2021 match a fluke or new trend?

[scoopdaboop]

Did anesthesia suddenly become all out competitive? It had a sub 60 match rate for DO's. Ortho was stable at 60+. Even something not competitive like neurology had a 68 percent match rate.

https://mk0nrmp3oyqui6wqfm.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Advance-Data-Tables-2021_Final.pdf

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[Neopolymath]

Anesthesia has been getting more competitive. It's not a one year aberration.

 

[0100010001001111]

It's definitely getting more competitive, but its not sub 60 quite yet. Page 33 out of the big data sheet they released combines the number applying to PGY1 and PGY2 positions so that you can get a more accurate denominator of applicants. https://mk0nrmp3oyqui6wqfm.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/MRM-Results_and-Data_2021.pdf

Anesthesia (Both PGY1 and 2) had 263 only choicers, 220 first choicers and 35 not first choice for a total of 518 applicants.
It also had 268 DO PGY1 and 69 DO PGY2s match, total of 337.

That gives a match rate of ~65% for DO applicants. If you removed the 35 not-first-choices, you have a max of around 70% matched.

It hardly changes the point that all of this is getting more competitive, but I just wanted to show how to remove some of the obscurity NRMP builds into its data sheets. These calcs apply to every specialty that can be categorical and advanced, like neuro and rads. Neuro for example, had 85% and 95% match rates for whether you include first chociers or not.

 

[calivianya]

Rads was nasty, too - much worse than 2020 for both IR and DR, no matter how you look at it. IR was straight up abysmal.

I was going to apply IR/DR and then to a few IM programs as a backup, but looking at the data overall for this year, I’m going to apply IM as if it were my first choice, too. With a lot of these specialties and these ~60-70% numbers, I almost think you’d have to be crazy not to apply hard to a primary care specialty, even “just” as a backup.

 

[Davidfromcali]

I’ve got some friends that have been interested in gas since ms1; seems to be a lot of interest these days. I guess the CRNA’s really aren’t scaring people away

 

[BoneWizard]

If you just want to see if a specialty is more competitive year to year, it might be easier to compare the match rate for individuals who applied to only one specialty since that data is published with all positions combined without ambiguity over who applied categorical vs advanced.

2020:

2021:

2020 match rate:
Anesthesiology: 86.4%
Ortho: 74.6%
Neuro: 93.5%

2021 match rate:
Anesthesiology: 77.6%
Ortho: 72.7%
Neuro: 93.6%

So it looks like anesthesia got a little more competitive from last year. Ortho and neuro are about the same.

 

[Steve_Zissou]

Rads was nasty, too - much worse than 2020 for both IR and DR, no matter how you look at it. IR was straight up abysmal.

I was going to apply IR/DR and then to a few IM programs as a backup, but looking at the data overall for this year, I’m going to apply IM as if it were my first choice, too. With a lot of these specialties and these ~60-70% numbers, I almost think you’d have to be crazy not to apply hard to a primary care specialty, even “just” as a backup.

Well ****, I’m only applying DR, hope it doesn’t bite me in the ass.

 

[Ho0v-man]

I was surprised by anesthesia this year. Know of some ballers who fell way down their lists.

I felt like rads was rough. Based on the advice I got prior to the season, I thought for sure I wouldn’t have trouble getting interviews I wanted.

But anesthesia was MUCH worse IMO. I consider myself relatively knowledgeable about this stuff. But 18 months ago I absolutely would have told a DO with 220s/230s they were GTG got gas. Not after what I saw this last match.

 

[scoopdaboop]

yeah looks like DO's suffered from not being able to probably audition/have face to face contact and their personalities/work ethic shine.

 

[Ho0v-man]

yeah looks like DO's suffered from not being able to probably audition/have face to face contact and their personalities/work ethic shine.

We really just didn’t benefit from MDs canceling interviews like in normal years.

 

[DOVinciRobot]

I was surprised by anesthesia this year. Know of some ballers who fell way down their lists.

I felt like rads was rough. Based on the advice I got prior to the season, I thought for sure I wouldn’t have trouble getting interviews I wanted.

