Yale Waitlist??

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uclachris,

You're analysis seems to be really good, but I have one concern: 19 and 50-something are the number of people who ended up at Yale from the waitlist. The actual number of acceptances must have been higher. If you estimate that half of the waitlisted who are offered positions end up at Yale, then the 19-50 figure means there were 38-100 offers. That's a historical minimum of 38 acceptances from the waitlist and a historical maximum of 100.

How does this impact your tier estimations?
 
I definitely like uclachris's estimates, but they might be overly-optimistic. I was looking at the official yale countdown thread and reading all the posts and one person said they thought that there were 50 on the 1st tier, 100 on the second, and 50 on the third. I hope it's not that many. I also saw that 85% of interviewees are rejected post interview, but I don't know how many people interviewed. If we just take 15% of hte interviewers and use 150 accepted + 200 on the waitlist, then that means that 2333 people interviewed which seems like way too many. Plus I would doubt they could go through 150 waitlisted people half the time. If 1000 people interviewed and 85% rejected then that means 150 are left and that can't be right since 150 were accepted outright. So that could mean that either the 85% thing is off or that 200 is too many on the waiting list. But one thing it definitely means is that I'm utterly pathetic for figuring this out. However, I don't think we should stop analyzing this because at least this way I see posts on this thread when I check sdn every hour. Maybe we should just figure that they usually take 50-75 from the waiting list because I've heard the total accepted to be between 200 and 225, so if they go through the second tier completely half the time then that means probably 25 first tier, 50 second tier. Third tier I have no idea. I'm thinking about this way too much....
Anybody at Yale now who knows any ballpark numbers?
 
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hey stumyers, what tier are you on? There's a lot of people who have posted on this thread who never said what tier they're on. Can everyone who's reading this thread at least post that so we can get an idea of the distribution among the tiers for sdners? That might help us figure some of this out.
 
ARRRGH!

I had written a good response; but my browser crashed! Here goes again.

First of all, it all has to do with what you define as "coming off of the Waiting List." Does that mean that those people are accepted AND matriculate to Yale, or are just offered positions?

The long and the short of it is this. I doubt that the Waiting List is 250 people long. That would mean from about 1000 interviewees, they waitlist or accept 400-- which I think is quite too many. From correspondence with my student interviewer, he makes it sound like it is a very big thing to even be on the Waiting List, so I will err on the side of a small Waiting List.

When I said they accept about 150 in their first batch-- I think I had a mental fart. I recall Director Silverman saying something to the extent that they only accept the number of people that they have spaces for (anyone else get this same info???). So that would mean the inital acceptances would equal 101.

Now, the 85% post-interview rejection rate, I think is wrong. I think that it 85% is a percentage of applicants given offers to attend.

If we assume the following two cases:
(let ORR = Overall Rejection Rate (post-interview))

a) 19 waitlistees offered acceptance (87% ORR)
b) 59 waitlistees offered acceptance (83% ORR)

As you can see, the average of the two is 85%, which is not statiscially a correct thing to do, but for argument's sake is correct. And that then corresponds to my previous (albeit perhaps rosy) estimates of the Waiting List. The number of people being accepted off of the Waiting List depends on the number of people refusing to matriculate to Yale.

Now, these numbers could all be bogus if knew the actual percentage of the Yale class that comes off of the Waiting List AND the number of people given offers... But as we can see, all of this is conjecture...

I think we all have a good shot-- Tiers I, II, and even III-- regardless of the exact size of the tiers... IF all on tier I are given offers and 50% of the time all of tier II, those are great odds. Of course I would have loved to be on Tier I so I can start my move to New Haven-- but what doesn't kill you builds character, right?

Go Bulldogs
morice.gif
 
Thanks to everyone for convincing me that I am not obsessing about this waitlist thing to an unusual degree...perhaps to an unhealthy degree though :)

So I spoke with Mr. Silverman Friday. He was very nice and told me that he has spoken to the admissions directors at most of the top schools (at some conference or something) and they all spoke about the lack of waitlist movement this year. He said the same thing to me as he did to ccCrazie, that he thinks people are just holding on to their multiple acceptances until the last minute. Anyway, he told me that my position at the top of the third tier was still realistic at this point (so for those of you actually on the second tier that's good news).

