3 II = 1 M.D?

[EasyEveryoneWouldDoIt]

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i heard from somewhere (don't remember where exactly) but for every 3 II you will generally get one acceptance. I understand that the interview is dependent on the applicant and there are outliers out there but is there any truth to this? or is it like the no II by thanksgiving more of a SDN-ism

 

[Reverb]

Stop listening to whoever told you those things.

 

[BombsAway]

"interview 3 and a doctor you'll be"

Your results may vary

 

[Catalystik]

"interview 3 and a doctor you'll be"

Your results may vary

. . . . especially if you interview poorly.

 

[Lucca]

i heard from somewhere (don't remember where exactly) but for every 3 II you will generally get one acceptance. I understand that the interview is dependent on the applicant and there are outliers out there but is there any truth to this? or is it like the no II by thanksgiving more of a SDN-ism

This comes from the AAMC matriculant survey which tells us the average *accepted* applicant will have 3-4 IIs and 1 A at the end of the cycle.

We also did a far less scientific survey on SDN some years ago looking at “no II by Thanksgiving” and “interviews 3 a doctor you will be”.

The Great SDN Survey of 2015: No II by Turkey = No MD or nah?

 

[deleted938090]

It depends on the post-II acceptance rates of the medical schools you interviewed at. If you consider the probability of all rejections based on the post-II acceptance data, the complement of that is the chance of matriculating into at least one medical school.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

It depends on the post-II acceptance rates of the medical schools you interviewed at. If you consider the probability of all rejections based on the post-II acceptance data, the complement of that is the chance of matriculating into at least one medical school.

Assuming it’s pure chance, which of course it’s not. Every year there are plenty of people who have 3+ interviews and either get into most/all or none of them because it’s way more than just chance. Especially if you’re a poor interviewer.

 

[deleted938090]

Assuming it’s pure chance, which of course it’s not. Every year there are plenty of people who have 3+ interviews and either get into most/all or none of them because it’s way more than just chance. Especially if you’re a poor interviewer.

At schools that have >70% or >80% post-II-acceptance, unless the student's entire profile, interview included, falls in the bottom 20% or 30%, it is likely that they will be accepted. We do not know if OP is a good or poor interviewer at this stage so this is the best metric so far.

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

We do not know if OP is a good or poor interviewer at this stage so this is the best metric so far.

Of course, and neither does op most likely. But that percentage is not based on chance. Just because 70% of people are accepted post interview doesn’t mean you have a 70% chance of being accepted. If you are a poor interviewer or your app is not great but they wanted to give you a chance to prove them wrong, you chances are lower than that.

 

[deleted938090]

On the other hand, if the interview went exceptionally well and the rest of the application was stellar, then there is a higher than average chance of acceptance.

Point being we know nothing about OP, but we do know the average % of acceptance, so this is the best we could do with limited information.

 

[piii]

Oh sweetie, for some people it doesn't matter how many IIs they get, they wont get in

 

[EasyEveryoneWouldDoIt]

trust me i know that acceptane post interview are based on too many factors to have any one general rule one of them being the interviewee themselves just wondering where that saying came from and no the number of II i have right now is not 3

 

[Matthew9Thirtyfive]

trust me i know that acceptane post interview are based on too many factors to have any one general rule one of them being the interviewee themselves just wondering where that saying came from and no the number of II i have right now is not 3

While I’m sure the probability of acceptance increases as number of interviews increases, you only need one to get accepted.

 

[EasyEveryoneWouldDoIt]

though i do know if i am curious about something there are probably dozens of lurkers or people on SDN with the same question. just in class if you have a question or wondering about something there is probably someone else wondering the same thing too so just ask it

 

[deleted938090]

The saying that 3 II is about an acceptance is a crude approximation on the post II acceptance rates. Institutions have post-II rates of ~0.25-0.8, so typically the expected value of an acceptance per interview invite is 0.33. Having three would lead to approximately one acceptance by linearity of expectation. Hence, people have the rule of thumb that 3 is approximately 1 acceptance for most people.

