The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)

[pezdispenser]

I will give you my price predictions for any stock that you pick. Or I could give you a stock pick with entry/exit targets right here on SDN. I already did it once as you can see above, I can do another one to prove to you this is not luck or fluke.

How about you post your PAST trading record. Since you say you are such hot ****, surely you've already made millions in the past. So also tell us why are you going to pharmacy school??

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[Momus]

I am not a 4 years old, mind you, but whatever you say if you feel the need to resort to ridiculing or talking down to people to feel superior instead of being open-minded to new things and/or things that you never know. If JFK had a loser mindset like you, America would not have gone to the moon. But I know you do not want to go to the moon LOL

Less than 1% people will be successful picking stocks. You are not in the group of less than 1%. That's how "open minded" you are. Betting your money on being 1% chance sucessful is really open minded to you. I'd rather be a close minded person and know I'll not lose to the benchmark 99% of the time.

 

[TheWeeIceMan]

Wouldn't it be fair to say the odd of you becoming a successful trader is against you?

Not if you're a special snowflake.

 

[BMBiology]

It is a zero sum game, and it is also all about timing. Like poker.

In poker, everyone plays by the same rule. That is not how it works in the stock market. They have a team of people looking for the slightest changes. They pay for research information and some of them cheat. They don't play by the same rules so why would you think you can beat them?

 

[oldstock]

How about you post your PAST trading record. Since you say you are such hot ****, surely you've already made millions in the past. So also tell us why are you going to pharmacy school??

I often wondered why the PCAT would include Vocabulary section. Now I understand that they probably want students with a vocabulary bigger than just "f@ck @ss ****" in order to communicate with patients, collegues, and the public effectively. But with more and more schools out there causing admission standards dropping like a rock, many like you would pass through the hoop.

As for why I will not post my past trading record here, it is because doing that would aacomplish nothing without compromising my anonimity. I did offer doing a live test to Momus here on SDN to prove that being successful in stock market by trading it is real and possible. But as I already said this is zero sum game. I do not need everyone to win. In fact I enjoy seeing people being happy with index funds or whatever

As for why I want to go to pharmacy school, I come from a family of healthcare workers and always passionate about healthcare. I have already built a comfortable nest to live on and free me to do the things that I always wanted to do when I was younger. As I know more about pharmacy market, I have already stated on here in different thread that I might choose not to go on to pharmacy school this Fall.

Less than 1% people will be successful picking stocks. You are not in the group of less than 1%. That's how "open minded" you are. Betting your money on being 1% chance sucessful is really open minded to you. I'd rather be a close minded person and know I'll not lose to the benchmark 99% of the time.

You know nothing about me. But let me tell you one thing: it is all about timing. Your money is not real until you cash it out. I have traded long enough to see people riding to millions and then riding back to nothing. Even with index funds, you are not safe

 

[oldstock]

In poker, everyone plays by the same rule. That is not how it works in the stock market. They have a team of people looking for the slightest changes. They pay for research information and some of them cheat. They don't play by the same rules so why would you think you can beat them?

I do have reasons to believe in my abilittlies as, like you, I am well aware of the uneven advantages they have over small traders/investors.

I am not trying to tell you what to do with your money. Obviously it is your choice.

I just don't see the practicality of it. There are better ways to invest for most people. That being said, I have also tried to time the market and while I have been successful, I do not think it is because I have some extraordinary skills that others do not have. I have my youth. I am willing to take risk. That is all I have going for me. The rest is just dumb luck.

If you are so set on thinking it is just dumb luck, I am not going to waste your time and mine here to convince you otherwise. GL

 

[confettiflyer]

Too bad we will never ever be able to verify these claims (by anyone on here) over the next 30 years.

So that said, I'm an extremely muscular sex machine that dates super models and drives a Bugatti through the Italian countryside on a daily basis. And I invented this pill that will make me live to be 150....nyah nayh.

 

[Ackj]

you obviously do not know what you are talking about regarding this matter.

