Stock market opinions?

[Pain Applicant1]

Any opinions? I went in heavy in March and April. I did okay and I'm exiting now. I don't think a crash is imminent and I'm sure it will still go up for the next few weeks at least. There seems to be a lot of stimulus money being kicked around and I'm sure it will fuel the market but really, how long can this continue? I'm not sure but I don't want to stick around to find out. I'd rather remain on the sidelines and wait for the next downturn. That will be my cue to jump back in.

Same with the real estate market. It's being buoyed by low-interest rates. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the next housing crash, which I predict will be in 2027, give or take a year or so. Will the government push negative interest rates or will the crash be significant?

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[lobelsteve]

Timing the market is always a great idea.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

and your opinion on how to invest is.........

 

[lobelsteve]

Fidelity Go Index funds.

0.3% fee, and I put in money every month. Was paying 2% mgmt fees at WF in past.
I do not look at it regularly.
Also, 457, 403b- thorugh work with matching. 401k for 1099

 

[Baron Samedi]

The last thing I would do right now is exit. With how volatile the markets have been the past year nobody has any idea where its going.

I maxed both our IRAs Jan 01 and am continuing our retirement and taxable accounts as per usual. Gonna throw some money at the Powerball and Mega Millions too.

 

[deleted131481]

I second index funds and do nothing.

I agree the market is overvalued, but what do you do with that information? Some people have said it was overvalued the last 5 years and missed tremendous gains.

Maybe the market crashes tomorrow, in 1 year, or 10 years. You have to be right twice - exiting and going back in. Maybe you get lucky and call it skill, maybe not.

Take a look at the evidence for investing. 80%+ active investors do worse than index funds and likely much higher over long periods.

 

[deleted131481]

Fidelity Go Index funds.

0.3% fee, and I put in money every month. Was paying 2% mgmt fees at WF in past.
I do not look at it regularly.
Also, 457, 403b- thorugh work with matching. 401k for 1099

I bet that savings in fees ends up being a few hundred thousand by the time you retire. Nice work.

 

[willabeast]

I may get back into Munis. Fiscally irresponsible states are now going to be repaired by Biden, Pelosi and Schumer. I got out when i thought Covid would wreck things. Wish i hadn't but no crystal ball. As for equities i reduced NASDAQ exposure when i rebalanced. I bought FLPSX which is 40% foreign and small/medium cap to diversify.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

I was on the sidelines until March. I then went in. I've been selling covered calls every week and collecting dividends since then. I was waiting until the new year so I can sell losers if I invest again this year. I was planning to wait a year for capital gains but I don't want to take the risk. I think I'll most likely remain on the sidelines again for now.

The thing I never understood about the money managers is why someone would pay them. They make a point to advertise when they meet the returns of an index like the DOW. Why not just invest in an exchange-traded fund that follows the DOW? Who needs the middle man?

 

[gaseous_clay]

I was on the sidelines until March. I then went in. I've been selling covered calls every week and collecting dividends since then. I was waiting until the new year so I can sell losers if I invest again this year. I was planning to wait a year for capital gains but I don't want to take the risk. I think I'll most likely remain on the sidelines again for now.

The thing I never understood about the money managers is why someone would pay them. They make a point to advertise when they meet the returns of an index like the DOW. Why not just invest in an exchange-traded fund that follows the DOW? Who needs the middle man?

Exactly

 

[Doctodd]

I think vanguard is almost free.

My stock picks were/are oil, steel, cruiselines and airlines. Boeing took a hit with recent plane crash but not much... seems like $200 is the bottom currently. I bought Transoceanic(RIG) a few months ago when other drillers were going bankrupt. It’s my biggest holding.

Chinese electric vehicles....Buffet recently announced his ownership of one. I’m in Li and XPEV which are both up big today.

since Biden‘s win the Chinese stock market is on fire.

I also want to sell soon....how much higher can we go?

 

[Baron Samedi]

Vanguard has very, very low fees especially if you are using admiral shares, which I would assume most in this forum would(opposed to our impoverished pediatrics colleagues).

 

[anonperson]

Any opinions? I went in heavy in March and April. I did okay and I'm exiting now. I don't think a crash is imminent and I'm sure it will still go up for the next few weeks at least. There seems to be a lot of stimulus money being kicked around and I'm sure it will fuel the market but really, how long can this continue? I'm not sure but I don't want to stick around to find out. I'd rather remain on the sidelines and wait for the next downturn. That will be my cue to jump back in.