He told me to call back on the 21st or 23rd to check again. He also said to not call before then because they will still be all hectic.
 
Me obsessive? Nah...
Just likes to talk alot and give the impression of being thorough...

:D
 
me obsessive? Yeah.....I think so at this point.

I used to be calm about this waiting list but now I'm starting to go nuts because I want to know so badly.

So who hasn't posted which tier they're on yet? This thread has 2,660 views and only 59 posts. Granted uclachris and I account for almost half those views but there's gotta be a bunch of lurkers out there not joining in the obsessive fun.

Keep up the optimism everyone. Thursday's the 15th!
 
| hey stumyers, what tier are you on?

I'm on #2.
 
Hi,

I am also "at the top of Tier 3" and my chances are "realistic."

hmm... Mr. Silverman seems to have told this to many of us.
 
yeah, i'm beginning to think that everyone on the third tier must be "at the top with a realistic shot of getting in." I can count four of us on this thread alone. In truth I think that makes our shot a little less realistic :(
 
Originally posted by uclachris
ARRRGH!
If we assume the following two cases:
(let ORR = Overall Rejection Rate (post-interview))

a) 19 waitlistees offered acceptance (87% ORR)
b) 59 waitlistees offered acceptance (83% ORR)

As you can see, the average of the two is 85%, which is not statiscially a correct thing to do, but for argument's sake is correct. And that then corresponds to my previous (albeit perhaps rosy) estimates of the Waiting List. The number of people being accepted off of the Waiting List depends on the number of people refusing to matriculate to Yale.
Click to expand...

Forgot to include my variables.
Total Class Enrollment = 101;
Total Number of Interviewees = 950.

From a rough scan of SDN... It looks like there are on the order of 25 people on the Yale Waiting List. I think that a revision of the tiers may be in order soon... Either that or SDN has a high distribution of Yalie Waitlistees...
 
hey all... i know i'm not a regular or anything, but it was me who started this thread back in early april. i feel all special that everyone is thinking it's a worthwhile thread to post to. i haven't been on in a while because i was getting addicted to SDN. ANYWAYZ>>> I am at the bottom of tier 2 and Dr. Silverman encouraged me to hang in there. i'm hanging but this anxiety is killin' me. wish folks would give up these multiple acceptance...JEEZ.. the suspense is killing me

~LRMED2003:confused:
 
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hey just a question while we are all waiting...how would you characterize the students at Yale? The 2nd look website talked about how people were not impressed...someone talked about how all the students did peace corps (which to me sounds fine but he was apparently NOT impressed by this) I love the Yale program but realistically have spent what - 1 interview day there! Any thoughts?
 
I'll write more about the 2nd look and my experiences, but now (next couple of days), it's really hectic, so I couldn't do it justice - sorry.

Overall, I loved the students, and while you'll always find people you like and you hate, for the most part it's a very interesting and relaxed group of people.

What is the 2nd look website you mentioned?
 
For you statisticians out there, I'm one of the many who is holding a position at the "very top" of tier 3. This tier 3 doesn't seem to have a middle or a bottom, does it? :)
 
By second look website, i meant thread :)

looking forward to hearing from you surge!
 
