Back to basics WW again

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But basically, everybody on Jil at that point is an unknown from AM afterwards:

.... Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

I think I'd lean more heavily on saying there's likely 1-2 wolves hiding in there than the way @WildZoo is interpreting it.
 
LetItSnow said:
Hm. I'm not so entirely sure I agree with that to the level of saying "almost certain".

Wolves were down 1 (raf) at that point.

Jil (2) is the other wolf being voted on, and she's on the Zen (3) vote.

The other vote (Jil) has AM (4).

There's probably 6 total wolves - the question is where it's 4+2, 5+1, or 6+0. That leaves at most (?) two wolves hiding in the Zen/Jil vote. Here's the vote again:

Official lynch tally d3:
abnerrs 1 - DVMD
finn -
Zen 12 - trilt, Pippy, LIS, Dr. S, nessy, WZ, SAR, mmm, ally, Ski, Jil, Finn
Jil 8 - snowshoe, AM, Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia

Judging by the D2 lynch the wolves had already decided Jil was going down and it was just a matter of when, so I can easily see the remaining 0/1/2 wolves sitting on Jil as I can Zen.

D3 lynch was 21/22 players ... I'm not sure who the not-voting person was. We don't have 'ongoing' rosters, and I'm just not feeling energetic enough to go figure out who the non-voter was. But the non-voting player also could be a wolf; can't ignore that.

So I guess my question is: Why do you say "almost certain"? That seems like a pretty big overreach to me.
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Hey, I said almost! 😛 I think I just didn't completely do the math on this one like you did/was assuming 6 wolves. Zen didn't vote that day. So that's two wolves hidden among the voters (in my mind) and I just figured they would be more likely to go 2-2 on the vote than 3-1.

But, I can see scenarios where the remaining wolves were on Jil, which is why I said almost. Maybe I shouldn't have said certain?
 
WildZoo said:
Hey, I said almost! 😛 I think I just didn't completely do the math on this one like you did/was assuming 6 wolves. Zen didn't vote that day. So that's two wolves hidden among the voters (in my mind) and I just figured they would be more likely to go 2-2 on the vote than 3-1.

But, I can see scenarios where the remaining wolves were on Jil, which is why I said almost. Maybe I shouldn't have said certain?
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The reason I'm less certain is because in my mind I think they've already given up on Jil at that point (D3). So if I/you/we accept there were 0-1-2 wolves left voting at that point ... I don't see a reason to think they are on Zen moreso than Jil. I can just as easily see them on Jil because hey, it might give them credibility if/when they keep voting for Jil down the road.

Of the group on D3 after AM that voted for Jil (Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia), they all voted for Jil again on D4 except KC and Cyndia, but I'm not sure much can be made of that since it ended in plurality when Jil lynched herself.

I dunno. I'm not outright refuting what you argued. I'm more saying that it doesn't quite make as much sense to me.

I'm seriously considering a Cyndia vote.
 
WildZoo said:
And to be fair my current most wolfy suspects (Abs, confusing, coop) are all on the Jil lynch anyway.
Click to expand...

I have a feeling I have blinders on with regard to Abs. I came out against her a little bit early in the game, and she got all huffy with me, and I re-evaluated and decided she wasn't wolfy ... and I'm thinking it's giving me some bias. All the rest of you seem to have her on your "at least a little sketchy" list.
 
 
LetItSnow said:
Of the group on D3 after AM that voted for Jil (Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia), they all voted for Jil again on D4 except KC and Cyndia, but I'm not sure much can be made of that since it ended in plurality when Jil lynched herself.
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Fyi, I was planning to vote jil and had said that earlier in the day - I was just waiting to avoid plurality and missed it since I checked in right before 9.
 
LetItSnow said:
The reason I'm less certain is because in my mind I think they've already given up on Jil at that point (D3). So if I/you/we accept there were 0-1-2 wolves left voting at that point ... I don't see a reason to think they are on Zen moreso than Jil. I can just as easily see them on Jil because hey, it might give them credibility if/when they keep voting for Jil down the road.

Of the group on D3 after AM that voted for Jil (Abnerrs, kc, serher, confusing, Coopah, Cyndia), they all voted for Jil again on D4 except KC and Cyndia, but I'm not sure much can be made of that since it ended in plurality when Jil lynched herself.

I dunno. I'm not outright refuting what you argued. I'm more saying that it doesn't quite make as much sense to me.