Same with the real estate market. It's being buoyed by low-interest rates. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the next housing crash, which I predict will be in 2027, give or take a year or so. Will the government push negative interest rates or will the crash be significant?

How long are you going to be in the market for?

If for any decently long period of time, just continue to invest. Preferably in low cost index funds. For the average investor, this is the best strategy.

Warren Buffett beat the hedge funds. Here's how

Buffett bet that an index fund could out perform hedge funds over a 10-year period. He won, and this is what he learned.

money.cnn.com

Timing the market is a fool's errand and no one can consistently do it.

CDs and bonds are giving pathetically low rates. Inflation will eat away at any cash you have.

Real estate is an option but comes with its own challenges as we've seen in this pandemic.

 

[hyperalgesia]

For me, timing is only relevant with regard to my allocation vs retirement.

If I am about to retire, I won't put all my money in the stock market, even if my psychic tells me it's the right time...

 

[Baron Samedi]

Conventional advice is that close to retirement age you should be looking more at fixed-income investments, such as bonds, rather than equity investments.

 

[Doctodd]

Not counting inflation, how much do you want to live on per year after you retire and start taking money out of your retirement? If you are debt free, is $50,000/yr enough? $100,000/yr?

 

[Baron Samedi]

250k/yr

 

[anonperson]

Not counting inflation, how much do you want to live on per year after you retire and start taking money out of your retirement? If you are debt free, is $50,000/yr enough? $100,000/yr?

I'd expect my expenses to stay relatively steady.
Although some expenses will go down (mortgage, disability insurance, etc) I am sure there will be some lifestyle creep.

~150,000 per year

 

[Doctodd]

debt free meaning no mortgage or car payment....just insurance and property taxes

 

[hyperalgesia]

I would have to take out the big variables first - property taxes and healthcare.

With those out of the picture, 75k would be plenty for me, post-taxes.

The things that make me the happiest don't cost a lot.

The big concern for me would be the healthcare - that will eat everything and then some.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

How long are you going to be in the market for?

If for any decently long period of time, just continue to invest. Preferably in low cost index funds. For the average investor, this is the best strategy.

Warren Buffett beat the hedge funds. Here's how

Buffett bet that an index fund could out perform hedge funds over a 10-year period. He won, and this is what he learned.

money.cnn.com

Timing the market is a fool's errand and no one can consistently do it.

CDs and bonds are giving pathetically low rates. Inflation will eat away at any cash you have.

Real estate is an option but comes with its own challenges as we've seen in this pandemic.

For some reason, I don't my strategy as really trying to time the market, although I can see how it may seem that way. I have no problem waiting years or decades for the right time. I'm definitely not day trading it. I'll just wait until the next major downturn. I'm already heavily invested in real estate.

 

[DOctorJay]

For some reason, I don't my strategy as really trying to time the market, although I can see how it may seem that way. I have no problem waiting years or decades for the right time. I'm definitely not day trading it. I'll just wait until the next major downturn. I'm already heavily invested in real estate.

How do you know it’s the next major downturn? How do you know when it’s reached the absolute bottom?

 

[Laryngospasm]

If you have a large sum to invest do it slowly which will help even out any big crashes. Always keep some cash on the side for a big downturn. Other than that this market is nuts. Tesla went up a gm in market cap in ONE DAY! I think it was a gm and a ford but I don’t recall exactly. How anyone can think that makes sense is beyond me. Musk makes a tweet and the wrong company goes up 1500%

since my retirement account pays dividends and you can’t generally time the market it’s all in. But I sure wouldn’t fault anyone for being cautious right now.

 

[Doctodd]

I would have to take out the big variables first - property taxes and healthcare.

With those out of the picture, 75k would be plenty for me, post-taxes.

The things that make me the happiest don't cost a lot.

The big concern for me would be the healthcare - that will eat everything and then some.

how much do you expect your healthcare exposure to be with Medicare?.....unless you plan on retiring way before 65.

Property taxes will vary....do you want to live in NYC or some other city where property taxes are high? As i get older i want to be in the big city scene even less.

 

[hyperalgesia]

how much do you expect your healthcare exposure to be with Medicare?.....unless you plan on retiring way before 65.

Property taxes will vary....do you want to live in NYC or some other city where property taxes are high? As i get older i want to be in the big city scene even less.

