Ya but as someone who was extremely optimistic back then, I can’t deny some bad writings on the wall. The whole competitive programs are still going to favor DOs and it’s just the changing of the governing body turned out to be untrue. I still think it’s a great gig but those of us who were here in 14/15 can look back at the posts and see the nativity. You still aren’t doomed to PC but with the continued opening of schools without additional residencies (in anything subspecialized) we will be.
Ehh, I never thought that favoring DOs meant having no MDs, and I kind of expected that to become less true over time (5-10 yrs out from the merger even if they historically were DO residencies). I did/still do expect (and its not clear yet whether that is the case) that with more DOs applying to competitive ACGME specialties that more of those programs would take DOs, if only by virtue of getting competitive DO apps that would otherwise only exist in the AOA side of ERAS.
I've made posts in the past where I've said that Ortho would be hit hard by the merger, mainly because we had so many DOs going into Ortho and had a ton of AOA spots. Many other specialties (NSG, ENT, Ophtho, Uro, Neuro, PM&R) all had number of spots in the 20s each per year (some were even single digits) in the NMS match, which compared to the 5000-6000 DOs really is a small number of actual DOs going in to those fields to begin with. Only time will tell if things even out for fields in the mid-range like OB and GS that had 100-150 spots each, but the 2018 numbers were reassuring. For Derm, I think that it hurt us, but a lot of those Derm residencies used to pay residents nothing or make them work for free in clinics. It was a predatory environment and easily half of those programs needed to close anyway.
That said, certain things have made me less optimistic in general, but part of that is issues with COCA. School expansion combined with elimination of the placement requirement for schools basically makes establishing GME pointless for schools. In the past, I expected that the placement requirement would force schools to open up more GME or reduce class sizes, but now they just don't have to. By far a placement requirement is the strongest recommendation I have for COCA at this time.
EDIT: Also, I got bored, so I came up with these numbers. The 2019 data that will come out later this month will give us a better idea, but virtually every specialty has seen a decent rise in the
absolute number of DOs going into them, except for a handful of the most competitive surgical subspecialties (ENT, Derm, Ortho, and NSG - most of these were actually stable in 2018 but will likely drop in 2019/2020). Ophtho has stayed relatively stable over the last few years with 20-25 DOs matching annually, including in 2019 despite a huge drop in AOA spots. Uro is impossible to say, because the AUA match data doesn't differentiate between DOs and MDs.
Despite many numbers staying stable though, the percentages of DOs going into those surgical subspecialties have gone down due to the expansion of DOs, but that was going to happen anyways because DO expansion has been out of control, well out of the pace of even OGME specialty expansion.
2014 AOA Spots NRMP/SF Match Total
GAS 30 177 207
EM 270 177 447
FM 880 395 1275
GS 139 44 184
IM 609 444 1053
NSG 16 3 19
NEURO 22 56 78
OBGYN 78 131 209
ORTHO 103 1 104
ENT 19 0 19
PEDS 70 290 360
PSYCH 50 154 204
RADS 34 94 128
OPHTHO 17 ~6(?) ~23? - SF match didn't differentiate between DOs and MDs prior to 2015, but the 2015-2016 numbers were single digits
PM&R 12 111 123
DERM 45 3 48
2018 AOA Spots NRMP/SF Match Total
GAS 20 281 301
EM 172 484 656
FM 807 700 1507
GS 118 83 201
IM 559 875 1434
NSG 10 3 13 (-6)
NEURO 20 91 111
OBGYN 56 156 212
ORTHO 116 5 121
ENT 21 3 24
PEDS 31 403 434
PSYCH 39 251 290
RADS 12 143 155
OPHTHO 9 12 21 (-2?)
PM&R 18 123 141
DERM 41 13 54