Why have Florida deaths dropped so dramatically?

[deleted1114045]

Florida seems to be peaking in their daily new COVID cases. However, the daily deaths have dropped to a handful a day. Is this artifact from a change in their Covid death recording? Usually, the death rate drops at least a couple of weeks after the daily caseload does. Any speculation as to what is going on?

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[xaelia]

Is this artifact from a change in their Covid death recording?

Your own question, answered, you have.

Florida has very poor data quality with respect to timing and completeness of their COVID data.

 

[deleted1114045]

Your own question, answered, you have.

Florida has very poor data quality with respect to timing and completeness of their COVID data.

Is this political?

 

[southerndoc]

Let's not go there. There's enough politics in the forum.

 

[The Knife & Gun Club]

Florida’s public health has always been poorly tracked. The large transient and or undocumented population adds to the issue, as lots of the people that live here are off the grid so to speak.

The reality is right now in Florida it’s an unmitigated, last days of war grade disaster. Our 2000 bed hospital is about to run out of oxygen unless the government brings us some within the next few days.

this is our 4th time playing the game, and it “feels” like we’re hitting our peak based on past experiences. But we’re about to send the kids back to school this week, which may rev the engine a little harder.

 

[Apollyon]

Let's not go there. There's enough politics in the forum.

If any thread, this is the one that would be Politic, capital P, as the simple idea of manipulation is irrespective of party. There are no "politics" in the forum, anyways, as anything that rings any bells is immediately thrown in the trash (forum), whether deserved or not.

 

[dchristismi]

I am in central Florida. I do a lot of hospice certifications, and I did an awful lot of acute respiratory failure ones this last weekend.
As above, lets not get into politics, but the deaths are indeed there. Lots of them and more to come.
(And these are only the ones who opt for withdrawal of aggressive measures with conversion to CMO or forego them altogether.)

 

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

Florida’s public health has always been poorly tracked. The large transient and or undocumented population adds to the issue, as lots of the people that live here are off the grid so to speak.

The reality is right now in Florida it’s an unmitigated, last days of war grade disaster. Our 2000 bed hospital is about to run out of oxygen unless the government brings us some within the next few days.

this is our 4th time playing the game, and it “feels” like we’re hitting our peak based on past experiences. But we’re about to send the kids back to school this week, which may rev the engine a little harder.

I heard about a small community hospital (Vero Beach maybe?) with 160 beds. 60 of them had covid patients on ventilators.

 

[Old_Mil]

Florida seems to be peaking in their daily new COVID cases. However, the daily deaths have dropped to a handful a day. Is this artifact from a change in their Covid death recording? Usually, the death rate drops at least a couple of weeks after the daily caseload does. Any speculation as to what is going on?

Lets not get into the propensity some have to accept data that supports their biases and reject data that doesn't and assume the data is correct. Lets see if this trend continues.

A couple of weeks ago, the state announce that they were opening centers for the widespread distribution of Casirivimab and Imdevimab for early outpatient treatment of Covid.

Perhaps this is having an impact.

 

[Arcan57]

Inability to effectively message vaccination efficacy or secure supply lines for mission critical or maintain a public health infrastructure that's capable of managing regional surges may not be political, but it is something. It seems reasonable to assume that we're heading to a point where, if not now then soon, nobody is coming to help. As ED docs, we know that feeling. It's a Monday night with 40 in the waiting room, 5 callouts, the analyzer is down, and there's 1 x-ray tech who's sciatica is flaring so you can't get any portables done. The question becomes how do we engage with this post-normal situation when we can't rely on traditional channels.

 

[Birdstrike]

I can't comment on the specifics in Florida, or any political considerations going on there. Someone could be fudging the numbers; I have no idea. But also keep in mind, with a very rapid spread (high Ro) like delta covid, you can get a rapid rise, with a rapid drop. It's so rapid, it's like an explosion, it does its damage, then it has no one left to infect for a while, until immunity fades or a new variant emerges. Look at delta in India, May and June. Death curve is straight up, then almost straight down, in just a few weeks.

 

[sylvanthus]

They are most certainly fudging the numbers. Remember that chick who was in charge of the stats and had the cops break into her home to stop her from reporting accurate data? That state is f’ed.

 

[xaelia]

Look at delta in India, May and June. Death curve is straight up, then almost straight down, in just a few weeks.

