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[Mad Jack]

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This is not out of the realm of possibility. No one knows what an individual stock will do. Tsla will fall in the near term, musk is pissing half the world off, but at the end of the day how Tsla performs will be related to how they execute.

This thread will be good to bring up in 1-2 years and we can see who ends up right.

I continue to posit failed execution on their part. Just like I think AI is going to mostly end up being hype that is good for augmenting work and increasing productivity but nowhere near the massive force of change people are expecting, which is going to land us a lost decade in tech when people realize how truly limited LLMs are. The only real hope we have of avoiding that is if they can pull out The Next Big Thing (likely quantum computing, which actually could be world altering) before the bubble bursts to distract people like AI did after NFTs didn't pan out

 

[Mad Jack]

It's happening right now.

Oh this is just a hiccup. I'm talking dropping to the low 100s or even lower

 

[Splenda88]

Oh this is just a hiccup. I'm talking dropping to the low 100s or even lower

We'll see. I sold my small position for a small profit before the election because of how erratic Elon was. However, I own a model Y and I must say that I like the car.

 

[emergentmd]

We'll see. I sold my small position for a small profit before the election because of how erratic Elon was. However, I own a model Y and I must say that I like the car.

I am buying on the dip. Be interesting who ends up being right on this.

 

[finalpsychyear]

I am buying on the dip. Be interesting who ends up being right on this.

Same. I dont bet against elon. Will be worth a bump in this thread in next few years.

 

[glorifiedresident]

I have followed the self driving space fairly closely for the past decade. I don't see tesla getting there, it's not a robust system in that the driving is not repeatable or dependable. I've watched many hours of FSD video online. The miles per intervention has improved recently, but is still an order (or two) of magnitude lower than what is needed. I'll be the first person to buy a self driving vehicle, but Tesla is not even close. Most experts in the space also agree with this. The one thing I haven't figured out is why this hasn't been reflected in the stock price trajectory over the past several years.

 

[glorifiedresident]

I continue to posit failed execution on their part. Just like I think AI is going to mostly end up being hype that is good for augmenting work and increasing productivity but nowhere near the massive force of change people are expecting, which is going to land us a lost decade in tech when people realize how truly limited LLMs are. The only real hope we have of avoiding that is if they can pull out The Next Big Thing (likely quantum computing, which actually could be world altering) before the bubble bursts to distract people like AI did after NFTs didn't pan out

I'm a very heavy user of Ai (for work and other purposes), i have paid subscriptions to the two leading models. This is probably the most fascinating technology that I have used. That being said, I also think there is a possibility that Ai will fizzle out in the next 5-10 years- it will improve, likely by a large amount, but I'm not sure that I see it transforming society like many people are predicting (mass job displacement) I think human intelligence, creativity, and agency is vastly underrated. Consider autonomous vehicles: a decade ago they seemed imminent, but proved far more complex than anticipated. I think the same may happen with Ai. (I do think however that Ai will transform the field of medicine)

 

[Mad Jack]

I'm a very heavy user of Ai (for work and other purposes), i have paid subscriptions to the two leading models. This is probably the most fascinating technology that I have used. That being said, I also think there is a possibility that Ai will fizzle out in the next 5-10 years- it will improve, likely by a large amount, but I'm not sure that I see it transforming society like many people are predicting (mass job displacement) I think human intelligence, creativity, and agency is vastly underrated. Consider autonomous vehicles: a decade ago they seemed imminent, but proved far more complex than anticipated. I think the same may happen with Ai. (I do think however that Ai will transform the field of medicine)

I think AI can revolutionize drug development and may be helpful at various medical tasks. I do fear excessive reliance on it might lead to blind spots, similar to what coders currently experience when they use AI for development. Since AI developed the code, they can't figure out how to fix it when something breaks. In some cases the coding is esoteric enough it is basically unrecognizable

 

[Mad Jack]

We are about to have a real buying opportunity, based on the look of things. If we see a pullback akin to prior Nasdaq drops. We should be looking at the Nasdaq falling all the way to 12,500. I'm betting the S&P slides to 4700 or potentially lower. The only thing that will stop the dive is if Trump makes serious changes to his tariff plans, which seems likely. Heres to you, Mr. Trump, for finally popping the market bubble so I can buy some things at a reasonable valuation once more

 

[Splenda88]

We are about to have a real buying opportunity, based on the look of things. If we see a pullback akin to prior Nasdaq drops. We should be looking at the Nasdaq falling all the way to 12,500. I'm betting the S&P slides to 4700 or potentially lower. The only thing that will stop the dive is if Trump makes serious changes to his tariff plans, which seems likely. Heres to you, Mr. Trump, for finally popping the market bubble so I can buy some things at a reasonable valuation once more

Trump is the king. He will fix things.

