Options and real estate wedlock - a beginner level trade on a real estate backed asset

[cyanide12345678]

From a chartist standpoint should be near resistance around $3 dollar mark from the 2009 lows. Anything that slices through that and its in uncharted territory and freefall risk. Once again, I'm a chartist not a overall picture kind of guy. I'd play the bounce with calls with a stop loss at share price 2.95 but taking shares at $2.60 is still risky in my opinion. If it hits 2s , could easily be looking at 1s very soon.

From an overall picture - a share price of $2 gives them a 1.2B market cap making their real estate worth 12B - current book value of their real estate portfolio sits at 19B for an enterprise book value around 8.5B after accounting for debt.

So a $2 price is 1/7th the value of what their book value is. Kinda incredible if it falls to that point,

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[Groove]

I’m planning on going back and going over all financials for mpw again.

The number of shorted shares keeps increasing. The first rate drop and this thing will pop. Another rate hike and we’re looking at new lows.

I opened 125 more contracts today and now hold 775 $3 contracts - $31k in premium.

I’m trying to decide what to do if it drops below $3. They all seem like very reasonable choices as long as mpw does not go bankrupt.

3 options

1) take the shares - cost basis of $2.6 - not bad at all. Take dividends, and sell either 45 day $3 strike calls every 21 days until mpw closes above $3 or a 1 year call with $5 strike. The 1 year call would be a long term capital gains play.

2) extend time to April, drop strike to $2.5, while increase position size to 1000 contracts for a more or less break even trade.

3) continue to hold $3 strike even in the money and roll over every 21 days to continue getting theta decay. Won’t get dividends, but this will use slightly less buying power than buying all those shares.

Im okay doing all the above. Thoughts on what’s the best choice? I hate owning shares now of anything, haven’t owned anything for 3 years. But on paper, the current valuation of the real estate and cash flow is better than almost every private syndication out there with the added benefit of liquidity and ability to milk options premiums.

Whatever takes the most advantage of the continued downward momentum. It's still utterly and completely bearish.

 

[Groove]

From a chartist standpoint should be near resistance around $3 dollar mark from the 2009 lows. Anything that slices through that and its in uncharted territory and freefall risk. Once again, I'm a chartist not a overall picture kind of guy. I'd play the bounce with calls with a stop loss at share price 2.95 but taking shares at $2.60 is still risky in my opinion. If it hits 2s , could easily be looking at 1s very soon.

Nice eye. 2.76 was the low round about March 2nd, 2009 and does indeed appear to be support on long term timeframe.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Folded save -_-

Ugh. Should have closed yesterday. Shouldn’t have been greedy.

 

[thegenius]

Folded save -_-

Ugh. Should have closed yesterday. Shouldn’t have been greedy.

Yea I've got -2 Feb 10C / +2 July 10C and that's down as well. but the net debit on that was only 0.99/contract. There was talk Spirit might go bankrupt? Seems like if they do...they will just be bought out by someone anyway. It's a safe (albeit via a decaying asset) way to play for a bounce in the next 6 months.

 

[thegenius]

I’m planning on going back and going over all financials for mpw again.

The number of shorted shares keeps increasing. The first rate drop and this thing will pop. Another rate hike and we’re looking at new lows.

I opened 125 more contracts today and now hold 775 $3 contracts - $31k in premium.

I’m trying to decide what to do if it drops below $3. They all seem like very reasonable choices as long as mpw does not go bankrupt.

3 options

1) take the shares - cost basis of $2.6 - not bad at all. Take dividends, and sell either 45 day $3 strike calls every 21 days until mpw closes above $3 or a 1 year call with $5 strike. The 1 year call would be a long term capital gains play.

2) extend time to April, drop strike to $2.5, while increase position size to 1000 contracts for a more or less break even trade.

3) continue to hold $3 strike even in the money and roll over every 21 days to continue getting theta decay. Won’t get dividends, but this will use slightly less buying power than buying all those shares.

Im okay doing all the above. Thoughts on what’s the best choice? I hate owning shares now of anything, haven’t owned anything for 3 years. But on paper, the current valuation of the real estate and cash flow is better than almost every private syndication out there with the added benefit of liquidity and ability to milk options premiums.

I don't know man. it can continue to go down to 1. It can go down as far as investors want it to go down. Markets move more on emotion than fundamentals, especially the short term. This might result in finding an undervalued asset, and if that is the case then just go into it. Maybe DCA into it over the next 3-6 months. I'm not so sure that it "pops" with the first rate cut of 25 basis points. Giving MPW 25 basis point relief on loans won't do all that much.

All I can say is you don't not have a unique analysis on this...others follow MPW, instututions follow it, analysts follow it, etc. I think you know a lot and your research is impressive, and this is all public knowledge and people are taking the same info you have and dumping it. It's down to 3.1 today. Maybe the right thing to do is not do puts and just DCA into it in a port you don't look at on a daily basis.

You'll be right one of these days....but that does'nt appear to be today.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Maybe the right thing to do is not do puts and just DCA into it in a port you don't look at on a daily basis.

