Aug 4, 2017
3
0
So I'm reviewing the MSAR, and I'm wondering, of the 7000 students that applied to x school, how many of them actually have reasonable stats? I've seen some threads here where students will ask to rate their chances where they'll have MCATs under 500 with a low 3.0 GPA. Of the 7000 students, how many will actually have a great mcat and GPA?

Kinda vague, I know. This is just something that has been bugging me.
 
About the Ads

md-2020

The Immaculate Catch
2+ Year Member
Jun 29, 2015
2,298
3,010
Status
Medical Student
There's of course no way to say for sure, but take a pretty good place like Mayo. They screen out everyone below the 75%ile MCAT pre-secondary (so like, 506ish these days?) and I'm not sure if they still have a GPA screen but it used to be like 3.2 or so. That eliminates ~30% of the applicant pool pre-secondary, so by those standards that section of people are pretty uncompetitive.

Obviously there's some self selection in who applies to a Top 20 like MMS and the percentage at state schools is probably higher, but I think this is a pretty good estimation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Remotefuse

Matthew9Thirtyfive

*breathes in* boi
Moderator
2+ Year Member
Jan 11, 2016
15,398
23,159
Status
Medical Student
https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

According to data from AAMC,

Of 27,000 applicants, 13,000 have an MCAT of 501 or below. Even roughly 9,000 have a 497 or below. 1/3 of the applicant pool I would say is not competitive based on MCAT scores alone.
Don't forget that MCAT isn't everything. Every year people with subpar mcats get into decent schools because they have something stellar that makes up for it. That's a small percentage of those 9-10k applicants, but it's not trivial.

And as to the op, if it's anything more than curiosity, you don't have to worry about it. This isn't a zero sum game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Remotefuse

Govols22

2+ Year Member
Nov 30, 2015
326
396
Status
Medical Student
So I'm reviewing the MSAR, and I'm wondering, of the 7000 students that applied to x school, how many of them actually have reasonable stats? I've seen some threads here where students will ask to rate their chances where they'll have MCATs under 500 with a low 3.0 GPA. Of the 7000 students, how many will actually have a great mcat and GPA?

Kinda vague, I know. This is just something that has been bugging me.
I never answered the second part of your question. According to the table I provided earlier, about 5% of the applicants have a 514+ 3.8+ GPA
 

gonnif

Only 342 Days Until Next Presidential Election
Lifetime Donor
10+ Year Member
Jul 26, 2009
20,822
32,260
The Big Bad Apple
Status
Non-Student
I did a very brief analysis of aggregate applicant data from 2013-2015 with old MCAT score and found on average per year
1) Applicants who had BOTH below 3.4 GPA AND 26 MCAT or lower, had 400 acceptance out of 7,000 applicants (aka junk applications)
2) Applicants who had EITHER below 3.4 GPA OR 26 MCAT or lower, were 40% of total acceptances for cycle.
3) Taking out the junk applications and acceptances from aggregate, it raised overall acceptance levelto about 45%

Therefore, on average, under 15% "junk applications" are in the applicant pool and even those had a 5%-6% of gaining an acceptance. So if you are trying to see what your "real" chances are by taking out the "junk" application, your are wasting your time and fooling yourself. Every application, even those initially screened out get read and evaluated. And even people with seemingly "junk" applications gain acceptance
 

Goro

Gold Donor
7+ Year Member
Jun 10, 2010
54,505
80,970
Somewhere west of St. Louis
Status
Non-Student
So I'm reviewing the MSAR, and I'm wondering, of the 7000 students that applied to x school, how many of them actually have reasonable stats? I've seen some threads here where students will ask to rate their chances where they'll have MCATs under 500 with a low 3.0 GPA. Of the 7000 students, how many will actually have a great mcat and GPA?

Kinda vague, I know. This is just something that has been bugging me.
I estimate it's up to 50% at our school. Same thing for Faculty job apps.
 

WedgeDawg

not actually a dog
Staff member
Administrator
7+ Year Member
Mar 22, 2012
7,656
12,464
Status
Resident [Any Field]
Old, but probably still accurate

WedgeDawg said:
Here are some numbers:

140,000 people apply to medical school every year.