Originally posted by mirla
hey just a question while we are all waiting...how would you characterize the students at Yale? The 2nd look website talked about how people were not impressed...someone talked about how all the students did peace corps (which to me sounds fine but he was apparently NOT impressed by this) I love the Yale program but realistically have spent what - 1 interview day there! Any thoughts?
Click to expand...
Overall, I loved the students, and while you'll always find people you like and you hate, for the most part it's a very interesting and relaxed group of people.
Click to expand...
It's also a busy time for me, so I'll keep this short. My impression of Yale upperclassmen is similar to ones of students at other schools. You're always going to find intelligent people who have done interesting things. Yale students especially seem to feel a responsibility to give back to the community. However, Yale's most outstanding quality is that, along with Harvard, the students were the most relaxed and happy that I've seen anywhere. It's really hard to have complaints about a system that affords students ultimate flexibility. I hope to see you at Yale in the fall.
 
thanks truth167 - I think you're right about the students there being happy.

what do you think of new haven and the actual physical location? it's hard to give up a city school but the yale program is such a draw...
 
Wow! You guys are so diehard Yale! Silverman should check this thread out and just admit you all for being so into YSM. BTW: I posted before saying that I got off the waitlist to Yale and would withdraw my acceptance. I couldn't do it! It's YALE!!! how can anyone say no to Yale....So.....I got my girlfriend to check the "I withdraw my acceptance at this time." box for me and drop the letter in the mail. :( W/D from YSM is practically an impossible task, but it had to be done.

Wish I could have given the seat to one of you guys ( ccCrazie, mirla, merlin17, etc.) You guys are awesome! ~Good Luck.
 
Thanks for the thought Shocker. But in reality you did help us all out because now there's one more opening available. Where are you going next year?

truth617- Are you waitlisted at Yale or did you get in off the waitlist? I can't tell by your post whether you're accepted or waitlisted. If you're waitlisted, what tier are you?

Tomorrow's a big day everyone. Hopefully some of us will be getting emails or calls soon.
 
Sounds like you're in a real good spot Kurtz. I take it Yale is your first choice. Glad our (over)analysis was helpful.

One thing I don't understand, and maybe someone can clear it up for me, is how the waitlist is unranked yet so many people were told which portion of the tier they're on. It seems to me if they're "completely unranked" like Mr. Silverman told me and a few others, then everyone in x tier would have the same chance once they started accepting from tier x. I don't quite get it. Good luck everyone and let us all know if you hear anything.
 
hey kurtz, silverman told you that the bottom of tier 1 should wait a couple weeks after list movement to hear!??!? He told me that they try to tell everyone in May if possible. Do you think they will extend it into June? the waiting is killlllllllllling me!
 
blanch,

has anyone said anything the least bit negative about yale on this thread? If anything, if he were readin it he'd know exactly how much some of us want to get in. personally I have nothing negative to say about yale so I have no problem if they know who I am. I think the worst thing that has been said is that they're killing us with the wait, and I don't think that's too bad because it's true of all waiting lists. If you were Silverman, would you offended by anything that's been said?

Kurtz- I had heard that schools try to replace people with similar candidates, and I can't figure out how that would affect me. I'm like dime a dozen being a white male from New Jersey, so I'm sure a lot of white males dropped yale, but there's also a lot of white males on the waiting list. I guess it all evens out. I would have thought they'd be into the second tier in a couple weeks based on how they go though it half the time and the next couple weeks are the major movement. Dang. Well I guess this just gives me more time to analyze and we'll finally have some new information to use as the list starts moving.
 
Ok granted I do come off as looking a little bit obsessive, anyone could see that with the number of posts I have concerning Yale. Point taken. Oh well, too late now though. Maybe an obsessive person will decline their acceptance at Yale and they'll want to replace them with another obsessive person. If that's the case, I could be in luck. What do you think Kurtz
 
... As long as you don't give away clues as to your identity, like where you're from, what other schools you've been accepted at, your undergrad, or when you called the Admissions Office, then I would imagine there's no harm in chatting here ...
Click to expand...
Well, from my profile and screen name, I think any AdCom can easily find out my exact identity. If the members of the Admissions Committee want to take the time to troll SDN for hints towards the psychological disposition of people that they may accept, then more power to them-- but for the most part I think that they would find that there are people who are being honest and open and those who are holding their cards closer than a Texas poker player. I am 100% complacent with them and even people on SDN knowing my identity.

