2019 ERAS Data Release

[Hedge Trimmer]

Another down year for radonc applications. 220 total applicants last year, 190 this year. And what I think is a crazier stat is that in 2018 programs received an average of ~160 applications each, now down to ~100.

https://www.aamc.org/system/files/2019-10/services-eras-preliminary-data-counts-residency-applicants-specialty-year-10172019.xlsx

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[medgator]

The fix has to start somewhere..

 

[deleted573262]

the zietman proposal was a success and medical students have spoken. how will the ivory tower respond?

edit: important to note people are applying to much fewer programs on average. down to 48 per person. was 60+ two years ago.

 

[evilbooyaa]

Another down year for radonc applications. 220 total applicants last year, 190 this year. And what I think is a crazier stat is that in 2018 programs received an average of ~160 applications each, now down to ~100.

https://www.aamc.org/system/files/2019-10/services-eras-preliminary-data-counts-residency-applicants-specialty-year-10172019.xlsx

US MDs - 235 in 2017, 221 --> 190 --> 152 in 2019.

Surprised that IMGs is not increasing on a year-to-year basis. Maybe lag time due to need for research, lack of exposure to the field?

 

[medgator]

US MDs - 235 in 2017, 221 --> 190 --> 152 in 2019.

Surprised that IMGs is not increasing on a year-to-year basis. Maybe lag time due to need for research, lack of exposure to the field?

Or maybe they don't want to get pushed into exploitative non-accredited fellowships or Junior faculty positions either with minimal if any geographic flexibility?

Lag time on the job market too which I would anticipate would only be worse 5 years from now, personally

 

[evilbooyaa]

Or maybe they don't want to get pushed into exploitative non-accredited fellowships or Junior faculty positions either with minimal if any geographic flexibility?

Lag time on the job market too which I would anticipate would only be worse 5 years from now, personally

Meh. I mean if there IS a group of people that would be 'more OK' with that it would probably be those without med school debts who are just happy to be able to come to the US and be a doctor, especially if they need a visa (see a fair amount of docs from other countries during their rural stint to fulfill visa requirements).

 

[RadOncIMG]

US MDs - 235 in 2017, 221 --> 190 --> 152 in 2019.

Surprised that IMGs is not increasing on a year-to-year basis. Maybe lag time due to need for research, lack of exposure to the field?

IMGs care about job market too. Radiology and IM would be reasonable choices.

 

[medgator]

IMGs care about job market too. Radiology and IM would be reasonable choices.

I think psych would also be, and I've heard it's become quite competitive the last few years almost coinciding with the lost of interest in RO from AMGs.

It's seems like residency/specialty choice could almost be thought of as a stock or futures market. The students that matched in the 90s when the job market was weak ended up doing well a decade later. I don't foresee the same thing happening this time though without a significant reduction in spots

 

[RadOncIMG]

Honestly speaking, RO will be more like Nuc Med if we couldn't find more indications to treat. Too bad the academics are busy opening satellite sites than advancing the field.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

WOW!! Canaries have spoken. Average 100 apps for many more spots. The match will be a disaster. Idk how these PDs and chairs are being so reckless on social media given the current market. Some people really do not want to match.

 

[OTN]

Honestly speaking, RO will be more like Nuc Med if we couldn't find more indications to treat. Too bad the academics are busy opening satellite sites than advancing the field.

I disagree with this pretty strongly. Nuc Med was very, very easily taken over by radiology. It was always strange it was separate, to be honest. There's no correlate like that with radonc.

 

[medgator]

I disagree with this pretty strongly. Nuc Med was very, very easily taken over by radiology. It was always strange it was separate, to be honest. There's no correlate like that with radonc.

Correct. These nuc med analogies are very far off the mark. Radiation isn't going anywhere and radiologists aren't all of a sudden going to start doing RO.

What is going to happen is more analogous to pathology

 

[Krukenberg]

Didn't know this data existed, Thanks for posting. First thought is WOW that escalated quickly. This is the third year of declines in applicant #s. Also interesting that Anesthesiology and EM continue to have growth despite their own labor market issues (labor manipulation by private equity overlords).

Also, is this the nail in the coffin of the myth that dermatology controls its numbers?

 

[xrthopeful]

Also, is this the nail in the coffin of the myth that dermatology controls its numbers?

lol we both know people will continue to say it

 

[medgator]

Also, is this the nail in the coffin of the myth that dermatology controls its numbers?

Are residency slots per listed in that document or just applicant numbers per year?