To prove that you do not know jack about stock trading, give me a test just for fun here: I will give you my price predictions for any stock that you pick. Or I could give you a stock pick with entry/exit targets right here on SDN. I already did it once as you can see above, I can do another one to prove to you this is not luck or fluke. If I got it right then, I only need you to say that "yes I was wrong about stock trading. It is possible but I just do not know how" here on SDN ALL IN CAPITALS lol

I'll bite: OREX and DECN. Let's see what you got. Time will tell us.

 

[BMBiology]

I do have reasons to believe in my abilittlies as, like you, I am well aware of the uneven advantages they have over small traders/investors.

Lets find out how good you are. I will choose the S&P 500 and you can choose any 10 stocks. I will give you a week so by June 22, post the 10 stocks. We will start on June 23. We will compare on Dec 31 2014 and on June 30 2015. I am also going to simplify it by not taking fees into consideration (to your advantage).

 

[confettiflyer]

time to revive the old stock market challenge!

 

[oldstock]

I'll bite: OREX and DECN. Let's see what you got. Time will tell us.

Lets find out how good you are. I will choose the S&P 500 and you can choose any 10 stocks. I will give you a week so by June 22, post the 10 stocks. We will start on June 23. We will compare on Dec 31 2014 and on June 30 2015. I am also going to simplify it by not taking fees into consideration (to your advantage).

time to revive the old stock market challenge!

This sounds like fun !! I am always learning more when I face good challenges like these. I will get back to you guys later tonight as I am still out with friends

 

[Momus]

You know nothing about me. But let me tell you one thing: it is all about timing. Your money is not real until you cash it out. I have traded long enough to see people riding to millions and then riding back to nothing. Even with index funds, you are not safe

I know a fool when I see one. To correctly identify skill vs. luck, one has t0 beat the market at least 70-80+ years to be statistically significant. It's great to be young and stupid, learn from your mistake as much as you want and losing $$$ doing so.

Timing! That sounds really great, you got the crystal ball dude! You know the top and the bottom, the next great trader is HERE! Hope to see you in Forbes magazine soonish!

Nothing is safe. Your saving in the bank/CD is not safe; there is inflation risk, bank risk, government risk, hacker risk. Even the money in your wallet and mattress are not safe. Duh. There is no "safe". Life is all about risk, the only time you are safe is when you are in a coffin.

 

[oldstock]

I know a fool when I see one. To correctly identify skill vs. luck, one has t0 beat the market at least 70-80+ years to be statistically significant. It's great to be young and stupid, learn from your mistake as much as you want and losing $$$ doing so.

Timing! That sounds really great, you got the crystal ball dude! You know the top and the bottom, the next great trader is HERE! Hope to see you in Forbes magazine soonish!

Nothing is safe. Your saving in the bank/CD is not safe; there is inflation risk, bank risk, government risk, hacker risk. Even the money in your wallet and mattress are not safe. Duh. There is no "safe". Life is all about risk, the only time you are safe is when you are in a coffin.

Now you want me to beat the market 70-80 years for you. Now that you are being ridiculous. You sound like someone who got hit in the head by the market really hard. So while I feel your pain, do not take it out on me. And let me tell you one thing though: I am not a dude LOL

 

[Momus]

Now you want me to beat the market 70-80 years for you. Now that you are being ridiculous. You sound like someone who got hit the head by the market really hard. So while I feel your pain, do not take it out on me. And let me tell you one thing though: I am not a dude LOL

According to Jeremy Siegel (in Stocks for the long run), in order to be able to say with 95% confidence that a fund manager’s performance is due to skill rather than luck, he’d need to outperform the market by an average of 4% per year for roughly 15 years. (If the fund was only outperforming by 3% annually, it would take more than 20 years.)

Investors should also understand that past performance, even over decades, doesn’t guarantee future success, said Srikant Dash, a managing director at S.& P. “The sample of managers who have survived for 20 years is so small that you can’t draw any statistically significant results,” he said.

According to Barr Rosenberg, it would take 70 years of observations to show conclusively that even 200 basis points of incremental annual return resulted from superior investment management skill rather than chance? Source: Investment Policy: How to Win the Loser's Game by Charles Ellis.

