supposedly in 3. They gotta be getting slammed though.
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Yeah, posts like this are not going to age well.
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Hey man, where and when you choose to willfully and wantonly exchange bodily fluids is your business...
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Word on the street is it's very bad, they just aren't letting on. This virus is most contagious when it's incubating and asymptomatic. We need to make like Italy now with a lockdown. Also, it's worse in young people than folks realize. Post-mortems are coming out of Seattle left and right for young ARDS/PNA patients showing COVID.
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I kind of want a recession too so i can buy stocks for a discount.
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Probably Pakistan will take the trophy for the last case of poliio. But i will say, the government is truly fighting hard on that front with door to door vaccinations of all children in the country.
It's actually a pretty good country to live in though. Amazing food, beautiful northern areas, extremely hospitable people if you ever show up as a foreigner. Consider going to kaghan naran, hunza valley, skardu in the northern parts of the country if you want natural beauty. Lahore if you like big cities with a history and lots of examples of Mughal architecture. Or moenjodaro harappa if you want to check out ruins from some of the most ancient civilizations of the world (2500 BC).
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Actually, the outlier for polio is western central Africa (at least, per the CIA). However, you may quite very well be correct in that. Local warlords in Africa say that it is "white men trying to poison you".
But, I gotta be honest here - I'm a white, lapsed Catholic, Polish/Scots-Irish guy, and you have sold me TOTALLY on Pakistan!! Forget you - I am going to retire there!
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There are tv ads telling people to get vaccinated sponsored by the government. Literally once a year, you get government workers knock on your door and ask if they are any children in the house that need a polio vaccine - if yes, they get the polio drops. They are genuinely trying. And should hopefully get there before Western Africa.
On a side note:
All you need is 30k a year to live like a king/queen.
30k annual = $2500 monthly = 375000 Rs monthly.
Monthly rent - 100,000 ($630) for a 3-4 bedroom furnished home in the best areas of Lahore. Obviously cheaper options are available. The northern parts are dirt cheap. These are prices in the 10th largest city of the world.
Food cost - 30,000-50,000 ($200-300) if you're eating lamb, beef, chicken every day.
Utilities - 30-50000 per month. ($200-300) Mostly electricity since it's expensive.
Cook - 15000 per month ($100)
Maid for cleaning 5 days a week, a couple hours a day - 10000 per month ($63)
Driver - 15000 per month ($100). Nobody should be driving in Lahore traffic themselves lol.
And you still have half of that $2500 left for whatever else you want for entertainment ($7 for a steak, $4 for a movie). Shopping is the only variable that can be as expensive as you want. Healthcare is pretty cheap. My 4 stitches on my finger cost $0.33 a decade ago. My dad's cabg was $1500. Most middle/upper middle class families live on $1000/month. And then there is the lower middle class and lower class (more than half the country) who have a fairly difficult financial life.
A fairly new doctor with 2-3 years of experience basically makes $1000/month salary. My American board certified psychiatrist mom, Vanderbilt trained, makes $650/month for 2 days a week at a medical school lol. So $2500/month is a lot of money.
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D
deleted109597
This is criminally underrated. Best comment in the forum this year by far.
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Dude, sold!!
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LMAO at "total lockdown". Not possible in a country the size of the US with a population of 400 million. Probably would be unconstitutional as well. My understanding is that the law states anyone forcibly quarantined has the right to a hearing within 2 days.
Complete nonsense.
Anyone see the first few episodes of "Fear The Walking Dead"?
Also please post stats on young people who are getting ARDS and dying in Seattle from this virus.
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Since it seems like South Korea has had the most organized response to this, I tend to think they have what is likely to be the best data of all the affected countries. Table 2 is of particular interest.
Basically under 60 seems to have a similar death rate to flu, except that no kids have died yet (but its a pretty small N so may not mean much). Its the over 60 crowd that's getting clobbered by this.
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GeneralVeers, I lurk a lot and post a little. I always appreciate your contributions to the forums, and if I don't always align with you, I respect what you have to say.
Your comments in this thread are very disheartening and unfortunately reflective of much of the public. You are a doctor, have a career based in science, and should know better. If you don't know better, you should educate yourself. This is not a political issue. This is not liberal vs. conservative. This is science. There are facts.
Italy's health system is near collapse. We are taking no significant steps to avoid their fate. Other than China and S. Korea, cases are increasing exponentially world wide, including the U.S. The virus doesn't magically stop spreading by chance.
All of our lives in this country, especially those of us in healthcare, are going to change dramatically over the next few weeks.