 

[deleted1002574]

lol we both know people will continue to say it

Give it up to The Scarb who fact checked this and gave it 4 Pinocchios!!

 

[Krukenberg]

Are residency slots per listed in that document or just applicant numbers per year?

Yea you’re right I’m getting my sources mixed up. Charting the Match 2019 shows year over year increases in derm positions offered (table 7): https://mk0nrmp3oyqui6wqfm.kinstacd...NRMP-Results-and-Data-2019_04112019_final.pdf

 

[Sheldor]

So in the year 2015 there were around 220 US Grad applicants for 186 spots. And in the ERAS 2020 year there are 152 US grad applicants for 211 spots. That is just absolutely brutal. That means that there will be around 60 unfilled spots even if the match works perfectly, which we know it wont, so probably 60+ Unmatched spots in our small specialty.

 

[radoncgrad2019]

Some of those 211 spots are not real but only like 2-3 max

But some of those 152 applicants are double applying to IM or something and may not even ultimately match into rad onc

60 unmatched seems right to me

 

[medgator]

So in the year 2015 there were around 220 US Grad applicants for 186 spots. And in the ERAS 2020 year there are 152 US grad applicants for 211 spots. That is just absolutely brutal. That means that there will be around 60 unfilled spots even if the match works perfectly, which we know it wont, so probably 60+ Unmatched spots in our small specialty.

Might actually be higher number unmatched unless these programs are matching candidates with no experience in the specialty

From Twitter:

That’s what we guessed. Looking through application not all of these 152 have had rad Onc exposure so real number is lower

Hopefully it's the newest programs that don't match and get the point to shut down after multiple SOAP years

 

[thecarbonionangle]

this is some very funny stuff. We have fallen real bad. The days of people walking into a spot like people used to will be among us soon.

just for fun please post prediction for programs that will not match below

 

[KHE88]

Hopefully it's the newest programs that don't match and get the point to shut down after multiple SOAP years

So why does California and New York and Texas get so many dozens of spots but West Virginia and Arkansas aren't allowed to have even one a year? Again, they are not the problem, and your hatred towards them is misdirected.

MCG/Regents/Augusta/Whatever their name is now... yeah I'll give you that one, but I am not even sure they have any residents anymore.

Programs that shouldn't be filling based on the behaviors of their leaders:
Mayo
Michigan
UPMC
Chicago
Columbia

And whoever else who has a PD or chair that is active with the Twitter virtue-signalling mob or hung the class of 2019 out to dry with the ABR.

 

[medgator]

So why does California and New York and Texas get so many dozens of spots but West Virginia and Arkansas aren't allowed to have even one a year? Again, they are not the problem, and your hatred towards them is misdirected.

MCG/Regents/Augusta/Whatever their name is now... yeah I'll give you that one, but I am not even sure they have any residents anymore.

Programs that shouldn't be filling based on the behaviors of their leaders:
Mayo
Michigan
UPMC
Chicago
Columbia

And whoever else who has a PD or chair that is active on Twitter or hung the class of 2019 out to dry with the ABR.

Sure, but giving a free pass to the folks that have actively created the last 40-50 spots in this specialty is ridiculous. Sorry it's in geographic territory that you are sympathetic towards but it isn't going to help recruitment there and it only hurts everyone.

Add Arkansas, Tenn, WVU, LIJ, Cedars to your list and we might actually get somewhere

 

[thecarbonionangle]

LIJ and Cedars will prob fill due to their nyc and LA locations. I think the good location programs that may be hit will be due to dysfunction in departments or their own “leaders”. Certainly, a good amount are actively trying not to match online. The issue with social media is that it can give the appearance that everyone agrees with you if same circle of people is retweeting you and liking your posts. Match day will be very interesting.

if you are at a program where attenings cannot function without a resident, you are the problem.

 

[Mandelin Rain]

I take no satisfaction in any of this. Our field has some problems. Now the canaries are staying home to roost.

 

[KHE88]

Sure, but giving a free pass to the folks that have actively created the last 40-50 spots in this specialty is ridiculous. Sorry it's in geographic territory that you are sympathetic towards but it isn't going to help recruitment there and it only hurts everyone.

Add Arkansas, Tenn, WVU, LIJ, Cedars to your list and we might actually get somewhere

Arkansas and WVU added 40-50 spots? Interesting. None of those big coastal elite programs opened satellites and expanded resident numbers to staff them. That definitely didn't happen. Hard to even walk around Morgantown these days without bumping into a rad onc resident.

Isn't going to help recruitment there? You got data for that? Common sense says it will. Burden of proof otherwise is on you.