[SHAMELESS PLUG TO ALL ADMISSION COMMITTEE MEMBERS]
I want to go to your school.
[END OF SHAMELESS PLUG]

To me, truth is very important. I would say that in a true collegiate atmosphere the free exchange of ideas, opinions, frustrations, victories and defeats is vital to its foundation. Perhaps we now live in a time where such an environment is impossible... But that's a different issue.

Well, I'm off to an Investigator's Meeting. Should any Admissions Committee want to get a hold of me, you have my cell phone number.

Chris from UCLA

PS: Now... Let's get back to the topic at hand, which is Yale and its Waiting List and not some concocted conspiracy theory.
 
well said chris. I think that our constant sharing of ideas is the basis for the "yale system" where students help each other rather than compete. That being said, the last 4 digits of my social security number are 3053 for any adcom wishing to identify me.
 
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Is anyone calling today? Does anyone have any legit information on when the waitlist will move?
 
Did anyone learn from Mr. Silverman today how many acceptance acceptances Yale received? There must be someone who got through today who reads this thread . . .
 
stumyers,

Well based on all my posts, you'd think I would have called but last time I talked to Mr. Silverman, he told me that it would be best to call back on the 21st or 23rd because they'll know more by then. Does anyone know if they accepted 100 or 150 outright? I've heard both figures, but I don't know which is true. Or maybe it's some number in between.
 
They accepted 100. Mr. Silverman told me that they have an internal regulation that prevents the admissions office from issuing more acceptances than they have positions in the class. In fact, they "under-admit" because they know that among those 100 there are people who have already declared their intent to take a year off. Beofre their plans are finalized, though, they occupy a place in the class of 2007.
 
sweeeeeet. I feel like I just found out that 50 people turned down Yale. So that means that if they usually accept around 200 total, then they go though about 100 on the waiting list. That also means that the waiting list is larger than I was thinking. Man I can't wait until this list starts moving. The longer I wait the more it gets to me and drives me nuts. Did anyone actually call today or maybe find out something new?
 
I'm glad I could be the bearer of such great news!

Yeah, I am really anxious to see if this puppy is movin' at all.
 
(hey, I said it was a busy time :) )
what do you think of new haven and the actual physical location? it's hard to give up a city school but the yale program is such a draw...
Click to expand...
For me, New Haven's good, and I'm expecting to be pleasantly surprised as I explore it a bit. I'm looking forward to checking out the rest of the Yale campus and facilities. For medicine, excellent patient population. NYC is close enough if I want to see a Broadway show or baseball game or something. Affordable housing and living expenses.

There has been a teeny bit of movement on the waitlist, so hang in there.
 
Did anyone get through today? Any info on whether or not the list is moving?
 
Hi Everyone,

I am also on the waiting list, and anxiously waiting to hear from Yale. I talked to Mr. Silverman today and have "a good position" in tier 2 and that my place was accepted the last 2 or 3 years.

For those of you interested in general information, he said that Yale has only started accepting people from the wait list in the last few days, although it looks like "a statistically normal" year. He said that even though it is after May 15, there were still many "unresolved" situations so they couldn't tell how many people they would accept off the wait list.

He also told me that next week is graduation so to call back the week after.
 
Bumparoo!

Am fighting with all my might not to call until next week!

Pulling for y'all at this end,

-blue skies
 
Originally posted by stumyers
Any info on whether or not the list is moving?
Click to expand...
See the post above yours :)

stumyers, it's nice that you seem to have such a desire to attend Yale, but it sounds like you're a bit too wrapped up with this. Just chill for a while, homes. I'm sure that the admissions office is very busy and that they're doing their best to notify accepted applicants as soon as possible. I hope you understand that they're handcuffed a bit with respect to how soon accepted students notify them of their intentions.
 
Truth617,

While I'm not really into using these forums for personal conversations, I'll indulge this once . . . Yes, I am wrapped up in this process, maybe a little too much. I'm the first one to admit this. I loved Yale, and am anxious to hear how the waitlist is moving as that will determine where I spend the next four years of my life.
 