Your comments in this thread are very disheartening and unfortunately reflective of much of the public. You are a doctor, have a career based in science, and should know better. If you don't know better, you should educate yourself. This is not a political issue. This is not liberal vs. conservative. This is science. There are facts.
Italy's health system is near collapse. We are taking no significant steps to avoid their fate. Other than China and S. Korea, cases are increasing exponentially world wide, including the U.S. The virus doesn't magically stop spreading by chance.
All of our lives in this country, especially those of us in healthcare, are going to change dramatically over the next few weeks.
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SK did a great job but it looks like cases are rising again.
I think Germany is doing an amazing job. In middle of europe next to all these countries getting slammed but only FOUR deaths.
No one is getting a specific outcome in November with two septuagenarian candidates in ill health.
This is a really serious disease. The reports are lagging the reality because peer-reviewing articles takes time. If Veers wants to traffic in right-wing conspiracy theories, that's his business, but it certainly isn't doing anything to help the dire situation that's coming.
It's not illegal to shut down local and interstate transit, order stores closed, and cancel large events.
This is a really serious disease. The reports are lagging the reality because peer-reviewing articles takes time. If Veers wants to traffic in right-wing conspiracy theories, that's his business, but it certainly isn't doing anything to help the dire situation that's coming.
It's not illegal to shut down local and interstate transit, order stores closed, and cancel large events.
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I see that the President has suspended travel from Europe (except UK) for a month to go along with the bans from Iran and China. Good! Just get ready silence the cries of the from people having to cancel their Spring Break ski trip to northern Italy, and their family visits to Iran and China. It's all the same people who rented U-Hauls and have their garages stacked to the ceiling with virus-suffocating toilet paper.
And he got the insurance company CEOs to wave all copays for coronavirus testing. Good! That right there is a living, breathing miracle, that he got those greedy -----s to forego a nickel, that he'll never get credit for. He must have taken a baseball bat to their kneecaps like Al Capone, the get the people that'll cancel your kids cancer treatment over a $5 unpaid balance to give in. Bravo!
And canceling ball games, which in the grand scheme of things are completely unnecessary mass gatherings where grown men run around and play children's game of throwing a ball through ring for imaginary "points" designed for lighthearted fun and nothing else, is good too. They can all be rescheduled, and if they hold the games without fans, that's great too, because the best seat is always on a couch in front of a TV.
All this is great because, 1) Action will ease the anxiety of people demanding we, "Doing something," 2) It will probably many thousands of lives from the ongoing flu pandemic that's causing 20,000 American deaths that no one seems to care about, and 3) Get coronavirus under control before it become even remotely close to people's worst fears, like we did for Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Zika, SARS, MERS, Ebola, and like we always do.
And he got the insurance company CEOs to wave all copays for coronavirus testing. Good! That right there is a living, breathing miracle, that he got those greedy -----s to forego a nickel, that he'll never get credit for. He must have taken a baseball bat to their kneecaps like Al Capone, the get the people that'll cancel your kids cancer treatment over a $5 unpaid balance to give in. Bravo!
And canceling ball games, which in the grand scheme of things are completely unnecessary mass gatherings where grown men run around and play children's game of throwing a ball through ring for imaginary "points" designed for lighthearted fun and nothing else, is good too. They can all be rescheduled, and if they hold the games without fans, that's great too, because the best seat is always on a couch in front of a TV.
All this is great because, 1) Action will ease the anxiety of people demanding we, "Doing something," 2) It will probably many thousands of lives from the ongoing flu pandemic that's causing 20,000 American deaths that no one seems to care about, and 3) Get coronavirus under control before it become even remotely close to people's worst fears, like we did for Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Zika, SARS, MERS, Ebola, and like we always do.
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This article highlights the ineptitude of the US response Compared to s Korea.
www.cnn.com
1 company producing more tests per DAY (actually per hour) than the USA has managed in the last 2 months....
I predict history will tell this administration had one of the most bungled, incompetent responses conceivable resulting in hundreds of thousands of extra deaths in this country.
it’s easy to be casual now - but not after each of us have lost a neighbor, friend or parent.
How this South Korean company created coronavirus test kits in three weeks | CNN
Before there were any cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in South Korea, one of the country's biotech firms had begun preparing to make testing kits to identify the disease.
1 company producing more tests per DAY (actually per hour) than the USA has managed in the last 2 months....
I predict history will tell this administration had one of the most bungled, incompetent responses conceivable resulting in hundreds of thousands of extra deaths in this country.
it’s easy to be casual now - but not after each of us have lost a neighbor, friend or parent.