Nope, not ridiculous. Only the truth. Why do you think I am convinced no one will be able to beat the market consistently? You need to beat the market at least 15 years straight AND +4% over S&P 500 for us to even consider you have a skill. For the fun of it, go ahead and play that silly game of yours, but don't be convinced you have skill rather than luck by just having 1-2 good years.

 

[oldstock]

According to Jeremy Siegel (in Stocks for the long run), in order to be able to say with 95% confidence that a fund manager’s performance is due to skill rather than luck, he’d need to outperform the market by an average of 4% per year for roughly 15 years. (If the fund was only outperforming by 3% annually, it would take more than 20 years.)

Investors should also understand that past performance, even over decades, doesn’t guarantee future success, said Srikant Dash, a managing director at S.& P. “The sample of managers who have survived for 20 years is so small that you can’t draw any statistically significant results,” he said.

According to Barr Rosenberg, it would take 70 years of observations to show conclusively that even 200 basis points of incremental annual return resulted from superior investment management skill rather than chance? Source: Investment Policy: How to Win the Loser's Game by Charles Ellis.

Nope, not ridiculous. Only the truth. Why do you think I am convinced no one will be able to beat the market consistently? You need to beat the market at least 15 years straight AND +4% over S&P 500 for us to even consider you have a skill. For the fun of it, go ahead and play that silly game of yours, but don't be convinced you have skill rather than luck by just having 1-2 good years.

you know what, you do not know the difference between opinions and fact/truth when you have to quote according to this or that people. But more importantly, you change your mind too much. You just asked me to beat the market for 70-80 years plus "to be statistically significant" (your words) then you are telling me 15 before switching back to 70. I absolutely cannot keep up with you and I do not think Warren Buffet could either. But whatever you say to help you sleep well at night is good with me. Good night !! LOL

 

[Momus]

you change your mind too much, you just asked me to beat the market for 70-80 years plus "to be statistically significant" (your words) then you are telling me 15 before switching back to 70. I absolutely cannot keep up with you and I do not think Warren Buffet could either. But whatever you say to help you sleep well at night is good with me. Good night !! LOL

Good luck. You gonna need it.

 

[oldstock]

Good luck. You gonna need it.

absolutely. Thanks

 

[oldstock]

deleted

 

[oldstock]

deleted

 

[confettiflyer]

Have any of you tried FutureAdvisor?

I stumbled across it, thought the idea was cool (data driven and whatnot)...but when I cranked in my funds and info, it advised me to sell my core funds and go this crazy diversification route.

I'll probably ignore most of its advice, but it did point out I'm underexposed to international REIT's and emerging markets, so I guess it's not completely useless.

Can someone run their portfolio and let me know what they think?

 

[oldstock]

this week I pick out some stocks for you guys for fun... remember doing your own DDs and timing is everything. Play those picks of mine at your own risks

buys: NQ, ALCS, FMC, HII, KRA, LDR, MDWD, NWY, OUTR, PGEM, PULS, REGN, SEAC, FREE, DGLD, CAS, CPAC, FLL, CRMB, MPC, RDEN, PVH, BTH, CACI, CAG, CELG, CWST, CORE, BEE, AV, EUFN, EARN, INPH, INQNT, IRE, GDV, GIS, RIVR, SILC, SEAS, ROL, RSO, TSCO, TST, USMD, USU, VMI, MIDD, KMDA, ITG, K, NEWM, NCFT, PLP