That probably is the right thing to do. Not looking is going to be hard though hahaha

 

[valianteffort]

Yea I've got -2 Feb 10C / +2 July 10C and that's down as well. but the net debit on that was only 0.99/contract. There was talk Spirit might go bankrupt? Seems like if they do...they will just be bought out by someone anyway. It's a safe (albeit via a decaying asset) way to play for a bounce in the next 6 months.

Disagree with Spirit. I think this is an easy put buy at these values even after the huge shave down this week. They will let it go under rather than a buy out. Negative earnings per share, negative operating income, a federal judge blocking Jetblue buyout. This is set up to run down hard. Should shave another 50% or more in the next few months. Below any meaningful support. The only hope is if wallstreetbets bails out spirit. There is some chatter about it.

 

[Splenda88]

No real idea about palantir. All i know is that it’s more or less a defense stock that used to be the big hype 1 year ago and people were going crazy after it. I like companies like pypl that have been beaten down over hyped up companies with little cash flow.

Just googled ptlr - man…. Barely 50M in earnings in the last 4 quarters and barely 2B in revenue and still a 34B market cap. Yup still hyped up 😂

I guess it’s for the growth investor mindset, i don’t know how to value these barely profitable growth companies, i have a preference for value and cash flow companies personally.

Took the chance with PLTR. Bought 6277 share at $15.93 on 01/05/24 and sold at $18.155 on 1/22; made ~14k in a little over 2 wks.

It was a gamble, which somehow worked.

Now I am looking TSLA and waiting for it to dip around $175/share

 

[cyanide12345678]

Took the chance with PLTR. Bought 6277 share at $15.93 on 01/05/24 and sold at $18.155 on 1/22; made ~14k in a little over 2 wks.

It was a gamble, which somehow worked.

Now I am looking TSLA and waiting for it to dip around $175/share

I’m just dealing with losses here 😂😂😂

Down 20k for the month. Just being patient, doing rolls, modifying position sizes, and trying to be patient.

Portfolio is attached. Rolled my SAVE today from 4.5 to 3.5 strike and extended time by 2 weeks added to position size with this roll. Started feeling anxious about $5 so went down to 4.5, todays drop made me anxious about 4.5, so now I’m down to 3.5.

Plan is to keep rolling mpw during the long ride to recovery. Definitely will roll from March to April when it’s closer to expiration for some 14-15k more in premium.

Arkk and rut are the ‘safe’ bets.

All in all…. If EVERYTHING behaves - account goes up 76k based on current positions, if i roll mpw to April then that’s another 14k ish if it stays above $3 by April, then account goes up 90k by April - 84 days. So net +70k ytd gain by April if all goes well. A lot of ifs. Just paying the waiting game but it’s definitely hard sometimes.

My single stock risk in highly highly volatile companies is risky. Definitely not recommended. But it’s basically a 10 percent return in 1-2 months so I’m quite simply being greedy. I don’t think either company has imminent bankruptsy risk and I’m banking on being paid for time in this highly volatile environment especially as these single stocks turn things around.

Edit: realistically honestly i just need Mpw position to start winning. That one position currently has a market value of 53k in premium. Not bad for 49 days remaining and 250k ish of buying power (50/250 = 20 percent return in 49 days). Breakeven price $2.58.

 

[Groove]

Currently trading the following:

ARCH, GOOG, HCI, META, MOD, MPC, MSFT, NVDA, VIST, ANF, APP, CLS, GRBK, MHO, POWL, SMCI, STRL, TMUS, VST

1mo performance is 5.3%, 3mo is 15.5%. I had some losses during 4th quarter of '23 and part of that was that I didn't have good stop losses placed and I'd have decent performance but one or two stocks would lose 10% over 2 days or something like that and I wouldn't notice and would exit the position too late. I'm definitely tech heavy going into '24. I need to exit most of my energy positions as it's evident that sector is not doing well lately but bias is a difficult thing to overcome. Most active sectors for '24 so far are XLK (4.8%), XLV (2.1%), XLC (6.9%), XLF (2.8%) Technology, Healthcare, Communication, Financial respectively.

Am currently updating my SeekingAlpha screeners and making lists specific for the most active sectors to see if I can find any other potentials. I use ChatGPT to parse the data into something I can easily cut and paste into TradingView and for some odd reason when I try to parse the screener data it always gives me a warning about "terrorist organizations" and I have to correct it and remind it that it's simply a list of tickers, not a terrorist organization. I asked it which ticker is making it think there is a terrorist organization and it plays coy and gives me the following:

"I apologize for any confusion. I don't think it's a terrorist organization, and there's no specific symbol or keyword that's making me think that. My responses are generated based on patterns in the text data I've been trained on, and I do not have the ability to make value judgments or assumptions. If there was any misunderstanding or miscommunication, it was unintentional. If you have any further questions or requests, please feel free to ask, and I'll be happy to assist you."