View attachment 342601

Great example of how graphs and rates can seemingly change rapidly in the presence of poor data quality!

 

[RustedFox]

They are most certainly fudging the numbers. Remember that chick who was in charge of the stats and had the cops break into her home to stop her from reporting accurate data? That state is f’ed.

Floridian here. Can confirm. We are effed.

 

[aafisahar]

I can't comment on the specifics in Florida, or any political considerations going on there. Someone could be fudging the numbers; I have no idea. But also keep in mind, with a very rapid spread (high Ro) like delta covid, you can get a rapid rise, with a rapid drop. It's so rapid, it's like an explosion, it does its damage, then it has no one left to infect for a while, until immunity fades or a new variant emerges. Look at delta in India, May and June. Death curve is straight up, then almost straight down, in just a few weeks.

View attachment 342601

Pretty sure India fudged their numbers, just like China, Russia etc etc. We aren't immune either but we do have more people who believe in doing the right thing over what the state wants to put out there.

 

[Birdstrike]

Great example of how graphs and rates can seemingly change rapidly in the presence of poor data quality!

Pretty sure India fudged their numbers...

Conspiracy theorists!

jk

 

[Boatswain2PA]

They are most certainly fudging the numbers. Remember that chick who was in charge of the stats and had the cops break into her home to stop her from reporting accurate data?

For the rest of the Rebekkah Jones story.

Rebekah Jones, the COVID Whistleblower Who Wasn’t | National Review

The former dashboard manager alleges a vast data conspiracy in Florida; not a word of it is true.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[wholeheartedly]

For the rest of the Rebekkah Jones story.

Rebekah Jones, the COVID Whistleblower Who Wasn’t | National Review

The former dashboard manager alleges a vast data conspiracy in Florida; not a word of it is true.

www.nationalreview.com

She’s apparently running for congress now…

 

[wholeheartedly]

CDC apparently changed how deaths were reported on Aug. 10th so there’s some backfilling, high numbers etc. going on. basically it was related to the dates the deaths are associated with that could account for some of it.

But, as noted, this virus has done this massive spread/spike then quick burnout thing elsewhere for reasons scientists really don’t understand. whatever the reason hopefully it does it again.

 

[Arcan57]

For the rest of the Rebekkah Jones story.

Rebekah Jones, the COVID Whistleblower Who Wasn’t | National Review

The former dashboard manager alleges a vast data conspiracy in Florida; not a word of it is true.

www.nationalreview.com

Do you have anything that’s not written like a partisan hit job?

 

[Birdstrike]

..., this virus has done this massive spread/spike then quick burnout thing elsewhere for reasons scientists really don’t understand....

What don't they understand about that?

 

[Boatswain2PA]

Do you have anything that’s not written like a partisan hit job?

Almost everything in the media today is written like a partisan hit job. The media either comes from the far left (and therefore ignored by the the right) or from the far right (and therefore ignored by the left).

Ya gotta read both, filter out the partisanship and look for the few facts in the news. And ya gotta read both to find the facts that are inconvenient to the other side.

 

[Birdstrike]

Almost everything in the media today is written like a partisan hit job. The media either comes from the far left (and therefore ignored by the the right) or from the far right (and therefore ignored by the left).

Ya gotta read both, filter out the partisanship and look for the few facts in the news. And ya gotta read both to find the facts that are inconvenient to the other side.

That's true. There's no down-the-middle apartisan media anymore. I agree, that to know the truth you've got to read both sides, the side you like and the side you don't. To know the truth, you have to almost infer it, by taking from all vantage points. You've one version of the "truth" off to the left. You've got another version off to the right. You almost have to create a hologram somewhere in the middle, where non-partisan, unbiased journalism used to be.

The current business model is that opinions that trigger the most intense emotions are what get clicks, and clicks equal ad revenue. And we all know that "the most intense emotions" have very little, if any correlation with what's true. It might be what feels most true, but that doesn't mean it is.

 

[Siggy]

But, as noted, this virus has done this massive spread/spike then quick burnout thing elsewhere for reasons scientists really don’t understand. whatever the reason hopefully it does it again.

I hope so... because if we go on much further my hospital's entire ER is just going to be boarding ICU patients. I we're between 1/4 and 1/3rd of the ED beds being ICU patients. We were literally bringing a patient from the ICU back to the fast track (now property of the ICU Empire) so that if the impella patient survived he could go to CVICU (he did not however).