sell: BNS, DMLP, VNR, EMO, GIM, HAWK, COBK, SEMG, TNXP, TTPH, SXE, RY, SBSI, PRO, ITT, KMP, MKTO, MVO, CSII, ALOG, AWR, BFAM, ENDP, DATA, Z, MXE, JPC, HYI, CZWI, MEG, MEI, MDCI, IRM, SLA, IHG, GCI, ETE, BWP, AWRE, JGG, INTU, KIO, KYN, NVMI, OEH, TTEC, BKS, ALGN, CHTR, CTCT, FEIM, DYAX, HITT, HNH, HT, WCN, TK, TWOU, SHPG, SQBG, TAX, REXI, RMTI, PGP, PRGS, PAGP, PBIP, NBB, NBD, MPLX, MTW, KYE, KMF, JTA, LLY, AVV, APOG, ASP, BMO, BPL, CNG, CEM, EVC, EPB, FIF, FMO, FMS, DVCR, DRWI, EEP, DISH, DLIA, CWAY, HBI, GBAB, FRO, GLD, GLUU, GXP, WINA, WIW, WLH, WSM, WY, VOC, VLP, TGP, STR, PMF, NXP, NXQ, NQS, PCM, NKE, MNR, MON, JBN, MJI, ABBV, BYM. BSPIID, INF, HAV, FRBK, GSJ, VCIT

 

[Momus]

Have any of you tried FutureAdvisor?

I stumbled across it, thought the idea was cool (data driven and whatnot)...but when I cranked in my funds and info, it advised me to sell my core funds and go this crazy diversification route.

I'll probably ignore most of its advice, but it did point out I'm underexposed to international REIT's and emerging markets, so I guess it's not completely useless.

Can someone run their portfolio and let me know what they think?

Yep, I tried this one also but ignored most of the advice. Most of the expense ratio on their recommended ETFs are too expensive and added much more unneeded complexity. Simplest portfolio is probably 2-3 fund portfolio. When you have 10+ funds like what they suggested, I think it is just too complicated to managed and most of the time, it does not make a difference.

"When experts disagree it is often because it doesn't matter." Taylor Larimore

You also need high conviction to hold whatever you are holding. It's often better to hold a simple easy to manage portfolio you really believe in than having a complex one you don't understand/believe. There is an old saying "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaugthered."

 

[Momus]

Awww shucks... S&P YTD performance 6%... Vanguard REITS (my roth ira) up 16.34% YTD... Feel like I am buying $5500 into REITS at the peak... sheeeet! =(

 

[Jibby321]

Anyone invest in motley fool for a Roth?

 

[xiphoid2010]

401K and Roth up 6.1% YTD. Meh, I guess we can't always party like it's 2013.

 

[pezdispenser]

About 12.6% YTD overall due to a large boost from company stock.

 

[BMBiology]

DOW closed above 17,000. 3x its 2009 low

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07...gion&region=photo-spot&WT.nav=photo-spot&_r=0

 

[Momus]

DOW closed above 17,000. 3x its 2009 low

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07...gion&region=photo-spot&WT.nav=photo-spot&_r=0

Everyone is scared it will crash... the hard trade is buying, now. Buy more :-D

Bought $2500 to VSIAX with my paycheck XD

 

[BMBiology]

Everyone is scared it will crash... the hard trade is buying, now. Buy more :-D

Bought $2500 to VSIAX with my paycheck XD

I am also ready for a hard crash


Posted using SDN Mobile

 

[oldstock]

I am also ready for a hard crash


Posted using SDN Mobile

a "soft landing" would be great too

 

[confettiflyer]

Everyone is scared it will crash... the hard trade is buying, now. Buy more :-D

Bought $2500 to VSIAX with my paycheck XD

Dude that's an admiral fund, $10k min...unless you're already in for $10k+. Can't remember your portfolio.

 

[Momus]

Dude that's an admiral fund, $10k min...unless you're already in for $10k+. Can't remember your portfolio.

My taxable portfolio needs rebalancing -_-;

 

[oldstock]

this week I pick out some stocks for you guys for fun... remember doing your own DDs and timing is everything. Play those picks of mine at your own risks

buys: NQ, ALCS, FMC, HII, KRA, LDR, MDWD, NWY, OUTR, PGEM, PULS, REGN, SEAC, FREE, DGLD, CAS, CPAC, FLL, CRMB, MPC, RDEN, PVH, BTH, CACI, CAG, CELG, CWST, CORE, BEE, AV, EUFN, EARN, INPH, INQNT, IRE, GDV, GIS, RIVR, SILC, SEAS, ROL, RSO, TSCO, TST, USMD, USU, VMI, MIDD, KMDA, ITG, K, NEWM, NCFT, PLP