I'm seriously considering a Cyndia vote.
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That's fair, but I'm looking at the fact that from d2 to d3 the momentum shifted a bit from Jil to Zen, based on how they defended themselves. A few people who I think are villagers (plus myself) switched from voting Jil d2 to voting Zen d3. So it stands to reason to me that one of the wolves that wasn't in the spotlight decided to vote for her as well.

In the back of my head I'm thinking of what makes me uncomfortable as a wolf, and voting all in a row on Jil would make me extremely uncomfortable. So that is probably coloring how I'm interpreting it.

LetItSnow said:
I have a feeling I have blinders on with regard to Abs. I came out against her a little bit early in the game, and she got all huffy with me, and I re-evaluated and decided she wasn't wolfy ... and I'm thinking it's giving me some bias. All the rest of you seem to have her on your "at least a little sketchy" list.
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If you can put my mind at ease about her that would be great. I've just felt for a while that she was going to be a question mark for me and I would rather answer that question now than later on. If raf and AM were intentionally trying to get her lynched then I guess I'm playing into their hands. Wouldn't be the first time I've done that 😛
 
WildZoo said:
If you can put my mind at ease about her that would be great. I've just felt for a while that she was going to be a question mark for me and I would rather answer that question now than later on. If raf and AM were intentionally trying to get her lynched then I guess I'm playing into their hands. Wouldn't be the first time I've done that 😛
Click to expand...

Well. You know my play style. If there is enough concern over a player, my argument is always "let's just answer the question and move on."
 
LetItSnow said:
I mean, DVMD I can live with on ignore, but some people I like to see their posts in other threads... 🙂
Click to expand...

*****************
Creates new account, taunts LIS. 😉















(In reality, that is way too much work, I'm more likely to just shrug and go to bed.)
******************
 
Ugh, on mobile this thread is 191 pages. I'm at work on a quick lunch break so don't really have time to tackle a full re-read right now.

I'm really torn on where to head next, but I think I'll probably be leaning towards an ally vote to follow up on the wishes of deceased nessie. (And also based on all the sketch feels I got from ally when I re-read days 2-3).

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
Cyndia said:
Fyi, I was planning to vote jil and had said that earlier in the day - I was just waiting to avoid plurality and missed it since I checked in right before 9.
Click to expand...

Ok. But pretty much EVERYONE was planning to vote Jil. I'm not sure that it matters.
 
I would like to hear more from @allyphoe before placing my lynch vote. She has been pretty quiet since nessy flipped village, which strikes me as a bit sketchy because I'm sure she knew her name was going to come up if nessy did indeed flip village
 
finnickthedog said:
You told me yesterday (or at least implied) that you reached the same conclusion I did. Now you're telling me you didn't reach a conclusion at all.
Click to expand...

We both reached the same conclusion: kc doesn't strike either of us as particularly wolfy.

You reached it based on the belief that she was actually blocked; I reached it despite there being no way for me to determine whether she was blocked.

So why do you think she was blocked, when the only evidence for it on thread is a claim made by a wolf? Wolves would know for sure. Role-y villagers might know, if they happened to attempt an action on her N1 or if they had a PM channel that info was being passed through, but presumably you aren't hinting at a role over something this minor. Or you're a villager who is attempting to hunt wolves by believing what they say, which is even more ridiculous.
 
serher said:
I would like to hear more from @allyphoe before placing my lynch vote. She has been pretty quiet since nessy flipped village, which strikes me as a bit sketchy because I'm sure she knew her name was going to come up if nessy did indeed flip village
Click to expand...
There's not really any great defense to being wrong. I thought I was going to be right, and I was wrong.

Game-related reasons for being quiet: heck if I know who to lynch today. Probably finn, who's been on my list for a while, but I want to take a little more time to think about whether I think she's suspicious just because she thinks I'm suspicious.

Life-related: 13.5 hours on a school bus full of 15yos yesterday. Long work day today to make up for being gone yesterday.
 
***********************************************

allyphoe said:
Life-related: 13.5 hours on a school bus full of 15yos yesterday. Long work day today to make up for being gone yesterday.
Click to expand...

This sounds terrible

************************************************


Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
WildZoo said:
And to be fair my current most wolfy suspects (Abs, confusing, coop) are all on the Jil lynch anyway.
Click to expand...