 

[Birdstrike]

I hope so... because if we go on much further my hospital's entire ER is just going to be boarding ICU patients. I we're between 1/4 and 1/3rd of the ED beds being ICU patients. We were literally bringing a patient from the ICU back to the fast track (now property of the ICU Empire) so that if the impella patient survived he could go to CVICU (he did not however).

Sorry to hear its so bad where you're at. Hopefully admin has let up on pushing the metrics and "all non-urgent patients must be seen in under 15 minutes" crap.

 

[wholeheartedly]

What don't they understand about that?

Because it’s likely a very complex set of reasons and it doesn’t just involve herd immunity.

 

[Birdstrike]

Because it’s likely a very complex set of reasons and it doesn’t just involve herd immunity.

If it spikes, burns out and stays burned out, I suppose we can all agree that would be a good thing, whether or not we fully understand why.

 

[deleted1114045]

If it spikes, burns out and stays burned out, I suppose we can all agree that would be a good thing, whether or not we fully understand why.

It sure would be a good thing. It would be the best thing in the world. It would be so good that we need to reproduce it. How Florida can be recording 26,000 new cases of Covid per day while recording only one death one day, five the next and nine the next would be phenomenal news. If their death rate has fallen by 10 to 20 fold, we need to take the same measures.

 

[Apollyon]

It sure would be a good thing. It would be the best thing in the world. It would be so good that we need to reproduce it. How Florida can be recording 26,000 new cases of Covid per day while recording only one death one day, five the next and nine the next would be phenomenal news. If their death rate has fallen by 10 to 20 fold, we need to take the same measures.

Since it's Florida, it likely involves some man dancing on a lawn mower or playing in traffic, and an alligator.

 

[Birdstrike]

It sure would be a good thing. It would be the best thing in the world. It would be so good that we need to reproduce it. How Florida can be recording 26,000 new cases of Covid per day while recording only one death one day, five the next and nine the next would be phenomenal news. If their death rate has fallen by 10 to 20 fold, we need to take the same measures.

Prior to responding to you, I did a quick google search on "why viruses disappear" and found some interesting stuff. Apparently, the 1918 Flu strain completely disappeared. Also, the one that caused the Asian flu in the '50's, also, completely gone. Other strains, have kept circulating, but those have disappeared and no one fully knows why. Also, every single flu virus that existed prior to 120 years ago, has gone extinct. No one knows fully why. It's not only a matter of the right amount lethality or contagiousness.

SARS-Coronavirus-1, also, seems to be have gone away. I'm sure the WHO, CDC and the world's public health people would love to take credit, or at least blame the lethality of the virus (kills off too many people to keep finding hosts) but that doesn't really explain it either. The more lethal MERS coronavirus is still circulating. Other, more lethal viruses (Ebola, Marburg) still exist, too.

So, you're right. Some disappear. Some stay around for centuries. And no one really know fully, why.

 

[bravotwozero]

If I’m not mistaken, the 1918 flu virus was H1N1. That virus may very well have disappeared during the covid pandemic, probably as a consequence of social distancing hand washing masking etc, but was definitely kicking around circa 2020.

 

[Birdstrike]

If I’m not mistaken, the 1918 flu virus was H1N1. That virus may very well have disappeared during the covid pandemic, probably as a consequence of social distancing hand washing masking etc, but was definitely kicking around circa 2020.

Apparently, the 1918 version of H1N1 is genetically different enough from the current circulating version of H1N1, that they're able to say that specific 1918 H1N1 version is extinct. At least from the source I got that from. It could be wrong, I guess. If there's anything the last year and a half has taught me, it's that I don't know s*!t about pandemics. Either way, It's an interesting enough read, if you want to check it out, here >> (BBC Future).

 

[wholeheartedly]

Yeah it’s pretty fascinating stuff, how I wound up studying epidemiology.

In this case it’s definitely better if we get lucky.

 

[thegenius]

It sure would be a good thing. It would be the best thing in the world. It would be so good that we need to reproduce it. How Florida can be recording 26,000 new cases of Covid per day while recording only one death one day, five the next and nine the next would be phenomenal news. If their death rate has fallen by 10 to 20 fold, we need to take the same measures.

