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The boom cycles of each field seem to be predicated by shortages. EM is not going to have a shortage anytime soon. This is what the students don't understand.
This is so true. People just hop in those echo chambers and get into their own positive feedback loop.There may be more information, but you still have to be willing to entertain the conclusion(s), even if they aren't palatable.
People love their echo chambers.
And negative feedback loops. Some of us here are guilty. The truth lies somewhere a little closer to SDN than Reddit, though.This is so true. People just hop in those echo chambers and get into their own positive feedback loop.
At this moment I'm not even thinking in terms of the impact on the career and the market.... I'm thinking about how totally piss poor some of my older colleagues practice medicine (sorry. But only some of them). And I don't even mean the fact that they are out of date on their literature. I mean that some of them are just.... Like.... Not exactly *the best* physicians but because of momentum, grandfathering, or just different education standards they are still in emergency medicine while being noticeably less academic and rigorous in their thinking. Again not all of them ... But some of them.
And now I'm left wondering if we are about to get a wave of people 3-4 years from now hitting the market who are just academically not of the quality we need. So much pride was taken around the time that I was in residency that emergency medicine was not going to be the dumb overpaid triage nurses that we had been stigmatized as. We were going to be the people who knew the basics (and intermediates) of everyone else's field better than them and can school them on anything except niche specifics of their fields. Now I'm afraid that we are going to fully live up to the idiots with lyringoscopes stereotype. And I don't think a bunch of people with questionable education centers and below snuff starting characteristics are the wave of the future I want to have replacing my generation eventually.
Years?? Pffh.How many years away are you from being piss poor?
Was born piss poorHow many years away are you from being piss poor?
See. You get itYears?? Pffh.
I think the difference is that we have experience. Some negative feedback loops but i can tell you what 10-15 EDs around me pay.. Who is hiring etc. those folks have no clue others than bad data given to them by others. On here IMO is the doom and gloom of the future. Some of us on here are burnt out. Some hate our jobs but we have real life data points. I have a solid gig. I still like coming to work. The failure of many to realize the strain the job will take on them is sad. I planned against burn out from before residency. I got lucky but man there is major pain at times with my job which I would argue is a rare exception in this craptastic job landscape. That being said i think my hospital leadership is bad, holds are bad our consultants are often painful especially to those who havent been around a while.And negative feedback loops. Some of us here are guilty. The truth lies somewhere a little closer to SDN than Reddit, though.
"Poco ma non troppo" means "a little, but not too much" in Italian. I got it from an opera. It's not a line, but from the music.
The gap has been filled with lower-quality candidates for whom EM is now an achievable specialty since it's no longer desirable by top-tier high-achieving medical students. Of course, nobody involved in EM (especially EM training) is going to say this publicly with their name attached.
The cynic in me thinks this is what "the system" wants since it'll be a steady stream of warm bodies to fill an ever-growing CMG footprint. A swarm of indebted EM graduates who are easily exploited and gaslit into high-stress and high-burnout clinical careers.
Two outcomes I see in the near future (3-5 years): Heavy downward pressure on wages AND an extremely competitive fellowship environment for subspecialties that allow one to escape the ED (e.g CCM, pain, HPM, etc.)
Not just a steady stream of warm bodies, but a steady stream of warm bodies that would otherwise be making ≈$30,000 a year in their home country and will be thrilled to make $125 / hour in the US
And yet people still believe choosing this specialty is a good idea. Delusional.So if you look at the most recent match figures:
The number of total MD applicants has plummeted 40% while the number of total IMG applicants has skyrocketed 40% in the past 4 years.
Basically US docs are being replaced with IMG docs looking for a residency spot to work in the United States.
There was an Italian social worker who told me after I'd found it out when I lived in New York. She was a native speaker. She'd seen it that way, which was good enough for me.It's been a while since I've touched a musical instrument, but I can't say I've ever seen it that way. I think "poco" needs to modify something. I've seen "allegro ma non troppo" meaning allegro, but not too allegro, but while poco is presumably modifying "more" as in poco piu ma non troppo, it is implied and not actually modifying anything in your sentence.
**musical theater nerd exits stage right**
I think you two hit the nail on the head. Assuming this trend does not reverse, we will hit a point where wages will stagnate or have downward pressure on them because 1) Increased supply to demand ratio (even if the ratio is still in our favor for a few more years, altering the ratio will have significant impacts) and 2) a "supply" of newly minted grads and IMG's who see the depressed wages and still think "holy f***, that's 3x (or 5x or 10x) what I make here in [home country] so it's still work it to me! I was a long shot before, but with all these openings, yeah, the calculus is still in my favor at $100/hr!".
The $5MM question though is how do we (established attendings) market ourselves to be worth the extra $$$ we currently command, and not tumble down with them?