I haven't been paying too much attention to coop, do you mind explaining why you find them suspicious? I'm sick and headachy and rereading is just not processing for me right now. 🤢 I'm still thinking of voting abs, but I really need to think over some of the players I've been overlooking a little first.
 
allyphoe said:
We both reached the same conclusion: kc doesn't strike either of us as particularly wolfy.

You reached it based on the belief that she was actually blocked; I reached it despite there being no way for me to determine whether she was blocked.

So why do you think she was blocked, when the only evidence for it on thread is a claim made by a wolf? Wolves would know for sure. Role-y villagers might know, if they happened to attempt an action on her N1 or if they had a PM channel that info was being passed through, but presumably you aren't hinting at a role over something this minor. Or you're a villager who is attempting to hunt wolves by believing what they say, which is even more ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Maybe you're telling the truth, but it doesn't feel like it to me. Partly because it took you so long to respond and in your initial responses you kind of skirted around the question that I was asking. Partly because you're still interrogating me over something ridiculous.

There is not way to determine whether she was actually blocked. I never claimed to know for sure. I believe that she was actually blocked but as with most other things it comes down to some guesswork. I'm almost certain that whatever factors you used to decide KC wasn't wolfy involved some guessing as well. Why are you acting like I said I knew for sure?

Why do I think she was actually blocked? Because sometimes hoofbeats are just horses and currently I see no reason to think zebras. Plus, if KC were covering for a block on STL she probably would have just confirmed being blocked instead of being cagey about it. Why is it such a problem to you that in this particular case I decided the simplest explanation is the most likely?

I'm certainly not adamant that what I believe is the only possible answer. I already stated before you jumped on me that I would look at KC again if people thought there were reasons to find her wolfy. In which case then I would have to think about the other possible explanations such as Zen lying about who she blocked or even the wolves choosing to block one of their own. I never denied those as possibilities. But why should I jump to those conclusions or even have to entertain them as equally likely when KC isn't acting sketch?

This explanation doesn't resolve any of the sketchiness I'm feeling from you so I'm sticking with my vote on you today.

lynch ally
 
I don't remember who asked about this and I can't seem find the quote but in regards to Cyndia, I looked back at some of her posts yesterday and wasn't feeling a lot either way. But I mostly just looked at her posts and though I skimmed for context I didn't do a whole lot of reading what was posted around them so I will probably look again.
 
So I'm going with

Lynch Ally

but Cyndia is close on my watch list, I've got almost no info on her so I'm thinking tomorrow.
 
Ally- I find it weird that she says that she doesn’t think KC is sketchy but in her theories she says that it’s possible KC is a wolf covering for a block on STL.
 
I guess I was expecting some more explanation from you ally. Defending your game play and votes since that is what has been in question for me. Being wrong is inevitable in this game. It's not an excuse to not defend yourself in my opinion.
 
KC- I don’t really find her too sketchy for not wanting to say if she was blocked or not (or alerted/not alerted if she was blocked).
 
Abs- The helpful villager part of raf’s vouch gets me because up until that point abs hadn’t been posting much of anything helpful. She had posted her suspicions after being badgered by LIS, but before that it had just been the more jokey posts. It could be a wolf vouching for a wolf or a wolf vouching for a villager to try and gain some credibility, but the fact that abs hadnt had much in the way of ocntent/helpful posts up until then, still makes me double take
 
************************

PippyPony said:
***********************************************
This sounds terrible
************************************************
Click to expand...

It was mostly orchestra kids, and they are good kids. It was just long and boring and noisy and long. Also, we had lunch at 10:45am, then dinner at 8pm.

Today, OTOH, has been terrible. My kid can't get a state-issued ID until she goes in person to the Social Security office, because despite the fact that her birth certificate, Social Security card, and passport all show the same correct name, the DMV computers say her name doesn't match SSA records. This was discovered incidental to the discovery that both my and my wife's Social Security cards are missing (we've checked all three safe deposit boxes they could ever have been in, plus the house lockbox). Also, my in-laws moved my wife's naturalization paperwork, which is entirely irreplaceable, out of the safe deposit box and into some random lockbox in their closet that we didn't even know existed, without saying anything about it, "because a tornado might destroy the bank." Also also, my MIL just appeared with my SS card, which she found stuffed in a random box of their old receipts and crap. Wife's, which is the one we need because her employer has randomly decided to do new I-9s for everyone, is still missing. Also also also, our teenager is behaving EXTREMELY age-appropriately.
**********************
 
I read allys posts and I'm not really getting too much of a red flag from them, but I also feel like crap so I might be missing something. So I'm going to stick with my gut/reasoning from earlier and go with *****lynch abney*****
 