sell: BNS, DMLP, VNR, EMO, GIM, HAWK, COBK, SEMG, TNXP, TTPH, SXE, RY, SBSI, PRO, ITT, KMP, MKTO, MVO, CSII, ALOG, AWR, BFAM, ENDP, DATA, Z, MXE, JPC, HYI, CZWI, MEG, MEI, MDCI, IRM, SLA, IHG, GCI, ETE, BWP, AWRE, JGG, INTU, KIO, KYN, NVMI, OEH, TTEC, BKS, ALGN, CHTR, CTCT, FEIM, DYAX, HITT, HNH, HT, WCN, TK, TWOU, SHPG, SQBG, TAX, REXI, RMTI, PGP, PRGS, PAGP, PBIP, NBB, NBD, MPLX, MTW, KYE, KMF, JTA, LLY, AVV, APOG, ASP, BMO, BPL, CNG, CEM, EVC, EPB, FIF, FMO, FMS, DVCR, DRWI, EEP, DISH, DLIA, CWAY, HBI, GBAB, FRO, GLD, GLUU, GXP, WINA, WIW, WLH, WSM, WY, VOC, VLP, TGP, STR, PMF, NXP, NXQ, NQS, PCM, NKE, MNR, MON, JBN, MJI, ABBV, BYM. BSPIID, INF, HAV, FRBK, GSJ, VCIT

seriously, no one checked those picks out or played them, it seemed like ??

NQ for example, hit $3.45 low on 07/14/14 and hit $8.44 high today 07/30/14, a whooping ROI of 245% in less than 2 wks.... USU hit low $2.71 on 06/30 and high $12.35 on 07/02 to yield a "modest" return of only 456% in just 2-3 days.... just some of the great few from that initial list of mine posted on 06/28....

and many more are still working hard if you check them out... (Again remember it is your responsibility to do your own research/DD carefully as you are playing with your own money and timing is everything).

Cha-ching anyone ?? I know I know buying mutual funds or index funds is the way... Stupid me lol

 

[trailerpark]

Does anyone know anything about investing in a good vacuum cleaner?

My new apartment isn't itty bitty and has a good chunk of carpet and a tiny bit of lanolin floor in the kitchen and bathroom. I was recommended this one. It's the Shark navigator lift away professional, but I know zero about vacuums, but I want a long lasting good one.

http://www.amazon.com/Shark-Navigat...id=1406789557&sr=8-1&keywords=shark+navigator

 

[oldstock]

Does anyone know anything about investing in a good vacuum cleaner?

My new apartment isn't itty bitty and has a good chunk of carpet and a tiny bit of lanolin floor in the kitchen and bathroom. I was recommended this one. It's the Shark navigator lift away professional, but I know zero about vacuums, but I want a long lasting good one.

http://www.amazon.com/Shark-Navigator-Lift-Away-Professional-Standard/dp/B005KMDV9A/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1406789557&sr=8-1&keywords=shark navigator

Investing in a good vacuum cleaner ?? Sure better than buying VSIAX. ~46s on 07/03, 44's now after a month as of today 07/30 (~ - 5%). Let's pray to God it will not drop anymore (no crash nooo )... But hope people might still be able to make some money with it after 50 years (with inflation ??). Oh wait, a vacuum cleaner will probably not last 50 years... Hmmm what to do.....

 

[Momus]

Investing in a good vacuum cleaner ?? Sure better than buying VSIAX. ~46s on 07/03, 44's now after a month as of today 07/30 (~ - 5%). Let's pray to God it will not drop anymore (no crash nooo )... But hope people might still be able to make some money with it after 50 years (with inflation ??). Oh wait, a vacuum cleaner will probably not last 50 years... Hmmm what to do.....

Time horizon = 40 years @ 70 yo. Price at the moment = who the fu3k cares.

Hope market down about 20% or more in the next 6 months or so, that means I can put in $40k laying around in saving account earning stupid 0.85%... Crash, yes please!!! I always love some bargain. Stocks haven't corrected more than 5% for at least a year now, it's fu3king ridic...