So if you look at the most recent match figures:
The number of total MD applicants has plummeted 40% while the number of total IMG applicants has skyrocketed 40% in the past 4 years.
Basically US docs are being replaced with IMG docs looking for a residency spot to work in the United States.
I was hoping that the fly-by-night for-profit programs would remain unfilled and go to the chopping block (if only because no residents = less $$$ for the CMG that owns them). Instead, people thought it was a buyers' market for applicants and rushed into them.And yet people still believe choosing this specialty is a good idea. Delusion
I'm sure it makes more sense if you are a native speaker and can pick up on context clues. The old orchestral conductor in me would have to do more research on the piece the first time I saw it if there were more than one direction in the vicinity of it. I'm imagining myself sitting at my desk thinking "poco ma non troppo... poco WHAT? poco forte? (get a bit louder, but not too loud)? poco accelerando? (speed up, but not too fast!)"There was an Italian social worker who told me after I'd found it out when I lived in New York. She was a native speaker. She'd seen it that way, which was good enough for me.
I foresee EM being stratified into three tiers going forward.It's actually really sad what's happened to our field.
Yup. You've said exactly what I said, but more articulately and with more years of experience to back it up.My prediction for how this will play out comes down to geography. IMGs and low-achieving/low-capability EM graduates will have no choice but to take jobs in incredibly undesirable locations.
The "tiers" of EM will end up being divided along those lines. High-achieving and high-capability will be able to maintain jobs in Denver, SF, Seattle, etc., (we can define capability here in a lot of ways -- ultimately this comes down to what the system values and incentivizes)
Pay will necessarily have to decrease for everybody, and you hit on another grim reality of the future. We will continue to become our own enemies, and pay will be split among a ruling class of admin EM docs who can claw themselves up the ladder to positions where they can exploit grads for their own benefit.
"The pendulum is swinging back!" - Residency Directors
"EM is great again" - Naive medical students
"Yes, yes, more, more" - CMG leadership
2 IMGs from pakistan matched into my 40+ year old program.
I mean win for my fellow pakistanis - but this specialty is now the bottom of the barrel competitiveness officially.
So if you look at the most recent match figures:
The number of total MD applicants has plummeted 40% while the number of total IMG applicants has skyrocketed 40% in the past 4 years.
Basically US docs are being replaced with non US docs looking for a residency spot here in the United States.
Here's the unbelievable thing about HCAs: their residents tend to be US-educated. Mostly DOs, but you'll find the odd US MD in the mix. Meanwhile, there are some good EM residencies (places that have been around for decades, have in-house fellowships, have great alumni networks, are level 1 trauma certified) that are 50% IMGs this year.so officially 137 (idk where the other two not accounted for on reddit came from).
I noticed some really good (but not great) programs had openings - i guess they didnt adjust interviewing.
but more concerning some REALLY REALLY ****ing suck ass programs that I know about filled 100%. Which is terrifying. Well known name brand programs have openings but HCA bumble**** community hospital filled its 5 residents per year???? THey adjusted *very* well and we will suffer for it.
Probably worse based on N=1 experience.EM is the new FM
IMGs have been duped
They may have booted people out.
Harvard with open spots? people just fed up with working in the hospital armpit or what
One of our PGY3 family practice rotators is graduating this year.EM is the new FM
IMGs have been duped
Ya this was predictable. Programs still fill, quality of applicants goes down, next the pay will drop more. EM is in the ****ter, sorry dudes this sucks ass. For those in residency, consider your fellowship options, but be careful, critical care is next.
People quit from the BWH and MGH programs with some frequency. I've spoken with several people that trained at either program and they have all said that on average, at least one person drops out of each class during training. Frequently it's to go into business or switch specialties. One time it was to go be an astronaut. I haven't heard about anyone getting booted out. That said, those programs do seem to select for people that don't actually want to be an ER doc. The want to use the pedigree to go be something else.They may have booted people out.
You don't think EM is complicated!Critical care next? Tell me more...
I know the field is full of midlevels, and it's hospital-based, but it seems too complex and too high risk to let in a bunch of under-qualified candidates.
Also what about the variety of post-operative patients that need ICU-level care, and depend on CCU/TICU docs to manage since they're all busy operating?
Institutional outcomes and metrics also depend on a lot of (actual) high-quality critical care being practiced.
I'm very interested in whether critical care is at risk of going down the same path since it appears many EM residents are choosing to train in the subspecialty as a way to escape the perils of EM...
Very interesting hypothesis!
Critical care next? Tell me more...
I know the field is full of midlevels, and it's hospital-based, but it seems too complex and too high risk to let in a bunch of under-qualified candidates.
Also what about the variety of post-operative patients that need ICU-level care, and depend on CCU/TICU docs to manage since they're all busy operating?
Critical care next? Tell me more...
I know the field is full of midlevels, and it's hospital-based, but it seems too complex and too high risk to let in a bunch of under-qualified candidates.
