I want a different poll option! e) It will happen, but not be widely accepted/used because of cost factors!
I don't doubt 1 bit that there will be an effective vaccine for
s.Mutans. The realistic factor about whether or not it succeeds and becomes a significant factor will be the cost assocaited with it.
Like it or not, dentistry in the US is highly driven by dental insurance, and unless some dramatic change occurrs in the dental healtcare system, this will be the case for a longtime to come. The insurance industry has a HUGE amount of utilization/cost data about the people it covers, and its from this data that the fee schedules they offer to dental providers are generated. These fee schedules that they offer ARE geographically specific, to the point where if there's a practicing dentist in a specific zipcode that treats a patient with dental insurance, the insurance company will have a "fee profile" of that zipcode. From all this fee information the insurance company has, they can easily determine what their average enrollee will spend on denatl care per year.
Now in the case of a caries vaccine, its a pretty safe assumption that given the reproduction rate of
s.Mutans that the vaccine would need to be administered on some type of regular basis(bi-annually??, yearly??, every other year?? - who knows) and with each administration of the vaccine there presumably would be a fee for that service. It's also a safe assumption that patients would still need the accepted norm of the bi-annual cleanings/exams/appropriate radiographs for perio reasons, with the associated fees for those services.
Bottomline, the insurance company will determine if they choose to cover this caries vaccine if their costs for the vaccine are LESS than the "average" annual restorative costs they pay out for their enrolled members. If the vaccine would cost them say $100 a year for it's memebers, vs. them paying an average of say $50 for restorative a year for their members, then I'd say that it's a safe bet that they WON'T cover the vaccine and it would then default to an out of pocket expense for the patient. Some people would choose to pay for it, but generally speaking overtime, most would decide not to pay for it. That's the reality of many patients and dental insurance, they'll do things if it's covered, but if it's not, their interest often is lost as soon as they have to open up their checkbooks.