I probably have more SeekingAlpha Alpha picks in my portfolio than I usually do but have been following their picks more closely over the past 6 months. I'm kind of impressed by the portfolio performance. They are up 86% since July '22 compared to SPY 29%. I only take positions in the ones that have bullish ichimoku criteria. POWL is an exception but I've been holding that one for a long time and it's a fairly small position.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Currently trading the following:

ARCH, GOOG, HCI, META, MOD, MPC, MSFT, NVDA, VIST, ANF, APP, CLS, GRBK, MHO, POWL, SMCI, STRL, TMUS, VST

1mo performance is 5.3%, 3mo is 15.5%. I had some losses during 4th quarter of '23 and part of that was that I didn't have good stop losses placed and I'd have decent performance but one or two stocks would lose 10% over 2 days or something like that and I wouldn't notice and would exit the position too late. I'm definitely tech heavy going into '24. I need to exit most of my energy positions as it's evident that sector is not doing well lately but bias is a difficult thing to overcome. Most active sectors for '24 so far are XLK (4.8%), XLV (2.1%), XLC (6.9%), XLF (2.8%) Technology, Healthcare, Communication, Financial respectively.

Am currently updating my SeekingAlpha screeners and making lists specific for the most active sectors to see if I can find any other potentials. I use ChatGPT to parse the data into something I can easily cut and paste into TradingView and for some odd reason when I try to parse the screener data it always gives me a warning about "terrorist organizations" and I have to correct it and remind it that it's simply a list of tickers, not a terrorist organization. I asked it which ticker is making it think there is a terrorist organization and it plays coy and gives me the following:

"I apologize for any confusion. I don't think it's a terrorist organization, and there's no specific symbol or keyword that's making me think that. My responses are generated based on patterns in the text data I've been trained on, and I do not have the ability to make value judgments or assumptions. If there was any misunderstanding or miscommunication, it was unintentional. If you have any further questions or requests, please feel free to ask, and I'll be happy to assist you."

I probably have more SeekingAlpha Alpha picks in my portfolio than I usually do but have been following their picks more closely over the past 6 months. I'm kind of impressed by the portfolio performance. They are up 86% since July '22 compared to SPY 29%. I only take positions in the ones that have bullish ichimoku criteria. POWL is an exception but I've been holding that one for a long time and it's a fairly small position.

After a lot of maneuvering, trading, position size adjustments, im finally in the green for the year. Trailing sp500 for the year, but current positions set to gain almost 69k more in 70 ish days. Should be positive 70k by April if things go well.

Maneuvered around with SAVE to get back in the positive - redeeming my panic sell when the wsj reported about possible bankruptsy. That panic sell had not only wiped all profits but had my position fairly negative.

Holding my MPW bag. Chart is starting to look better - my mpw position alone has 51.5k premium remaining. And if that goes well, I’ll be at positive 44k with mpw by April.

Today i opened pypl. Increased fxi and ewz position size. Decreased RUT and arkk positions to take off profits.

Attached are current positions and ytd results.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Currently trading the following:

ARCH, GOOG, HCI, META, MOD, MPC, MSFT, NVDA, VIST, ANF, APP, CLS, GRBK, MHO, POWL, SMCI, STRL, TMUS, VST

1mo performance is 5.3%, 3mo is 15.5%. I had some losses during 4th quarter of '23 and part of that was that I didn't have good stop losses placed and I'd have decent performance but one or two stocks would lose 10% over 2 days or something like that and I wouldn't notice and would exit the position too late. I'm definitely tech heavy going into '24. I need to exit most of my energy positions as it's evident that sector is not doing well lately but bias is a difficult thing to overcome. Most active sectors for '24 so far are XLK (4.8%), XLV (2.1%), XLC (6.9%), XLF (2.8%) Technology, Healthcare, Communication, Financial respectively.

Am currently updating my SeekingAlpha screeners and making lists specific for the most active sectors to see if I can find any other potentials. I use ChatGPT to parse the data into something I can easily cut and paste into TradingView and for some odd reason when I try to parse the screener data it always gives me a warning about "terrorist organizations" and I have to correct it and remind it that it's simply a list of tickers, not a terrorist organization. I asked it which ticker is making it think there is a terrorist organization and it plays coy and gives me the following:

"I apologize for any confusion. I don't think it's a terrorist organization, and there's no specific symbol or keyword that's making me think that. My responses are generated based on patterns in the text data I've been trained on, and I do not have the ability to make value judgments or assumptions. If there was any misunderstanding or miscommunication, it was unintentional. If you have any further questions or requests, please feel free to ask, and I'll be happy to assist you."

I probably have more SeekingAlpha Alpha picks in my portfolio than I usually do but have been following their picks more closely over the past 6 months. I'm kind of impressed by the portfolio performance. They are up 86% since July '22 compared to SPY 29%. I only take positions in the ones that have bullish ichimoku criteria. POWL is an exception but I've been holding that one for a long time and it's a fairly small position.

Groove - you liking the chart for mpw better now 😂?