Obviously having any number of II's won't guarantee any acceptance. For three 0.33 post-II-A, there is approximately 30% chance of rejection by all three, so 70% of people with 3 II's get an acceptance (very crude approximation). These stats assume you're an average candidate, so the true rate of acceptance may be higher or lower, depending on how you compare to the rest of the applicant pool.

 

[Wahkoon]

Reading tea leaves is hard.
I like to think 1 A = 1 MD

 

[riverrunner]

i heard from somewhere (don't remember where exactly) but for every 3 II you will generally get one acceptance. I understand that the interview is dependent on the applicant and there are outliers out there but is there any truth to this? or is it like the no II by thanksgiving more of a SDN-ism

For some fun, how about a soccer analogy?

In the event of a tie, matches end with a penalty shoot out. Statistically, 75-80% of the time the player makes the shot, beating the keeper.*

But that only works for shots within the frame. When the player misses the frame entirely, their odds of making the goal go to zero, no matter how many shots they take.
Interviewing well is a learned skill, so get out in the back yard and start shooting. Metaphorically, that is.

*https://deadspin.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-penalty-shootouts-in-1826959562

 

[WhatsUpPup]

The median number of interviews (3) comes from AAMC Matriculating Student Questionnaire, where the average number of interviews attended by a successful applicant is 3. However, to put this into prospective:
100% apply
60% get rejected (number of interviews unknown)
10% get accepted (single interview, single acceptance)
10% get accepted (multiple interview, single acceptance)
20% get accepted (multiple interviews, multiple acceptance).

Just under half of all matriculants get a single acceptance.

Here is my "model" of estimates: There are 50,000 applicants for 20,000 1st year spots. Last year, there were 816,000 individual AMCAS applications verified and transmitted to schools. So how many total interviews? Lets say that the bottom 20% of applicants (10,000) never get interviewed at all. So 40,000 left in the applicant pool. Of these, 5,000 got a single interview and a single acceptance. (you could probably say another 5,000 got interviewed with no acceptance but lets leave them in the mix for the moment). So of the 35,000 applicants left in the pool at the incredible rate of 5 interviews each would be a 175,000 total interviews. Adding this all together at best, 200,000 applications interview (reality is likely less than half that) over 816,000 applications. With 150+ MD programs, if each gate 1,000 interviews, that would be 150,000 and even that would be too high. The reality is likely is somewhere around 110,000 to 125,000 interviews during the cycle. You could get an actual number if you wanted to add all the MSAR data.

So how many total acceptance were offered during the cycle? 10,000 acceptances go to the 10,000 applicants who get a single acceptance. This would leave 10,000 applicants who each get, lets say, 5 acceptances, again likely way over reality. And yes the number of acceptances goes way over number of actual 1st year seats as schools are always chasing the same students. It is also why there are waitlist/alternates to make sure every seat is filled. So there are are a total of 60,000 acceptances for the 816,000 applications. That would mean a 7% chance of any individual application getting an acceptance with the reality likely being less. This would translate to 1 out every 14 applications is successful. And 14 is about the average number of applications across the applicant pool.

And of course, all this is meaningless other than to show the competition just on sheer volume of applications. But applications dont go to medical school, applicants do. Hence why if you are an applicant with a good/solid academic record, good EC, well written primary/secondary and interview well, you have about 50% chance of getting in

View attachment 240781

View attachment 240782

How does someone matriculate without an interview?

 

[Isoval]

How does someone matriculate without an interview?

 

[854555]

Back during the 2015 cycle, my cousin received 6 IIs, 4 of which were before he attended his first interview. He ended up being a reapplicant.

After he got in last cycle I asked him what he thought the problem was the first time and turns out that he did not think he’d need to prepare for his interviews because he had so many of them and if he had so many of them then he was a golden applicant.

I guess sometimes what seems like a blessing can be a curse in disguise, and what seems like a curse can turn out to be a blessing.

 

[863168]

I really have to wonder at this point.