GPA and DAT score- How competitive are you?

GPA and DAT score- How competitive are you?
A frequently asked question by SDNers is: my DAT scores are x, y and z, and my GPA is s and ns. What are my chances for admission? While other relevant criteria will have a definite influence on adcoms in determining admission or rejection, the DAT and GPA scores are the most readily available for consideration. The following information may be of interest to those awaiting a response and for the under 3.0 club. Let us examine this question and hopefully dispel some myths and misinterpretations.

DAT Scores
Some academic institutions place greater importance on the DAT scores than on the GPA scores. There is evidence (http://www.ada.org/prof/ed/testing/dat/dat_estimate_score.pdf) to support the fact that DAT (AA and TS) scores are a better predictor of first year performance than the predental GPA.The DAT scores also correlate well with the NBDE scores, while PA scores appear to correlate well with technique performance during dental school.

Relevance of review courses: Students who take review courses between their 1st and 2nd attempts have significantly average increase in their scores for all tests, except RC. Those who repeat the test without a course showed an improvement of 0.70 while those who took a course showed an increase of 1.11 standard score points. While the increase may not be statistically significant, there is, however, a practical significance (higher scores).

Distribution of DAT scores:
For simplicity only AA and PA scores will be considered. (DAT Testing Program User's Manual 2005)
......................AA....... Std. Dev.........PA.......Std. Dev....Count

1988............15.53..........2.24..........16.21 ........2.58........2,631
1994............16.61..........2.45..........15.96 ........2.79........9,323
1999............17.63..........2.52..........16.88 ........2.85........6,645
2004............17.31..........2.54..........16.35 ........2.44.......11,363

The Gender and Ethnicity statistics for 2004 were as follows:
.........................AA............Std. Dev......PA.........Std.Dev....Count.
Females.............16.92............2.51......... 15.67.......2.34........4,610
Males................17.74............2.51........ .17.04.......2.33........5,168
Am. Indian.........15.90............2.35.........15.27 ........2.22............59
Asian................18.04............2.62........ .16.67........2.36........2,234
Black................14.99............2.30........ .13.94........2.40...........622
Hispanic............16.04............2.38......... 15.49........2.46...........613
White...............17.47............2.35......... 16.62........2.30.........6,147

What DAT scores are competitive?
The table of distribution of scores for 2004 shows that only 2.7% of the candidates who took the DAT (AA) scored above 22 (23 -1.6%; 24-0.7%; 25-0.3%; and 26-0.1%. An additional 2.8% scored a 22. No one scored a 27, 28, 29 or 30. For 2005, there were 4,558 slots for the 10,731 candidates. The enrollees represent the top 43% of the applicant pool. Looking at the distribution scale, that would be roughly equivalent to an AA score of 17. As the DAT scores decrease, the ratio of applicants (originally at 2.35:1) to matriculants increases dramatically. With an AA score of 14 the ratio now becomes 5.6:1. The PA scores generally run lower. For 2004, 2% scored a 21, 0.9%a 22, 0.2% a 23, 0.1% a 24, and 0.1% a 25.There were no sores at 26 and above.

The national average should not be confused with the values for a specific school. Dental applicants typically apply to 7 school. (For medical applicants the number is 12 -www.ttuhsc.edu/SOM/admissions/statistics.aspx). Boston U with the highest number of applicants had the following statistics (Official Guide to Dental Schools 2006-07):

.................Total......Male...female....Afr Am..Hisp..Nat Am...Asian...White
Applied........3,070....1,682.....1,384.....75.... ..171......13.....1,184...1,627
Enrolled........115........60..........55.......4. .......7.........0........37......67
Ratio..........27:1......28:1.......25:1......19:1 ...24:1.....N/A....32:1....24:1

For Boston the DAT scores AA 19.12, PA 18; GPA 3.25 (s)-3.55 (o). These statistics may vary considerably from school to school. The institutions with the highest number of African Americans are Howard and Meharry; Hispanics: UTHSCSA, NOVA, Florida, UCSF, UOP; Asian: NYU, Columbia, Tufts, UCSF, USC, Temple, UCLA, UOP, Boston; Nat Americans: Oklahoma, AZ, ALA, USC, Howard, Michigan, Marquette.

DAT Specific Schools
For further refinement of the competitiveness of the DAT score it is important to review the statistics for a specific dental school. For matriculants the AA numbers clustered around 19 with 29 schools. There were 10 school with AA of 18 and 7 with 20. The PA results were clustered around 18 (29) and 17 (20). (For grouping purpose the numbers were rounded off to whole numbers).