 

[cyanide12345678]

Very very likely the following is my next syndication investment of 25k.

https://static.madedaily.com/files/a9dcc4bb-0d75-4cc8-95a3-ca1587c595c3/61496/LOEWS%20OM%20VF.pdf

 

[JacobMcCandles]

For the MPW fans: Steward Saga Shines Light On Pattern Of Financial Troubles For Largest U.S. Hospital Landlord

 

[valianteffort]

After a lot of maneuvering, trading, position size adjustments, im finally in the green for the year. Trailing sp500 for the year, but current positions set to gain almost 69k more in 70 ish days. Should be positive 70k by April if things go well.

Maneuvered around with SAVE to get back in the positive - redeeming my panic sell when the wsj reported about possible bankruptsy. That panic sell had not only wiped all profits but had my position fairly negative.

Holding my MPW bag. Chart is starting to look better - my mpw position alone has 51.5k premium remaining. And if that goes well, I’ll be at positive 44k with mpw by April.

Today i opened pypl. Increased fxi and ewz position size. Decreased RUT and arkk positions to take off profits.

Attached are current positions and ytd results.

Did you open paypal puts or sell cash secured puts on it?

 

[cyanide12345678]

Did you open paypal puts or sell cash secured puts on it?

I only sell naked puts.

15 percent capital needed for pypl position.

25 puts at $42.5 strike basically required just s little over $16000 of capital.

98 days. $1200/16000. 7.5 percent return on capital with 24% downside protection and prices not seen since 2017 for pypl.

 

[cyanide12345678]

For the MPW fans: Steward Saga Shines Light On Pattern Of Financial Troubles For Largest U.S. Hospital Landlord

Why do you think it’s dropped from $24 to $3.28?

Steward and prospect.

Old news. The market is more or less expecting steward to go through bankruptsy at this point.

off the top of my head, last 12 month revenue was 1.2B. All leases NNN. So few expenses.

Even if you exclude the entire portfolio of steward - which is 20 percent of the total revenue - even then it’s cash flow positive.

The 44000 bed portfolio is being valued at 12.5 billion when it’s probably worth 17B if you add a discounted value of steward assets. If you exclude steward, its probably worth still around 14-15B just in real estate.

Either way….i have a 300k bet. The company isn’t going bankrupt anytime soon, a slow recovery will be thousands and thousands in premium.

 

[cyanide12345678]

For the MPW fans: Steward Saga Shines Light On Pattern Of Financial Troubles For Largest U.S. Hospital Landlord

What is a lot more educational than a news story is an earnings report. Read all the numbers, the supplemental data, the financial reports. Hard numbers. Facts on how much was received in cash, how much was loaned, and what the loan contingencies and collateral was.

Last quarter, every single tenant other than steward paid cash rent.

End of 2023 prospect went on defferal and they’ve resumed cash payments as well with some catch up payments.

There’s been 2 years of bad news. One after another they’ve actually dealt with things - dropped steward from 30% of portfolio to 20 percent. Sold Aussie portfolio and paid off all 2024 debt obligations. Sold steward utah assets to Yale at a 5.7 cap rate. Had prospect buildings taken over by spirit health. Sued hedgeeye and actually won the lawsuits lol. And that was all this year.

Actually go back to their previous reports, you’ll see this isn’t the first or last tenant bankruptsy for them - they’ve gone through a handful of bankruptcies - almost all they eventually came out 90% whole (like literally got their rents due as well). Adeptus health (first choice ER) in Texas had some 70-80 freestanding buildings - they squeezed out every penny they were owed in bankruptsy.

With each loan, what they’ve done is that they’ve collateralized good parts of the business. Read the mpw report in January where they announced the 60M loan - see how they’ve cross collateralized every single asset that steward owns - and some parts of their business - like their managed care business actually has a lot of value. so it’s not just idiots hanging out millions. They are using that money as leverage to own the bankruptsy process if the business goes bust.

With 35 percent short interest, almost no more available shares to short, historically low prices around 2009 level, and essentially mission critical hospital assets that are essential, this is a coiled spring just waiting on some good news.

Who knows - maybe the state is offering mass gen or someone else some large incentives to take over some of the hospitals?

Read numbers. Read actual financial reports.

 

[cyanide12345678]

time will tell how things go. Hopefully i make some $$$. But nothing is guaranteed

 

[Groove]

Groove - you liking the chart for mpw better now 😂?

Noway, should I be??? It looks about the same. For a minute, I thought something crazy had happened aftermarket/premarket but I don't see anything? Did I miss something?

Every time I look at the chart, it reminds me of a limbo game, lol.

 

[Groove]

Interestingly, @cyanide12345678 I did notice that Rida Morwa holds MPW on SA.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Noway, should I be??? It looks about the same. For a minute, I thought something crazy had happened aftermarket/premarket but I don't see anything? Did I miss something?

Every time I look at the chart, it reminds me of a limbo game, lol.

View attachment 382249

View attachment 382250

Short term it’s bounced and found buyer support multiple times in that 3 - 3.1 range.

For an entire week the stock opened and everyday rapidly dropped to 3.10 and then just found buyer support at that level and slowly came back up from there.