Also what about the variety of post-operative patients that need ICU-level care, and depend on CCU/TICU docs to manage since they're all busy operating?
Institutional outcomes and metrics also depend on a lot of (actual) high-quality critical care being practiced.
I'm very interested in whether critical care is at risk of going down the same path since it appears many EM residents are choosing to train in the subspecialty as a way to escape the perils of EM...
Very interesting hypothesis!
One of the PCCM doc was complaining the other day about job availability for intensivist where I work. He does not think midlevels are the issues. He actually thinks open ICU in most community hospital where hospitalists are managing a bunch of these patients is the issue.Critical care next? Tell me more...
I know the field is full of midlevels, and it's hospital-based, but it seems too complex and too high risk to let in a bunch of under-qualified candidates.
Also what about the variety of post-operative patients that need ICU-level care, and depend on CCU/TICU docs to manage since they're all busy operating?
Institutional outcomes and metrics also depend on a lot of (actual) high-quality critical care being practiced.
I'm very interested in whether critical care is at risk of going down the same path since it appears many EM residents are choosing to train in the subspecialty as a way to escape the perils of EM...
Very interesting hypothesis!
I just told my wife about this. She literally started yelling what the f***, punctuated by a few moments of silence, followed by more "what the f***!"Heh don't worry PE backed companies have started to come for ICUs too since COVID.
Sound has an entire Tele-ICU with NPs service they've been marketing to community hospitals.
Link: Critical to care: Telemedicine continues to bridge gaps in ICUs across the U.S. | Sound Physicians
I just got a N =2EM is the new FM
IMGs have been duped
Holy ****Heh don't worry PE backed companies have started to come for ICUs too since COVID.
Sound has an entire Tele-ICU with NPs service they've been marketing to community hospitals.
Link: Critical to care: Telemedicine continues to bridge gaps in ICUs across the U.S. | Sound Physicians
I just got a N =2
This person graduated in 2017 (I graduated in 2018). We were acquaintance as we were living in the same apartment complex and we used to carpool sometimes. His issue was he could not pass CS because his typing was horrible. He did pass step 1/2CK with no issue.
He matched a VERY good university program in NYC this year. I just don't want to say the name of the program. He was not out of medicine completely as he was practicing as an AP (Associate Physician) in Missouri for the last 2+ yrs.
I have a feeling that programs are starting to be weary of IMG from Asia because of the USMLE cheating scandal and are taking more chances on US students and IMG (not FMG) with some blemish on their applications.
For instance, my hospital has a small IM program and the other day I was talking to the PD about the USMLE cheating scandal. He told me there were 2 applicants they interviewed and they were very suspicious about them. These 2 applicants transcripts have multiple failure while both score 260+ in all the steps. Needless to say that they did not rank them.
Also, one of my best friends SOAPED into FM after multiple failures in CS/CK and step 3. He is an IMG from a Caribbean school.
the ... what?
USMLE Finds Pattern of Suspicious Results From Nepal
Impacted examinees have had step 1, 2, and/or 3 examinations invalidatedwww.medpagetoday.com
Judge Won't Overturn Invalidated USMLE Scores
Court documents reveal medical graduates from Nepal outperformed every country in the world on the USMLE and that examinee volume at Nepal's single test center tripled.www.medscape.com
we pretty much have mid levels (in radiology) doing only simple procedures, like lp, thoras, arthrograms etcYou don't think EM is complicated!
Radiology arguably is one of the most complex non surgical specialities is starting to get infiltrated by midlevels according to thread in the rad forum.
You think these people with the help of admins will stop!
There is a nurse in the step-down floor who just finished his online NP and he already got hired to work in our ED. I don't want be mean here by saying he is not a stellar RN. Our PD did not want to even hire him to do hospital medicine.
Every non surgical specialty except for pathology is fair game.
I 2nd that. I was a radiology resident once and we had Rad Techs w/ masters degrees who worked as RPAs and they did some procedures but I never saw them dictate any studies. But as with other non-radiologists like GI, Cards, Vasc, non-MDs also generated their own reports like podiatrists, dentists, speech pathologists...we pretty much have mid levels (in radiology) doing only simple procedures, like lp, thoras, arthrograms etc
we pretty much have mid levels (in radiology) doing only simple procedures, like lp, thoras, arthrograms etc
Whaaaat?!I know a surgical PA who is moonlighting doing prelim reads on neuro MRIs
I’d put cash the open spots are either:
Harvard with open spots? people just fed up with working in the hospital armpit or what
Whaaaat?!
I know some great surgical PAs, great use for PAs if they have an establish program with support, training, etc.
But they don’t know the ass end of a Neuro MRI from a hole in the ground. Hell, I consider myself a very excellent ED Doc-Radiologist, and MR skills are very primitive.