Well considering we're taught to pay attention to the stats as we prepare for application season, go into interview season, and then prepare for rankings, etc. you are not doing anything wrong. In fact none of us are. We are told "this is what the stats say, plan accordingly."
However this year, none of those algorithms that our field normally relies on are going to be applicable because there are way too many other factors. I have learned some really interesting things from TDs and DCTs in my network that may be helpful for others here:
1) Phase 1 is largely a fight for candidates that everyone deems to be top candidates, as in the very top. That doesn't mean that everyone else is not qualified, just that we cannot all be at the very top.
2) If Phase 1 results in not matching, regardless of why/how/who cares, everyone in this situation should proceed to Phase 2. The extra factors making this season weird are being predicted to make Phase 2 weird as well, so anyone who ends up there should view it as just a part of the process and not a personal failure or an indication of poor qualifications. Between the extra factors and not every site can have the top candidate they ranked, it is really just round 1 and that is all. This might be why we all pay for Phase 2 as part of our Phase 1 fees and something that is free and could be a good thing should not be turned down.
3) Anyone who proceeds to Phase 2 should absolutely include sites from Phase 1 that they did not receive an interview invitation at and/or did not match at if they are available choices in addition to other sites that are of interest.
4) Preparation for a possible Phase 2 should start now, especially for anyone who has few interviews. At the very least a CV update, progress on dissertation are helpful, and a review of how cover letters were structured are all helpful. Apparently in Phase 2 it is not abnormal to be asked what is new since Phase 1 and if reapplying to any sites a revised cover letter is a good idea. Redoing the essays is not required, but there is nothing wrong with giving them another review for minor changes or getting another opinion on them if that is desired.