 

[Mad Jack]

Trump is the king. He will fix things.

He literally has no idea what he is doing. The same man that bankrupted 6 companies is likely to run the entire stock market into the ground. Which, again, I find to be a good thing as a value investor. I specifically hadn't been investing in tech outside of CCETF positions because I knew this day would come. How long must a recession go on before people realize he isn't a genius, I wonder? I'm betting we would need stagflation that lasts until nearly the end of his presidency for his followers to possibly realize they might have fallen for it again

 

[Splenda88]

He literally has no idea what he is doing. The same man that bankrupted 6 companies is likely to run the entire stock market into the ground. Which, again, I find to be a good thing as a value investor. I specifically hadn't been investing in tech outside of CCETF positions because I knew this day would come. How long must a recession go on before people realize he isn't a genius, I wonder? I'm betting we would need stagflation that lasts until nearly the end of his presidency for his followers to possibly realize they might have fallen for it again
View attachment 400186

As a republican, I can tell that the Trump phenomenon is mostly about cultural issues (immigration a big part of it). His followers use other BS to justify supporting him. Don't believe them.

 

[worthless]

He literally has no idea what he is doing. The same man that bankrupted 6 companies is likely to run the entire stock market into the ground. Which, again, I find to be a good thing as a value investor. I specifically hadn't been investing in tech outside of CCETF positions because I knew this day would come. How long must a recession go on before people realize he isn't a genius, I wonder? I'm betting we would need stagflation that lasts until nearly the end of his presidency for his followers to possibly realize they might have fallen for it again
View attachment 400186

You: “This guy is terrible”

Also you: “I find this to be a great thing”

 

[Mad Jack]

You: “This guy is terrible”

Also you: “I find this to be a great thing”

What is a bad thing for most investors and the country is generally a good thing for me. Made a killing in 2008 and 2020 with the cash I had, beating the market by quite a bit thus far this year. So yes, Trump is an idiot, but an idiot I stand to profit from while others lose their shirts

 

[worthless]

What is a bad thing for most investors and the country is generally a good thing for me. Made a killing in 2008 and 2020 with the cash I had, beating the market by quite a bit thus far this year. So yes, Trump is an idiot, but an idiot I stand to profit from while others lose their shirts

You think you're the only one who buys when stocks dip?

 

[Mad Jack]

You think you're the only one who buys when stocks dip?

Statistically the vast majority of people who invest underperform during market crashes and recoveries precisely because they panic sell and don't buy the dip

 

[worthless]

Statistically the vast majority of people who invest underperform during market crashes and recoveries precisely because they panic sell and don't buy the dip

I doubt that’s true. Most people have their money in a 401(k) and are not actively trading it. When it dips, any dividends around that time will just buy in at a lower value. It’s all pretty automated.

 

[Mad Jack]

I doubt that’s true. Most people have their money in a 401(k) and are not actively trading it. When it dips, any dividends around that time will just buy in at a lower value. It’s all pretty automated.

https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp_2012-24-5081.pdf

The average investor puts in more during bull markets and cuts back during bear markets. The average trader does even worse than this by a long shot.

 

[worthless]

https://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wp_2012-24-5081.pdf

The average investor puts in more during bull markets and cuts back during bear markets. The average trader does even worse than this by a long shot.

They say it mirrors the GDP which makes sense, but the downward variations are less that 10%.

You said the vast majority were panic-selling. That's not what this is saying or what is actually going on.

 

[Entadus]

I am buying on the dip. Be interesting who ends up being right on this.

Narrator: turns out this was not the right time to buy the dip. Wow I could not have predicted this level of politicization and backlash. Crazy times.

I think this has been a good lesson on the importance of diversification. I still think TSLA will do well over the long term, but when you concentrate on a single stock, you increase your risk dramatically.

 

[Mad Jack]

They say it mirrors the GDP which makes sense, but the downward variations are less that 10%.

You said the vast majority were panic-selling. That's not what this is saying or what is actually going on.

For traders, panic selling is common. For investors, reductions in contributions are common. And the variations are greater than 10% in total, as contributions are approximately 20% higher with bull markets and a bit shy of 10% lower in down markets, so you're looking at a delta of 30% between the two

 

[Mad Jack]

Narrator: turns out this was not the right time to buy the dip. Wow I could not have predicted this level of politicization and backlash. Crazy times.

I think this has been a good lesson on the importance of diversification. I still think TSLA will do well over the long term, but when you concentrate on a single stock, you increase your risk dramatically.

