Pretty certain that 5% is pre-SOAP. I've actually never heard of a us md not even being able to get something like a pre-lim surgery year through soap
I ran some crude numbers on this a while back
Residency Match
Back of envelope calculation
in NRMP 2017 US Seniors
19030 initially applied for match
__431 withdrew application
___61 didnt get ranked at any program
18539 active applications
17480 matched
_1059 didnt match
__610 SOAP (post match) placement
__440 didnt match or SOAP
(some likely got individual contracts spots)
(some withdraws maybe not have graduated, not passed STEP 2, other issues for withdraw)
930 (approx) of 19030 who initially applied, didnt get a slot
Previous Graduates (ie someone other than senior)
_1500 (approx) (would include those in a slot who want another program or specialty)
--750 (approx) either match or SOAP
--750 (approx) dont get a new slot (would include some already in a slot)
It would seem of the 930 US seniors who dont get a slot, at least 500, likely closer or over 600 eventually do.
Ultimately, perhaps at most 400, likely under 300 of the 19,000 plus who graduate a year do not ultimately get a residency slot at some point or under 2% at most.