But anesthesia was MUCH worse IMO. I consider myself relatively knowledgeable about this stuff. But 18 months ago I absolutely would have told a DO with 220s/230s they were GTG got gas. Not after what I saw this last match.

The one big surprise in my class of a person not matching was an anesthesia applicant. Had some solid invites too. I’m with you, I also would have told someone with those scores to not stress it in the past. Not anymore

 

[Mad Jack]

DOs got slammed in psychiatry too, from 256 matched/43 unmatched in 2020 to 230 matched/83 unmatched in 2021, ouch.

 

[MDMechEngr]

PM&R got more competitive too? It got slightly easier for the MD from 2020 to 2021.

 

[DameJulie]

Based on unofficial opinions at my school, the past match was an outlier because of multiple factors including Zoom interviews hoardings, programs don't know what to do with ppl w/o audition rotations/virtual life, schools don't know what to advise students because nobody applied in a virtual cycle before. The upcoming cycle will still see some residue of these but not as bad I hope.

However, the general trend for non-primary care specialties (to some extent primary care too) are getting more competitive generally because of the merger, more applicants per year etc.

 

[Whysoez]

Will this year be pretty much the same as last year interview process wise?

 

[DameJulie]

Will this year be pretty much the same as last year interview process wise?

Depending on the specialty. Some have announced virtual only, some are doing hybrid (virtual + in person)

 

[Rogue42]

Just an OMS-III so what do I know? Nothing.

But I would say that there is a good chance things looked rougher this year all around due to COVID. Do you take the DO student that you could only virtually interview with good scores or do you take the MD with the same scores that you could only virtually interview? A lot of PDs would probably take the latter just off a comfortability standpoint.

These next three years in match will be interesting as next year will show a return to normal or that the trend continues, my class will be the first with people applying to residencies with both P/F and scored boards - an absolute crap shoot waiting to happen, and then the class after me will be all P/F.

May the odds be ever in your favor lol

 

[Nevergiveupok]

I know of at least 2 Caribbean students (more like 3-4 who I'm personally close with but 2 who of which shared me their scores/interview count) who had 225-230 Step 1 and 235+ Step 2 scores who did far better in this past match than their DO counterparts who didn't take the USMLE.

I think just COMLEX hurts more so in this merger than previously.

 

[FutureDoctor5000]

I know of at least 2 Caribbean students (more like 3-4 who I'm personally close with but 2 who of which shared me their scores/interview count) who had 225-230 Step 1 and 235+ Step 2 scores who did far better in this past match than their DO counterparts who didn't take the USMLE.

I think just COMLEX hurts more so in this merger than previously.

That’s just plain sad…. In anesthesia specifically or in all specialties?

 

[Nevergiveupok]

That’s just plain sad…. In anesthesia specifically or in all specialties?

Nah but the Carib grads I know matched at uni IM programs. One of which rarely accepts DO students (the ones who usually do match there from DO schools were stellar IM applicants).

Keep in mind these both were stellar applicants based off extracurricular activities. Both of them were more competent on rotations than 80-90% of the DO students I know.

 

[FutureDoctor5000]

Nah but the Carib grads I know matched at uni IM programs. One of which rarely accepts DO students (the ones who usually do match there from DO schools were stellar IM applicants).

Keep in mind these both were stellar applicants based off extracurricular activities. Both of them were more competent on rotations than 80-90% of the DO students I know.

But still… as an img it’s just such a uphill battle so idk

 

[scoopdaboop]

Wait so in 2021, i just looked at the data, 99/(99+16) unmatched for rads in DOs... doesn't seem too bad??

 

[Lawpy]

I know of at least 2 Caribbean students (more like 3-4 who I'm personally close with but 2 who of which shared me their scores/interview count) who had 225-230 Step 1 and 235+ Step 2 scores who did far better in this past match than their DO counterparts who didn't take the USMLE.

I think just COMLEX hurts more so in this merger than previously.