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That's not even close to true.
Really? We have one of the highest infection rates among developed nations. Other countries don't have outbreaks like the one in Indiana. How, exactly, are we doing well?
I don't understand the constant, ongoing need to pretend COVID-19 is less of a big deal than the seasonal flu. It's more infectious, has a longer incubation period, is most infectious during the incubation period, there's no vaccine, there's no herd immunity, the population is completely naive to the virus, and the mortality rate is 20x as high.
Texas is in the process of sending out 1 million test kits. Numbers of positives will probably skyrocket, mortality percent will go down though. I hope.
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If I had asked you in the mid 1990's, "If we could reduce U.S. AIDS deaths by 75%, would that be a good thing?" you would have said, "Hell yes! Show me how to do it and let's start now!" Now 25 years later, you say the same thing is bad. U.S. HIV death rates are way down from their peak in the mid 1990's. I suppose if your response is, "But zero infections would be better," then I suppose we agree. Zero cases of HIV, COVID-19 and influenza would all be better.
Right. But transmission is much higher than other Western nations. That's my point.
@Birdstrike and @GeneralVeers here's Fauci himself: Top Disease Expert Repeatedly Checks People Comparing Coronavirus To The Flu
@Birdstrike and @GeneralVeers here's Fauci himself: Top Disease Expert Repeatedly Checks People Comparing Coronavirus To The Flu
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Because our new infection rate is essentially the same as everyone else at the moment and are declining at the same rate as everyone else as well.
It took us longer to get a handle on it, but we're actually pretty good at it now.
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Yeah. I know Fauci said covid-19 has a death rate of 1% which is ten times higher than this years flu which is 0.1%. And I also know that somehow flu has still managed to kill 20,000 Americans this year, and more Americans this week (20,000/52 weeks = 384), than covid-19 has killed Americans, ever (<40). And I also know that you and I agree on the most important thing, which is that neither you nor I want either one!
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Um. Yeah. I consider it disturbing that the best-resourced country in the world is only just catching up on HIV, 40 years on.
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We were on the same page as of at least 2010 (maybe earlier, I just don't know). The history of HIV in this country is a troubling one, but that wasn't your initial post which is what I'm responding to.
Sure. But COVID is just starting to ramp up here. I would consider a disease that is 10-20x as deadly and more contagious to have much more potential for mass devastation and hospital system collapse. The flu hasn't crushed any health systems this year, unlike COVID-19.
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I'm not going to continue to try to ease anyone's anxiety about COVID-19, anymore. That's not going to be successful. I don't care who turns out to be "right" or "wrong" with their predictions. I'm just going to take common sense actions and follow recommended precautions like everyone else while moving forward with a positive attitude that'll we'll get past this, like we have other health threats. As things progress, I'll gladly change and adjust, as the facts change as will our CDC and infection control agencies. But other than preparing for the worst, which is having myself and family follow infection precautions to keep from getting viral pneumonia, and hoping for the best, there's not much more that I can do. If COVID-19 "crushes our health systems" here in the States, then we'll have much bigger problems than whether or not I come to SDN and admit I turned out to be wrong. And if we pass through this better than expected, then I'll be too happy about that to worry about who predicted the best or worst, as we all hopefully will.
Either way, COVID-19 is here and here to stay and it's not going extinct, ever. So until it makes enough rounds through the population that we build up a collective immunity to it, I'm not sure people are going be be able to maintain a 10/10 level of anxiety forever. But I'm willing to let them try. Hopefully, the exposure is slow enough that the capacity of our health systems can handle it well. I have confidence we will step it up and rise to the occasion, but I have no proof or guarantee that will happen.
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I'm curious whether any of y'all have actually seen a tube-able case of this thing yet and whether it was similar to the Seattle intensivist's excellent info above. We had a near miss last night... same CHF-like fulmination, even same lymphopenia, but actually due to a different virus.
(They won't actually let us test pt for covid-19 here, but that's cool since you can only ever get infected by one kind of virus at a time, right? :/)
I have no clue how much damage covid-19 will do ultimately, if any. Just feel like my job right now is to find it as soon as it comes to my shop in order to try to slow the impending ER patient explosion a bit from a public health perspective. No matter how you slice it, flu season sucks, and I dislike the notion of a second one this year, or worse.
(They won't actually let us test pt for covid-19 here, but that's cool since you can only ever get infected by one kind of virus at a time, right? :/)
I have no clue how much damage covid-19 will do ultimately, if any. Just feel like my job right now is to find it as soon as it comes to my shop in order to try to slow the impending ER patient explosion a bit from a public health perspective. No matter how you slice it, flu season sucks, and I dislike the notion of a second one this year, or worse.