 

[Groove]

Short term it’s bounced and found buyer support multiple times in that 3 - 3.1 range.

For an entire week the stock opened and everyday rapidly dropped to 3.10 and then just found buyer support at that level and slowly came back up from there.

Well hey...it can't go down forever right??

One of these days you're gonna hit jackpot with MPW. I don't have enough tums for some of your plays. That's why you'll be rich and I'll be still slogging my way along with my boring trades.

 

[Groove]

It does seem to be in a consolidative pennant type formation. Lower highs, higher lows, etc.. We'll see which way it springs.

 

[gruemd]

Very very likely the following is my next syndication investment of 25k.

https://static.madedaily.com/files/a9dcc4bb-0d75-4cc8-95a3-ca1587c595c3/61496/LOEWS%20OM%20VF.pdf

As someone looking to diversify a bit with some real estate investments, what in particular do you like about this one? I've read through a lot of pitch decks but they're all sunshine and rainbows about projected returns, trying to figure out what makes a "good" one.

 

[Groove]

Man....that SPY is rocking upwards since Oct with very little pull back. 22% gain. I have a feeling the price correction is going to be rough. If I go silent about my stock picks, it's because I'm wiping my tears during that time and advancing my retirement by another 5 years.

Edit: Damir Tokic had a good article on SPY today and I'm inclined to agree. For anybody with SA sub:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669089-spy-up-14-weeks-out-of-last-15-im-out

 

[cyanide12345678]

As someone looking to diversify a bit with some real estate investments, what in particular do you like about this one? I've read through a lot of pitch decks but they're all sunshine and rainbows about projected returns, trying to figure out what makes a "good" one.

That’s a hard to answer question because you can have every single thing in a deal but things still go badly.

What i really really really like about this deal is the cost basis. 93k/key for a 4 star skyscraper hotel in a premier location. That’s an unheard of price. If you watch the market enough and read enough deals, you’ll kinda understand that 2 star hotels are usually in that sub 100k per key price point.

I’m of a firm belief that a building in good condition has inherent value. That inherent value depends on what the replacement cost would be. Any time an asset is significantly under the cost to replace, I’m interested to learn more.

The fact that Loews corporation - you know folks with 28 luxury hotels were willing to pay >300k per key in 2014 for this same hotel and then put 63k per key in renovations tells me there’s value in the building. The market soured on them, Minneapolis tourism went down, especially after covid and the george floyd riots. But from what I’m seeing, things are starting to pick up again.

So that’s really the biggest thing.

The second biggest thing is operator. I have no idea what the other companies are like, but hempel has impressed me. I have 2 deals with them in the worst possible sectors - OFFICE. The are freaking hitting it out of the park with both. One building they’ve maintained a 12 percent cash on cash return for the last 2 years, maintained occupancy at 85 percent. The other building, a very similar deal to this, distressed, bought for 80 percent discount to last purchase price. Starting occupancy was 67 percent and now they are up to mid 70s in just a few months with distributions started as well.

But that doesn’t mean I’ve put in funds yet. Im put out 5 questions to them, still waiting on answers. If they are cash flow positive, revenue beating expenses for training 12 months, then I’m in. I need to know what the trailing 12 month revenue, expenses were as well as adr, revpar numbers for last 12 months. This will help me understand if year 1 assumption of 56 or whatever percent occupancy is likely or not which is what they are assuming.

On another note, if you’re looking to make your first deal, maybe a fund is a better choice.

Fun fact: hempel has another excellent deal coming out. Teaser has been sent out. That one doesn’t have the most amazing cost basis, but it has 2 years of 3.2% fixed debt and a 40 or so industrial building portfolio - cash flow from the start.

Also, today crowdstreet came with the intercontinental hotel on DC wharf. Carr is an excellent operator and quite honestly I’m a little confused myself if i should just go in the DC property instead. That’s one of the first good deals that has come on crowdstreet in the last 6 months.

 

[cyanide12345678]

As someone looking to diversify a bit with some real estate investments, what in particular do you like about this one? I've read through a lot of pitch decks but they're all sunshine and rainbows about projected returns, trying to figure out what makes a "good" one.

The crowdstreet deal was one of the highest rated by conde nest. Built by carr in 2014, operated by carr since, and one partner now wants to cash out, those shares are actually being sold at a very very reasonable 7.35 cap rate with fixed 5% debt in a amazing location that is growing rapidly and will continue to grow especially with amazon HQ2 being 10-15 minutes away.

So 500k per key, cash flow day one, comps of 600k per key and 6-7 cap rates - not the worst deal out there either.