There must be something in the way the deaths are recorded. There is no magic medicine out there for this disease. I just looked at the world-o-meters website for Florida...and there is a precipitous dropoff in deaths that doesn't make sense. We shall see

Edit:
I look at the other major states CA, TX, and NY and their deaths are either rising or have plateaued.

 

[Apollyon]

Yeah it’s pretty fascinating stuff, how I wound up studying epidemiology.

In this case it’s definitely better if we get lucky.

Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good!

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

That's true. There's no down-the-middle apartisan media anymore. I agree, that to know the truth you've got to read both sides, the side you like and the side you don't. To know the truth, you have to almost infer it, by taking from all vantage points. You've one version of the "truth" off to the left. You've got another version off to the right. You almost have to create a hologram somewhere in the middle, where non-partisan, unbiased journalism used to be.

Yeah, that's why I think the earth is a cube--I'm splitting the difference between the flat earthers and NASA. Gotta consider both sides, y'know? It's a shame facts no longer exist.

 

[Birdstrike]

Yeah, that's why I think the earth is a cube--I'm splitting the difference between the flat earthers and NASA. Gotta consider both sides, y'know? It's a shame facts no longer exist.

You’re NASA and everyone that has a different viewpoint is a Flat Earther. Got it.

 

[Franzd'Epinay]

You’re NASA and everyone that has a different viewpoint is a Flat Earther. Got it.

It doesn't matter who's NASA and who's the Flat Earther. Every viewpoint is equally removed from reality.

I also love playing the lottery: either I win or I don't; I love those 50/50 odds.

 

[Arcan57]

Almost everything in the media today is written like a partisan hit job. The media either comes from the far left (and therefore ignored by the the right) or from the far right (and therefore ignored by the left).

Ya gotta read both, filter out the partisanship and look for the few facts in the news. And ya gotta read both to find the facts that are inconvenient to the other side.

I think the “enlightened centrism” viewpoint ignores the fact that the magnitude of bias in mainstream right vs left media is disproportionately distributed. To accept both sides as having an equally flawed view of the truth is to concede your point of view to the side which is most flagrant about their lack of interest in objective facts.

 

[Boatswain2PA]

I think the “enlightened centrism” viewpoint ignores the fact that the magnitude of bias in mainstream right vs left media is disproportionately distributed. To accept both sides as having an equally flawed view of the truth is to concede your point of view to the side which is most flagrant about their lack of interest in objective facts.

I see two flaws in this thinking.

First - they are not equally flawed at the same time. Most of the news bias comes from ignoring stories. You rarely see stories about one Presidents artwork on CNN, and you rarely see stories about another Presidents kids business dealings on FOX. If you watch both, you will be aware of the shenanigans on both sides.

Second - one doesn't have to assign equal status to the media bias. CNN, for example, has a reporter who (In my opinion) did a GREAT job reporting the current administration's debacle in Afghanistan. Likewise, FOX had several reports in the past few years who critically assessed Trump.

So while individual news sources have well-deserved reputations for biases one way or another, it is the critical assessment of each individual news story, and comparing multiple sources offering news about the same situation, that makes one the best informed.

Edited- And I dont think you need to be a "centrist" to get, and critically assess, news from both ends of the spectrum. You can be a leftist and watch fox because you want to keep an eye on things that CNN historically doesn't cover, or a conservative who watches CNN for the same reason.

Coming back to the OP, and your comment about "cops breaking into her home to stop her from reporting the story of fudging of numbers"....its all hogwash.

It wouldn't surprise me (although I would be disappointed) if DeSantis was looking for/found a way to actually fudge the numbers. He is a politician, and politicians do political things (like Cuomo in NY). But so far I see no reliable sources saying they have.

It will be interesting if the trend of rapidly improving death rate continues. We should all hope it does.

 

[deleted1114045]

Florida COVID-19 update: 901 added deaths, largest single-day increase in pandemic history

 

[thegenius]

Florida COVID-19 update: 901 added deaths, largest single-day increase in pandemic history

Well there you go. The 901 deaths were spread out over many days...but nonetheless all of this occurred due to a change in reporting protocols:

"On Aug. 10, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported new cases and deaths to the CDC. Cases and deaths used to be logged as total new cases reported on a single day. Now, Florida is reporting cases by the “case date,” according to the CDC, rather than the date the case was logged into the system. The result of this change is a lag in cases by date and a number of cases back-filling over time."