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Keep in mind, when COVID-19 sweeps through a nursing home, not only are these people elderly, they're very likely to have DNR orders on file. So if they get sick and it's a survivable COVID-19 infection that's treatable with aggressive care, they may die anyways, because they're allowed to die, pre-existing DNR orders. So when you go to Seattle, for example, on this really great COVID-19 tracking map and you see 30 deaths in Seattle alone (which is 75% of the deaths in our whole country) out of 373 cases, and conclude a death rate of 8%, you have to ask, 1) How many were in nursing home patients, and 2) How many of those patients were DNR?
It's already been reported that 18 of those deaths in Seattle were from one nursing home. How many others were from other nursing homes in Seattle? How many of those patients were DNR?
I realize that the fact a patient was DNR doesn't make the virus any less lethal to this population, in fact more so. Also it doesn't make their death any less tragic or ease the pain of the family. But epidemiologically it does make a big difference. It means, 1) Nursing homes need to be under the strictest isolation precautions because COVID-19 is incredibly dangerous in that setting, which so far everyone seems to understand, but it also means that, 2) Just because COVID-19 swept through a nursing home and killed 18 extremely elderly patients most of whom were under DNR orders, doesn't mean it's going to sweep through your house, kill everyone in your family and collapse the country's health care systems. It might do that. But it might not. It might sweep through your house and give you all nothing but the sniffles, anti-bodies against COVID-19 and a lifetime supply of TP. Or maybe you won't get it at all.
It's already been reported that 18 of those deaths in Seattle were from one nursing home. How many others were from other nursing homes in Seattle? How many of those patients were DNR?
I realize that the fact a patient was DNR doesn't make the virus any less lethal to this population, in fact more so. Also it doesn't make their death any less tragic or ease the pain of the family. But epidemiologically it does make a big difference. It means, 1) Nursing homes need to be under the strictest isolation precautions because COVID-19 is incredibly dangerous in that setting, which so far everyone seems to understand, but it also means that, 2) Just because COVID-19 swept through a nursing home and killed 18 extremely elderly patients most of whom were under DNR orders, doesn't mean it's going to sweep through your house, kill everyone in your family and collapse the country's health care systems. It might do that. But it might not. It might sweep through your house and give you all nothing but the sniffles, anti-bodies against COVID-19 and a lifetime supply of TP. Or maybe you won't get it at all.
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I don't think it's too surprising, the two primary American demographics for HIV were gay men and IV drug abusers. Had it been spreading in less "objectionable" subgroups I think we would have seen the research progress at a significantly quicker rate.
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Since we aren't testing people, we won't know, and we can't know. We will know something is up if we see a big bump in admissions and ICU patients. Which is what happened in Italy; I'm not sure why we are so quick to dismiss their disaster. Or the number of young people affected there. Or the effect on their health system, which is collapsing.
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Best version of the graph and easy to remember
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What is it that you want me to do, with this information? What are you trying to convince me to do or think? To wash my hands, avoid sick people, stay home if I get sick, get the vaccine when it comes out, don't take any trips to Europe, Iran, or China, and that we don't want to become Italy? Because if so, I'm convinced. But beyond that, I'm not sure what you're trying to convince me of at this point.
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I think we should all promote and publicly support social distancing, encourage your health facility to test widely, and help inform our patients that this is much worse than the flu. Beyond that...agreed.
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Agreed.
Agreed.
As exactly stated, technically, I agree that telling patients this right now, as doing so is probably without much downside, so they take virus precautions seriously. But ultimately we won't know it's true until it's run it's course and the two can be compared at large. And it depends on how you define, "worse." If you're going by the death rate, we can't say which is "worse" yet, because as you said yourself, we know the number of deaths but don't know the total number of cases and therefore don't know the death rate rate and may (or may not) go down dramatically as we test more and identify carriers that aren't sick. If you are defining "worse" as by total number of deaths, it's not even close to being true yet, with influenza killing 250,000-500,000 per year worldwide, including right now, to not yet 5,000 so far, for covid-19. It might get there, but currently by that measure, it far, far away.
On the other hand, if saying this contributes to people's already severe apathy to flu, to the extent it reinforces some people's belief that "Flu isn't a big deal," they continue to turn down the vaccination and cavalierly expose their self to someone with the flu and die, then it could have a downside.
