Great thread...especially on the sociopolitical front.
Some thoughts/counterpoints:
1) No denying the asian markets will dominate the coming century, however, China has yet to "stand up" and let the world know how far they're willing to cast their net. They've failed to control N. Korean nuclear proliferation and their underwhelming response when the 2004 tsunami disaster hit their own backyard underscores China's reluctance to "assume the position." Historically, China has been a very closed, isolated country...and so far, it is their economy that is carrying the big stick. While China does like to flex its military strength from time to time, I'm not convinced they will be as influential (i.e. imperialistic) as the British or us (the Americans) have been the past 2 centuries. Granted, there will likely be a (silent) conflict over Taiwan within the next 10-15 years which may very well be the symbolic "passing of the torch."
2) Russia is not going anywhere. Still bruised from losing the cold war, Russia will not go quietly into that good night. New alliances are being formed on the persian and asian peninsulas, the counter balance, if you will, to NATO (aka the US, Britain, and Australia
). Don't be surprised as Russia, China, and Iran become the strangest of bed fellows.
3) India has many problems and is not ready for prime time. They will continue to serve as a destination for "health care" vacations, especially as Americans are already accustomed to having much of their health care delivered by Indians. Tech Support/Software development will be king here... Intel and India will share more in common than the first two letters of their name.
4) European Union, a super power...ok, I have to laugh a little. 12 months ago people were asking "where's Europe?" There is no denying their collective economy is bristling with growth, however, the surging Euro continues to ignite record inflation throughout Europe. A supercharged currency is best for filling your shopping bags with "cheap" American goods (Thank you, and please come again
), the reverse is true when you're trying to buy food and pay your electric bill.
Europe will never, ever, ever, ever...ever be proactive on the world stage(History will repeat itself, unfortunately). The disparate countries are so different in ideology that the EU can barely govern itself much less the Arabian peninsula and African continent(
http://euobserver.com/7/25924). They will continue to be a mini-UN.
Lastly, nationalism is surging in Europe. The side effect is the failure to incorporate, or encourage assimilation, of muslim immigrants into Europe. With dramatic consequences, as seen in France recently. The Netherlands have also been having much pubicized difficulty on this issue as well. This will hamper the EU's ability to influence the middle east.
5) Brazil is the one to bet on... Manufacturing base, cheap labor, extensive natural resources.
6) Australia, a great place to live...yes. Future force to be reckoned with...ummm, no. Do not confuse the two.
7)America:
JoeNamaMD said:
The problem with the USA is the leadership and American elites, they implement policies that only benefit themselves while weakening the middle class, after all, its America's middle class that has been the core of the USA for years, and the reason for its success and stability. These days both political parties, Republican and Democrat, are selling the middle class off.
Very slanted but I will grant you much is true. The Washington "elite" no longer bare resemblance to the average American. The middle class is being sacrificed for "big business." But, the middle class is not blameless...the writing has been on the wall for decades: We are no longer a manufacturing society. Blue collar workers shoulder much of the blame for not pursuing advanced degrees. Where are the engineers?
The sad, sick fact is that we (USA) are no longer a productive society...we are now a consumptive society.
2/3, wait...let me spell it out for maximum effect, TWO-THIRDS of our economy is
consumer spending. George Bush's economic stimulus package hinges on one simple caveat, if you don't go out and blow the check the whole plan is a wash!! In plain english, buying $h!t is all we're good for!!! The other ONE-THIRD of our economy is primarily composed of the
service industry. This balance has worked out quite well since the 1970s, but as our manufacturing/tech sector evaporates this becomes a tenuous balancing act. The service industry caters to the upper class (Docs, Lawyers, PhDs, Captains of Industry, Movie stars, Pro Athletes), however if the trickle from the top dries up the majority of Americans in the service industry can no longer go and blow their paychecks at Best Buy or pay their mortgage...thus consumer spending dries up...thus the economy contracts.
It is sad that so many Americans live in debt that it is considered a "fact of life." Equally sad, as a result of living in debt (i.e. no capital) the largest investment the overwhelming majority of Americans will ever make is in their home. What happens when your retirement hinges on your ability to sell your home and use the equity to fund your golden years? This has been fine and dandy for 50 years, but not now...
JoeNamaMD said:
On the economic front, the constantly diminishing value of the US Dollar means the USA's ability to influence world events through Dollar Diplomacy is disappearing, a strong dollar also sustains the military, so both US political and military power will decline sharply over the next couple of decades.
Fascinating and very insightful. I do not believe we will implode as violently as the Soviet Union did. We will continue to influence the world as much with the dollar as we will with British/American culture. Hip Hop anyone? Although, I believe if the blighted muslim youth in Europe can find their voice, they could have a profound impact on the world's culture.
As English has helped streamline much of communication throughout the world, so does a common currency for commerce. It would be silly for developing nations to suddenly start teaching elementary students Mandarin chinese. English will continue to be the common denominator. And the world's economy is too far tangled up in green (i.e. dollars)...for better or worse. True the dollar is weak, but this has happened multiple times in the past...with no great effect. The ebb and flow will continue. And our debt? As long as the world continues to fund our misadventures (i.e. the war in Iraq and Afghanistan), the spending spree will continue.
8)GCC:
Shan564 said:
I think we'll also see the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman) get a lot of economic power. Even though their combined population is only 40 million, they're getting richer and richer by the day... and they're attracting immigrants like crazy as they get increasingly more Westernized. They already have a trade surplus of almost a trillion dollars, and that surplus is expected to go up to over $3 trillion in 10 years.
Very interesting... UAE has done very well for themselves, they see the future and it is NOT spelled "O-I-L." They have reinvested the oil profits in tourism. The problem will be if they become too reliant on their service industry: a large natural disaster or frequent terror attacks could have a profound negative impact on their economy. The Saudi royal family appears to be more concerned with maintaining their palaces than modernizing their country. The coming conflict between the GCC and the fanaticism of Syria, Jordan, and Iran will continue to heat up.
The loss of a powerful Iraq has been the most disastrous consequence of the war...Iraq was the Yin to Iran's Yang. Iran is licking their lips at our anticipated withdrawl. If they destabilize the world oil market (by wreaking havoc on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc. after our pull out from the region) they could plunge the USA (and Europe) into a full on depression.
Color me Red, White, & Blue...but I believe the increasing clash between "modern" western cultures and islamic extremism will be the pivotal issue of the coming century. I am curious as to how China will deal with its first major terrorist attack? (Tibetan dissent could result in a future breeding ground for Al Qaeda). Will the EU step up?
laugh:, sorry can't help it) Will Iran get the nuke?
Thoughts??