I want to take a shot at this too!
So match lists are useless to look at for reasons already discussed. You don't know what influences people. Their interests, their ties to locations, family, etc. So just because someone matched in Peds or someone matched in Wyoming (no offense to Wyomans) doesn't mean it's a bad match for them.. For all you know, that's where they wanted to go from the start.
Also, medical schools have residencies of varying levels of competitiveness. Sompleace not well known for internal medicine may have a big-time neurosurg or pathology program or something like that. Just because it doesn't say "Harvard" next to someone's name doesn't mean that person didn't match into an elite program.
Finally some programs are just malignant. Duke has a pretty sweet name, but ask around the surgery folks what they think of the gen surg residency. This is basically the converse of what I just said above (or is it inverse?).
In conclusion don't trust match lists.