 

[oldstock]

Time horizon = 40 years @ 70 yo. Price at the moment = who the fu3k cares.

Hope market down about 20% or more in the next 6 months or so, that means I can put in $40k laying around in saving account earning stupid 0.85%... Crash, yes please!!! I always love some bargain. Stocks haven't corrected more than 5% for at least a year now, it's fu3king ridic...

Yup nobody freaking cares about a couple of months fluctuation when time horizon is 50 years. But then again, many people would not have $2,500 in the beginning to play with

Anyhoo I was right again about the 50 year horizon (v. 40 years @ 70. Fingercross that you will live until 100 to enjoy all that money). Damn luck !! Yay !! Chaching !!

 

[Momus]

Doubling down on the dips today... $2500 from regular pay check, $2500 from saving. DOW 300 off. Some bargain lol.

 

[oldstock]

Doubling down on the dips today... $2500 from regular pay check, $2500 from saving. DOW 300 off. Some bargain lol.

let's check back in 50 years.... jk LOL

 

[Ackj]

Does anyone know anything about investing in a good vacuum cleaner?

My new apartment isn't itty bitty and has a good chunk of carpet and a tiny bit of lanolin floor in the kitchen and bathroom. I was recommended this one. It's the Shark navigator lift away professional, but I know zero about vacuums, but I want a long lasting good one.

Sounds messy. Not sure a vacuum would take care of that.

 

[trailerpark]

Linoleum! But seriously, what's a good vacuum!?

 

[Momus]

Futures down 99 points on the DOW. Woot! Converting Trad IRA to ROTH, buying $5500 into REITS <3. Finally caught a break for me to buy this year... waited too long, should have bought it in January 1st (REITS is up more than 15% YTD... ;-; ), never again.

 

[oldstock]

Futures down 99 points on the DOW. Woot! Converting Trad IRA to ROTH, buying $5500 into REITS <3. Finally caught a break for me to buy this year... waited too long, should have bought it in January 1st (REITS is up more than 15% YTD... ;-; ), never again.

shoulda woulda coulda.... I think i've heard these somewhere before.... 15% ?? Hmmmm..... GL !!

 

[oldstock]

Everyone is scared it will crash... the hard trade is buying, now. Buy more :-D

Bought $2500 to VSIAX with my paycheck XD

Investing in a good vacuum cleaner ?? Sure better than buying VSIAX. ~46s on 07/03, 44's now after a month as of today 07/30 (~ - 5%). Let's pray to God it will not drop anymore (no crash nooo )... But hope people might still be able to make some money with it after 50 years (with inflation ??). Oh wait, a vacuum cleaner will probably not last 50 years... Hmmm what to do.....

Doubling down on the dips today... $2500 from regular pay check, $2500 from saving. DOW 300 off. Some bargain lol.

looking at the VSIAX charts, I see resistance ~ 44's-46's. Good buy should be just under 40's for a good gain in a time horizon of ~ 3-12 months. GL

 

[Momus]

Hoping DOW to test 200 days support at or below 16,333 so I can put more money in. Still have $30k cash left to invest. The more it drops, the happier I am. Crash, yes please (20% or more lol)!

 

[BMBiology]

Damn, Walgreens is down 16%. No tax inversion.

 

[Momus]

Damn, Walgreens is down 16%. No tax inversion.

Not a single fu3k given. XD

Pez is probably sad tho lol.

 

[pezdispenser]

Not a single fu3k given. XD

Pez is probably sad tho lol.

Yeah I got HOSED. Guess I'll be on beans and rice, rice and beans for a while to scrape together the money to buy some more shares

 

[BMBiology]

Rite aid did too. It is now < 6 from a high of 8.62.

 

[oldstock]

Damn, Walgreens is down 16%. No tax inversion.

Yeah I got HOSED. Guess I'll be on beans and rice, rice and beans for a while to scrape together the money to buy some more shares

Sorry to hear....

Rite aid did too. It is now < 6 from a high of 8.62.

Yikes....

It is all about the timing indeed. You are never safe until you cash out.....