I don't know, does medicare cover cutting edge cancer tx and the like? I really don't know and it's not like a supplemental would be a life saver either...

Yes, I know what you mean about the big city. I am starting to crave a big piece of land, with goats and ducks...

 

[Pain Applicant1]

How do you know it’s the next major downturn? How do you know when it’s reached the absolute bottom?

I don't ever expect to buy at the bottom or sell at the top, just as long as the trajectory for the most part is in the right direction. I'm okay with losing out on some gains and don't kick myself when I sell early. When I hear irrational chatter about the end of the markets, the US economy, or capitalism, that's my cue to get in, lol. When I hear the mailman giving stock advice because he's made a bundle, that's my cue to head for the hills, lol.

I think everyone knows when a major downturn occurs. I don't think anyone knows where the absolute bottom is.

I ask myself would I buy a stock I own right now at this moment. If the answer is no, then it's time for me to sell.

I'm not sure why people wait for a refrigerator or their favorite shirt to go on sale prior to buying it but do the complete opposite with stocks. I guess fear, greed, and irrational exuberance come into play.

 

[SSdoc33]

market does seem high right now.... but i have been saying that for years (minus the brief pandemic blip). i keep looking for dips to throw in more money, but then you invariably end up waiting too long. best bet continues to be to throw money in at a regular basis and then just wait

 

[Pain Applicant1]

I don't know, does medicare cover cutting edge cancer tx and the like? I really don't know and it's not like a supplemental would be a life saver either...

Yes, I know what you mean about the big city. I am starting to crave a big piece of land, with goats and ducks...

You should do this now!!!! Why wait? I have a coop on the 22nd floor in NYC and a 116-acre farm. The farm is one of the best decisions I've ever made. I subdivided in the event that I choose to develop it but more importantly, when I walk through the gates onto my farm, life does not come with me. It stays outside of my farm and patiently awaits my return. It's just me and nature on the farm side of the fence.

The land is the way to go by far!!!! I rarely use the coop and let my father-in-law live there for free. Once he moves on, I'll rent it out as I really have little use for it.

 

[Doctodd]

Agreed.....my house in the keys is a retirement home that pays for itself. Might make me some income later.

 

[powermd]

I make about 20% per year timing the market in different ways.

I've pulled out a lot of cash and started trading credit spreads for the last month using a nice system that's part of a paid mentorship. So far I'm up 35% (annualized) for the month with 34 straight winning trades. Right on track with the system.

 

[BobBarker]

I was like 28% last year not changing anything all year. A mix of 3 vanguard funds. Nothing fancy.

 

[BobBarker]

I will probably buy some more MDT. It is one of the few high value stocks that didn’t go up in price over the year. I play around more in my Roth IRA with individual stocks.

 

[powermd]

25% last year, not bad considering I pulled out 100% from my personal account in late Feb, and 50% from my IRA.

 

[Pain Applicant1]

Initial jobless claims, week ended Jan. 9: 965,000 vs. 789,000 expected

Does anyone have any concerns about this? Does anyone think the younger end of the millennial generation is helping to boost the market? Is anyone concerned that this demographic has never really experienced a market crash?

Are we living in times eerily reminiscent of the dotcom bubble?

If there is a recession, how much lower can interest rates go to help prop up the economy? Same with housing.

I say it will be a different market by the end of the summer.

 

[SSdoc33]

25% last year, not bad considering I pulled out 100% from my personal account in late Feb, and 50% from my IRA.

mazel tov

most advisors would not recommend dipping into your retirement to mess around with stocks and "time" the market. you certainly could make a boatload, and i wish you the best. just leave a good chunk in there for later

 

[Gauss]

market does seem high right now.... but i have been saying that for years (minus the brief pandemic blip). i keep looking for dips to throw in more money, but then you invariably end up waiting too long. best bet continues to be to throw money in at a regular basis and then just wait

US large cap overvalued
tech could be a buying opportunity once antitrust and FCC start
international & emerging markets still undervalued but rising, imagine what happens if/when Biden removes tariffs
small and value on the rise, if virus is contained and economy bounces back they will jump fast
REITs suck, complete garbage
bitcoin... ?

 

[powermd]

I make about 20% per year timing the market in different ways.