But in general, I think promoting and supporting that statement right now, probably has more upside than downside. And it may work just long enough to get us well into spring when viruses naturally wane, before people realize they can't sustain panic any longer and get just as apathetic about however many American corona ends up killing (40 and growing) as they are about the 20,000 people flu killed that they didn't notice.
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I guess I'm a "Right-wing Conspiracy Theorist" for stating facts:
1. The news media (including Fox) is reporting on every death, and whipping up hysteria to help feed their 24-hour news cycle. Rather than just encourage people to wash their hands, and stay home if they are sick, they are encouraging hording and broadcasting "what if" apocalyptic scenarios.
2. People in politics and the media are hyping this disease to score political points against the administration, even at the expense of the economy. Republicans would do it too, if roles were reversed. The same people who criticized the early travel ban to Asia as "racist", in very short order condemned the administration for not doing enough.
3. A "Total Lockdown" is unconstitutional. You later changed it to "closing public gatherings", but hardly the same as a "lockdown".
South Korea still has what I think is the best data. Per BBC as of yesterday death rate is 0.7%. Not something we should shut down entire countries for. They are able to provide their measures because they have high degree of social cooperation, and high trust in government as well as a very geographically concentrated population. All things we will never have here.
Italy is a cluster of a disaster because they had an already rickety healthcare system, beset by budget cutbacks. In the last 20 years, Lombardy alone had a 30% reduction in available hospital beds. Also look to see possibly a collapse of Britain's healthcare system as well, given they are unable to cope with even a normal flu epidemic without mass cancellation of schedule appointments and surgeries.
Given that we know this disease targets the very elderly and sick, we should be using our resources to quarantine nursing homes and assisted living facilities as well as hospital ICUs and implement stringent infection control.
Overall the panic induced by coverage of this disease has already caused more economic damage, and disrupted lives than this disease ever will.
1. The news media (including Fox) is reporting on every death, and whipping up hysteria to help feed their 24-hour news cycle. Rather than just encourage people to wash their hands, and stay home if they are sick, they are encouraging hording and broadcasting "what if" apocalyptic scenarios.
2. People in politics and the media are hyping this disease to score political points against the administration, even at the expense of the economy. Republicans would do it too, if roles were reversed. The same people who criticized the early travel ban to Asia as "racist", in very short order condemned the administration for not doing enough.
3. A "Total Lockdown" is unconstitutional. You later changed it to "closing public gatherings", but hardly the same as a "lockdown".
South Korea still has what I think is the best data. Per BBC as of yesterday death rate is 0.7%. Not something we should shut down entire countries for. They are able to provide their measures because they have high degree of social cooperation, and high trust in government as well as a very geographically concentrated population. All things we will never have here.
Italy is a cluster of a disaster because they had an already rickety healthcare system, beset by budget cutbacks. In the last 20 years, Lombardy alone had a 30% reduction in available hospital beds. Also look to see possibly a collapse of Britain's healthcare system as well, given they are unable to cope with even a normal flu epidemic without mass cancellation of schedule appointments and surgeries.
Given that we know this disease targets the very elderly and sick, we should be using our resources to quarantine nursing homes and assisted living facilities as well as hospital ICUs and implement stringent infection control.
Overall the panic induced by coverage of this disease has already caused more economic damage, and disrupted lives than this disease ever will.
Pence says there's been 'irresponsible rhetoric' from people downplaying the coronavirus
Trump said Monday that the “fake news media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything to inflame the coronavirus situation.”
www.nbcnews.com
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Pence says there's been 'irresponsible rhetoric' from people downplaying the coronavirus
Trump said Monday that the “fake news media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything to inflame the coronavirus situation.”
So I'm wrong, and the media has been completely responsible, not blowing things out of proportion, and acting in the best interest of viewers?
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But Veers, I don't think you understand. How much panic is enough? They've whipped the country into such a frenzy, the stock market, our life's savings are down 30%. But maybe that's not enough. 40 people have died from coronavirus, preventive measures are under way, but the number is going to grow. So maybe they need to panic the stock market down 40%. No, maybe 40% isn't enough. Oh, but wait until the media discovers that 50,000 American die every week in America. Then, maybe notching the panic up a notch so the market goes down 80%, will help. Then when they realize half of those deaths are preventable, caused literally by food, that we voluntarily choose to ingest in poisonous quantities, they'll really put the flame thrower to the panic and burn everything to the ground so we're in a Great Depression. That'll help. We'll be thin, healthy, virus free and we'd live forever, if not for the dying of starvation waiting in bread lines.
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