Edit:

https://assets.investorportal.center/temp/79560bad-7760-4e17-8c6f-958108ce682f?Expires=1707551544&Signature=GwCO1ebFwkXNAss8nPaIJb8tALTw-YQQ0UqzHgzPa9JUkeMeTqj5EGR2XDrj56gFkhEy-dj-1JFCXfCYzcpHl4QNds3WaLkhemh63ODbDYao4Q6BGtgB7MR4yKQmo95ZmChDcuhutTQvLNuW~qS6Lrs3wq0mqg3JMP1ZYrPVA1azgt9PG2HC5k6Eeuqqfbn2Sgjcm4QG-7WhrzbAKmdvy3YzoHi2qN7RY3sPKEwv4MyWYttSIxV16oJqwvTeRgYMjAn7MOh5xKMeLF7qAwt9Er3dHeVFm2LIIs2z~d8od~X4dp657FXgmjBPHkY~9zQR7T~FsQaD6Z7bnPN8rLwdhQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIJOVH4IIB5ZGALCA

 

[cyanide12345678]

As someone looking to diversify a bit with some real estate investments, what in particular do you like about this one? I've read through a lot of pitch decks but they're all sunshine and rainbows about projected returns, trying to figure out what makes a "good" one.

To summarize here’s whats important in a deal to me in no particular order:

1) sponsor reliability and track record
2) cost basis. Discount to comps? Great.
3) fixed low interest debt with ltv <65. Variable debt scares me.
4) going in cap rate > debt interest rate ( positive leverage rather than negative leverage)
5) cash flow positive. No 4 usually always means it’s cash flow positive anyway.
6) growing city with positive population growth and demographics that are favorable
7) large co investment. If the sponsor has a lot of skin in the game, then that gives me confidence. Minimum 10 percent of equity.
8) exit assumptions that are realistic - realistic rent escalations compared to comps, realistic cap rate on exit. I always like seeing cap rate expansion on exit assumption (so if you buy a property at a 7 cap, and you assume you will sell at 6.5 - that’s very very aggressive. But an exit cap rate assumption of 7.5 to 8 might be a much more conservative bet.
9) funds > single assets. The deal has to be incredible for me to go in on a single asset.

There’s very few deals with all of the above. But those are things that matter.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Well hey...it can't go down forever right??

One of these days you're gonna hit jackpot with MPW. I don't have enough tums for some of your plays. That's why you'll be rich and I'll be still slogging my way along with my boring trades.

Jackpot would be me having the balls to buy calls or buy the shares.

But i keep selling puts, mitigating downside risk.

Momentum is switching for mpw. Large number of open interest for $4 calls. Technicals starting to look better. Moment of truth about to come up on the 21st with earnings.

I feel very good about my holdings. See attached.

Finally every position is green for the year. Had quite the negative portfolio from the 5 -> 2.95 mpw drop in the matter of a few days and the SAVE drop from 17 -> 4.04.

Today:

Sold puts on DG. Sold puts on Pypl. Sold $6 calls on mpw to create a strangle for some downside protection if earnings are bad. Sold a couple of $65 calls on arkk to create a strangle as well. Closed Rut for profit.

65 days remaining. 65k of juice remains in my positions. Still trailing SP500 YTD.

 

[Groove]

Nice. Keep posting your options progress. I enjoy reading it even if your approach to the market is completely different than mine.

I’m currently about 30% 3mo return and 20% YTD, no doubt from some super lucky stock picks that are impossible to replicate frequently. SCMI is just ridiculous at this point and makes no sense. I think it’s being pumped by the WSB crowd. I’m locking in another stop market order this morning. The RSI on the daily is a completely horizontal line lol. I can’t remember the last time I saw that. I went against my better judgement having a tech background and bought TWLO before earnings because SA/Steven Cress suggested it and it’s tanked aftermarket (so much that it blew threw my stop limit order) so I’m going to close that position this morning for a loss.

Currently on vacation and having slight difficulty explaining to the wife why we are absolutely limited to beaches where I have cellular service.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Nice. Keep posting your options progress. I enjoy reading it even if your approach to the market is completely different than mine.

I’m currently about 30% 3mo return and 20% YTD, no doubt from some super lucky stock picks that are impossible to replicate frequently. SCMI is just ridiculous at this point and makes no sense. I think it’s being pumped by the WSB crowd. I’m locking in another stop market order this morning. The RSI on the daily is a completely horizontal line lol. I can’t remember the last time I saw that. I went against my better judgement having a tech background and bought TWLO before earnings because SA/Steven Cress suggested it and it’s tanked aftermarket (so much that it blew threw my stop limit order) so I’m going to close that position this morning for a loss.

Currently on vacation and having slight difficulty explaining to the wife why we are absolutely limited to beaches where I have cellular service.

How exactly are you doing your trades? Are you just stock picking or buying/selling options?

30 percent in 3 months is incredible.

Are you doing it with a large account or just a small amount of play money?

Twlo is a good company though. I might actually sell some puts on it now that’s it’s dropped so much 🤣

 

[cyanide12345678]

Are any of you guys applying for trader tax status?

I think this year i will elect for it.

 

[Groove]

How exactly are you doing your trades? Are you just stock picking or buying/selling options?

30 percent in 3 months is incredible.

Are you doing it with a large account or just a small amount of play money?