GPA National/Specific
For 2005, the GPA scores were 3.41 (science) and 3.49 (overall). For 2005, GPA showed a narrow cluster for total GPA. There were 7 schools with a GPA of 3.6; 22 at 3.5; 11 at 3.4; and 6 at 3.3. The GPA for science showed a slightly broader cluster with values between 3.2 and 3.6. There were 6 schools at 3.6; 13 at 3.5; 12 at 3.4; and 6 at 3.2. )


Trends
...................................Applicants
........................GPA....................... .......DAT
.............. Sci.......... Total..........AA..........PA...........TS........ ....Count

2000........3.08..........3.20..........17.8...... ..17.1........17.5...........7,770
2001........3.07..........3.18..........18.0...... ..17.6........17.8...........7,412
2002........3.07..........3.19..........18.0...... ..17.7........17.8...........7,537
2003........3.07..........3.20..........17.8...... ..17.3........17.6...........8,176
2004........3.13..........3.23..........17.8...... ..16.7........17.4...........9,433
2005........3.12..........3.24..........17.7...... ..16.7........17.4..........10,731

..................................Enrollees

2000.......3.25...........3.35..........18.5...... ..17.7........18.3...........4,327
2001.......3.32...........3.41..........18.8...... ..18.1........18.5...........4,407
2002.......3.32...........3.42..........18.8...... ..18.1........18.5...........4,448
2003.......3.32...........3.42..........18.5...... ..17.5........18.3...........4,528
2004.......3.35...........3.44..........18.7...... ..17.3........18.5...........4,457
2005.......3.41...........3.49..........18.9...... ..17.4........18.4...........4,558

The above data (R.G. Weaver, et.al, J Dent Ed 69-9, 1064. For additional links: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/q...etrieve&db...; shows a slight increase in the GPA scores and relatively unchanged DAT scores. As the number of applicants increases there will be increase in the "competitiveness". As mentioned earlier a 10-15 % is anticipated for the 2006 applicants. It should be noted that in order to have the national mean DAT (AA) of 20, the number of dental school applicants would have to increase to ~25K (2.5 times the current number).

The Under 3.0 Club
In general, school with high mean DAT scores also have high mean GPA scores. Some institutions are more concerned with the DAT scores than with GPA's. For example: UOP has a mean DAT (AA) of 20.8 with a mean GPA (total) of 3.32, Columbia 21.8-3.5; Temple 19.1-3.32; NY 19-3.14. Others, are less concerned with high DAT scores but command a high GPA. Nebraska 18.7-3.8; Miss. 17.4-3.58; W. Va 17-3.52.

For 2005, the calculated statistics were as follows: Mean AA 19.05 (s.d. 1.16); PA 17.3 (0.77), Sci GPA 3.42 (0.17), Total GPA 3.5 (0.14).
For total GPA- a 3.08 GPA is at -3 standard deviations from the mean and thus represents the bottom 0.27% of enrollees. For science GPA a 3.08 GPA is -2 sd from the mean and represents the bottom 4.55% of the enrollees. We should recognize that there are 9 school with a mean GPA (total) at 3.4 and below; and 25 with mean GPA(sci) of 3.4 and below. Statistically, at -1sd from the mean, the subgroup will be at the bottom 15.8 % of the population.
Assuming statistics for individual school will follow the national pattern, to be competitive, the DAT scores should be no lower than 1 point below the mean while the GPA scores should be no lower than 0.1. The best chance for admission is probably at a State Institution where the candidate is a resident.

Based on several posts on this site regarding statistical data, it appears some of the inferences regarding an increase in the GPA and DAT score may be coming from the data available on www.predents.com. While the information about the applicants may be interesting, the statistical info is, at best, of limited value in gaining insight into the statistics required for the 2006 group. The predents info is not a good predictor because the applicants on the sites do not represent a random sample of those applying to the schools in question. Since it is well know that on the average, each candidate will apply to at least 7 schools, it is also conceivable that, for 7 given schools, we may, in actuality, be looking at the same candidates.

There are 3 distinct groups that need to be considered in evaluating the chances of acceptance or rejection to dental school.

1. DAT Group- These are the candidates that took the DAT test.
2. Applicant Group- The candidates who applied through AADSAS/TMDSAS
3. Enrollee Group- first year dental school matriculants.

Each of the groups will have their own distinctive statistics, including distribution, mean, and standard deviation. Contrary to assertions made, it is possible to get fairly accurate estimates of the statistics for either of the 3 groups.

1. DAT Group-As would be expected from any population, the distribution of DAT scores should remain relatively unchanged from year to year. The available data for the past few years does show that the AA and PA scores have remained relatively unchanged, in spite of the fact that the number of applicants increased; from 6,645 (1994) to 11,363 (2004). (http://www.ada.org/prof/ed/testing/d...mate_score.pdf) It is, therefore, a reasonable assumption that for the 2006 group the mean DAT scores will not change significantly. Where an individual with a particular score fits within the group is simply a function of the distribution, that is, the percentage of candidates that scored below or above the particular score.