Anybody have a tally? I don't want to throw another vote on ally without knowing how many she has. I was hoping to hear more from her and Abs before voting but that might not happen
 
HowConfusing said:
Lynch abnerrs

If ally is lynched tonight though and flips villager, probably leaning toward a finn vote tomorrow.
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I don't know that me being village tells you much about finn, any more than nessie being village tells you much about me. Villagers get it wrong more than right, even when winning.
 
mmm- not too much analysis/thoughts from her, especially in the past couple (real)days. Says allys voting is interesting because she switched off Jil and voted Zen and then went back to Jil the next day, when she wasn't the only one to do that. Her "SO MUCH UGH ABOUT TRILT" also strikes me as weird. Seems a bit forced, but maybe not.
 
SkiOtter said:
mmm- not too much analysis/thoughts from her, especially in the past couple (real)days. Says allys voting is interesting because she switched off Jil and voted Zen and then went back to Jil the next day, when she wasn't the only one to do that. Her "SO MUCH UGH ABOUT TRILT" also strikes me as weird. Seems a bit forced, but maybe not.
Click to expand...
I didn't say so much ugh about Trilt. I said it made sense she was annoyed we were all following her lead after she was revealed to be the seer.
 
serher said:
Anybody have a tally? I don't want to throw another vote on ally without knowing how many she has. I was hoping to hear more from her and Abs before voting but that might not happen
Click to expand...
I'm here. Anything in particular you want to hear? Of my 4 top suspicions the other day, one was wolf, two were village, and one was finn, who will get my vote tonight. I'm a vanillager, so good for numbers and for arguing, but not a huge loss. I was hopeful that my vote analysis would be useful, but it's hard to find patterns when you have so many wolves go down so hard and fast.

If you're a fan of "if I were a wolf, I'd never" arguments, having loud fights with people who then die village is not a good way to avoid being lynched. 🙂
 
SkiOtter said:
mmm- not too much analysis/thoughts from her, especially in the past couple (real)days. Says allys voting is interesting because she switched off Jil and voted Zen and then went back to Jil the next day, when she wasn't the only one to do that. Her "SO MUCH UGH ABOUT TRILT" also strikes me as weird. Seems a bit forced, but maybe not.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree that 3M is sketch. I'm not sure why so many people had her as villager earlier on?

I didn't like her response when I pushed her a little for some analysis yesterday, and I didn't like her vote s yesterday or today (feels a little like band wagoning).

Ok I just convinced myself - gonna go with some gut feeling today.

****************Lynch mmmdreamrs**************

Sent from my Nexus 5X using SDN mobile
 
***** lynch finn ******

Voting for the person I feel is wolfiest, not for the person whose death is most likely to keep me alive.
 
lynch ally

@allyphoe the whole thing with Trilt being concerned about you before being killed, the arguments with nessy, and voting record (was tied with confusing with the most "wolfy" ticks in my book) is a little too much to ignore. I don't feel confident but I have to stick with my gut on this one. I'm sorry if I'm wrong. I don't have any particular questions for you unfortunately
 
My suspicions for Abs have been growing up until this point, but I really want to hear from her before placing my vote there. I don't think we have heard from her today. Can't remember. So I would rather come back to her tomorrow
 
lynch ally

I don't like how you're not really defending yourself all that well. You claim vanillager and basically are saying "im just here for numbers, if I'm lynched oh well" which is one of the main things I lynched nessie for saying. She ended up being vanillager, but I still don't like it when people say that it doesn't matter if theyre lynched.
Also, no self preservation vote is kinda :eyebrow:
 
I'll have to revisit 3m.

I did notice while I was looking at someone else's past posts that 3m tried to ask SAR a question after she died. Certainly could have been an intentional wolf move but with 3m being a fairly new player I doubt it. So I'm inclined to think she either genuinely forgot SAR was dead or just didn't bother to look at who she was quoting. If it's the latter that doesn't really say anything about her affiliation, but if she actually forgot SAR died that seems more likely to be a villager mistake than a wolf one.

But, I don't remember much else about 3m and the above is a small thing.
 
Unofficial Lynch Tally
Abs (3)- WZ, confusing, Cyndia
Ally (5)- finny, mdreamz, coop, serher, ski
Cyndia (1)- LIS
mdreamz (1)- pippy
finny (1)- ally

total votes- 11/13
 
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