Twlo is a good company though. I might actually sell some puts on it now that’s it’s dropped so much 🤣

Same way I’ve been doing them all along. I’m buying the stocks outright. No options. I have a few lists generated off SA based on a variety of common sense criteria and then I look for oversold conditions. I rotate more heavily into the most active sectors. I’ve tweaked my ichimoku process a bit more and have given a larger bias towards Alpha pick stocks. (As long as they are bullish cloud structure.) Some I’m holding short term but some of them I’ve held for a year. That’s why it’s difficult to backtest what I’m doing because half of it is essentially long and hold. I’m not doing anything really complicated. At its core, it’s just a form of momentum trading.

Well…we both know I can’t keep up that kind of performance. Lots of luck with SMCI, NVDA, CLS, ANF and some of the other SA Alpha picks. When the S&P is up…I can usually outperform but it works exactly the same way when going down. I get slaughtered and S&P may only drop 1-2% I’ve gotten a bit better with my stops. Last fall, I was struggling to maintain net zero and was in the red more weeks than not. It’s easy to pat ourselves on the back when the market is going up.

I use my entire retirement accounts. I used to trade half of it but increased exposure once I got more confidence. Roughly 20-30 positions at any given time so I feel reasonably “diversified”. Most positions are 3-6%

 

[Splenda88]

Took the chance with PLTR. Bought 6277 share at $15.93 on 01/05/24 and sold at $18.155 on 1/22; made ~14k in a little over 2 wks.

It was a gamble, which somehow worked.

Now I am looking TSLA and waiting for it to dip around $175/share

Should have waited for 2 more wks. Profit would have been 50k.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Should have waited for 2 more wks. Profit would have been 50k.

Profit is profit. Take the win and enjoy.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Same way I’ve been doing them all along. I’m buying the stocks outright. No options. I have a few lists generated off SA based on a variety of common sense criteria and then I look for oversold conditions. I rotate more heavily into the most active sectors. I’ve tweaked my ichimoku process a bit more and have given a larger bias towards Alpha pick stocks. (As long as they are bullish cloud structure.) Some I’m holding short term but some of them I’ve held for a year. That’s why it’s difficult to backtest what I’m doing because half of it is essentially long and hold. I’m not doing anything really complicated. At its core, it’s just a form of momentum trading.

Well…we both know I can’t keep up that kind of performance. Lots of luck with SMCI, NVDA, CLS, ANF and some of the other SA Alpha picks. When the S&P is up…I can usually outperform but it works exactly the same way when going down. I get slaughtered and S&P may only drop 1-2% I’ve gotten a bit better with my stops. Last fall, I was struggling to maintain net zero and was in the red more weeks than not. It’s easy to pat ourselves on the back when the market is going up.

I use my entire retirement accounts. I used to trade half of it but increased exposure once I got more confidence. Roughly 20-30 positions at any given time so I feel reasonably “diversified”. Most positions are 3-6%

You mind sharing what these 20-30 positions currently are?

i sold 8 puts on twlo today for April with $50 as strike. 4 ish percent in 2 months return through leveraged naked puts.

Sold a starter position for SQ for $45 strike, also for April. 4 percent in 2 months through leveraged naked puts.

 

[Splenda88]

Profit is profit. Take the win and enjoy.

Agree. I just bought BA (Boeing). Let's hope it will go back to $260/share. I need at 50k to buy a car this year.

 

[anthroguy]

Are any of you guys applying for trader tax status?

I think this year i will elect for it.

I'm looking at this now but I don't think I've placed trades on enough days .

 

[cyanide12345678]

I'm looking at this now but I don't think I've placed trades on enough days .

The year just started. You don’t have to be trading everyday to get it.

Is there any major benefit to it?

 

[Groove]

You mind sharing what these 20-30 positions currently are?

i sold 8 puts on twlo today for April with $50 as strike. 4 ish percent in 2 months return through leveraged naked puts.

Sold a starter position for SQ for $45 strike, also for April. 4 percent in 2 months through leveraged naked puts.

Currently:

ANF
CLS
GRBK
MHO
POWL
SMCI
STRL
TMUS
VST
VTSI
GOOG
HCI
META
NVDA
MSFT
MPC
MOD

Just exited TWLO, URI, VIST. The exit from URI was probably premature. VTSI is a short term swing. I think the TWLO/SQ option trades are solid. I think TWLO will stabilize and shouldn’t drop much more.

I sold APP recently and just noticed it gap up yesterday after earnings. I should have held on to that one. That was also a Steven Cress pick from SA.

 

[Groove]

Exited SMCI, that thing is being pumped so hard. 265% gain.

 

[valianteffort]

Exited SMCI, that thing is being pumped so hard. 265% gain.

NVDA seems ready to fall. Hit resistance multiple times today and failed to break through. Great day of volatility for options today. Puts for earnings next week will cash big (even w split)

 

[Groove]

NVDA seems ready to fall. Hit resistance multiple times today and failed to break through. Great day of volatility for options today. Puts for earnings next week will cash big (even w split)

Yeah I’m watching NVDA closely. I’ll have a very tight stop through earnings.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Yeah I’m watching NVDA closely. I’ll have a very tight stop through earnings.