Stumyers- don't worry, I don't think you're too wrapped up in the process. Everyone on the waiting list who really wants to go to Yale is dying for information and it's been left up to a handfull of us to provide all the information. By the way, did you get my PM?

Truth- Did you get into Yale or what? You keep leaving these posts that hint at things but never say them outright. It sounds like you're in, and if that's case, it's definitely easy to say others are too wrapped up in waiting list when it's something you don't have to worry about. Know what I mean? By the way, if you are in, congrats and thanks for providing us with some information when you can. Could you let us know where you were on the waiting list or any other information you might have that could help us out?
 
I was wondering the same thing. Why haven't the first tier people been accepted yet?
 
Perhaps they have... Maybe it's because some people on this list on believe in asking for information (by way of "simple questions" without providing answers to other members questions, and the like), while others fear to add any because they maybe identified by admissions committee members, when the communication on this system should be free and forthcoming, at the very least quid pro quo.
 
I think it is pretty crazy to be worried about Mr. Silverman logging on to this website to find out who's thinking what . . . I'm pretty sure he's got more important things to worry about than SDN.
 
my goodness i hope he has better things to do...not that SDN isn't a fantastic procrastination tool :p

the last time i called he told me to call back today but i have a feeling nothing has changed since then so i think i may hold off for awhile. as much as i love running up hour long phone calls to new haven, i think my boss might not be quite as pleased.
 
I just called. Apaprently he had some emergency and had to leave the office, so he will not be taking calls today.
 
Hey folks - I managed to get through today. Mr Silverman said that until a few weeks ago he and the admissions office wondered if they were going to be able to make offers to anyone on the waitlist. However, they met with the thirteen-school cosortium (a group of selective med schools) and everyone had the same situation - a lot of people have gotten extensions past the May 15 deadline. People are just being more cautious this year. He said that now things look more statistically normal and he feels like they will look back at the year and realize it was pretty normal, just delayed. Much the same info - next week is graduation, etc etc. He said numbers wise (and this is VERY tentative) it looks like they will take 12-13 off the waitlist, and as many as 20 - 25 (whatever that means). I have a good, realistic position, very hopeful (I'm on tier 1) and I'm to call back the week of June 2 if I haven't heard from them by then and he will be able to give me a more "concise" answer. I hope whoever took those extensions chooses another school!!!! I'm holding out the torch for Yale, and hoping that after all this waiting I won't call in June only to find out things have changed and the first tier won't all be accepted. I really hope the rest of you - Ccrazie, Kurtz etc, - will be at Yale next year too!!!
 
Thanks for the info mirla, I tried to get through today too but I kept getting that "everyone is busy, call back" message. Am I the only one seriously losing hope with this entire waiting list? 12-25 seems like so few people. That doesn't even sound like it's through the first tier. Every day that nobody reports getting in off the waiting list I think there's less and less of a chance. I thought they'd be into the second tier by now, although maybe that was wishful thinking. Anyway I hope this works out for all of us and I'm trying to maintain some level of hopefulness but it's getting harder and harder.
 
Let's not get down. Remember there are lots of people on SDN who are on the Yale W/L and look to be going to other schools and havent really contributed to the Yale waitlist. The implication is that they are either don't contribute for whatever reasons they may have or are no longer seriously considering Yale.

I think that the "High" Waiting List people have been made offers. Next would be Tier I, which should start moving in the next two weeks.

TRUTH617? Were you a high waitlister that got accepted or someone who was accepted outright? Your contribution to the thread would be welcomed.

Keep hope alive!
C
 
Mirla,

Did Silverman mention where are you on tier 1? Did you get any impression as to how big the tiers are?

12-25 does not seem statistically normal from what I have been told. Didn't he say that they have accepted as few as 17 and as many as 50+ from the waitlist during his tenure as director?
 
Oh yeah, and truth617, are you accepted or what? Your evasion of that question combined with your username leads me to believe you may be Silverman himself. :laugh:
 
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