Acceptance Rate

[ChrisMack390]

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How so?

Random would mean 2 equivalently qualified applicants having the same odds of getting an acceptance. What you are describing is quite different - the apps that are accepted are heavily skewed based on unknown factors.

So while there is "randomness" in the process in the sense that it is unpredictable, that does not mean it makes sense to be adding and multiplying probabilities and such.

 

[libertyyne]

.

Random would mean 2 equivalently qualified applicants having the same odds of getting an acceptance. What you are describing is quite different - the apps that are accepted are heavily skewed based on unknown factors.

So while there is "randomness" in the process in the sense that it is unpredictable, that does not mean it makes sense to be adding and multiplying probabilities and such.

What other methodological approach do you suggest?

 

[ChrisMack390]

.
What other methodological approach do you suggest?

None lol

Maybe reading tea leaves.

 

[libertyyne]

None lol

Maybe reading tea leaves.

I think probabilities can be applied in a powerful way to problems like this, the only problem is the lack of information to create better models. Obviously past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes but in places where there are hundreds of variables that change in their significance and large numbers using probabilities is this is the only way I can think of to make sense of the process and a powerful tool that shouldn't be dismissed without an alternative methodology.

 

[JB50]

That 60% number was new news to me. Wow. Lotsa sad people every year 🙁

 

[ChrisMack390]

in 2015, 41.20% were accepted and 39.26% matriculated as first year medical students.

I hate 1.94 percent of applicants.

 

[LizzyM]

I hate 1.94 percent of applicants.

Yeah, hate them because they couldn't get a visa, couldn't qualify for a loan, needed to defer or not matriculate due to a catastrophic illness or injury, or because they'd proven what they needed to prove but had the good sense not to go forward with a career that was a bad fit.

 

[ChrisMack390]

Yeah, hate them because they couldn't get a visa, couldn't qualify for a loan, needed to defer or not matriculate due to a catastrophic illness or injury, or because they'd proven what they needed to prove but had the good sense not to go forward with a career that was a bad fit.

Alright fine, I don't hate them.

I was really thinking of the ones that post on SDN not wanting to go to schools they got into.

 

[Goro]

Yes, some do! Denial is more than a river in Africa.

Our all-time oldest student was 53.

So this means that some students apply year after year after year after year until they give up? What age is the oldest medical student that you have met?

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

That 60% number was new news to me. Wow. Lotsa sad people every year 🙁

Remember though that multiple adcoms have stated that about half of the applicant pool has no business applying to medical school. Think people with a 2.5 or lower GPA with no SMP or a GPA that low with an MCAT below 20

 

[AnatomyGrey12]

Probably that is a little too absolute. I would say it isnt the out and out wholly academically unqualified who apply but the consistently mediocre. However, you cant simply take a single overall GPA number and dismiss them as trends, traditional, postbacc, SMP, etc, can be involved. Even so, I believe earlier in this thread I came up with a rough stat of over 800,000 individual applications to medical school for 22,000 eventual matriculants. That is 36 applications per seat. So at any individual school, even if you initially screen out 1/2 out from the start, you still 18 applications per filled seat to fully review and evaluate. Hence why the application process is so intense for schools reviewing several thousand applications for a hundred or so matriculants

Just stating what has been stated by multiple adcoms.

 

[lpp06]

Just stating what has been stated by multiple adcoms.

According to https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

~8% of applicants had less than a 10% acceptance rate and ~13% has less than a 10% acceptance rate.

I don't know how to determine the numerical cutoff for determining what is a "throwaway" app - but I don't think it would be much higher than a 10% chance of acceptance.

Although it constitutes a high number of applications - it is certainly not half. There may be anecdotal evidence based on each AdCom's institution that dictates otherwise - but there are variations in both the applicant pool for each school and their perception of an immediately rejected app.

 

[libertyyne]

According to https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

~8% of applicants had less than a 10% acceptance rate and ~13% has less than a 10% acceptance rate.

I don't know how to determine the numerical cutoff for determining what is a "throwaway" app - but I don't think it would be much higher than a 10% chance of acceptance.

Although it constitutes a high number of applications - it is certainly not half. There may be anecdotal evidence based on each AdCom's institution that dictates otherwise - but there are variations in both the applicant pool for each school and their perception of an immediately rejected app.

we are looking at the same data yet I am seeing 17% of apps having less than 11.2 % chance of being accepted. And 54% of apps having a less than 38% chance of acceptance. That is pretty steep when you think about it. Looking at just MCAT scores.

 

[lpp06]

we are looking at the same data yet I am seeing 17% of apps having less than 11.2 % chance of being accepted. And 54% of apps having a less than 38% chance of acceptance. That is pretty steep when you think about it. Looking at just MCAT scores.

I broke down by GPA and MCAT. I don't know where to set a cut off, but at the minimum - a 25% chance should be enough for an app to not be immediately thrown out.