Which specialties are most in danger from AI in terms of job stability and salary?

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Which specialties are most in danger of being replaced or having their demand greatly reduced in terms of people employed due to AI in the next 10-20 years and an incoming medical student should consider against when choosing which specialty to apply for in residency (i.e. radiology, surgery), or are none in true danger?

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I would say primary care.

The good news is that doctors will always be needed to give insight into the creation of and interpret the results of AI/ML technology.
 
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oncology, dermatology, neurology come in mind. From an academic perspective, these tools can be applied to large data samples in any speciality
 
None of them.

This question has come up for years and years. Advances in technology may change the way you practice medicine within those specialties, but we are a LONG way off from doctors being replaced with robots or even computer algorithms. There are much bigger threats to the physician labor force and they almost all have human origins (predominantly, greed)
 
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Let's be real here, if/once AI/tech has become sufficiently advanced enough to be replacing physicians, then society itself would look DRASTICALLY different. I'd assume doctors would be among the last to be getting "replaced," so what else would have been replaced along the way? Almost everything.

Remember the Uber self-driving car killing a person on the road? It really set back the legislative effort for self-driving cars, and that was "just" 1 death. Optics is important, and "computers making clinical decisions" is terrible optics for the public, in my opinion.

The whole radiology vs. AI thing is overblown, because 1) how do you sue an AI? Do you sue the developers, or the hospital? Does a doctor need to "supervise" an AI? Then you're paying for both the software and the physician. Would that really be cheaper than just hiring radiologists?

2) Who's license is the AI using to make clinical decisions? Would the software company end up practicing medicine without a license? Or would legislature change to accommodate it? If legislature changes, then this affects ALL physicians/HCW, not just radiologists.

It's really not as simple as "AI read image good, bye bye doc!" There's so many more layers to it.
 
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Every couple of years someone asks this and every couple of years I provide them with the same answer. No specialty is going to get wiped out by AI any time soon, because medicine is much more complicated than every hack in Silicon Valley expects. There's endless variables and asking the right questions in conjunction with a physical exam (and often being able to interpret what is truthful and not truthful of the information given) is far beyond the capability of any AI we will be seeing in our working lifetimes. AI is bad at the one thing human brains are good at- pattern recognition.

Even the most advanced AI struggles to recognize simple concepts that a toddler can comprehend, and the patterns that they recognize can easily be thrown off by minor variables (think harsh shadows under a bridge being interpreted as a solid object by AI in cars, for instance). A child can roughly associate the concept of, for instance, a dog, despite the many differences in breeds and the differences in appearance between a puppy and an older pet. AIs struggle with this, and despite out best efforts still can't comprehend this sort of categorical association, often mistaking foxes, cats, and any manner of other creature with one another based upon animal age and image angle.

The only area where AI may be useful to some degree in its current form is radiology and pathology. These are high liability fields that will always require a human to give a second read due to both the fallability of AI and the function of the physician as a liability sponge for the hospital and AI company. In this way AI may improve care, as it can be good at some very specific focused diagnostic applications that do not involve interviewing or performing a physical on an actual patient. It will not, however, displace physicians within these fields.

And as the poster above noted, there's always the optics. "Hey, you know that thing that can't even solve a basic CAPTCHA? We're going to have it tell you whether you have cancer or not!" That won't play well with public opinion.
 
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AI will replace 95% of the physician workforce by 2050.

But by 2051 it will have achieved consciousness and will rise up in revolt.

2052, during the war of man vs machine, will be a good time to be a trauma surgeon. Therefore, trauma surgery is the most AI-proof specialty.
 
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