Yeah, my geographic territory sure is awesome. At least I'm lucky enough to have the foods I grew up with (apparently a life or death thing). For me, luckily that was roadkill and expired jars of mayonnaise from dollar general.

 

[KHE88]

LIJ and Cedars will prob fill due to their nyc and LA locations.

Well, you gotta factor in the restaurants. That's like 90% of career choice at least.

 

[medgator]

I take no satisfaction in any of this. Our field has some problems.

Me either, but at the end of the day, this year may be the actual turning point in our specialty in a good way

 

[medgator]

Arkansas and WVU added 40-50 spots? Interesting.

I didn't just list those. But thanks for playing

 

[deleted1002574]

No, @KHE88 having the food you grew up with is not life or death. It’s just one reason someone may not want to move there. Even you were wondering about what reasons people don’t move to rural areas.

You want empathy for yourself and your experiences, for rural communities, for the aggrieved, marginalized white male, but none for anyone else. Hey, that’s cool. But we do still care- the 90% of us that didn’t fail- we had the back of those that did. Doesn’t matter that only your woes and the woes of specific identity groups and people that live in specific areas matter.

Victim culture + snowflake = incendiary posts.

Was it the board experience that made you like that or that just who you are ?

 

[KHE88]

I didn't just list those. But thanks for playing

Dang. Busted! Me and my Fake News!

You said "Arkansas, Tenn, WVU, LIJ, Cedars"

LIJ and Cedars are not programs in underserved areas. They are in oversaturated areas.

So I forgot Tennessee. Arkansas + WVU + Tenn = 40-50 spots.
Definitely not 12 spots.
Totally their fault.

 

[KHE88]

No, it’s not life or death. It’s just one reason someone may not want to move there.

You want empathy for yourself, for the rural communities, for the poor, aggrieved, marginalized white male, but none for anyone else.

Victim culture + snowflake = incendiary posts.

Was it the board experience that made you like that or that just who you are ?

Hilarious. Calling out other people for playing the victim is in fact playing the victim yourself. Goes along with the previous statements that if you are worried that people will call you a racist for disagreeing, then you are a racist. Ok. Am I the only one who sees how this works?

Where did I ever, ever say that I only want empathy for white males and no one else? That is calling me a racist and exactly the kind of thing I was talking about.

 

[medgator]

Totally their fault.

Never said that either. 0/2 today. You're on a roll.

 

[deleted1002574]

No one ever called you a racist not me. Me and my friends are not racist/sexists either and we don’t spend nearly they same amount of time telling people we aren’t racists/sexists. It’s all good, though. You’re not. We good! You’re not any of this -ists!

 

[KHE88]

Never said that either. 0/2 today. You're on a roll.

You said 40-50 spots.
You are blaming this on a few tiny midwest programs. If you want to take that back, great.
Otherwise, where did those 40-50 spots come from?
Should be easy enough to list them, right? Facts don't lie. WVU, AR, and Tenn are 1 resident/year programs I believe = 12 residents. Why you would discriminate against graduates from these programs in terms of hiring is beyond me.

 

[medgator]

.
You are blaming this on a few tiny midwest programs.

Wrong again. You even admitted as much in your last post. I've explicitly stated for the last 50-60 spots to get cut in chronological order several times on this forum. And have also stated why we didn't those newer programs, including the ones in rural geographic areas where you have a soft spot towards, as well as the ones in LA and the NY metro area

0/3.

 

[KHE88]

Wrong again. You even admitted as much in your last post. I've explicitly stated for the last 50-60 spots to get cut in chronological order several times on this forum. And have also stated why we didn't those newer programs, including the ones in geographic areas where you have sympathy towards.

0/3.

Oh, please. You specifically call out WVU and AR every chance you get. You beat that drum on virtually every thread while ignoring the expansion of larger older programs. Your vitriol towards these tiny midwest programs is bizarre.

 

[medgator]

Your vitriol towards these tiny midwest programs is bizarre.

Calling LIJ, cedars and Mayo Scottsdale "tiny Midwest programs." Is City of Hope one too?

Hilarious.

0/4

 

[Chartreuse Wombat]

As of the most current Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education data available, there are 776 residents at 94 programs with residents (although 2 accredited programs currently have no residents). This represents an increase of 181 residents over an 11-year period. Of those new residents, 56 are at programs that were initially accredited in 2008 or later. This finding suggests that approximately two-thirds of the expansion in number of residents is due to expansion of existing programs and one-third is due to the opening of new programs.

The High Number of Unfilled Positions in the 2019 Radiation Oncology Residency Match: Temporary Variation or Indicator of Important Change?