My money is still on TSLA dropping and it'll stabilize at a valuation of closer to 35-40 PTE, but will fail to realize many of its long-term goals or be beaten by competitors. Tesla is a classic example of a first-mover advantage that is lost when competitors catch up. Some people are in the camp of Tesla being like an early Google that will diversify into other areas successfully and leave its primary business as a small portion of the company; I think they're more like Tupperware and will fail to successfully branch out while they lose market share in their primary product caregory

 

[worthless]

For traders, panic selling is common. For investors, reductions in contributions are common. And the variations are greater than 10% in total, as contributions are approximately 20% higher with bull markets and a bit shy of 10% lower in down markets, so you're looking at a delta of 30% between the two

That’s not what you said before. You said 401k investors panic sell, and they don’t. At least not significantly. They continue to contribute but at a 10% lower rate - likely because they curtail a lot of their spending during that time.

Just like the authors did, the Delta should be calculated from the mean. Calculating it from the peak of their investments doesn’t make sense.

 

[RangerBob]

My money is still on TSLA dropping and it'll stabilize at a valuation of closer to 35-40 PTE, but will fail to realize many of its long-term goals or be beaten by competitors. Tesla is a classic example of a first-mover advantage that is lost when competitors catch up. Some people are in the camp of Tesla being like an early Google that will diversify into other areas successfully and leave its primary business as a small portion of the company; I think they're more like Tupperware and will fail to successfully branch out while they lose market share in their primary product caregory

It's a lesson learned time and time again. The big companies have trouble with innovation because of their large bureaucracy, and the little new guys have trouble with getting things off the ground because they lack resources.

Tesla was one of the few that became a successful break-out company, but it seems to have squandered it's golden opportunity. Tesla used to be eons ahead of all the others. It could have been so much further ahead than the legacy auto companies, but instead now it's falling behind, and I'm not sure they can get back ahead.

Even if they could, regardless of one's opinion of Mr. Musk or his politics, he has arguably tanked his company's prospects more than any other CEO in recent history. I think Tesla is not headed anywhere good, unless the conservatives Mr. Musk is trying to appeal to (at least politically) start buying Teslas en masse.

 

[worthless]

It's a lesson learned time and time again. The big companies have trouble with innovation because of their large bureaucracy, and the little new guys have trouble with getting things off the ground because they lack resources.

Tesla was one of the few that became a successful break-out company, but it seems to have squandered it's golden opportunity. Tesla used to be eons ahead of all the others. It could have been so much further ahead than the legacy auto companies, but instead now it's falling behind, and I'm not sure they can get back ahead.

Even if they could, regardless of one's opinion of Mr. Musk or his politics, he has arguably tanked his company's prospects more than any other CEO in recent history. I think Tesla is not headed anywhere good, unless the conservatives Mr. Musk is trying to appeal to (at least politically) start buying Teslas en masse.

Probably still the best electric out there, but not enough of a margin to overcome the horrendous publicity they have now.

 

[Chemist0157]

1 - Market is trying to price in how terrible next couple of quarters of TSLA earnings will be. Sales are going to be way down.

2- I think auto investing like 401ks will help people in the long run and does bring stability to markets, but I also know people who are messing with their allocations because of recent news. Maybe it works out, maybe it does not. Historically, it does not. It is hard to know when to get out of the market and when to get back in.

 

[Mad Jack]

The harvest begins. Time to see just how low we can go

 

[RangerBob]

Well, at least stocks are on sale right now. Only problem is the "discounts" could keep on coming...

Reminds me of the quote from Patch Adams, "I think he just woke up one day and decided he wanted to become a doctor."

I mean, it's like someone just wake up and decided "I think I'd like to crater the world economy for no good reason. And turn Canadians against us."

I guess we're in for some interesting times. I just hope not 1930's-1940's "interesting"

 

[Mad Jack]

Well, at least stocks are on sale right now. Only problem is the "discounts" could keep on coming...

Reminds me of the quote from Patch Adams, "I think he just woke up one day and decided he wanted to become a doctor."

I mean, it's like someone just wake up and decided "I think I'd like to crater the world economy for no good reason. And turn Canadians against us."

I guess we're in for some interesting times. I just hope not 1930's-1940's "interesting"

He's really nailing a lot of the 1930s setup though. Japan and Germany re-arming, Russia eyeing territory, tariffs putting pressure on national economies. Part of me wonders if it is intentional, as these very forces allowed fascism to take hold before, but I don't think he is as capable of 4D chess as certain individuals seem to believe. In fact, I think he is playing checkers

 

[RangerBob]

He's really nailing a lot of the 1930s setup though. Japan and Germany re-arming, Russia eyeing territory, tariffs putting pressure on national economies. Part of me wonders if it is intentional, as these very forces allowed fascism to take hold before, but I don't think he is as capable of 4D chess as certain individuals seem to believe. In fact, I think he is playing checkers

Lol, I hadn't thought about the Japan/Germans re-arming...