We will say our "sphere of competitiveness" is encompassed by 3.60+ GPA and 30+ MCAT. This pool of applicants consists of 40,600 people (we've already eliminated over 70% of the applicant pool). If we want, we can include people with 3.40+ and 36+ MCATs to be in this competitive pool as well, so we'll add an additional 1400 applicants. This increases our pool to 42,000 applicants, a mere 30% of the original applicant pool. 32,200 are accepted, which is ~77%, meaning more than 3 in every 4 applicants in these categories are accepted! At this stage, it's more like who isn't going to be accepted than who is and we've so far only considered stats! More people will be screened out by lack of clinical exposure, red flags, late applications, applying to only Harvard, Hopkins, and Stanford, bad letters of recommendation, exceptionally poor writing skills, and so much more. Then, once people get to the interview stage, a poor interviewer will be screened out. These are a lot of things that work to screen out a mere 10,000 people from our "sphere of competitiveness", which can be done very easily.

Now, does this give you insight as to how the minds of adcoms work? No, probably not, and since every adcom and adcom member is different, you're going to be hard-pressed to find a way to get into the heads of every single one.

My point here is to show you that 1) this process is not random and 2) in the aggregate, it's more about "screening out" than "letting in" for the vast majority of applicants; the letting in part happens for the last few to survive these screens.

Hopefully this provides a different perspective on your musings.

Edit: Numbers from AAMC Table 24 (https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstable24.pdf)
 

kopftonmd

2+ Year Member
May 17, 2016
219
256
Status
Medical Student (Accepted)
Old, but probably still accurate
I just want to emphasize a point that was a bit hidden by the numbers up there (ofc, take this with a grain of salt: I'm neither an adcom nor accepted yet):

It's really seemed to me that the whole admissions process is avoiding getting dinged.

If you have a competitive GPA, MCAT, volunteering, research, shadowing, LORs, interview skills, writing skills, etc., it's hard for an adcom to ding you and throw you in the reject pile. This seems like common sense, but so many pre-meds I've met have have the mindset of being better than everyone else. But you can't do that with 50,000 other applicants. If you try and compare yourself to others, you'll just realize your inferior to the pre-med at Harvard who has been preened for medicine since conception with 4.0 GPA, 528 MCAT, etc. So don't do it.

Honestly, just be good enough. Do everything with good intentions and passion, ofc, but be able to live your life. A lot of that comes from taking a breath, accepting that you probably won't be that perfect person, but doing everything well enough to avoid getting dinged is probably enough to get in.
 

gonnif

Only 342 Days Until Next Presidential Election
Lifetime Donor
10+ Year Member
Jul 26, 2009
20,822
32,260
The Big Bad Apple
Status
Non-Student
I just want to emphasize a point that was a bit hidden by the numbers up there (ofc, take this with a grain of salt: I'm neither an adcom nor accepted yet):

It's really seemed to me that the whole admissions process is avoiding getting dinged.

If you have a competitive GPA, MCAT, volunteering, research, shadowing, LORs, interview skills, writing skills, etc., it's hard for an adcom to ding you and throw you in the reject pile. This seems like common sense, but so many pre-meds I've met have have the mindset of being better than everyone else. But you can't do that with 50,000 other applicants. If you try and compare yourself to others, you'll just realize your inferior to the pre-med at Harvard who has been preened for medicine since conception with 4.0 GPA, 528 MCAT, etc. So don't do it.

Honestly, just be good enough. Do everything with good intentions and passion, ofc, but be able to live your life. A lot of that comes from taking a breath, accepting that you probably won't be that perfect person, but doing everything well enough to avoid getting dinged is probably enough to get in.
One of best expression of this concept above

I would concluded with a bit stronger. Not just well enough but solidly. Not perfect, not fantastic, bit solid all around work with a solid application makes you solidly competitive
 
Oct 13, 2008
5,532
1,162
Status
Resident [Any Field]
For a specific school, I'd look for their interview %. Some highly selective schools interview like 4-5% and accept 2% IIRC. Probably triple-quadruple that number were competitive by stats alone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Remotefuse
About the Ads