I've pulled out a lot of cash and started trading credit spreads for the last month u

mazel tov

most advisors would not recommend dipping into your retirement to mess around with stocks and "time" the market. you certainly could make a boatload, and i wish you the best. just leave a good chunk in there for later

I don't advise anyone do what I'm do. But I'm happy with the results of my approach

 

[Baron Samedi]

Some people have suggested REITs may have a role in tax advantaged accounts, but I don't really see any benefit for them. What would you replace in your portfolio? Stocks are likely to perform just as well and bonds are a better safety net.

I'm really hoping international stocks start moving because that has been, by far, the most underwhelming part of my portfolio.

 

[Nodolor]

Again trying to time the market is silly....people that try to do this for a living are not successful

 

[powermd]

Again trying to time the market is silly....people that try to do this for a living are not successful

 

[DubVille]

I'm up 160% thanks to some crypto exploding in an extra account (initially for fun). My real retirement accounts are all index funds from vanguard and small amount of bonds since I'm young. Those are up around 25%. It has been a freak year. Makes me feel like a genius but it was luck. Crypto, NIO. Tesla, tech could crash (my BABA was up big but is now around even). I wont move it, just nice to humble brag to the older partners at work. I sometimes try to buy based on small amount of timing but never sell. Otherwise 401ks are every paycheck and IRAs are at end of month, I try to buy on a "down day" for IRAs probably wont Mayer over career but makes me feel better.

 

[hyperalgesia]

This is deja vu from 1999 when almost every investment went up in value and everyone thought they were investor geniuses, especially me lol.

 

[BobBarker]

This is deja vu from 1999 when almost every investment went up in value and everyone thought they were investor geniuses, especially me lol.

I agree. My mom used to look at her accounts everyday thinking about how rich she was going to be in a couple years. Lucent, Netmarket, and a few others went to 0.

 

[jsaul]

I agree. My mom used to look at her accounts everyday thinking about how rich she was going to be in a couple years. Lucent, Netmarket, and a few others went to 0.

remember jds uniphase, excite, cdnow

 

[hyperalgesia]

remember jds uniphase, excite, cdnow

Yes! I was trying to remember the name JDSU earlier today but couldn't. That, and EMC were darlings.

AMZN and MSFT made it but the mindset we had back then would never have allowed us to hold onto a stock after it plummeted.

We were sharks, after all. Big time!

 

[powermd]

Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

Fear & Greed is CNNMoney's investor sentiment tool that comprises of 7 markets indicators.

money.cnn.com

What's the market telling us?

 

[deleted131481]

I make about 20% per year timing the market in different ways.

I've pulled out a lot of cash and started trading credit spreads for the last month u


I don't advise anyone do what I'm do. But I'm happy with the results of my approach

So how long have you been investing? With 20% yearly return as a physician, you should easily have 3 million by 10 years of practice and 20 million by 20 years.

 

[powermd]

Using my present strategy, only about 4 years. Prior to that we spent A LOT of money renovating our house, paying for expensive vacations, kid stuff, buying into my partnership, etc. Didn't save much. It began to accumulate after I became a partner and all that settled down. It helped that revenue escalated at the practice. At this point I can't easily go back and look at my equity curve prior to 3-4 years ago because I changed brokers and the history did not carry over to Schwab. I'm now using TastyWorks for my spread trading- very nice platform!

 

[deleted131481]

Using my present strategy, only about 4 years. Prior to that we spent A LOT of money renovating our house, paying for expensive vacations, kid stuff, buying into my partnership, etc. Didn't save much. It began to accumulate after I became a partner and all that settled down. It helped that revenue escalated at the practice. At this point I can't easily go back and look at my equity curve prior to 3-4 years ago because I changed brokers and the history did not carry over to Schwab. I'm now using TastyWorks for my spread trading- very nice platform!

Kudos to you for keeping track and hunkering down on the savings. 20% annualized for the past 3 years compared to 15% for the S&P500 is impressive.

I am not speaking to yours specifically, but many strategies do very well and perhaps outperform in a bull market, but can get hit even harder when it turns.

 

[powermd]

I use a few different sources for advisory, since I don't have time to generate all my own trade ideas. But one I'm particularly proud of is a trade in The Medicines Company. I was researching pharma stocks, filtering by certain metrics and chart patterns when I came across this company. It looked like a good setup, so I read some more. Turns out they had a very exciting new drug that seemed way underappreciated- incliseran. It's a small interfering RNA that only needs to be injected twice per year but lowers LDL by 50%, and lacks all the statin side effects. It appeared to be a great buyout target, so I played that with long-dated calls. The company got bought by Novartis and I made... a lot.