Mpw earnings win.

42k of premium left in my mpw positions.

 

[Groove]

Mpw earnings win.

42k of premium left in my mpw positions.

Nice! Talk about a stock that needed a little bit of positive news. Still very range bound. Needs to break $4 to get any real momentum. Noticed it's down 3.5% today in spite of earnings positivity. Why no fiscal guidance for 2024?

I'm still not ballsy enough to aggressively trade against such a bearish trend. I'm also not good enough to time stock bottoms and trend reversals. If I was, I wouldn't have to work in the ER. Hope that stinker keeps making you money.

 

[cyanide12345678]

Nice! Talk about a stock that needed a little bit of positive news. Still very range bound. Needs to break $4 to get any real momentum. Noticed it's down 3.5% today in spite of earnings positivity. Why no fiscal guidance for 2024?

I'm still not ballsy enough to aggressively trade against such a bearish trend. I'm also not good enough to time stock bottoms and trend reversals. If I was, I wouldn't have to work in the ER. Hope that stinker keeps making you money.

I don’t need it to be breaking $4. Holding pattern, or even a fall back to $3 is totally fine since break even on my $3 strike is $2.42 and break even on my $2.5 strike is $2.14. So even though it’s negative 1.3% when the entire market is doing amazing (except reits since vnq is only slightly positive for the day), I’m still up another $3900 on mpw for the day despite a negative day for the underlying- mostly as the volatility of earnings comes down and ofcourse each day is another day of theta decay. Plus i still have a decent position playing the opposite end with my $6 naked calls.

I added positions on other stinkers recently

Lyft $12 strike, april expiration
TAN $35 strike April expiration
Upwk $10 strike April expiration
Arkf $22 strike April expiration

Closed for profit - pypl, SQ, DG, fxi, ewz

 

[Groove]

I don’t need it to be breaking $4. Holding pattern, or even a fall back to $3 is totally fine since break even on my $3 strike is $2.42 and break even on my $2.5 strike is $2.14. So even though it’s negative 1.3% when the entire market is doing amazing (except reits since vnq is only slightly positive for the day), I’m still up another $3900 on mpw for the day despite a negative day for the underlying- mostly as the volatility of earnings comes down and ofcourse each day is another day of theta decay. Plus i still have a decent position playing the opposite end with my $6 naked calls.

I added positions on other stinkers recently

Lyft $12 strike, april expiration
TAN $35 strike April expiration
Upwk $10 strike April expiration
Arkf $22 strike April expiration

Closed for profit - pypl, SQ, DG, fxi, ewz

Nice.

I exited my NVDA position, much to my chagrin seeing it skyrocket after earnings but I don't actually feel bad about it because I don't like pre-earnings volatility of that magnitude in well known stocks. I've been burned too many times. I took an AMD position the same day. Both AMD and CLS went up 10% today so I can't complain too much. Accounts are up about 3% today. I set some alerts for both SMCI and NVDA on multiple timeframes to hopefully find a better entry in the future. Meanwhile, opened a position in PARR. I know nothing about the company, I just liked the chart and needed some energy diversification. Checked VIST, should have held that one but hey...can't predict them all. I've got more cash on hand than I usually do and as I was screening potentials, felt the temptation to open a bunch of positions because the cash is on hand which is always a red flag for me. "Danger Will Robinson". So, I'm out of the market for today. Read a kindle book on my flight home from vacation entitled "High Probability Trading" by Marcel Link. It was actually pretty good but probably a better read for beginner investors. It was more of "Lessons I've learned in my career" than actual strategies but it was a decent read.

On a different note, I don't even know what to think about Reddit filing for an IPO. LOL. 804M last year? Really? Insane. At least it will have a catchy ticker.... R double Ds T. $RDDT I should be able to remember that one.

 

[GassYous]

Nice.

I exited my NVDA position, much to my chagrin seeing it skyrocket after earnings but I don't actually feel bad about it because I don't like pre-earnings volatility of that magnitude in well known stocks. I've been burned too many times. I took an AMD position the same day. Both AMD and CLS went up 10% today so I can't complain too much. Accounts are up about 3% today. I set some alerts for both SMCI and NVDA on multiple timeframes to hopefully find a better entry in the future. Meanwhile, opened a position in PARR. I know nothing about the company, I just liked the chart and needed some energy diversification. Checked VIST, should have held that one but hey...can't predict them all. I've got more cash on hand than I usually do and as I was screening potentials, felt the temptation to open a bunch of positions because the cash is on hand which is always a red flag for me. "Danger Will Robinson". So, I'm out of the market for today. Read a kindle book on my flight home from vacation entitled "High Probability Trading" by Marcel Link. It was actually pretty good but probably a better read for beginner investors. It was more of "Lessons I've learned in my career" than actual strategies but it was a decent read.

On a different note, I don't even know what to think about Reddit filing for an IPO. LOL. 804M last year? Really? Insane. At least it will have a catchy ticker.... R double Ds T. $RDDT I should be able to remember that one.

They paid their ceo 190 million.