There will be a lot of death in Florida. Case Fatality Rate is 1.3% as it stands when looking at confirmed infections vs death. We all know though that confirmed infections underestimates true infection rates though

 

[AlmostAnMD]

Maybe I'm just an idiot, but what counts as a covid death?

For example. I had a fully vaccinated guy that got mild covid symptoms and a week later came to me. I admitted him and he died 3 days later. However, his bcx were positive for e coli and bacteria sepsis was thought to be the driver of his death. But, he was diagosed with covid a week prior. Is he a covid death?

 

[sylvanthus]

Shhhh thats prob a biased news source. Fake news.

 

[maxxor]

Well there you go. The 901 deaths were spread out over many days...but nonetheless all of this occurred due to a change in reporting protocols:

"On Aug. 10, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported new cases and deaths to the CDC. Cases and deaths used to be logged as total new cases reported on a single day. Now, Florida is reporting cases by the “case date,” according to the CDC, rather than the date the case was logged into the system. The result of this change is a lag in cases by date and a number of cases back-filling over time."

There will be a lot of death in Florida. Case Fatality Rate is 1.3% as it stands when looking at confirmed infections vs death. We all know though that confirmed infections underestimates true infection rates though

Georgia has been using this method for a while.

While it is more “correct” from a retrospective analysis, any given snapshot always makes it look like things are getting better because of the lag in reporting. It also makes you feel like history is being rewritten because you check back a few days later and the old curve has been redrawn because “old cases” have been back filled to their respective case dates.

 

[Birdstrike]

Georgia has been using this method for a while.

While it is more “correct” from a retrospective analysis, any given snapshot always makes it look like things are getting better because of the lag in reporting. It also makes you feel like history is being rewritten because you check back a few days later and the old curve has been redrawn because “old cases” have been back filled to their respective case dates.

Early on in the pandemic there were days you'd suddenly see a state spike with 10 times the deaths on one day, compared to the day before. That was when they were dumping the data in batches, regardless of when the person died; just log it as a death today, if the data came in today, even if it happened days of weeks ago

That was creating panic, even false news stories, "Big spike in deaths in St. Somewhere! Pandemic surging!" So some locations switched to back-filling them based on the date of death, no matter when the data came in. As long as they're clear about which method they're using, it's okay, in my opinion.

But like anything else nowadays, people will take one nugget of slightly unusual information and build an 9-headed monster conspiracy theory out of it in no time, without every checking back to determine what the actual cause was.

 

[maxxor]

Early on in the pandemic there were days you'd suddenly see a state spike with 10 times the deaths on one day, compared to the day before. That was when they were dumping the data in batches, regardless of when the person died; just log it as a death today, if the data came in today, even if it happened days of weeks ago

That was creating panic, even false news stories, "Big spike in deaths in St. Somewhere! Pandemic surging!" So some locations switched to back-filling them based on the date of death, no matter when the data came in. As long as they're clear about which method they're using, it's okay, in my opinion.

But like anything else nowadays, people will take one nugget of slightly unusual information and build an 9-headed monster conspiracy theory out of it in no time, without every checking back to determine what the actual cause was.

Agree. It’s why I really like what the AJC has done by showing both curves:

ARCHIVE: The COVID-19 in Georgia Dashboard

This page is no longer updated. An archived count of reported coronavirus cases in Georgia through May 2023 with a county-by-county Georgia map. From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

www.ajc.com

(Warning, lots of ads).

 

[RustedFox]

But like anything else nowadays, people will take one nugget of slightly unusual information and build an 9-headed monster conspiracy theory out of it in no time, without every checking back to determine what the actual cause was.

Yep. That's America in 2021 for you.

 

[Goro]

Well there you go. The 901 deaths were spread out over many days...but nonetheless all of this occurred due to a change in reporting protocols:

"On Aug. 10, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported new cases and deaths to the CDC. Cases and deaths used to be logged as total new cases reported on a single day. Now, Florida is reporting cases by the “case date,” according to the CDC, rather than the date the case was logged into the system. The result of this change is a lag in cases by date and a number of cases back-filling over time."

There will be a lot of death in Florida. Case Fatality Rate is 1.3% as it stands when looking at confirmed infections vs death. We all know though that confirmed infections underestimates true infection rates though

According the JHU School of MPH COVID monitor, case fatality rate in the US is around 1.6%; worldwide around 2.0.

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[rokshana]

She’s apparently running for congress now…

I thought it was governor