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[KHE88]

As of the most current Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education data available, there are 776 residents at 94 programs with residents (although 2 accredited programs currently have no residents). This represents an increase of 181 residents over an 11-year period. Of those new residents, 56 are at programs that were initially accredited in 2008 or later. This finding suggests that approximately two-thirds of the expansion in number of residents is due to expansion of existing programs and one-third is due to the opening of new programs.

The High Number of Unfilled Positions in the 2019 Radiation Oncology Residency Match: Temporary Variation or Indicator of Important Change?

www.sciencedirect.com

Yes, and my whole argument with gator is that it's not exactly fair to attack programs like WVU and AR in undersaturated areas the same way you would attack big coastal programs that expanded or new ones that opened in this area. The rural maldistribution problem is a separate problem from overexpansion, and part of the solution to that problem naturally would involve training residents in these more undersaturated areas. He specifically goes after WVU and AR more than the others, and I don't think that's exactly fair, and that's all I'm trying to say.

 

[deleted1002574]

Okay...

But, for example, Arizona - specifically Phoenix, is one of the most saturated places for oncology (and rad onc). One can say that Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the US, yet didn’t have a training program (90 miles away in Tucson. Yet, Phoenix very easily can find physicians. Now Mayo is graduating a few residents a year.

Louisiana has so many cancer centers and they don’t have a training program. Until recently, they didn’t have any in Mississippi or Arkansas. It’s not fixing the distribution issue by adding them.

You don’t need a training program to fill positions. You need desirable jobs, high pay, good administrators, etc. And food for all us ethnics. Life or death, ya dig?

 

[metallica81788]

The issue with programs like WV and AR is that they are new and came into existence when there were already too many spots. IMO the bigger offenders are the newer programs in larger, already over-saturated metros.

Yes, they are in underserved areas but there is no guarantee anyone who trains there will stay in the area or similar. More likely they will just run back to the coasts or bigger cities. If they wanted to prove the necessity of their existence there should be some "rural or underserved" guarantee in place that residents will stay or something of the sort. That chance is next to zero.

I'm on board with the chronological spot-cutting, though. Hopefully this match will sort things out but I have zero faith in programs to not SOAP for warm bodies.

 

[medgator]

He specifically goes after WVU and AR more than the others, and I don't think that's exactly fair, and that's all I'm trying to say.

Wrong again

 

[medgator]

.

You don’t need a training program to fill positions. You need desirable jobs, high pay, good administrators, etc. And food for all us ethnics. Life or death, ya dig?

The issue with programs like WV and AR is that they are new and came into existence when there were already too many spots. IMO the bigger offenders are the newer programs in larger, already over-saturated metros.

Yes, they are in underserved areas but there is no guarantee anyone who trains there will stay in the area or similar. More likely they will just run back to the coasts or bigger cities. If they wanted to prove the necessity of their existence there should be some "rural or underserved" guarantee in place that residents will stay or something of the sort. That chance is next to zero.

I'm on board with the chronological spot-cutting, though.

Not sure if khe88 will get that

 

[OTN]

New programs, old programs, coastal, interior...do we really have to discriminate?

 

[radoncgrad2019]

KHE. SMH.

 

[KHE88]

Not sure if khe88 will get that

Again, show me the data for this theory that most people who go to a midwest program really will end up in Miami or SoCal.

I trained at a midwest program, and there is exactly ONE graduate from the past 15 years that I know of who is currently practicing in a big coastal city. Virtually everyone else stayed in the midwest, a decent number in rural areas.

 

[medgator]

More likely they will just run back to the coasts or bigger cities. If they wanted to prove the necessity of their existence there should be some "rural or underserved" guarantee in place that residents will stay or something of the sort. That chance is next to zero.

Again, show me the data for this theory that most people who go to a midwest program really will end up in Miami or SoCal.

Show us that they don't? I trained in the rustbelt and went back to a coastal metro. Many others have done the same.

If these programs aren't attaching guarantees/contracts to their trainees, they are simply flooding the market with too many grads. Anyone can suck it up for four years anywhere and many of us did during the golden era of rad onc last decade. Apparently that's completely lost on you though.

But that's ok because those training programs are where you want them to be

 

[thecarbonionangle]

I don’t think training people in a state many find “undesirable” will necessarily ensure that people will stay there. Clearly offering high pay may not solve the issue either.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Well, you gotta factor in the restaurants. That's like 90% of career choice at least.

If you can get a good lamb Biriyani in Morgantown is clearly the issue here