Average applicants have a GPA of 3.55 and an MCAT of 28.3 bringing the
LizzyM of the average applicant to 63.8.
The average Matriculant has a GPA of 3.70 and an MCAT of 31.4 bringing their LizzyM to 68.4.That means that a good portion of matriculants have less than a 70 on the lizzyM.
I would define :
Underdog LizzyM <63.8.
Hopeful LizzyM 63.8<between <68.4
Increasing likely to Matriculate LizzyM >68.4
Caveat 1: It is state dependent.
39.25% of the applicants that apply(52,550) matriculate (20,631). YMMV, because in all likelihood this is very state dependent. There are a number of public schools where the average matriculant has an MCAT =~28. Heck, University of Michigan has an average Lizzy M of 71-72 for instate residents, that means by definition half of the class has a LizzyM less then 71!
Caveat 2:Having a productive school list matters.
Applying to schools that screen or have averages for classes that are widely different than your own may lead to heartbreak.
Caveat 3. Not all GPAs are made alike, certain schools assign a higher value to top 20 institutions.
Caveat 4: Red flags like criminal history and IA and Green Flags like URM/Veteran states means all bets are off.
Caveat 5: Analysis only applies to MD schools.
Caveat 6. Timing Matters
Applying may help, but it may just be that people who apply early also have LizzyMs in the 70s.
Most of you fall in the hopeful and likely to matriculate category!