This is messed up

 

[Drrrrrr. Celty]

This is messed up

Really isn't. Sorry to say this, but the USMLE, especially step 2 is simply both in my opinion and objectively very good predictor of board pass rates, ITEs, and general likelihood to advance and do well in residency.

Simply put not taking USMLE is shooting yourself in the foot professionally.

 

[Lawpy]

Really isn't. Sorry to say this, but the USMLE, especially step 2 is simply both in my opinion and objectively very good predictor of board pass rates, ITEs, and general likelihood to advance and do well in residency.

Simply put not taking USMLE is shooting yourself in the foot professionally.

Doesn’t COMLEX also show similarly good prediction?

 

[scoopdaboop]

Doesn’t COMLEX also show similarly good prediction?

Probably, but i imagine its less studied, and MD PD's don't care enough to research it themselves, nor should they have to.

 

[MDMechEngr]

Probably, but i imagine its less studied, and MD PD's don't care enough to research it themselves, nor should they have to.

They need to measure ALL students from the same yard stick. Especially if one of the yard stick is wonky with standard deviation that are unstable and all over the place from year to year. LOL.

 

[Lawpy]

Probably, but i imagine its less studied, and MD PD's don't care enough to research it themselves, nor should they have to.

They need to measure ALL students from the same yard stick. Especially if one of the yard stick is wonky with standard deviation that are unstable and all over the place from year to year. LOL.

Eh, i just think the USMLE filter should be less strict than the Caribbean IMG filter. Prioritizing Carib grads over DO students who went COMLEX only for various reasons (many of which could just be bad school advising) is just wrong to me.

Of course, DO schools can just require their students to take USMLE but i doubt they have the best intentions in mind

 

[FutureDoctor5000]

Eh, i just think the USMLE filter should be less strict than the Caribbean IMG filter. Prioritizing Carib grads over DO students who went COMLEX only for various reasons (many of which could just be bad school advising) is just wrong to me.

Of course, DO schools can just require their students to take USMLE but i doubt they have the best intentions in mind

That example is a very very rare one and was in IM, which is one of the most Carib IMG friendly specialties , probably only true of one program and we don't know all the circumstances. For the vast majority of programs in rads or any specialty(including IM) the Carib IMG apps go straight in the TRASH(hence Carib grads apply to like 150++ programs). There are DO's who match rads each year without a step score as evidenced by charting outcomes (last one was in 2020). You can't go off 1-2 anecdotes and say it's a trend. I personally know of many DO's with far lesser scores who matched rads, surgery, anesthesia, university IM then did Carib IMG's with scores 10-20 points higher, your chances as DO are lower for anesthesia or rads or surgery without a step score but I'd argue it's still higher than an average usmle step Carib grad. An example I can think of was a 250+ Step Carib grad who couldn't match categorical Gen surgery and had to do a prelim year just to match, while we all know of DO's who match at former aoa programs for surgery with comlex scores of 570's-600's and no step scores and with like 5-6 audition rotations.

 

[deleted1129181]

Eh, i just think the USMLE filter should be less strict than the Caribbean IMG filter. Prioritizing Carib grads over DO students who went COMLEX only for various reasons (many of which could just be bad school advising) is just wrong to me.

Of course, DO schools can just require their students to take USMLE but i doubt they have the best intentions in mind

Sorry I strongly disagree with this. Choosing not to take the USMLE is HUGE red flag, because it almost always means that the applicant was too scared to take it or did poorly in OMS1 and OMS2 and therefore did not have a solid chance of passing. Sure, there are other factors that can be involved.....

Scheduling is too tight to find time to prepare for it because your school gives barely gives dedicated time? Then talk with your school or take step 1 during the middle of your 3rd year.

Don't have money for it? Ask your school for a loan. What's another $600 on top of $400K anyways.

School tells you that you are better off not taking USMLE? Well then it is up to you to decide what's best for yourself rather than blindly listening to someone else.

I honestly can't fathom any good reason why an academically strong student couldn't take USMLE. Sure, it can be logistically difficult for some students to take USMLE for some of the reasons listed above, but every med student is responsible for themselves and needs to be proactive.