Airplane Fare Policies

[shamthis]

How long does it take for plane fares to hike exponentially?

I know "if you wait 'til the last minute expect a thousand dollar ticket" holds true in most cases, but what constitutes "the last minute"? Specifically I'm seeking a roundie flight to Chicago on 1/22/03 and the fares this week are the same as last week- around $200. I'm expecting some 'important' news from a top-choice this week, and if it's positive news, I will happily spare a few bucks by not going period. Cheap tickets are non-refundable and priceline tickets have a 15 dollar insurace policy for cancellations, but stipulations prohibit frivolous excuses...med school being one of them.

If I wait 'til next Tuesday, 1/14/02, it is reasonable to assume tickets wont hike more than 15-20 bucks from today's rates? Let's presume that the airlines' financial crises will not affect fares. Any experiences similar to mine? I actually called the school to find out when I'll hear from them, and they said this week or at the latest, next.

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[tBw]

There are various price steps, usually 1 week before, 2 weeks before and 3 weeks before being steep ones. If you wait till the 14th to book a ticket for the 22nd I would suspect the price may well *very* steeply increase. The surest way for you to test this is try using expedia to check prices on a flight 8 days from today and see if you get that same $200 fare. If its a 2-week advance fare it won't show up and you'll get a reasonable idea of how much you will pay by waiting. I've made these mistakes many, many times ...

good luck.

 

[TechMan]

$200 ! buy them now. while there is the possibility of the fare going down a little, there is a much greater chance of it going up by a lot, even in 24hrs time.

 

[Random Access]

Depends on how many days before the flight, what airline, how full the flight is, what the season is, what the phase of the moon is, etc.

For example, I was booking a Thanksgiving flight once, maybe in October. I checked the fare on a Sunday and it was around $240. Then I checked it two days later after conferring with parents, and it was $420 for the same flight. Doh!

 

[docuw]

Generally speaking, there is a 14 day window, before which the prices are at their current competitive level. When you are within 14 days until departure, they jack the prices. This assumes all else being the same. This also assumes that you arent buying at their last minute "please fill up the plane" price either. They sometimes give discounted rates a day or two before if they know they cant get the plane filled.

 

[Mutterkuchen]

No one on this forum can predict what will happen. I have waited before and gotten lucky, and I have waited before and gotten screwed. Can you find a flight that is refundable, or at least will give you flight credits?

 

[Random Access]

Originally posted by docuw
Generally speaking, there is a 14 day window, before which the prices are at their current competitive level. When you are within 14 days until departure, they jack the prices. This assumes all else being the same. This also assumes that you arent buying at their last minute "please fill up the plane" price either. They sometimes give discounted rates a day or two before if they know they cant get the plane filled.

Often the low fare airlines (Southwest, JetBlue, AirTran, etc.) don't have the 14 day requirement, although pretty much all the major carriers do in general.