2. Applicant Group- There are two components (DAT and GPA) that need to be considered. For this population, it would be expected that the AA, PA, GPA sci and GPA overal would remain virtually unchanged. The available data from 1997 to 2005 shows that the statistical parameters have remained relatively unchanged from year to year.(R.G. Weaver, U.S. Dental School Applicants and Enrollees: A ten Year Perspective, J. Dent. Ed. 64 (12) 867; R.G. Weaver, U.S. Dental School Applicants and Enrollees: 2003-2004, J. Dent. Ed. 2005 Sep; 69(9):1064-72, www.dentalstats.tripod.com/03-04.htm and http://www.adea.org/Resources/OG/OG_...eToApply.pdf.). The ranges (1997 and 2005 figures) were: AA 17.1-17.7; PA 16.3-16.7; GPA sci 2.98-3.12; and GPA overall 3.11-3.24. The number of applicants-enrolees were 8590-4348 for 1997 and 10,731-4558 for 2005. As with the DAT group, it is a reasonable assumption that for the 2006 group the mean DAT scores (AA,PA) and the mean GPA sci and GPA overall will remain relatively unchanged. As with the DAT group, an increase in the number of applicants will not have a significant influence on the stats, and an individual's score will be a function of the distribution. The increase numbers will have virtually no effect on the mean, distribution and to some extent on the range of scores. However, as the number of applicants increases there will be an increase in the number of applicants that have DAT or GPA grades above the mean. This increase will have a definite effect on the statistics for the Enrollee Group.

3. Enrollee Group-Since this group is hand picked, the mean scores may vary considerably from the applicant group and are a function of the number of applicants. If there were only ~4,558 applicants, all would be become 1st year matriculants and the statistics for the applicant and enrollee group would be the same. Let us look at possible scenario as the number of applicants increases.

Changes in # of applicants with a given score as a function of the # of applicants.

AA Score..........18........19........20.......21.... ...22.......23......24......25......26
Percentage.......15.3....11.7......7.7......5.2... ...2.8......1.6......0.7....0.3.....0.1

# /5,000..........765......585.....385......260.....1 40.......80......35......15........5
#/10,000........1530.....1170....770......520.....28 0.....160......70......30.......10
#/12,000........1836.....1404....924......624.....33 6.....192......84......36.......12 (expected for 2006)
#/20,000........3060.....2340....1540...1040.....560 .....320....140......60.......20

From the above table it can be seen that for 2006 group, to be competitive, an AA score of 18+ would be needed. For a mean score of 19 the number of applicants would have to be ~ 15K. For AA of 20-22k; for 21-41K, and for 22-65K. Similar estimates can be made for the GPA scores.

While the analysis is not rocket science, it does require an understanding of the Bell Curve,the statistical concept of population distribution, mean, standard deviation, and range. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Normal_distribution_and_scales.gif.

................There is no escaping the Bell Curve!......

burton117 said:

Wow! Way to do your homework!! I would be interested in seeing the percentages out of 14,000 15,000 and 16,000 applicants as I imagine for entrance in Fall of 2007 we are looking at about 14-15,000 applicants...

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Figures of 14-15K would overly optimistic for dental school administrators and overly pessimistic for applicants. For 2005 (entering class of 2006), there were 10,731 applicants. Based on ADEA estimates, an increase of 10-15% is expected for 2006 (entering 2007). That would place the number around 12K. Dental schoos have not seen such high number of applicants since 1975 with 15,734. At that time were about 6,000 first year enrollees.

In reference to seing the percentages out of 14K, 15K, 16K, if you are refering the number of applicants with a given score as a function of number of applicants, then it is simply a matter of multiplying the percentage distribution by 14K, 15K, or 16K. Keep in mind that the percentage distribution remains relatively unchanged from year to year.

armorshell said:

Hmm, weird...my AA was 3 standard deviations above the mean and my GPA was 3 std deviation below. Coincidence!?!? I think not!

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Which part was not coincidence? High DAT low GPA? Choice of schools to apply? UOP was an excellent match. It is #5 in AA score (~20.8), #1 in PA (19.3), #52 in overall GPA (3.32) and #46 science GPA (3.31).

bruinpredent said:

um...just because armorshell decided to go to UoP doesn't mean thats the only school he got in to buddy...have you checked predents lately?

last time i checked, columbia's average gpa was 3.5, and its average dat was 21.8 ... nova? average gpa of 3.53

just admit it man...armorshell is a genius and he clearly had a number of amazing things on his application that made him stand out. there are a ton of people who only WISH they could be at UoP next year...

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Wow! Can you say "sensitive ego"?

Of course he had a lot to offer and that is why he was accepted.

bruinpredent said:

um...just because armorshell decided to go to UoP doesn't mean thats the only school he got in to buddy...have you checked predents lately?

last time i checked, columbia's average gpa was 3.5, and its average dat was 21.8 ... nova? average gpa of 3.53

just admit it man...armorshell is a genius and he clearly had a number of amazing things on his application that made him stand out. there are a ton of people who only WISH they could be at UoP next year...

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Columbia #2 AA 21.8; #3 PA 18.5; tied with 7 other schools at #20 overall GPA at 3.5; tied with 3 at #20 with 3.4 sci GPA;

Nova tied with 8 at #27 with AA 19; tied with 8 at #32 at PA 17; tied with 2 at #22 with overall GPA at 3.53; and tied with 5 at #17 with 3.5 sci GPA.

Oh, and bud-to-bud UOP with ~2,500 applicants- a conservative estimate- 150 tons- either have UOP on the wish list or are looking for alternative choices.